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Diet Crack
Jan 15, 2001

You can make 50 changes over the season from all the free agents under the players list.

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Spedman
Mar 12, 2010

Kangaroos hate Hasselblads
I'm pretty happy with my list after I slapping together a pre-draft list. Pav, Bannell and Gunston up forward. But not happy with peanut Robinson on the bench along with the suspect Carlisle.

Windmill Hut
Jul 21, 2008

MCG goalposts will be going up any day now :getin:

FOOOTAAYYY

drunkill
Sep 25, 2007

me @ ur posting
Fallen Rib
I'm excited for Carltons win this Thursday night.

Didn't get reserved seats though, so I'll have to turn up early :(

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
I'm not going to be able to get WatchAFL for a couple weeks. The Suns have Melbourne and St. Kilda to start the season. I'm sure the stream sites will be busting their asses to get those games up due to the demand. :sigh: Suns really need to win three of their first four.

The Deadly Hume
May 26, 2004

Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

Volkerball posted:

I'm not going to be able to get WatchAFL for a couple weeks. The Suns have Melbourne and St. Kilda to start the season. I'm sure the stream sites will be busting their asses to get those games up due to the demand. :sigh: Suns really need to win three of their first four.
You'd be surprised, although your best bet is if the games turn up on Eurosport or something, strangely enough.

(I'd watch streams of the Giro d'Italia for those stages that aren't broadcast here and in the break they'd advertise the footy and it'd be weird.)

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
Last year I had WatchAFL up before the season began, but the year before that, I watched streams. I remember watching the Port game in round 21 and the GWS game in 23, but I think 22 against St. Kilda there was no stream. Maybe 21 against Melbourne didn't either, because I didn't watch that game, but that may have been before I was a Suns fan.

Windmill Hut
Jul 21, 2008

I won yearly pass to the AFL Live thingy. Anyone have any suggestions on how i could stream it onto my PC/a TV? I don't have a tablet and watching it on my phone is a waste. I've tried one of these android emulators (Bluestacks & Andy) but couldn't get either to work with the app.

NTRabbit
Aug 15, 2012

i wear this armour to protect myself from the histrionics of hysterical women

bitches




Apparently I'm going to my first Crows game outside of Adelaide... if I can figure out how to buy the tickets.

Should I be able to buy GA tickets to the game vs Collingwood at the MCG Etihad already? I don't think my membership entitles me to anything else

Edit: Turns out I can, just the automated system from Ticketmaster turns off between 2 and 5am for reasons unexplained.

NTRabbit fucked around with this message at 22:25 on Mar 29, 2015

Spedman
Mar 12, 2010

Kangaroos hate Hasselblads

Windmill Hut posted:

I won yearly pass to the AFL Live thingy. Anyone have any suggestions on how i could stream it onto my PC/a TV? I don't have a tablet and watching it on my phone is a waste. I've tried one of these android emulators (Bluestacks & Andy) but couldn't get either to work with the app.

I've got it working on an Android Tronsmart box pretty nicely, you can get them at geekbuying.com for about $100.

Drugs
Jul 16, 2010

I don't like people who take drugs. Customs agents, for example - Albert Einstein

Windmill Hut posted:

I won yearly pass to the AFL Live thingy. Anyone have any suggestions on how i could stream it onto my PC/a TV? I don't have a tablet and watching it on my phone is a waste. I've tried one of these android emulators (Bluestacks & Andy) but couldn't get either to work with the app.

Use a Chromecast for an Android tablet or an AppleTV for an iPad

pkid
Jan 30, 2005

I was raised on the dairy, BITCH!
Some arsehole at Wrestlemania has a Stand By Hird sign.

Gough Suppressant
Nov 14, 2008

pkid posted:

Some arsehole at Wrestlemania has a Stand By Hird sign.

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Testekill
Nov 1, 2012

I demand to be taken seriously

:aronrex:

pkid posted:

Some arsehole at Wrestlemania has a Stand By Hird sign.


ohmyfuckinggod

Gough Suppressant
Nov 14, 2008
sting vs triple j has a bit of the darren jarman's about it.

Testekill
Nov 1, 2012

I demand to be taken seriously

:aronrex:

Gough Suppressant posted:

sting vs triple j has a bit of the darren jarman's about it.

You should see what Sting looked like in TNA.

Gough Suppressant
Nov 14, 2008

Testekill posted:

You should see what Sting looked like in TNA.

yeah that was bad

Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
...

pkid posted:

Some arsehole at Wrestlemania has a Stand By Hird sign.

Holy poo poo, that's great. It almost makes the whole saga worth it.

tnimark
Dec 22, 2009
Goddammit. Josh Thomas and Lachie Keefe tested positive for PEDs.

Paracausal
Sep 5, 2011

Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

tnimark posted:

Goddammit. Josh Thomas and Lachie Keefe tested positive for PEDs.

#getfuckedbucks

Gough Suppressant
Nov 14, 2008
How loving dumb would you have to be

The Deadly Hume
May 26, 2004

Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

tnimark posted:

Goddammit. Josh Thomas and Lachie Keefe tested positive for PEDs.
:milk:

Oh yeah, after the last two seasons, surely no-one will notice if we hit the hard stuff.

Collingwood definitely looking like bottom four material now.

Spedman
Mar 12, 2010

Kangaroos hate Hasselblads
Here's a run down of the rolling circus tomorrow:
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/essendon-supplements-saga-your-guide-to-tuesdays-afl-antidoping-verdict-20150330-1majjd.html

realbez
Mar 23, 2005

Fun Shoe
Those two Collingwood players apparently tested positive for Clenbuterol.

NTRabbit
Aug 15, 2012

i wear this armour to protect myself from the histrionics of hysterical women

bitches




The important thing is that I almost took Josh Thomas in the draft but didn't

Box Hill Strangler
Jun 27, 2007

Frozen peas are on special at Woolies! Bargain!
It worked for Alberto Contador.

Fingers crossed Bucks/pies goes a bit like Hird/dons, just because Im a spiteful, horrible person.

realbez
Mar 23, 2005

Fun Shoe
Please no, I can't take another two years of this drugs bullshit. Anyway, there is no way an AFL club would be dumb enough to give their players clenbuterol, a very well known PED. Only idiot individuals can make that choice as professional footballers.

Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
...
This will all be worth it if it causes Eddie to resign.

Gough Suppressant
Nov 14, 2008
The one thing I have thinking would make this Drugs thing a little bit easier to swallow was if it hosed collingwood

NTRabbit
Aug 15, 2012

i wear this armour to protect myself from the histrionics of hysterical women

bitches




realbez posted:

Please no, I can't take another two years of this drugs bullshit. Anyway, there is no way an AFL club would be dumb enough to give their players clenbuterol, a very well known PED. Only idiot individuals can make that choice as professional footballers.

Won't remotely take two years, they have an actual positive test this time so it will be done shortly after the B sample comes back positive

Boonys Cut Shot
Nov 5, 2004

Elite athlete

NTRabbit posted:

Won't remotely take two years, they have an actual positive test this time so it will be done shortly after the B sample comes back positive

B samples come back April 14.

Gough Suppressant
Nov 14, 2008
Buckley is supposed to be on AFL360 tonight, guessing he will be absent.

hiddenmovement
Sep 29, 2011

"Most mornings I'll apologise in advance to my wife."
If they have any sense they will just sack them on the spot. They aren't exactly A graders anyway

NTRabbit
Aug 15, 2012

i wear this armour to protect myself from the histrionics of hysterical women

bitches




hiddenmovement posted:

If they have any sense they will just sack them on the spot. They aren't exactly A graders anyway

If they do that now and the B samples come back negative they'll cop a wrongful dismissal suit. It's pretty much on hold until the end of April.

The Deadly Hume
May 26, 2004

Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.
Now is a good time to get your tips in for the first round if you haven't done so.
http://www.footytips.com.au/comps/SASTips&p=goons

I'm going to be an annoying bastard and hype this every day.

FIRST GAME IS ON THURSDAY NIGHT, don't get caught out! You can actually change your tip before each game starts but it's a good idea to the whole lot at once. If you're the forgetful type I suggest filling out a few rounds in advance when you do remember, just so you don't have to cop the away teams rule.

They just made me agree to some new T&Cs so watch out for that when logging in as well.

Now :spergin: :spergin: :spergin: NUMBERRRRS :spergin: :spergin: :spergin: time.

As usual I enjoy throwing shitloads of numbers into the thread. I am loving terrible at fantasy leagues (so many players to keep track of) to the point where I just don't do them, but I enjoy messing around with team ratings.

To start with, my seed ratings, derived from last year's H&A results. First column of numbers is the ratings I generally burp out, second column is the absolute rating. 86.6 was the average score in the home and away rounds last season (2013 was 92), so 866 is the par.

Hopefully it'll be higher this year, but as a result, the numbers look a bit more anaemic than usual. Usually I'd say 1200 or more puts you in the premiership zone, but this time around, that threshold might be closer to 1100. Hawthorn is about 12 goals better than St Kilda.
code:
Haw	 1198 	 332 
Syd	 1161 	 295 
PA	 1095 	 229 
Frem	 1093 	 227 
Geel	  985 	 119 
NM	  970 	 104 
Adel	  966 	 100 
WC	  959 	  93 
Ess	  914 	  48 
Rich	  881 	  15 
Coll	  842 	 -24 
GC	  789  	 -77 
Carl	  768 	 -98 
WB	  677 	-189 
GWS	  632 	-234 
Melb	  608 	-258 
Bris	  591 	-275 
StK	  457 	-409 
As always, there's always a fair heap going during the off-season, so things can get wobbly in the first month. Fortunately after that the ratings start making more sense, but there's a reason why the first round is the toughest for it to track.



Yeah, it's an Excel table. I usually crunch these out using Python which also makes it easy to spit out all those strange graphs. The method I use is ridiculously simple, though - subtract one team's rating from the other, add a "travel" factor of 2 goals if required, and then adjust each team's rating by how much better or worse they did compared with the prediction.

The thing got over 70% last year, usually it gets about 66-67% correct so there must've been something weird about last season. Nevertheless, a savvy tipster will be able to beat it most of the time. I use it as a guide but of course I'll go the other way if I have a good reason to. You know, team ins-and-outs, off-field crap, the sort of thing that is omitted entirely from calculations.

For instance, I am tipping Brisbane over Collingwood, and maybe Port over Fremantle. It actually looks like a tight bunch of games, I mean the biggest predicted result is Sydney over Essendon by 6 goals. Which, if you remember what happened to Sydney in their first round last year, is nothing.

There's other things I'm going to try and implement this year (like having attack-defense ratings which would help me predict total scores as well as margins), but I need a bit of time to work on those. I'll probably start going crazy with the graphs around Round 4 maybe.

The Deadly Hume fucked around with this message at 07:16 on Mar 30, 2015

The Deadly Hume
May 26, 2004

Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

NTRabbit posted:

Won't remotely take two years, they have an actual positive test this time so it will be done shortly after the B sample comes back positive
Yeah, PEDs are a clear-cut no-no, and no club would be stupid enough to sanction them, so it's probably the usual story of fringe players trying to get an edge.




Or maybe they went to some dodgy steakhouses.

Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
...

YESSSSSS

Never stop posting graphs. Just out of curiosity how did your preseason ladder prediction last year look compared to the real thing?

I'll be pretty surprised if GWS only beats us by 6 points. I'm hoping for a Saints win, but I wont be surprised if we lose by 20+ points.

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

hiddenmovement posted:

If they have any sense they will just sack them on the spot. They aren't exactly A graders anyway

They have to be delisted once the B sample comes back positive, unless there is something the media haven't said (self reports etc) they'll be banned for two years. Interesting there has been four players caught recently (these two, Crowley and Saad), I wonder if ASADA is scrutinizing the AFL a bit more closely than in the past. It wouldn't surprise me if PEDs were rife at all clubs and Essendon were just the ones dumb enough to get caught.

NTRabbit
Aug 15, 2012

i wear this armour to protect myself from the histrionics of hysterical women

bitches




Recreational drugs are certainly rife, cocaine is the modern footballer's choice, but not so sure about PEDs

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realbez
Mar 23, 2005

Fun Shoe

NTRabbit posted:

Won't remotely take two years, they have an actual positive test this time so it will be done shortly after the B sample comes back positive

Yeah I know, I was responding to the post above me. Clenbuterol... I mean how stupid can you be?

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