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Number19
May 14, 2003

HOCKEY OWNS
FUCK YEAH


bbf2 posted:

I see your point but the only reason they voted out Kelly S over Luara was because Luara won immunity that episode, it wasn't an intentional decision.

Sure but they could have gone after John or Brett but instead targeted a cornerstone player in that alliance. Laura likely wouldn't have gotten nearly so upset about that as she did for the Kelly boot.

Voting off Mike just install Rodney on top of the blue collars and nothing changes. Now those two are going to fight and that greatly benefits the no collars.

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Homestar Runner
Oct 9, 2012

This is the best videogame
I have ever played!
Episode Recap: lol Will is a jackass



Next week's preview: hey there's Will being bamboozled by Rodney like a total muppet

GaussianCopula
Jun 5, 2011
Jews fleeing the Holocaust are not in any way comparable to North Africans, who don't flee genocide but want to enjoy the social welfare systems of Northern Europe.
Voting out Kelly was pretty smart for the simple reason that she was the only blue collar on the post-swap red tribe, which means that it's reasonable to expect that she was the person that built a relation with Carolyn. But the problem for the no-collar 3 will be that the other side is to openly fractured to fracture, amplified by the reactions of Jen/Hali/Shirin during the vote signaled everyone that they are a tight group.

Let my explain what I mean by that: Everyone in the majority alliance has a credible patch to a f3, even more so now that Kelly is voted out which weakens the core-blue group of Mike, Kelly, Dan. Borth Rodney and Sierra made it very clear that they are ready to defect from the core-blues once it is advantageous to them and found allies that they believe would facilitate such move, while it's pretty clear that anyone joining no collor would face an uphill battle at f6 and later.

Additionally the majority alliance has built trust during this tribal, with everyone voting as they said, with Will being the only person that did not have all information. This can be explained pretty easily by the fact that he was a former no-collar and they wanted to check his loyalty first, for which they payed with the lose of Kelly, which is advantageous for will in the endgame anyway.

Binary Logic
Dec 28, 2000

Fun Shoe

Robnoxious posted:

Great episode... but for gently caress sake... 'MERICA? :ughh:
"We're blue collars, we don't do creative".
It was a perfect encapsulation of Mike's style, both in how simplistic it was, and how he bulldozed the name so no one else dared to speak up and offer another option.

quote:

Jenn, Joe and Hali will be on the ropes for the next few weeks while Will plods along being useless until it's his time to go as an easy sacrifice week. I didn't think Kelly was the right play when they could have went for a guy like Mike because as we see it, Joe will be in the crosshairs until he is gone. His only hope is an immunity beast run which only sends Jenn to the briney deep so I'm conflicted on which way this should go since I like Jenn but she needs Joe around as a meat shield or she's toast.

This season is so streets ahead of last year's suckfest it's not even funny. At this point last year we were watching the Getalong Gang Alliance making polite moves and apologizing for it. :jerkbag:

edit: Also for as long as they have been at the camp with the HII still hidden, I'm surprised neither of the transplanted collars to their new camp have even thought to maybe go take a looksie around for it.

From what we saw, Joe won immunity and then sat back, not doing any recruiting. After last week I expected him to continue working on Sierra to pull her in but we didn't see any of that.
I think the NCs need to explain, maybe even draw a map for Caroline, Tyler and Sierra that staying with Mike's alliance will only result in Mike winning the game. You need to make big moves, as Jeff would say.

Binary Logic fucked around with this message at 10:34 on Apr 2, 2015

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
Merica, worst tribe name since Nobag.

And I was expecting Carolyn and Tyler to jump onto Blue Collar as soon as they brought up Carolyn and Kelly's bond. Now with Kelly gone there's less of a foundation.

Next week: people suddenly remember there are idols!

Also Carolyn for Survivor, that woman is tough as nails (or icepicks... or chainsaws? OR A BOMB)

GaussianCopula
Jun 5, 2011
Jews fleeing the Holocaust are not in any way comparable to North Africans, who don't flee genocide but want to enjoy the social welfare systems of Northern Europe.

Binary Logic posted:

I think the NCs need to explain, maybe even draw a map for Caroline, Tyler and Sierra that staying with Mike's alliance will only result in Mike winning the game. You need to make big moves, as Jeff would say.

I'm not sure how you can successfully pitch 2 people on "come over to our 4 person alliance", because anyone will see that they are 4th at best, with the 3 all being pretty good in physical challenges.

In the other group you have Tyler, Carolyn, Rodney, Mike, Dan, Sierra and Will, where everyone can form a subgroup of 3 or 4 un equal terms without much imagination. (e.g. Tyler, Carolyn, Will, Rodney). The best bet for NC is probably to try to form an alliance with WC, which would balance the group at 3 WC and 3NC.

Binary Logic
Dec 28, 2000

Fun Shoe

GaussianCopula posted:

I'm not sure how you can successfully pitch 2 people on "come over to our 4 person alliance", because anyone will see that they are 4th at best, with the 3 all being pretty good in physical challenges.

In the other group you have Tyler, Carolyn, Rodney, Mike, Dan, Sierra and Will, where everyone can form a subgroup of 3 or 4 un equal terms without much imagination. (e.g. Tyler, Carolyn, Will, Rodney). The best bet for NC is probably to try to form an alliance with WC, which would balance the group at 3 WC and 3NC.

Blue Collar bicker but as seen at this tribal council they are a solid voting block. Once Jenn and Joe are gone, Caroline and Tyler are next on the chainsaw chopping block. Maybe even sooner since Mike has been targeting 'power couples' and even though they try to hide it everyone should know by now that they are working together.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

Robnoxious posted:

This season is so streets ahead of last year's suckfest it's not even funny. At this point last year we were watching the Getalong Gang Alliance making polite moves and apologizing for it. :jerkbag:
Actually I think at this point we were watching Jeremy show down with Josh and Reed, getting saved by Julie quitting while Jon and Jaclyn waffled back and forth.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

SJDS actually had: Nadiya calling Josh one of the girls, being booted; Val claiming she had three idols, being booted; John Rocker time; Drew Christy comedy hour; merge, and Jeremy vs. Josh rounds 1 and 2; Jeremy being blindsided; "stick to the plan"; Nat balling out.

A pretty fun path from beginning to end. That said, it did feel pretty limp compared to this season. I think the players just weren't as engaging.

Dugong
Mar 18, 2013

I don't know what to do,
I'm going to lose my mind

"want me to pee on it?" :shepface:

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

Dugong posted:

"want me to pee on it?" :shepface:

Turns out killing rabbits wasn't the only thing she practiced :gonk:

blue squares
Sep 28, 2007

Next episode a the NCs will have to get really lucky to all stay, but because the majority alliance is so fractured, I don't think they can hold it together long enough to vote out Joe, Jenn, and Halli (and Shirin?) one after another. When it is down to the last one or two NCs, someone will 'make a big move' and try to take control, which could leave that final NC in a good position to try to worm their way into the final 4

Dugong
Mar 18, 2013

I don't know what to do,
I'm going to lose my mind

Will is actually terrible. I get why is being kept but at least Rodney's stupidity is causes stuff to happen.

Sand Monster
Apr 13, 2008

Dugong posted:

Will is actually terrible. I get why is being kept but at least Rodney's stupidity is causes stuff to happen.

We never saw anything to indicate he didn't get along with his tribe, and he decided to jump ship to be at the absolute bottom of another alliance. It's an infuriating play.

Poque
Sep 11, 2003

=^-^=
They didn't focus on it much, but when the original red tribe voted Nina out, they split the votes on her and Will. When they got back to camp they immediately explained it in the worst way possible, saying something like "If she had an idol we didn't want it to be one of us." I don't remember the exact quote but I remember being dumbfounded by how blunt it was. It would've made more sense to give Will some more recent interviews explaining why he would hypothetically flip on them, but that would make sense as a reason.

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

Sand Monster posted:

We never saw anything to indicate he didn't get along with his tribe, and he decided to jump ship to be at the absolute bottom of another alliance. It's an infuriating play.

In fairness, he has to know that he's at the bottom of the No Collars so there's not a whole lot he could do. At least being on the bottom of a bigger alliance gives him more room to maneuver.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

Sand Monster posted:

We never saw anything to indicate he didn't get along with his tribe, and he decided to jump ship to be at the absolute bottom of another alliance. It's an infuriating play.
Well, the No Collars got stomped in the vote except for the idol. Tyler and Carolyn went to the Blue Collars, so even with Will, the No Collars were losing. Will jumped to the winning side, and Rodney was promising him final four and I think Rodney was being sincere too, so that's not exactly the bottom.

The problem with the offer was you look at the other people he's offering it to, and I think Kelly was more loyal to Mike than Rodney, and Carolyn is more loyal to Tyler, so that final four didn't really have much chance of materializing. The only way it really works is if Carolyn and Kelly were tight enough that they wanted to get into a deal together like the one Rodney was offering, I guess... I'm not sure where Rodney got the idea to approach those people, especially considering he'd never even met Carolyn and Will before.

xbilkis
Apr 11, 2005

god qb
me
jay hova
The idea that he immediately had the undying trust of three people whose loyalty he had absolutely no reason to expect was hilarious - not to mention the weird misfits final four that Rodney picked out for himself .

I can't believe I'm saying this, but I kind of hope Rodney makes it relatively far based on this episode. As long as he's a goofy overly confident idiot instead of a constantly aggressive sexist idiot, he's good television. If the blue collar group sticks together, he's the main thing keeping tension alive.

Milovan Drecun
Apr 17, 2007
I masturbate in traffic.
Sierra said she was sweaty when she dropped from the challenge. Glad I could clear that up for the three people who were wondering.

Everything else I wanted to say was already said, so I'll just echo the idea that Jen/Hali/Joe can team with Tyler/Carolyn/Shirin and have a strong alliance which is a relatively equal power share. With a HII in the pocket, both Caroyln and Tyler making the final 4 in that group would seem plausible. Especially if you can get Shirin to figure out who the vote would be at F6, go in planning to deadlock, and then play the idol.

Sand Monster
Apr 13, 2008

Poque posted:

They didn't focus on it much, but when the original red tribe voted Nina out, they split the votes on her and Will. When they got back to camp they immediately explained it in the worst way possible, saying something like "If she had an idol we didn't want it to be one of us." I don't remember the exact quote but I remember being dumbfounded by how blunt it was. It would've made more sense to give Will some more recent interviews explaining why he would hypothetically flip on them, but that would make sense as a reason.

You're right, I forgot about that. Good point. I suppose I can see more of his logic for it then, although I agree it would have been nice to get some insight from him to go along with what is on the surface a rather major change in his gameplay.

Piell
Sep 3, 2006

Grey Worm's Ken doll-like groin throbbed with the anticipatory pleasure that only a slightly warm and moist piece of lemoncake could offer


Young Orc
Actually I think Kelly being voted out makes it more beneficial for Tyler and Carolyn to stick with the blue collars. With Mike's solid ally gone they could easily take down the Joe/Jen/Hali trio and then grab Will and Shirin to take out the remaining blue collars, or even take Rodney instead of Will.

Factor Mystic
Mar 20, 2006

Baby's First Post-Apocalyptic Fiction
Great ep, but possibly really lucky idol play. It'll be interesting to hear interviews about how Jenn knew to play it for herself.


Also, I don't see Shirin going back to the white collars, especially since she's got to know Tyler and Carolyn are tight. She felt excluded from them and while previously she was tolerated at best by the No Collars, with Will defecting and along with her statement at tribal that she's not a swing vote, she probably feels even more more solid with Jenn/Hali/Joe now than before. Even if its clear to her that she's #4 in that group, I think she'll be very unlikely to be pried away at this point.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

Joe had immunity and Will is Will, so I think Jenn pretty much knew it was Hali or herself. In that case you usually play it on yourself, so I think it was less lucky she played it than it was lucky they targeted her over Hali. Still 50/50 though, not bad odds.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

by Fluffdaddy
Jenn stated in tribal that she was playing it because she didn't want to go home yet. She knows that 3 days is a long time on Survivor and anything can happen during that time. Someone could say the wrong thing, someone could mentally/ physically break or someone could just decide to make a move.

I actually think that Jenn/Joe/Hali/Shirin are in a pretty good position right now given the amount of fractures among the other players. Rodney is surely going to get burned soon by promising pretty much everyone a final four spot and even if he doesn't he's bound to say/do something stupid. Plus he's still on a slow boil from losing control of the blues to Mike and the Joaquin vote. Despite how they voted I think Tyler/Carolyn are still floaters for the time being. Sierra is also up in the air given her previous animosity towards the rest of the blue collars. Will might be not be happy about the blues lying to him and could easily flip back to the reds. Mike had been a powerful voice but it seems like he might be losing his grasp. And Dan is totally irrelevant but he is pretty much tied to Mike.

I see a solid group of 4, two groups of 2, and 3 singles.

Zesty
Jan 17, 2012

The Great Twist
From the viewers perspective, it was pretty obvious Joe was going to be the target. Jenn was the obvious choice for the vote and I'm not surprised she picked up on it, but I'm disappointed because I just don't like her.

Omne
Jul 12, 2003

Orangedude Forever

Didn't Jen and Hali straight up say that one of them was going home and they needed to figure out who so that Jen would know who to play the idol for? Did I dream up that conversation?

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

by Fluffdaddy

Omne posted:

Didn't Jen and Hali straight up say that one of them was going home and they needed to figure out who so that Jen would know who to play the idol for? Did I dream up that conversation?

No they said it but there was no follow up to it in the edit. Maybe they tried talking to some people or maybe they didn't but we can't be sure. All we do know is that at tribal Jenn said 'I don't want to go home yet' (or something to that effect) as she played the the HII.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

Some twitter d00d (guy called Redmond) said the following people are contestants that fans will be able to vote for as potential returning players:

Kelly Wiglesworth (1)
Teresa Cooper (3)
Peih Gee Law (15)
Stephanie Valencia (22)
Mikaela Wingle (23)
Chelsea Meissner (24)
Sabrina Thompson (24)
Abi Maria Gomes (25)
Angie Layton (24)
Ciera Eastin (27)
Tasha Fox (28)
JTia Taylor (28)
KAss McQuillen (28)
Kelley Wentworth (29)

Jeff Varner (2)
Andrew Savage (7)
Shane Powers (12)
Terry Deitz (12)
Stephen Fishbach (18)
Jim Rice (23)
Troyzan Robertson (24)
Hayden Moss (27)
Brad Culpepper (27)
Vytas Baskauskas(27)
Spencer Bledsoe (28)
Cliff Robinson (28)
Woo Hwang (28)
Jeremy Collins (29)
Keith Nale (29)

Plus a few more unnamed so far, including people from s30.

Duke Jeffrie
Apr 29, 2010

Oh my god, yes, Shane Powers, he sure as hell better get in.

elgarbo
Mar 26, 2013

Duke Jeffrie posted:

Oh my god, yes, Shane Powers, he sure as hell better get in.

Yessssssssss please make it happen.

ColdBlooded
Jul 15, 2001

Ask me how to run a good team into the ground.
No Laura Alexander; list sucks.

Still, this is a stupid idea. If you want to do an all star season, just pick a bunch of people and off you go. Just don't make another horrible season with half returnees and half new people.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.

ColdBlooded posted:

No Laura Alexander; list sucks.

Still, this is a stupid idea. If you want to do an all star season, just pick a bunch of people and off you go. Just don't make another horrible season with half returnees and half new people.

They so desperately want to recapture the magic of Micronesia.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

I think it's cool. It's all one-time players and no former winners, and they're drawing people from all sorts of seasons. I could take or leave the fan vote part of it, but it could be fun watching people run campaigns.

Lone Goat
Apr 16, 2003

When life gives you lemons, suplex those lemons.




No Marty Piombo, No Peace

Nihonniboku
Aug 11, 2004

YOU CAN FLY!!!
I'm really struggling to picture most of those people. After 30 seasons, it's difficult to even remember the cast of last season let alone from some of the more boring seasons from a decade ago.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING

ColdBlooded posted:

No Laura Alexander; list sucks.

Still, this is a stupid idea. If you want to do an all star season, just pick a bunch of people and off you go. Just don't make another horrible season with half returnees and half new people.

Uh, it's going to be all returnees, so that's not a worry. And I would wager CBS/Probst/whoever the hell makes these decisions has at least a few people picked out who will make it in regardless of the vote. I'm sure they're aware of the recency effect. Honestly, I like it, though I'm worried about how it will be implemented. Still, look at the random people brought back for BvW and Caramoan. Some of them were fan favorites, some of them really weren't. This way, the audience, and especially the fans, kinda get something they may have wanted all along, the chance to shape an All-Star cast.
Of the five unknown spots, my fingers are crossed for Erinn (Tocantins), Marty (Nicaragua), and Matty (Gabon). Oh, wait, and Burton (Pearl Islands) and Darrah (Pearl Islands) who is boring, sure, but very attractive and weirdly incredible at challenges.

blue squares
Sep 28, 2007

Burton????????

ColdBlooded
Jul 15, 2001

Ask me how to run a good team into the ground.
Looking closer and :lol: at Angie Layton being on the list :wtc:

DurosKlav
Jun 13, 2003

Enter your name pilot!

Nihonniboku posted:

I'm really struggling to picture most of those people. After 30 seasons, it's difficult to even remember the cast of last season let alone from some of the more boring seasons from a decade ago.

Welcome to my world. Except in my case its always been like that. Everytime the thread starts talking about past seasons I kind of have to just skip it all because I dont remember who the hell you guys are talking about most of the time.

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Narcissus1916
Apr 29, 2013

I much prefer seasons where everyone is either new or returning. When they mix the two the chances of things going haywire are really high.

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