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Bifauxnen
Aug 12, 2010

Curses! Foiled again!



Riiiight. Beet then proceeds to not actually say much about TOML at all.

I am looking forward to seeing you weigh in more on me and FS, but I sure hope you don't forget to look at TOML and b_t in the meantime. Despite your leading spot in the postcounts, I don't see you actually looking at a whole lot else besides me yet. Get it out of your system if you need to, but you better start some prep work on those two cases next for after my flip.

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Milkfred E. Moore
Aug 27, 2006

'It's easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism.'

black_tangled posted:

OK, speculating on the number of teams is not helpful, I will stop :)


Really? DJ BBQ seemed like a clear "we got nothing better" situation and Bif started the ball on FS just to spark a discussion and then instantly retracted it.

Argh, I have no time to post this morning and going into a lunch meeting now.

We keep swapping off people and hitting townies, right? Wonder why that is.

Bifauxnen
Aug 12, 2010

Curses! Foiled again!


Maybe I should get a vote in earlier today instead of playing wait-and-see too long.

##vote black_tangled

How's that for a vote to follow without doing much of anything, BBQ? You want in on this one?

Small Keating
Dec 24, 2012

That you, Jim? Paul Keating here. Just because you swallowed a fucking dictionary when you were about 15 doesn't give you the right to pour a bucket of shit over the rest of us.
Having a look at ODC's post history, since this is the first scum reveal we've had all game.

D1, jumps on the Anidav bandwagon. Lots of noise posting, joke votes for hidden movement and Coq, pushes for Coq overall but becomes interested in FS later, before jumping on the WFD bandwagon late. He is then killed in a clusterfuck (TBH, I don't really understand what happened).

Overall, working hard to stay under the radar under the guise of being new to the game. I wonder if we have more newbie scum in the mix?

Small Keating
Dec 24, 2012

That you, Jim? Paul Keating here. Just because you swallowed a fucking dictionary when you were about 15 doesn't give you the right to pour a bucket of shit over the rest of us.

Those On My Left posted:

Yeah, I'm similarly a bit clueless at this point.

Here are the currently living posters with their post rates. I was going to do more of an effort post but have some work to do atm.

Bifauxnen
49 posts (2nd highest post rate)

black_tangled
42 posts (4th highest post rate)

dj-bbq
14 posts (lowest post rate)

Freudian Slip
30 posts (equal 6th highest post rate)

Gwynplaine
28 posts (7th highest post rate)

hiddenmovement
19 posts (equal 2nd lowest post rate)

Matthew Beet
79 posts (highest post rate)

Milky Moor
22 posts (3rd lowest post rate)

Small Keating
19 posts (equal 2nd lowest post rate)

Splode
43 posts (3rd highest post rate)

Those On My Left
35 posts (5th highest post rate)

Tirade
30 posts (equal 6th highest post rate)

DJ-BBQ, Gwynplaine, hidden movement, what have you got to say for yourselves?

FauxR34L
Feb 27, 2005
Serious Business

Small Keating posted:

DJ-BBQ, Gwynplaine, hidden movement, what have you got to say for yourselves?

Im trying for quality over quantity? :shrug:

Small Keating
Dec 24, 2012

That you, Jim? Paul Keating here. Just because you swallowed a fucking dictionary when you were about 15 doesn't give you the right to pour a bucket of shit over the rest of us.

dj-bbq posted:

Im trying for quality over quantity? :shrug:

Bloody hell. I've just had a look at DJ-WTFROFLBBQ's post history (zero effort posts, a bit of noise, some bandwagoning, low profile all the while) and not get PTSD flashbacks to Cumburglar's.

##vote dj-bbq

Small Keating
Dec 24, 2012

That you, Jim? Paul Keating here. Just because you swallowed a fucking dictionary when you were about 15 doesn't give you the right to pour a bucket of shit over the rest of us.
Err, that should read

*and I challenge anyone to look at it and not get PTSD flashbacks to Cumburglar's

Bifauxnen
Aug 12, 2010

Curses! Foiled again!


dj-bbq posted:

Im trying for quality over quantity? :shrug:

I see you're going with the beloved Harold Krell strategy. This is just lazy trolling. Are you trying to bait us away from scum with better roles than you?

Bifauxnen
Aug 12, 2010

Curses! Foiled again!


Small Keating posted:

Bloody hell. I've just had a look at DJ-WTFROFLBBQ's post history (zero effort posts, a bit of noise, some bandwagoning, low profile all the while) and not get PTSD flashbacks to Cumburglar's.

##vote dj-bbq

Oh I agree fully that he's scum, but I think he's useless scum. He's trying to stall and give the others time and let them throw him under the bus.

Milkfred E. Moore
Aug 27, 2006

'It's easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism.'

Bifauxnen posted:

Oh I agree fully that he's scum, but I think he's useless scum. He's trying to stall and give the others time and let them throw him under the bus.

Scum is scum.

##vote dj_bbq

Milkfred E. Moore
Aug 27, 2006

'It's easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism.'
I mean

##unvote

##vote dj-bbq

FauxR34L
Feb 27, 2005
Serious Business

Bifauxnen posted:

Oh I agree fully that he's scum, but I think he's useless scum. He's trying to stall and give the others time and let them throw him under the bus.

Not at all, i just really haven't been able to get into the swing of this game. I even missed my first night action due to IRL issues.

As for my current thoughts or suspicions, TOML is giving me the 'casual interjection and misdirection' vibe, on top of this mornings:

Those On My Left posted:

A bloodbath.

Looks like I was wrong about Dinner. Sorry folks.

and

Those On My Left posted:

Still tipping the presence of a paranoid gun owner.

Spreading some FUD, I don't think this enough for me to vote for though

FauxR34L
Feb 27, 2005
Serious Business

Tirade posted:

##vote dj-bbq

I think FS is likely clean but will need to properly re-read yesterday's posts.

Hell, given coq's town flip I'll probably need to start reading the thread again from scratch.

Small Keating posted:

Bloody hell. I've just had a look at DJ-WTFROFLBBQ's post history (zero effort posts, a bit of noise, some bandwagoning, low profile all the while) and not get PTSD flashbacks to Cumburglar's.

##vote dj-bbq

Milky Moor posted:

I mean

##unvote

##vote dj-bbq

Remember these when I flip town tomorrow

votefinder
Jul 6, 2010

scoop scoop
Votecount for Day 3

dj-bbq (3): Tirade, Small Keating, Milky Moor, Milky Moor, Milky Moor
black_tangled (1): Bifauxnen

Not Voting (8): black_tangled, dj-bbq, Freudian Slip, Gwynplaine, hiddenmovement, Matthew Beet, Splode, Those On My Left

With 12 alive, it's 7 votes to lynch. The current deadline is February 19th, 2015 at 9 p.m. EST -- that's in about 7 hours, 33 minutes.

Freudian Slip
Mar 10, 2007

"I'm an archivist. I'm archiving."
I am still curious about Milky

What made dj-bbq a suspect to you when he has posted a similar way to you (except without the power claim)?

Bifauxnen
Aug 12, 2010

Curses! Foiled again!


dj-bbq posted:

Remember these when I flip town tomorrow

you know if you're supposeldly NOT scum you're just giving the scum a real easy way to lynch you and loving us over pretty hard

maybe try a little harder on the effortposting

Milkfred E. Moore
Aug 27, 2006

'It's easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism.'

Freudian Slip posted:

I am still curious about Milky

What made dj-bbq a suspect to you when he has posted a similar way to you (except without the power claim)?

Maybe it's that exact reason?

black_tangled
Aug 2, 2004

Freudian Slip posted:

I am still curious about Milky

What made dj-bbq a suspect to you when he has posted a similar way to you (except without the power claim)?

He's also just now made a power claim.

Bifauxnen
Aug 12, 2010

Curses! Foiled again!


So b_t is a lot of white noise, TOML is surprisingly focused on simple mechanics and not so much on people's cases, I think they're both suss but gently caress it, let's go right to the top. The more I look at his posts, the more I see, despite his high postcount, a whole lot of not making any solid casing effort except on me. And yet, despite me being his main focus, he's conveniently "lost" the effortpost on me and FS to still stay quiet this morning.

"oh but it was only D2, Bif!" Like that's stopped you before.

##vote Matthew Beet

We already know you're suss on me, Beet. If the others think it's worth anything, they can vote along with you if you cast a vote for me instead of BBQ. But I'd really like to see you speak up on someone else for once. Cause if you're town, you're going to be leaving the poor rest of the townies with a whole lot of nothing once I flip town as well and all that effort you made was wasted.

hambeet
Sep 13, 2002

okay i'm at a computer. i have time to :justpost:

Okay i had started an effort post last night on FS and Bif but lost it. Basically it was a summary of bif and FS posting style and was also what lead to my conclusion that out of the two of them I thought bif was more scummier than FS. It was prompted by their back and forth yesterday and what started to be a lynch train on FS.


FS:

FS posted three times day one, voted anidav with no real reason.

Day 2, FS became more active. I think the running thing with bif helped that too. He started off by telling people to stop revealing roles:

Freudian Slip posted:


Can we cool it with the power role reveals? Milky you revealed and you were asking for someone else to reveal whether they have the power to muck up your night action.


Then he talked about Coq a while. But instead of going for the obvious option (of leading a lynch on coq) he pulled back. Now that coq has flipped town, and specifically claimed to be a cop (without saying it, it's obvious what he was claiming) Freud never pushed for it. It would have been an easy one to lead if he was scum.

Then he gets distracted by this paranoid gun owner theory. I'm not a fan because I don't like over complicating things and I think role analysis bogs us down.

He called WFD on their vote for coq which lines up with what he has said all day.

Today he's come back and appears vindicated that he was right not to take on Coq.

Next up Bif!


Safe bet being a near lynch the day before:

Freudian Slip posted:

Morning all,

Gaspy you are a cruel man, I was so happy to see Starscream go down and then you revealed he was town. Well played

Can we cool it with the power role reveals? Milky you revealed and you were asking for someone else to reveal whether they have the power to muck up your night action.


Lol - how convenient

As for Mills, I think the scum decided that he was too dangerous to keep around. I will have to look at Mith though. But are we sure it was a second scum kill? Did someone Bus Mith and Tirade?

Going to have a look through Miths posts now.

hambeet
Sep 13, 2002

Bifauxnen posted:

So b_t is a lot of white noise, TOML is surprisingly focused on simple mechanics and not so much on people's cases, I think they're both suss but gently caress it, let's go right to the top. The more I look at his posts, the more I see, despite his high postcount, a whole lot of not making any solid casing effort except on me. And yet, despite me being his main focus, he's conveniently "lost" the effortpost on me and FS to still stay quiet this morning.

"oh but it was only D2, Bif!" Like that's stopped you before.

##vote Matthew Beet

We already know you're suss on me, Beet. If the others think it's worth anything, they can vote along with you if you cast a vote for me instead of BBQ. But I'd really like to see you speak up on someone else for once. Cause if you're town, you're going to be leaving the poor rest of the townies with a whole lot of nothing once I flip town as well and all that effort you made was wasted.

yeah, yeah, whats your rush bif? I've only just now gotten somewhere i can actually build a post with links. (gently caress doing that on a phone).

hambeet
Sep 13, 2002

Ughh that post was out of order. ignore the last bolded bit and the quote at the end (fixed in this post)

Matthew Beet posted:

okay i'm at a computer. i have time to :justpost:

Okay i had started an effort post last night on FS and Bif but lost it. Basically it was a summary of bif and FS posting style and was also what lead to my conclusion that out of the two of them I thought bif was more scummier than FS. It was prompted by their back and forth yesterday and what started to be a lynch train on FS.


FS:

FS posted three times day one, voted anidav with no real reason.

Day 2, FS became more active. I think the running thing with bif helped that too. He started off by telling people to stop revealing roles:


Then he talked about Coq a while. But instead of going for the obvious option (of leading a lynch on coq) he pulled back. Now that coq has flipped town, and specifically claimed to be a cop (without saying it, it's obvious what he was claiming) Freud never pushed for it. It would have been an easy one to lead if he was scum.

Then he gets distracted by this paranoid gun owner theory. I'm not a fan because I don't like over complicating things and I think role analysis bogs us down.

He called WFD on their vote for coq which lines up with what he has said all day.

Today he's come back and appears vindicated that he was right not to take on Coq.

Next up Bif!


Safe bet being a near lynch the day before:

Bifauxnen
Aug 12, 2010

Curses! Foiled again!


Look, he magically appeared!

hambeet
Sep 13, 2002

Bifauxnen posted:

Look, he magically appeared!

yes and typed out that whole post in four minutes. :rolleyes:

still writing it up.

Those On My Left
Jun 25, 2010

i am cooking up a truly magnificent post

it'sa gonna be a spicy meataball

Bifauxnen
Aug 12, 2010

Curses! Foiled again!


Just noticed the only other time TOML's bothered trying to make a proper casing post on anyone was also on me. You guys sure don't like to look at each other too hard. I like my spicy food, but I hope you're not just serving up more of the same.

Bifauxnen
Aug 12, 2010

Curses! Foiled again!


Hey BBQ, you want to try and get yourself not lynched? Why don't you hop over on my vote, or are you not too keen on voting for the people I've called out for some reason?

Splode
Jun 18, 2013

put some clothes on you little freak

Bifauxnen posted:

Oh I agree fully that he's scum, but I think he's useless scum. He's trying to stall and give the others time and let them throw him under the bus.

If you think somebody is scum why would you not vote for them straight away? The only time I've seen that was Milky's bullshit in the last game (he was scum and managed to talk us into delaying a lynch on a known scum)

Those On My Left
Jun 25, 2010

Post counts are from the start of the day.

Bifauxnen
- 49 posts (2nd highest post rate)
- On D1, suggested turbolynching Mills or Anidav, both since confirmed town.
- On D1, accused Anidav (proven town) of OMGUSing (I really didn't understand this then and don't now either).
- On D1, encouraged new posters to come forward, almost too friendly.
- On D1, encouraged delaying the lynch so as to get more conversation going to start some leads for D2
- On D1, analyses the kinds of choices Gaspy might have made when assigning players to alignments.
- On D1, accuses both Anidav (town) and Sky Coq (town) of being scummy, but shifts the vote to Sky Coq (which has the effect of delaying the lynch of Anidav).
- On D1, seemingly (but ambiguously) discourages role claims.
- On D1, suggests abandoning the lynching of Anidav & Coq. This would probably have led to a no-lynch.
- On D1, accuses Small Keating of leading us into a no-lynch.
- On D2, supports a lynch on Coq (town) but also wants us to look at WFD (also town).
- On D2, quickly resolves her concerns about WFD (town) but suggests looking at Coq (town) and Tirade. This seems a bit too neat. I would have expected Bif to push this harder.
- On D2, casts doubt on whether Milky is even telling the truth about having targeted Tirade.
- On D2, keeps up the pressure on Coq. (hurr hurr)
- On D2, impugns me and Freudian Slip but doesn't vote for me because doesn't want to be seen to be OMGUSing.
- On D2, makes a very accurate prediction about scum letting Coq live through D1 only to be offed on N2.
- On D2, makes some observations that impugn Tirade but is at pains to say "I'm not impugning Tirade". This looks scummy to me.
- On D2, posts a comprehensive description of the lynching of Anidav (town) and the reprieve granted to Coq (town). Said that if Coq turned out to be town, scum was probably "not well represented" in a group consisting of me, Kat (town), Tirade (town) and Gwynplaine.
- On D2, suggests, quite sensibly, that FS nightkilled Mills because Mills was suspicious of him.
- On D2, says she's got a bad feeling about the WFD case but will probably jump on board anyway. Seems like arse-covering.
- On D2, votes for black_tangled, impugning her "weak case but best we've got", despite having used exactly the same logic in the "I've got a bad feeling" post. Also casts doubt on me.
- On D2, once people have already identified the voting for FS as a bandwagon, Bif comes late to the party and voices the same opinion.
- On D2, says that guessing about the number of scum teams doesn't get you any closer to working out who the scum are. I agree with this, but don't think that means it's worth shutting up posters who want to talk about it, as it could become relevant later.
- On D2, continued to cast doubt on Coq (town).
- On D2, votes for WFD despite her misgivings, but pretty clearly places the responsibility for it on Beet and me.
- On D2, casts doubt on Beet.
- On D3, is weirdly hostile to me posting a post count and saying I'll come back later.
- On D3, throws shade on anyone who is discussing how many scum teams there are.
- On D3, takes what was clearly a joke post by Beet and uses it to have a go at Beet for not posting more about me.
- On D3, says she thinks DJ BBQ is scum, and votes for him.
- On D3, says BT and I are scum, but then inexplicably votes for Beet, saying he's make a lot of posts but not saying much. This doesn't bear out in my analysis.

black_tangled
- 42 posts (4th highest post rate)
- On D1, a lot of jokey / white noise posts, but desisted when the Anidav lynch really got rolling
- On D1, keen to grill Anidav.
- On D1, goes after Anidav but in a substantive way, pointing out inconsistencies in his posting.
- On D1, accuses Anidav (town) of engineering the lynch on Coq (town). (I still don't really get this.)
- On D1, makes an effort post encouraging a lynch on Anidav (town).
- On D2, seconds Bif's queries about WFD (town).
- On D2, does a run-down of all the players, naming the following as suss: (dj-bbq, hiddenmovement, Kat (town), MMG (town), Coq (town), Small Keating).
- On D2, suggests incorrectly that scum will leave Coq alive for a while.
- On D2, refuses to vote for Coq, saying it plays into scum hands.
- On D2, votes for WFD, saying (fairly) that the case is light but it's the best we have.
- On D2, abandons the vote for WFD to go vote for BBQ on the basis that BBQ isn't posting and that's just bad form. An understandable move

dj-bbq
14 posts (lowest post rate)
- On D2, incredibly low content posting, throwing shade on Tirade.
- On D2, reasonably fairly casts aspersions on Hidden Movement (although doesn't go to any great lengths to make his case).
- On D2, says he doesn't have anyone to chat to about the game - i.e. isn't in a masonry or a scum group. A fairly blatant "I'm town" post.
- On D2, white noise.
- On D2, votes for FS, quite low content.
- On D2, votes for WFD pretty clearly just to stay alive.
- On D3, casts doubt on me but can't commit to actually voting for me. Scummy.

Freudian Slip
- 30 posts (equal 6th highest post rate)
- On D1, very very quiet.
- On D2, posts what turns out to be a horrifically wrong theory about Coq being scum.
- On D2, has a reasonably good answer to Bif's allegations. I am still not sure about this one.
- On D2, says that he thinks that encouraging the lynching of Coq (town) is a scum move, I think?
- On D2, correctly suggests that Coq is a dead man walking, and will be night killed shortly.
- On D2, makes a reply to Bif that frankly I am too tired to properly parse, I welcome other people's input on this.
- On D2, seems to get kinda angry that people are still voting for Coq (town). Either a nice scum play or a genuine town reaction.
- On D3, casts doubt on Milky just because Milky is still alive. Weird.
- On D3, understandably wants more out of Milky re: Milky's vote for BBQ.

Gwynplaine
- 28 posts (7th highest post rate)
- On D1, first post is incredibly low content and just impugns Mills (now known town)
- On D1, posts a, uh, *weird* theory about Anidav and Coq.
- On D1, more awful noob theories.
- On D1, votes for Anidav (town) with no content.
- On D2, comes out with more posts explaining why they won't make useful posts.
- On D2, largely silent newbie says he's not suspicious of Bif "at all".
- On D2, tries to get Coq to reveal information.
- On D2, says he's suss on Bif and FS.

hiddenmovement
- 19 posts (equal 2nd lowest post rate)
- On D1, makes a no content post voting for Mills (confirmed town)
- On D1, more white noise.
- On D1, throws previous posting into doubt on the basis that he hasn't received his PM yet.
- On D1, more white noise.
- On D2, responds to suspicion by saying he hammer Anidav for a laugh and thinks Coq is hiding something. Says he has "an okay ability" that he doesn't know how to use properly. I have no idea what that could be.
- On D2, white noise.

Matthew Beet
- 79 posts (highest post rate)
- On D1, backed up Kat's (now proven incorrect) suspicions about Anidav.
- On D1, very quick to vote Anidav (since proven town)
- On D1, calls Bif on making bizarre OMGUS calls (I agree with Beet on this one).
- On D1, backed Bif's call to not turbo lynch Anidav just for comedy value.
- On D1, helped WFD work out who was staying silent.
- On D1, became super suss of Coq (confirmed town) very quickly in response to a wishy-washy Coq post.
- On D1, complains about Anidav and Coq roleclaiming (both town).
- On D1, points out inconsistencies in Anidav's posts.
- On D1, is vocally suss about Bif. I agreed with this.
- On D1, makes what was, for me, the single most effective argument about whether to vote for Coq or Anidav.
- On D2, makes a post that just doesn't seem like Beet to me.
- On D2, walks back his suspicion of Bif (but not entirely), and gets suspicious of HM's posting and voting. This is reasonable.
- On D2, agrees that there are holes in Bif's theories.
- On D2, points out that HM appears as soon as mentioned, which is scummy.
- On D2, implores MMG (town) to post theories and make a call.
- On D2, says he thinks the case on FS is weak, and he'd rather vote for Bif.
- On D2, continues to accurately identify weak cases.
- On D2, possibly bandwagoning WFD, but I dunno, the post seems genuine.
- On D2, points out that Bif is misconstruing his posts and ignoring things he says.
- On D3, says he's still suss on FS and Bif and castigates Bif for trying to get Milky and Tirade to roleclaim.
- On D3, makes a reasonable case for FS.

Milky Moor
- 22 posts (3rd lowest post rate)
- Suggested on D1 he'd be flavour posting as he did last game, has since dropped it.
- On D1, voted for Anidav (confirmed town) with a content-free post.
- On D1, shifts his vote to Sky Coq (confirmed town) with another content-free post.
- On D1, tries to justify his quietness. Again, is not flavourposting.
- On D2, accuses someone of protecting Tirade. Never really explains this in any depth.
- On D2, says he has "an incredibly accurate hunch" that the two N1 night kills were not caused by town.
- On D2, says he is sure that Tirade wasn't bussed. I have no idea how he knows this.
- On D2, says he thinks we have two scum teams. Bif has later suggested it's not helpful to think about this. I doubt that.
- On D2, in a low content post, votes for Freudian Slip.
- On D3, says he's looking at BBQ or FS
- On D3, doesn't need much encouragement by Bif to vote for BBQ.

Small Keating
- 19 posts (equal 2nd lowest post rate)
- On D1, breaks a long silence to make a reasonable post accusing Coq (confirmed town) of scummy posting and votes for him.
- On D2, shares Tirade's concerns about WFD (town) and HM trying to protect Coq. This post seems opportunistic to me.
- On D2, a minor effort post that doesn't really go anywhere (i.e. culminate in a vote).
- On D2, encourages Coq to post theories and says he intends to vote for Coq.
- On D2, follows through and votes for Coq (town).
- On D3, claims he has no idea what's going on, tries to rouse the silent posters. I think this is effectively white noise.

Splode
- 43 posts (3rd highest post rate)
- On D1, hedged bets on Anidav (who has since been proven town) saying he was dumb, but suss
- On D1, one of the first people to explicitly encourage voting for Anidav (proven town) on the basis that "less Anidav = less Anidav posting" (I have a lot of sympathy for this attitude)
- On D1, threw shade on Mith (confirmed town).
- On D1, justifiably accuses Coq of OMGUSing Beet.
- On D1, consistent with his own posting, votes for Coq (town).
- On D2, continues to discourage roleclaiming.
- On D2, agrees with my suspicions about Bif.
- On D2, says he thinks HM's mistakes are just down to HM being new, and suggests BBQ is scum for trying to paint HM as scum. Also implores Coq to say more things.
- On D2, is the first to jump on board the train I started on WFD, describing my frankly laughably flimsy case as "pretty good". This is scummy.
- On D2, unvotes WFD, admitting that the case is lousy.
- On D2, makes a reasonable case about BBQ jumping on bandwagons and votes for him.
- On D3, gets into an argument with me about possible explanations for the kills. I don't think this matters, overall.

Tirade
- 30 posts (equal 6th highest post rate)
- On D1, Joke-voted Milky for flavourposting.
- On D1, voted for Old Dirty Cumburgs (confirmed scum)
- On D1, instantly echoed Bif's calls to not lynch Anidav too quickly, to allow more time to chat and set up D2 leads.
- On D1, sensibly took Anidav to task for doing the idiotic thing of ... *sigh* ... voting for himself.
- On D1, also criticised Anidav for roleclaiming.
- On D1, eventually became a particularly passionate advocate for not lynching Anidav without getting other things underway first.
- On D1, accurately picks on Beet for a different playstyle, also criticises Kat (now known town) and Milky for lazily joining the Anidav bandwagon.
- On D1, seems torn about whether to vote for Coq or Anidav (both town)
- On D1, justifiably loses his mind at Anidav.
- On D2, accuses WFD (town) and hiddenmovement of trying to scummily protect Coq (town). I think this is an okay theory that wound up being wrong, but was made in good faith.
- On D2, tries to encourage the quiet players to speak up.
- On D2, posts a reasonable theory about why Scum might be happy with how all this is playing out.
- On D2, says he's having trouble posting because of network dropouts.

So what do I take from all this?

D1:
- Beet seemed to capitalise on reluctance about the Anidav lynch by shifting suspicion to Coq. The end result of this was we lynched Anidav (town) on D1 and came close to lynching Coq (town) on D2.
- Tirade's behaviour actually seems quite town to me. Voted for a scum, yelled at Anidav for playing badly, tried to delay the Anidav lynch.
- Bif's posting is almost too friendly. The idle musing about Gaspy's set-up choices is funny given her criticism of me for pondering how many scum teams we might have.
- Hiddenmovement's posting levels are awful. At first blush you might think this makes him town, because scum would be encouraging him to be less suss, but I actually think any smart scum wouldn't have meddled with his style, because that difference would be noticed.
- Dj-bbq, wtf bbq.
- Beet seemed to let himself be guided about the final decision between Anidav and Coq. This seems like a move designed to shift the blame for the eventual decision onto Mills. However, I'm less certain of this, because Mills got killed immediately, so if Beet were scum he wouldn't have gotten what he paid for (i.e. more suspicion on another Townie: Mills).
- Splode strikes me as town.

D2:
- Small Keating becomes, to me, increasingly suspicious.
- I think Black Tangled's scumdar is off but I don't think she's actually suss. If she's scum, she's being way too obvious in impugning townies.
- Beet comes across as less suspicious, Bif as more suspicious.
- Would love to know how Milky is so sure that neither of the two N1 night kills were caused by a townie (but don't want Milky to roleclaim). It's eating at me.
- Bif's theory about FS nightkilling Mills because Mills was onto him is the most persuasive thing Bif has posted.
- I am not too suss on Milky yet.
- I feel the same way about BBQ that I did about HM. Posting style is distinctively scummy, to the point where you'd expect scum to tell him to knock it off. But maybe scum is telling him to keep that style? Or should I choose the Wine In Front Of Me?
- Splode described the case on WFD as good one minute, terrible the next. This is scummy.
- However, Splode correctly picks that BBQ is jumping on bandwagons. This is a town play, but, also, it seems not to take much for Splode to move his vote.

D3:
- Bif is weirdly antagonistic towards me.
- I think that Bif is technically right that discussing the number of scum teams doesn't get you closer to identifying scum, but there are a lot of newbies in this game (as well as players who are only on their 2nd or 3rd game) so I don't think there's anything wrong with canvassing all the possible setups.


Overall, my Town picks are Tirade, probably Beet, probably Splode, probably Black_Tangled.

My scum picks are Bifauxnen, dj_bbq, hiddenmovement and probably Small Keating.

Genuinely unsure on: Gwnyplaine, Freudian Slip, Milky Moor.

##vote Bifauxnen

Those On My Left
Jun 25, 2010

Bifauxnen
Aug 12, 2010

Curses! Foiled again!


Because I'm worried that the hammer will fall on him as the bus runs him over, and Beet and TOML and b_t will so conveniently miss out on making all those cases they were totally getting ready on each other, honest.

Those On My Left
Jun 25, 2010

Bifauxnen posted:

Because I'm worried that the hammer will fall on him as the bus runs him over, and Beet and TOML and b_t will so conveniently miss out on making all those cases they were totally getting ready on each other, honest.

*ahem*

Milkfred E. Moore
Aug 27, 2006

'It's easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism.'
TOML, I'm pretty sure I mentioned two possibilities as to why my action failed. Extrapolate from those and you can determine what happened to my action. If Tirade was bussed, I would have gotten a different result on my action.

Those On My Left
Jun 25, 2010

Milky Moor posted:

TOML, I'm pretty sure I mentioned two possibilities as to why my action failed. Extrapolate from those and you can determine what happened to my action. If Tirade was bussed, I would have gotten a different result on my action.

Right! Thanks for clearing that up.

Bifauxnen
Aug 12, 2010

Curses! Foiled again!



So you sit on your rear end not making any cases until it gets all constipated into that giant thing no one's going to actually read. Helpful.

Since I know the most about what I posted though, I thought I'd go and quickly check some of your work.


Follow the link for yourself, but here is the link he quoted:

Bifauxnen posted:

Getting slightly suss on Beet now for bothering to complain about my sucky cases, but not putting much of himself on the line or helping much in moving to a better lynch idea till it's getting real late. He seems happy to just let me twist around in the wind, cluelessly trying to piece together gently caress all while not much else effort is being made.

If you think that's an OMGUS, knock yourself out tomorrow and have at it if I'm still around, just get something going for chrissakes.

Actually voting now is helping, though. We got 8 votes now spread across dj and dinner. If we all worked together to pick one, that's still 1 more we gotta get.

Matthew Beet posted:

Because it's d2 and there's gently caress all to build an argument on.

Me letting you twist in the wind? Hardly. You were making bad assumptions on FS and I'm not super suss on him.

Toml was looking at you too and I also said similar to him, there's not much there with Bif to make a case out of.

So I tried making a somewhat case for hidden movement which was weak as piss because he had posted gently caress all at the time. I said to you in the last hour It'd be interesting to confirm FS flip to pick apart who voted for him tomorrow and confirmed with toml I'd do that if we got stuck for a lynch. You've decided to ignore that though.

Tell me, how is me putting forward my own opinion on a player, not in direct response to a given thing Beet said, "misconstruing what he said"?

Your case is poo poo, your opinion of Beet as "town" for slacking off way more than usual is crap, and you guys can lynch me to test it if you want but it might be a bit too late.

Milkfred E. Moore
Aug 27, 2006

'It's easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism.'

Those On My Left posted:

Right! Thanks for clearing that up.

For our next trick, I'll now mention that you should be able to figure out my role, too.

hambeet
Sep 13, 2002

Bif.

Bif, bif bif.

I'll start by saying bif is all over the place this game. Why I excused her behavior when TOML called her on it putting this post together really makes me wonder why she has done what she's done this game. Bif normally plays pretty well.

Bif:

Bif was more active than FS on day 1. NO WHERE near as active as she usually would be but she did disclaim right from the start she had a full on work day, so that's not that out of the ordinary. TOML called her on some things even and I pointed out she was acting off but no real argument could be made.

Day 2 and 3 she's been fairly active and voting.

FS and Bif had a bit of a back and forth and so I wanted to look at them without accusing them (at first) because we've seen town do this to each other for a stack of games. (Even Bif and I have done it to each other).

First call is regarding the roleclaims. She's tried, twice to suss out more info on peoples roles, d1 and d3. Neither of them are outright demands to reveal the role, she knows better than to out right ask, but somehow forgets that she shouldn't be even trying to in the first place.

Second: She based her whole argument against FS based of Mills voting FS. Never mind he changed that vote 30 minutes later to Coq. His vote for FS was based on FS voting for anidav and not having much content, he wasn't the only one so this is obviously a random grab by Mills. Mills even said :

Mills posted:

I urge others to do their own digging in a similar vein, rather than blindly following me onto FS.

He obviously meant for the d1 vote, but this didn't deter Bif! She did finally recant her crusade on FS admitting she based it off the mills vote :

Bifauxnen posted:

Hahahaha, TOML and b_t I will save you both some time and tell you that my FS case was crafted from reading (perhaps too much) into Mills having that one suspicion, and just getting myself all worked up into info paralysis.

but not before she made this dumb argument :

Bifauxnen posted:

This is the sticking point. If Coq has an investigative role, they really should want him dead. Preferably by lynch instead of having to worry about nighkilling him, when he could be protected. But they have much less to fear now in the way of being watched. So maybe that's it - they figure if he's not lynched today, they can easily watch him tonight to find his protection. In a large game like this, that might be well worth it in the long run to take one more night of risk. Just throw one scum under the bus once they're found out. And by buddying up to him today in the meantime, they'll look real rosy for sticking up for him now by the time he does flip. Maybe they won't even be investigated by him tonight when they're his staunch defenders! TOML has just weighed in on the same note. If my TOML-handwringing theory is right, he could be trying to look innocent to Coq as well.

Which I called her on :

Matthew Beet posted:

Yeah bif that really doesn't make sense at all. It's a huge leap of logic. Why wouldn't scum just let us lynch him today and let them target someone else tonight?!?

Which is REALLY FUNNY, because she made the above post three hours after this one (to coq):

Bifauxnen posted:

or, they could have figured you'd get lynched anyway, so why waste their power on someone that the town already had their eyes on and easily could take care of the next day? The handy thing about the vig power is you don't need to worry anymore about who's voting where. This way they could also wait to hear you try and explain your ~super helpful role~ first.

So you've made up an argument and scrounged for anything to fit it into your theory to try and pin on FS? The FS that you were targeting based on a 30 minute no real explanation vote from Mills. Hmmm.

At least you had the good graces to admit it was a crap argument that you made up because you were gunning FS:

Bifauxnen posted:

Well, yes that is a weak spot. I'm certainly not sure of it, but that's the first thought I had when I had my eyes on FS anyway, and that's what he came up with. And to be fair, no one has bothered casting one vote on Coq yet all day. It's certainly not as sure of a thing as it looked at the very start of the day. The scum might not want to risk their necks trying to get the lynch fully started up again.


Last night you've accused me of not scum hunting.

Uhhh :

Matthew Beet posted:

"Hi I'm Coq, I post wishy washy poo poo like this to try and cover my arse if the lynchee flips town. I do this because I'm concerned people will think I'm too late jumping in on a lynch if i jump on now. I don't realise that in doing so, this does the opposite of what i wanted and draws attention to me. You can tell this post is white noise, because I don't offer anything of worth up and instead ask everyone else to make suggestions, giving the illusion i'm helping."

Matthew Beet posted:

Good post, this is how you do it.

Except you missed the part where i had just attacked coq, Or maybe you didn't miss that.


At least coq hasn't jumped on that band wa....



Oh..


:v:

Matthew Beet posted:

Coq probably makes a better d1 because of his antics... But you could say the same about anidav.

Coqs white noise post I picked him up o and his vote for me is the sussest thing he has done, but he followed Tirade with the vote and it wasn't a terrible, if inaccurate argument.

Anidav is just the lol option, obviously.

I'm also interested in some of what Mith had to say about silent posters. What are dj-bbq or milky or hidden movement doing?(that's only to name three, mith has commented on over half the player list so far!)

Matthew Beet posted:

I'm glad you responded, i was a little suss on you for calling out half the thread (basically it could look like you're trying to actively scum hunt without achieving anything)

So anyway these bolded ones area really good pickups.


So excluding just the low content posts there can be reasons for this, there's these three.

Milky bandwagoning twice and being low on the post count.
Hidden Movement voting mills without even knowing his role or alignment(!)
MMG, i picked this up too

Milky, it's suss but not as much as Hidden Movement voting without allegedly knowing his role. That said it's day 1 it could have just been a joke vote. MMG has been very 'fade into the background'.

Matthew Beet posted:

gently caress Meetings.

Okay I'm reading through, I just wanted to comment on a few things first:


Um not sure. Bifs response to the role claim was that she thought she could pull a King Solomon without them revealing the roles. I took the original post as trying to work out who thought who had a more powerful role. I don't think you can resolve that without some very obvious role revealing so wondered why the gently caress she bothered to ask it?

I don't think it was deliberate but her trying to gain more info about the roles was quite funny considering she started the day with :


No smoking gun poo poo, just a bit off.




I'm interested in following up what some of miths things were yesterday. This doesn't mean people on this list offed her or not (she did name 11 people all up yesterday) but it was a relatively well thought out list, she was actively scum hunting and now we've confirmed that she was town.

She said


and I went on to point out three people, milky's comeback was fair (literally 'it's d1 you nub'), MMG was another (more active today) but hidden movement was also one. He voted mills without even having access to his PM's not a huge crime, but also has been very low on content.

He came in last night and hammered Anidav with no reasoning, and hasn't followed up today to explain why when there was a last minute shift on coq.

His only post since lat night has been :


Which is literally just repeating what coq said five posts earlier:




You've even made the same claim to TOML.



In both cases you're asking for US to do the work. What exactly is it that you've done BIF? So far all I can see is that you've done is made one effort post about Coq which was really just a voting summary, and then weighed in on FS for the rest of it. Oh I guess you've flip flopped around on your votes since then a bit, after being called out for not doing so. Oh and you also go and get upset that I've had the tenacity to suggest that out of FS and you, you look scummier. It's since then that you've been belting out your 'beet seems scummy' line.



Now you're resorting to scraping the barrel looking for anything, again. Kind of like you did with FS.

Are you seriously trying to hold me to account to a day 1 joke post 44 minutes after the game opened.

Bifauxnen posted:

Riiiight. Beet then proceeds to not actually say much about TOML at all.

I am looking forward to seeing you weigh in more on me and FS, but I sure hope you don't forget to look at TOML and b_t in the meantime. Despite your leading spot in the postcounts, I don't see you actually looking at a whole lot else besides me yet. Get it out of your system if you need to, but you better start some prep work on those two cases next for after my flip.

Seriously? Are you going to hold me to my pat benetar joke too?

hambeet
Sep 13, 2002

Milky Moor posted:

For our next trick, I'll now mention that you should be able to figure out my role, too.

I'm really surprised more people haven't. It's also pretty easy to deduce your alignment from it. I tried to point it out to bif but she's obviously got a scummed up brain atm , wait i mean gummed up.

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Bifauxnen
Aug 12, 2010

Curses! Foiled again!


Tell you what, Beet. You are right that you've hunted more than TOML. Between that and TOML's giant effort distraction post, I think that makes him a bit higher on the suss list and worth targeting him first in my theory.

##vote Those On My Left

I brought up your joke only because it helped remind me that you actually haven't been looking at TOML at all. Why not? Why don't you go work on him now while we're waiting?

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