AFL 2015 - To Kill A Mocking Hird - The Something Awful Forums

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The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

Periphery posted:

YESSSSSS

Never stop posting graphs. Just out of curiosity how did your preseason ladder prediction last year look compared to the real thing?

I'll be pretty surprised if GWS only beats us by 6 points. I'm hoping for a Saints win, but I wont be surprised if we lose by 20+ points.

Hmmm, I usually don't do Monte Carlo runs until late in the season because simulating 23 rounds takes fooorrrreeevvvveeerrrr and doing it with the start of year ratings is kind of meaningless.

More meaningful is comparing how each team did in 2014 compared with 2013.

St Kilda had a stinker of course but they're not as bad as Melbourne or GWS were in 2013 (who both improved quite a bit. Melbourne's attack was still ordinary but they improved in defence considerably.)

As I said before, the average score (or par as I think of it here) dropped quite a bit from ~ 92 to 86.6, so Hawthorn lost quite a few ranking points but in relative terms stayed about the same, while Sydney stayed equal, but in relative terms improved by a goal.

It's making me think a bit about how to present these ratings and whether I should use the zero sum values instead (which wouldn't change how each team rates against each other, but would make them more consistent across seasons).

# ? Mar 30, 2015 07:51

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# ? May 6, 2024 18:21

Diet Crack: Jan 15, 2001

Based on no statistical analysis and purely from the heart, I give you my 2015 ladder:

Port
Sydney
Hawthorn
Geelong
Norf
Fremantle
Adelaide
WestCoast
Brisbane
Richmond
Gold Coast
Collingwood
Carlton
Essendon
GWS
Bulldogs
Melbourne
St Kilda

Brisbane are definitely my dark horse this year, and I suspect Collingwood will slide heavily because Cloke sucks.
e: I'm being emphatically positive with West Coast's chances, but they're probably 9-11th.

Diet Crack fucked around with this message at 08:46 on Mar 30, 2015

# ? Mar 30, 2015 08:12

Gough Suppressant: Nov 14, 2008

Slightly disappointed that I won't be there to see Jesse hogan become the first player to kick 20 goals on debut

# ? Mar 30, 2015 08:19

Diet Crack: Jan 15, 2001

Also posting the West Coast best 22 for round 1, because why not.

code:

FB:  Bennell     Brown       Yeo
HB:  Sheppard    McGovern    Hurn
C:   Gaff        Priddis     Rosa
HF:  Sheed       Kennedy     Wellingham
FF:  LeCras      Lycett      Cripps
R:   Naitanui    Shuey       Selwood

Int: Lamb, Schofield, Nelson, Butler (sub)
Emg: Ellis, Tunbridge, Hill

# ? Mar 30, 2015 08:39

Periphery: Jul 27, 2003; ...

The Deadly Hume posted:

Hmmm, I usually don't do Monte Carlo runs until late in the season because simulating 23 rounds takes fooorrrreeevvvveeerrrr and doing it with the start of year ratings is kind of meaningless.

More meaningful is comparing how each team did in 2014 compared with 2013.

St Kilda had a stinker of course but they're not as bad as Melbourne or GWS were in 2013 (who both improved quite a bit. Melbourne's attack was still ordinary but they improved in defence considerably.)

As I said before, the average score (or par as I think of it here) dropped quite a bit from ~ 92 to 86.6, so Hawthorn lost quite a few ranking points but in relative terms stayed about the same, while Sydney stayed equal, but in relative terms improved by a goal.

It's making me think a bit about how to present these ratings and whether I should use the zero sum values instead (which wouldn't change how each team rates against each other, but would make them more consistent across seasons).

Cool, thanks!

I'm not very knowledgeable when it comes to how people come up with stats etc (Monte Carlos are biscuits, right?) but I could look at graphs and the stats other people come up with all day.

# ? Mar 30, 2015 08:41

Testekill: Nov 1, 2012; I demand to be taken seriously

Diet Crack posted:

Also posting the West Coast best 22 for round 1, because why not.

code:

FB:  Bennell     Brown       Yeo
HB:  Sheppard    McGovern    Hurn
C:   Gaff        Priddis     Rosa
HF:  Sheed       Kennedy     Wellingham
FF:  LeCras      Lycett      Cripps
R:   Naitanui    Shuey       Selwood

Int: Lamb, Schofield, Nelson, Butler (sub)
Emg: Ellis, Tunbridge, Hill

If that's what we're doing then I'll probably do as close to the probably Bulldogs team as possible.

FB: M. Boyd Roughead Morris
HB: Murphy Hamling Wood
C: Jong Macrae Hrovat
HF: Grant Redpath Dahlhaus
F: Stringer T. Boyd Dickson

R: Minson Wallis Bontempelli

Int: Talia, Goodes, Picken, Cordy

Probably no Crameri as he's going to be coming in underdone and no JJ or Darley since neither have impressed me so far this preseason. Also holding back on any of our debutants since I'd rather us not rush them into our team. Caleb Daniel will be playing by round 11 though.

# ? Mar 30, 2015 08:55

Gough Suppressant: Nov 14, 2008

there are actually essendon fans trying to take the moral high ground on keefe and thomas :psyduck:

# ? Mar 30, 2015 09:17

Drugs: Jul 16, 2010; I don't like people who take drugs. Customs agents, for example - Albert Einstein

B: Laird Talia Henderson
HB: Smith Cheney Van Berlo
C: Sloane Lyons Mackay
HF: Cameron Walker Kerridge
F: Betts Jenkins Lynch
R: Jacobs Dangerfield Douglas
INT: Grigg, M.Crouch, Jaensch, Brown

MAGOOS: Podsiadly, Wright, Thompson, Hartigan, Ellis-Yolmen, Martin,

# ? Mar 30, 2015 09:21

Testekill: Nov 1, 2012; I demand to be taken seriously

Gough Suppressant posted:

there are actually essendon fans trying to take the moral high ground on keefe and thomas

One club implemented a system of illegal performance enhancing drugs that were administered to their players and refuse to fire their petulant child of a coach, the other club is Collingwood.

Don't know which side to choose.

# ? Mar 30, 2015 09:21

Drugs: Jul 16, 2010; I don't like people who take drugs. Customs agents, for example - Albert Einstein

I am cautiously optimistic

# ? Mar 30, 2015 09:21

Boonys Cut Shot: Nov 5, 2004; Elite athlete

My predicted ladder:

Sydney
Port Adelaide
Hawthorn
Gold Coast
North Melbourne
Fremantle
Richmond
Geelong
Brisbane
Adelaide
West Coast
Essendon
Greater Western Sydney
Collingwood
Melbourne
Western Bulldogs
Carlton
St Kilda

Sydney to win the flag, Gaz the Brownlow, Buddy the Coleman, Nakia Cockatoo the Rising Star.

Diet Crack posted:

Also posting the West Coast best 22 for round 1, because why not.

code:

FB:  Bennell     Brown       Yeo
HB:  Sheppard    McGovern    Hurn
C:   Gaff        Priddis     Rosa
HF:  Sheed       Kennedy     Wellingham
FF:  LeCras      Lycett      Cripps
R:   Naitanui    Shuey       Selwood

Int: Lamb, Schofield, Nelson, Butler (sub)
Emg: Ellis, Tunbridge, Hill

I wrote a West Coast preview for a website, and my best 22 (not necessarily for rd 1) was this:

code:

B:    Ellis � McGovern � Schofield
HB:    Duggan � Brown � Hurn
C:     Rosa � Priddis � Gaff
HF:    Masten � Darling � Wellingham
F:      LeCras � Kennedy � Lamb
FOLL:  Naitanui � Selwood � Shuey
INT:    Lycett � Yeo � Sheed � Cripps

Thoughts?

Boonys Cut Shot fucked around with this message at 10:10 on Mar 30, 2015

# ? Mar 30, 2015 09:53

NTRabbit: Aug 15, 2012; i wear this armour to protect myself from the histrionics of hysterical women

bitches

gay picnic defence posted:

they'll be banned for two years.

Apparently there was a change to the drugs code as of January 1, it's now 4 years

# ? Mar 30, 2015 09:58

gay picnic defence: Oct 5, 2009; I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

NTRabbit posted:

Apparently there was a change to the drugs code as of January 1, it's now 4 years

Well that's a quick way to ruin a sporting career. Even if they were crap and got dropped from the Pies (although this year sounds like it could have been the perfect time for some youngsters to get an opportunity to step up) they'd still be able to try an earn a second chance on an AFL list via the VFL/SANFL/WAFL etc. Now they'll be completely hosed and have no chance of a senior return, what a bunch of idiots.

# ? Mar 30, 2015 10:11

Gough Suppressant: Nov 14, 2008

NTRabbit posted:

Apparently there was a change to the drugs code as of January 1, it's now 4 years

cue collingwood fans crying about conspiracy theories against them

# ? Mar 30, 2015 10:13

hiddenmovement: Sep 29, 2011; "Most mornings I'll apologise in advance to my wife."

NTRabbit posted:

Apparently there was a change to the drugs code as of January 1, it's now 4 years

4 years is retardedly long though.

# ? Mar 30, 2015 10:59

Drugs: Jul 16, 2010; I don't like people who take drugs. Customs agents, for example - Albert Einstein

winners don't use drugs imo

# ? Mar 30, 2015 11:01

Gough Suppressant: Nov 14, 2008

Drugs posted:

winners don't use drugs imo

neither do losers

source: melbourne supporter

# ? Mar 30, 2015 11:06

drunkill: Sep 25, 2007; me @ ur posting; Fallen Rib

Collingwood hey?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-30/collingwood-jack-crisp-fined-for-betting-on-afl-games/6360208

quote:

Collingwood's Jack Crisp fined for gambling on AFL games, escapes suspension

Posted about an hour ago

Collingwood midfielder Jack Crisp has escaped a ban for placing bets totalling $129 on AFL markets while at former club Brisbane Lions in 2014.

The AFL fined Crisp $5,000 but he escaped a ban due to his co-operation with its investigation and he will be free to play his former club in round one.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-30/collingwood-jack-crisp-fined-for-betting-on-afl-games/6360208

How loving dumb are AFL players? I know they mostly forgo education but really, you risk your $70k+ salaries on dumb poo poo?

# ? Mar 30, 2015 11:20

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

drunkill posted:

How loving dumb are AFL players? I know they mostly forgo education but really, you risk your $70k+ salaries on dumb poo poo?

I dunno, a lot of clubs try and make their players do some kind of study or vocational poo poo, even if it's just to keep them out of trouble and to give them something to do that isn't footyfootyfootyfooty. (Usually the ones who were actually good at school as well as footy.)

If they're doing a degree it takes them a bit longer since footy is so full-on they can only do it part time, but then there's ones you can't help.

# ? Mar 30, 2015 11:24

NTRabbit: Aug 15, 2012; i wear this armour to protect myself from the histrionics of hysterical women

bitches

hiddenmovement posted:

4 years is retardedly long though.

quote:

17.2 Ineligibility for Presence, Use or Attempted Use, or Possession of
Prohibited Substances or Prohibited Method

The period of Ineligibility imposed for a violation of Clause 10.2 (presence of Prohibited
Substance or its Metabolites or Markers), Clause 10.3 (Use or Attempted Use of
Prohibited Substance or Prohibited Method) and Clause 10.7 (Possession of Prohibited
Substances and Methods) shall be as follows, subject to potential reduction or
suspension pursuant to clauses 17.4 and 17.5, or 17.6:

(a) The period of Ineligibility shall be four (4) years where:
(i) The Anti-Doping Rule Violation does not involve a Specified Substance,
unless the Player or other Person can establish that the Anti-Doping Rule
Violation was not intentional;
(ii) The Anti-Doping Rule Violation involves a Specified Substance and the
AFL can establish that the Anti-Doping Rule Violation was intentional.

(b) If Clause 17.2(a) does not apply, the period of Ineligibility shall be two (2) years.

(c) As used in clauses 17.1 and 17.3, the term �intentional� is meant to identify those
Players who cheat. The term, therefore, requires that the Player or other Person
engaged in conduct which he or she knew constituted an Anti-Doping Rule
Violation or knew that there was a significant risk that the conduct might constitute
or result in an Anti-Doping Rule Violation and manifestly disregarded that risk. An
Anti-Doping Rule Violation resulting from an Adverse Analytical Finding for a
substance which is only prohibited In-Competition shall be rebuttably presumed to
be not �intentional� if the substance is a Specified Substance and the Player can
establish that the Prohibited Substance was Used Out-of-Competition. An AntiDoping
Rule Violation resulting from an Adverse Analytical Finding for a
substance which is only prohibited In-Competition shall not be considered
�intentional� if the substance is not a Specified Substance and the Player can
establish that the Prohibited Substance was Used Out-of-Competition in a context
unrelated to sport performance.

http://s.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL%20Tenant/AFL/Files/AFL%20Anti-Doping%20Code%202015%20FINAL.pdf

Reasonably certain clenbuterol puts them squarely into clause 17.2(a)

This is basically the 2015 WADA code, they're the ones who bumped it up to 4 years

NTRabbit fucked around with this message at 11:37 on Mar 30, 2015

# ? Mar 30, 2015 11:33

drunkill: Sep 25, 2007; me @ ur posting; Fallen Rib

The Deadly Hume posted:

I dunno, a lot of clubs try and make their players do some kind of study or vocational poo poo, even if it's just to keep them out of trouble and to give them something to do that isn't footyfootyfootyfooty. (Usually the ones who were actually good at school as well as footy.)

If they're doing a degree it takes them a bit longer since footy is so full-on they can only do it part time, but then there's ones you can't help.

I know, I was meaning more secondary education. Since that is when things start to fall into place for them and then bring in alcohol when they are what, 15+ with footyclub mates and such. Not all players, of course but man, if I was a footy player I wouldn't be going out at night risking an incident during the season, then again, I am a goon :v

# ? Mar 30, 2015 11:39

Testekill: Nov 1, 2012; I demand to be taken seriously

hiddenmovement posted:

4 years is retardedly long though.

Using horse asthma medicine is retardedly stupid though.

# ? Mar 30, 2015 12:07

Chairchucker: Nov 14, 2006; to ride eternal, shiny and chrome

THUNDERDOME LOSER 2022

Drugs posted:

B: Laird Talia Henderson
HB: Smith Cheney Van Berlo
C: Sloane Lyons Mackay
HF: Cameron Walker Kerridge
F: Betts Jenkins Lynch
R: Jacobs Dangerfield Douglas
INT: Grigg, M.Crouch, Jaensch, Brown

MAGOOS: Podsiadly, Wright, Thompson, Hartigan, Ellis-Yolmen, Martin,

As in Charlie Cameron? The few times I saw him get game time last year, I really liked him, but didn't see much of him later in the year. How's he looked this preseason?

# ? Mar 30, 2015 12:36

Windmill Hut: Jul 21, 2008

Saad got 2 years for taking some pre-workout drink.

# ? Mar 30, 2015 12:36

Robodog: Oct 22, 2004; ...how does that work?

ban all afl recruiting until a player is at least 30 with a honours imo

e then ban everyone who gets recruited because theyll all be on drugs or gamblers or something

# ? Mar 30, 2015 12:42

NTRabbit: Aug 15, 2012; i wear this armour to protect myself from the histrionics of hysterical women

bitches

Chairchucker posted:

As in Charlie Cameron? The few times I saw him get game time last year, I really liked him, but didn't see much of him later in the year. How's he looked this preseason?

After getting his big start for 4 games he got a groin injury that knocked him out for 7 weeks. Came back for the last 3 games but didn't really have an impact in those dismal defeats to Richmond and North.

This was our side for the final preseason hit out though, and I expect round 1 to be very similar

quote:

IN: Ricky Henderson, Keenan Ramsey
OUT: Matthew Jaensch (managed) - will come back in, James Podsiadly, Brodie Martin, Charlie Cameron, Reilly O�Brien (all omitted)

Team of 24
2. Brad Crouch - Out for 8 weeks
3. Josh Jenkins
7. Nathan van Berlo
8. Mitch Grigg
9. Rory Sloane
11. Matthew Wright
12. Daniel Talia
13. Taylor Walker
14. David Mackay
15. Kyle Hartigan
16. Luke Brown
18. Eddie Betts
24. Sam Jacobs
25. Kyle Cheney
26. Richard Douglas
27. Tom Lynch
28. Cam Ellis-Yolmen - Probably an out
29. Rory Laird
31. Jarryd Lyons
32. Patrick Dangerfield
33. Brodie Smith
45. Ricky Henderson
46. Keenan Ramsey - Probably an out
47. Jake Kelly - Probably an out

Plus Kerridge to come in, so

Brown - Talia - Cheney
Henderson - Hartigan - Jaensch
Smith - Lyons - Mackay
Laird - Jenkins - Kerridge
Betts - Walker - Lynch
Jacobs, Dangerfield, Sloane
van Berlo, Grigg, Douglas, Wright

Crows also set a new membership record :toot:

60,383 members, up from 54,294 last year, with 43,668 of them being full 11 game members.

NTRabbit fucked around with this message at 12:56 on Mar 30, 2015

# ? Mar 30, 2015 12:51

Gough Suppressant: Nov 14, 2008

Robodog posted:

ban all afl recruiting until a player is at least 30 with a honours imo

e then ban everyone who gets recruited because theyll all be on drugs or gamblers or something

I'm gonna be graduating with honours just before I hit 30 and don't even drink :getin:

# ? Mar 30, 2015 12:54

Gough Suppressant: Nov 14, 2008

http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/video/2015-03-30/buckley-speaks-on-360

the 360 segment with buckley and roos.

apparently they were roommates when the club went to train in new zealand.

# ? Mar 30, 2015 13:06

drunkill: Sep 25, 2007; me @ ur posting; Fallen Rib

My hovercraft is full of eels :siren:

http://www.carltonfc.com.au/news/2015-03-27/blues-go-back-to-the-future

Sounds a bit silly but hey, whatever. Perhaps Fev can be our sub.

# ? Mar 30, 2015 13:08

NTRabbit: Aug 15, 2012; i wear this armour to protect myself from the histrionics of hysterical women

bitches

^^ Hoverball should be the warm up match before every game

They're going to try the steak defence

# ? Mar 30, 2015 13:09

Periphery: Jul 27, 2003; ...

Here's my round 1 best 22 for the Saints:

code:

FB: Dempster ~ Delaney ~ Geary
HB: Savage ~ Fisher ~ Newnes
C: Templeton ~ Weller ~ Riewoldt
HF: Saunders ~ Bruce  ~ Billings
FF: Lonie ~ McCartin ~ Saad
R: Hickey ~ Steven ~ Armitage

IN: Membrey ~ Dunstan ~  Acres
SUB: Sinclair

Yes, Roo will play on the wing. Yes, he will be awesome at it. :colbert:

Saunders could be swapped for Curren, we might play Longer as a genuine 2nd ruck (I hope not) but I think until we get a few back from injury that's pretty close to our best 22.

Players you've never heard of but should look out for:
Lonie (#37) - Small forward that applies lots of pressure and is real creative with the ball.
Sinclair (#40) - He played a few games with Williamstown in the VFL last year and impressed. Good kicking on both feet and just looks ready to play AFL.
Acres (#8) - 190cm prototype modern mid. Might take a few years to really get up to AFL speed but his development will be exciting to watch. Club has said that he's got the best 'athletic profile' at the club (whatever that means).

# ? Mar 30, 2015 14:02

Stumbletron: Jan 3, 2006; Anti-Stumble unit is fail!

Periphery posted:

Yes, Roo will play on the wing. Yes, he will be awesome at it.

I always thought he played his best football up the ground

# ? Mar 30, 2015 16:13

thepokey: Jul 20, 2004; Let me start off with a basket of chips. Then move on to the pollo asado taco.

NTRabbit posted:

The important thing is that I almost took Josh Thomas in the draft but didn't

lol I wonder what loving idiot got Josh Thomas in the dra .. oh wait

# ? Mar 30, 2015 16:17

Nutsngum: Oct 9, 2004; I don't think it's nice, you laughing.

Periphery posted:

Here's my round 1 best 22 for the Saints:
code:
FB: Dempster ~ Delaney ~ Geary
HB: Savage ~ Fisher ~ Newnes
C: Templeton ~ Weller ~ Riewoldt
HF: Saunders ~ Bruce  ~ Billings
FF: Lonie ~ McCartin ~ Saad
R: Hickey ~ Steven ~ Armitage

IN: Membrey ~ Dunstan ~  Acres
SUB: Sinclair  
Yes, Roo will play on the wing. Yes, he will be awesome at it.

Saunders could be swapped for Curren, we might play Longer as a genuine 2nd ruck (I hope not) but I think until we get a few back from injury that's pretty close to our best 22.

Players you've never heard of but should look out for:
Lonie (#37) - Small forward that applies lots of pressure and is real creative with the ball.
Sinclair (#40) - He played a few games with Williamstown in the VFL last year and impressed. Good kicking on both feet and just looks ready to play AFL.
Acres (#8) - 190cm prototype modern mid. Might take a few years to really get up to AFL speed but his development will be exciting to watch. Club has said that he's got the best 'athletic profile' at the club (whatever that means).

We are in no way as certain a lock for the spoon this year as people believe. Our biggest issue was leaking huge amounts of points due to a non existent backline most of the year. Considering we outscored melbourne with a one man forward line last year I think going in with about 6 options this year is going to help us a considerable amount in that regard.

# ? Mar 30, 2015 19:19

Gough Suppressant: Nov 14, 2008

the stand by hird sign at wrestlemania made an appearance on 360

# ? Mar 31, 2015 00:40

Paracausal: Sep 5, 2011; Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

Alright, nearly time, getting my schadenfreude warmed up and ready.

# ? Mar 31, 2015 03:47

snaeksikn: Feb 28, 2010

The Deadly Hume posted:

Now is a good time to get your tips in for the first round if you haven't done so.
http://www.footytips.com.au/comps/SASTips&p=goons

I'm going to be an annoying bastard and hype this every day.

FIRST GAME IS ON THURSDAY NIGHT, don't get caught out! You can actually change your tip before each game starts but it's a good idea to the whole lot at once. If you're the forgetful type I suggest filling out a few rounds in advance when you do remember, just so you don't have to cop the away teams rule.

They just made me agree to some new T&Cs so watch out for that when logging in as well.

Now NUMBERRRRS time.

As usual I enjoy throwing shitloads of numbers into the thread. I am loving terrible at fantasy leagues (so many players to keep track of) to the point where I just don't do them, but I enjoy messing around with team ratings.

To start with, my seed ratings, derived from last year's H&A results. First column of numbers is the ratings I generally burp out, second column is the absolute rating. 86.6 was the average score in the home and away rounds last season (2013 was 92), so 866 is the par.

Hopefully it'll be higher this year, but as a result, the numbers look a bit more anaemic than usual. Usually I'd say 1200 or more puts you in the premiership zone, but this time around, that threshold might be closer to 1100. Hawthorn is about 12 goals better than St Kilda.
code:
Haw	 1198 	 332 
Syd	 1161 	 295 
PA	 1095 	 229 
Frem	 1093 	 227 
Geel	  985 	 119 
NM	  970 	 104 
Adel	  966 	 100 
WC	  959 	  93 
Ess	  914 	  48 
Rich	  881 	  15 
Coll	  842 	 -24 
GC	  789  	 -77 
Carl	  768 	 -98 
WB	  677 	-189 
GWS	  632 	-234 
Melb	  608 	-258 
Bris	  591 	-275 
StK	  457 	-409 
As always, there's always a fair heap going during the off-season, so things can get wobbly in the first month. Fortunately after that the ratings start making more sense, but there's a reason why the first round is the toughest for it to track.

Yeah, it's an Excel table. I usually crunch these out using Python which also makes it easy to spit out all those strange graphs. The method I use is ridiculously simple, though - subtract one team's rating from the other, add a "travel" factor of 2 goals if required, and then adjust each team's rating by how much better or worse they did compared with the prediction.

The thing got over 70% last year, usually it gets about 66-67% correct so there must've been something weird about last season. Nevertheless, a savvy tipster will be able to beat it most of the time. I use it as a guide but of course I'll go the other way if I have a good reason to. You know, team ins-and-outs, off-field crap, the sort of thing that is omitted entirely from calculations.

For instance, I am tipping Brisbane over Collingwood, and maybe Port over Fremantle. It actually looks like a tight bunch of games, I mean the biggest predicted result is Sydney over Essendon by 6 goals. Which, if you remember what happened to Sydney in their first round last year, is nothing.

There's other things I'm going to try and implement this year (like having attack-defense ratings which would help me predict total scores as well as margins), but I need a bit of time to work on those. I'll probably start going crazy with the graphs around Round 4 maybe.

im looking at building something similar for fun and try to add in some additional weightings to see if form can be predicted. that said, you have west coast and adelaide as ranked higher then richmond and essendon? how does that work? do flat track bullies return higher values then teams who grind it out?

# ? Mar 31, 2015 04:00

gabensraum: Sep 16, 2003; LOAD "NICE!",8,1

On social media many of my Bomber-supporting friends think that the rest of us want to see Essendon burn, and that's why we don't #standbyhird. This is frustrating, because I think no reasonable footy fan wants the players to pay for wrongs done by the leadership, no reasonable footy fan wants to see the club hurt in the long term a la Carlton 2002, reasonable footy fans would rather have a strong Essendon team so that we can enjoy when our clubs beat them. We are not anti-Essendon, we are anti the people who put them in this terrible position in the first place, who on top of jeopardising the careers of young men have continued to fight a losing battle which has already cost them two seasons and possibly a third. I'll #standbyessendon, but I won't #standbyhird.

# ? Mar 31, 2015 04:01

Gough Suppressant: Nov 14, 2008

I want james hird to gently caress off but I want the players to get off more

# ? Mar 31, 2015 04:05

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 6, 2024 18:21

Lewis Skolnick: Nov 4, 2011

Channel 9 just claimed the players were found not guilty wtf

# ? Mar 31, 2015 04:07

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