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Can someone with more encyclopedic knowledge than me count how many Kim's and Kelly's there has been, list who they were and their season and tally how it compares to other names in the show? Or just point me to a site that will do this.
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May 4, 2015 02:28
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xcore posted:Can someone with more encyclopedic knowledge than me count how many Kim's and Kelly's there has been, list who they were and their season and tally how it compares to other names in the show? Fun fact, every season has had at least three Kelly's, they just only show the most interesting one. Also Kelly and Kim
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May 4, 2015 02:37
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Piell posted:Fun fact, every season has had at least three Kelly's, they just only show the most interesting one. Also Kelly and Kim Thanks, the tables on that website will help. I need to remember to include Kym's, Kimmie's and Kellie's too.
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May 4, 2015 03:02
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xcore posted:Thanks, the tables on that website will help. And Kelley, lol. I think if Mike doesn't win immunity, we're going to see some pretty crazy mind games. Tyler and Carolyn will probably try some sort of play to get Mike to feel safe so he doesn't play his idol. But a plan of that kind would probably hinge on using Dan, who is a moron.
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May 4, 2015 03:13
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Codependent Poster posted:I enjoy Sierra constantly saying how she should vote out (person) and when the opportunity comes, not taking it. I think Sierra knows what she is doing. She is playing to go to the top 3 with some combination of Rodney, Dan and Will and win a popularity contest. I think it's a pretty reasonable strategy considering her position.
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May 4, 2015 04:30
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SLICK GOKU BABY posted:Obviously Mike should play the idol so the producers can rehide it and figure out a way to give Mike a clue to where the new idol is located so their pony can win the game. My optimal play strategy for mike got buried on the last page...
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May 4, 2015 06:04
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If I was Mike I'd think long and hard about holding onto the idol. It would be a massive gamble but I'm not sure what other path he has in the game. It would be near impossible for him to win out and it seems like even when the other six turn on each other they'll still see Mike as the obvious Jury Threat they need to get out of there. Finishing 7th isn't much different from finishing 6th or 5th. Normally you tell someone to live to fight another day because things change up but Mike's just too obvious a threat to let slip into the F3. Now, I have no idea if I'd have the balls to do it and risk going home with an idol in my pocket. But I'd definitely be considering right up until that moment Jeff asked.
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May 4, 2015 06:08
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I had another thought. The Rodney 4 should tell Dan, they're voting Sierra, and Sierra they're voting for Dan. Secretly they vote for Mike. If Mike plays the idol that will probably end up in a three way split between Dan, Sierra and whoever Mike votes for, which the Rodney 4 will have three votes to one on the re-vote. Mike, Dan and Sierra teaming up would break this apart, but it seems unlikely. Bit of a gamble. Safest plan is still to just vote out Dan.
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May 4, 2015 07:52
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STAC Goat posted:If I was Mike I'd think long and hard about holding onto the idol. It would be a massive gamble but I'm not sure what other path he has in the game. It would be near impossible for him to win out and it seems like even when the other six turn on each other they'll still see Mike as the obvious Jury Threat they need to get out of there. Finishing 7th isn't much different from finishing 6th or 5th. Normally you tell someone to live to fight another day because things change up but Mike's just too obvious a threat to let slip into the F3. The main reason I can think for Mike to play the idol is that he's such a physical threat. He has it in him to win a couple more immunities, and if he use the power of the idol to get out another physical threat like Tyler or Caroline it only increases his chances. Here are my current power rankings. Mike - If he makes final three he wins, and I think he has a good fist of making it there. Tyler - I think he wins against anyone except mike, but I think he is viewed as too much of a threat by the rest. I think it is only the idol that separates these two. Sierra - I think that any final three that doesn't include Tyler or Mike will be a popularity contest, and Sierra is better liked than any of the others and has done less to piss anyone off. It's kind of sad that she is number three. Mama C - This has to be close between her and Sierra, but I think that Sierra has the votes of all the sitting jurors, and probably Mike's as well. Mama C is better liked than the rest, despite her smug as hell smile and sour personality. Rodney - Basically everyone hates him, but at least he did a thing in the game. He's also genuine in his bad personality, which maybe counts for something? Dan - Dad is a loathsome fellow, and unless something truly bizarre happens has zero chance to win. Sure, he has a double vote, but I think he's far too stupid to use it effectively. He has blue collar ties and dumb loyalty as his only dubious qualities. Will - Will could have been where Sierra is if he hadn't blown up at Shirin. He's just as much as a useless lump as Dan with the disadvantage that he has never had any allies who weren't blatantly using him. Also has zero chance to win, but I think that even greater miracles must be performed (and who knows? he is a religious man after all) for him to change his fate. I think he is, however, and absolute lock for final three, because who would be dumb enough to vote him out?
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May 4, 2015 08:33
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Finally got around to watching the episode, really fun move by Mike even if his game hasn't exactly been impressive thus far. Looks like he has a legit shot at finally being the one to pull off the Terry Deitz and challenge beast the whole way through. As someone firmly in the "challenges are bullshit window dressing" camp I'd hate to see it, but Probst would lose his drat mind with excitement. Not really sure who I want to see win at this point. Definitely not Dan, Will or Carolyn. Tyler could step up and become a passable winner in the dying weeks but another week slipped past without him winning me over.. Sierra would be a bland unexciting but passable winner. Rodney would be an acceptable comedy option. The thought of him winning his first time out and claiming supremacy over Boston "Won on the fourth try" Rob would be pretty entertaining. Probst is going to be utterly unbearable if Mike wins.
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May 4, 2015 08:44
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Normally I'd agree with you, but sometimes a dude (or lady) challenge-beasting their way through the last few episodes is actually really satisfying to watch when the other players are particular shitheels. See Fabio for another example of this.
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May 4, 2015 12:33
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Anonymous Zebra posted:Normally I'd agree with you, but sometimes a dude (or lady) challenge-beasting their way through the last few episodes is actually really satisfying to watch when the other players are particular shitheels. See Fabio for another example of this. Bonus points when the other tribemates just loath the person winning out, especially if they are likable to the audience like Mike is.
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May 4, 2015 13:40
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Does Mama C still have her idol? If she does, any chance she playes it on anyone other than herself? While she is tight with Tyler, I don't know if she would be willing to keep him around to the end, especially if she see him as winning it all.
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May 4, 2015 14:37
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Orvin posted:Does Mama C still have her idol? If she does, any chance she playes it on anyone other than herself? While she is tight with Tyler, I don't know if she would be willing to keep him around to the end, especially if she see him as winning it all. Yes. The only way I could see her play it for someone else is at final five, where it's about to expire anyway, to protect one of the people that can't win (Dan or Will) from getting voted out, if she wanted to get Tyler or Rodney out.
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May 4, 2015 17:13
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At this stage it probably benefits Carolyn to see Tyler go. He's apparently a big jury threat and he and her look like a tough duo. If he goes I could easily see her being forgotten about as bigger threats like Mike and arguably Sierra are taken out. And with Dan's two vote thing I'd love to have that idol at Final Five to avoid that one extra vote blindsiding you. Plus isn't he the only one who knows she has the idol? Or did she admit to it somewhere along the line?
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May 4, 2015 18:35
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BGrifter posted:Finally got around to watching the episode, really fun move by Mike even if his game hasn't exactly been impressive thus far. Looks like he has a legit shot at finally being the one to pull off the Terry Deitz and challenge beast the whole way through. As someone firmly in the "challenges are bullshit window dressing" camp I'd hate to see it, but Probst would lose his drat mind with excitement. I feel like the editing's been the way it is to prepare us for the Second Coming of Terry Dietz. Probably. Else why would the majority alliance that seems to be on a path to endgame dominance be portrayed so consistently negative. Rodney sucks, Will sucks, Carolyn could be cool if her editing was different, but she comes across sucky, Tyler is either invisible or a gamebot jackass, Dan suuuuuuuucks. Sierra is generally likable, but her strategy makes her frustrating to watch (consisting of voting out all the likable people in order to ensure she's the only palatable winner option in the endgame).
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May 4, 2015 18:55
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this season is kind of irritating me because all the people i wanted to win are gone, and all the people i could maybe want to win if i could see more than 2 minutes of htem per episode arent getting more than 2 minutes per episode. (carolyn tyler sierra)
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May 4, 2015 19:06
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Spatula City posted:I feel like the editing's been the way it is to prepare us for the Second Coming of Terry Dietz. Probably. Else why would the majority alliance that seems to be on a path to endgame dominance be portrayed so consistently negative. Rodney sucks, Will sucks, Carolyn could be cool if her editing was different, but she comes across sucky, Tyler is either invisible or a gamebot jackass, Dan suuuuuuuucks. Sierra is generally likable, but her strategy makes her frustrating to watch (consisting of voting out all the likable people in order to ensure she's the only palatable winner option in the endgame). Sierra has a strategy?
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May 4, 2015 19:41
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She was talking to Rodney about the need to boot Tyler. I'd guess her strategy is to be in an alliance and get the people who are bigger jury threats booted
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May 4, 2015 19:59
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Wow, after reading a bunch of thoughts, I really think Mike has a VERY GOOD reason not to play his idol next week. There is a general "dumb" factor going-on, but is anyone willing to risk their own necks in the case that he plays it? And they have to think that he would be confident playing it, since he could very likely win more challenges. He's in a much better spot than I was thinking before. There aren't enough people to split votes without keeping that knowledge away from the second vote. It's a pretty hard sell to stick together and hope it's not you if Mike plays his idol. 1/6? that's not great odds. It's worse for Tyler and Caroline (who I assume Mike is clever enough to realize is his next biggest threat) The most boring, dumbo thing that could happen next week is that Mike doesn't win immunity, they all actually stick together like crazy people, and Mike doesn't play his idol. Otherwise, I think this is going to be a fabulous episode full of awesome paranoia 
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May 4, 2015 21:51
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Fast Luck posted:She was talking to Rodney about the need to boot Tyler. I'd guess her strategy is to be in an alliance and get the people who are bigger jury threats booted To be fair this would probably be my strategy too. That and giving lots of creepy too long hugs.
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May 4, 2015 21:54
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xcore posted:Can someone with more encyclopedic knowledge than me count how many Kim's and Kelly's there has been, list who they were and their season and tally how it compares to other names in the show? That's kind of a weird question because to the best of my knowledge - for Survivor aged people, Jennifer, Jessica, Kimberly, Kelly are probably the most common U.S. girl's names, though I'm sure this demographic is shifting since people starting naming their kid's after cities and other random poo poo for some reason. Add to that -Kim is an Asian surname, and also a quick American nickname for a lot of Asian names. I'm frankly surprised there haven't been more John's. I believe that also continued to be the most popular male name way after Jane went out of popularity. Hence John/Jane doe, or "john's" as anonymous men visiting prostitutes. Richard or Dick or whatever, I think probably went out phase a LITTLE before the general survivor age range. (Dick and Jane) This is all total fuzzy memory BS that I think is generally true -but I'm not arsed to look it up at the moment. (Also, pertains mostly to white people I think)
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May 4, 2015 22:02
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I think Mike will have a hard time bluffing with his idol again after the Big Alliance of Mostly Jerks already (mostly) didn't fall for it once.
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May 4, 2015 23:00
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DoggPickle posted:That's kind of a weird question because to the best of my knowledge - for Survivor aged people, Jennifer, Jessica, Kimberly, Kelly are probably the most common U.S. girl's names, though I'm sure this demographic is shifting since people starting naming their kid's after cities and other random poo poo for some reason. Add to that -Kim is an Asian surname, and also a quick American nickname for a lot of Asian names. I'm frankly surprised there haven't been more John's. I believe that also continued to be the most popular male name way after Jane went out of popularity. Hence John/Jane doe, or "john's" as anonymous men visiting prostitutes. Richard or Dick or whatever, I think probably went out phase a LITTLE before the general survivor age range. (Dick and Jane) The main reason why this is a thing because for all the Kellys in the game, very few of them have made it very far post-merge, let alone top 5. Similarly, Kim Spradlin was the first Kim to get anywhere significant. When the most famous Kelly is the special quitter, Purple Kelly (who was figuratively invisible until quitting), that's probably something.
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May 5, 2015 00:29
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Kim J made final tribal in s3!
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May 5, 2015 00:44
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Metropolis posted:I think Mike will have a hard time bluffing with his idol again after the Big Alliance of Mostly Jerks already (mostly) didn't fall for it once. Last council Mike had immunity, and it made sense not to play it for someone else. If he doesn't win immunity this week it is a completely different scenario where he would be expected to play it. The other 6 have to make other plans, and they don't have the numbers to split the vote.
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May 5, 2015 01:24
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Presumably they would split the vote that way in the off chance that Mike didn't play the idol he still goes home
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May 5, 2015 01:59
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KKKLIP ART posted:Presumably they would split the vote that way in the off chance that Mike didn't play the idol he still goes home They don't have enough numbers.
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May 5, 2015 03:14
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ASN posted:They don't have enough numbers. 6v1 and they don't have enough numbers?
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May 5, 2015 03:32
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SLICK GOKU BABY posted:6v1 and they don't have enough numbers? if you're talking split votes you're inherently giving up that 6v1 advantage since you have to split on your own. Dan's dumb but he's not Christina Cha dumb, he would not vote with a group that's splitting on him. It would only take Sierra to flip to make it 4v3 and you can't split there
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May 5, 2015 03:39
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SLICK GOKU BABY posted:6v1 and they don't have enough numbers? If they split vote, it is no longer 6v1 but 5v2. They can do a 3/2 split. If Mike plays his idol, there are two votes in play, probably for Dan. Mike and Dan have three votes between them with the extra vote. If Sierra gets on board they don't even need the extra vote. The safest play is to forget splitting the vote, and send 4 votes for whoever, not Mike. I reckon it will be Dan, but Sierra or Tyler are options too.
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May 5, 2015 06:46
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ASN posted:The safest play is to forget splitting the vote, and send 4 votes for whoever, not Mike. Of course, Mike also knows this so there's compelling reason for him not to play his idol... Wouldn't the optimal play for someone like Tyler to be to tell everyone that they need to take out Mike's idol, whether Mike plays it or holds it as his torch is snuffed. Direct all the alliance votes at Mike and then throw a sneaky vote away at Dan in case the idol is played. If the idol is produced, then they can all re-direct their votes to Dan on the re-vote.
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May 5, 2015 08:48
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elgarbo posted:Of course, Mike also knows this so there's compelling reason for him not to play his idol... No one would follow Tyler's advice because it's basically a 1 in 5 chance to get eliminated through Mikes vote or a even bigger chance that you might be the hidden second target, as Mike has made it clear that his maintarget is Tyler, so why would Tyler agree that he goes home if Mike plays the idol?
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May 5, 2015 08:54
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GaussianCopula posted:No one would follow Tyler's advice because it's basically a 1 in 5 chance to get eliminated through Mikes vote or a even bigger chance that you might be the hidden second target, as Mike has made it clear that his maintarget is Tyler, so why would Tyler agree that he goes home if Mike plays the idol? Yeah true, I suppose. I guess at this point it's all about the bluff and double bluff. I'd love to see them re-direct their vote to Dan while Mike holds onto his idol.
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May 5, 2015 09:09
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elgarbo posted:Yeah true, I suppose. I guess at this point it's all about the bluff and double bluff. I'd love to see them re-direct their vote to Dan while Mike holds onto his idol. It is a double bluff scenario, and Mike has the upper hand. No one will be writing Mike's name down this week, it is far too risky. Anyone who does deserves to go home.
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May 5, 2015 09:29
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elgarbo posted:Yeah true, I suppose. I guess at this point it's all about the bluff and double bluff. I'd love to see them re-direct their vote to Dan while Mike holds onto his idol. The "correct" strategy in the upcoming vote would be for Rodney/Sierra/Dan to tell Mike that they are voting Tyler, but be shady enough about it so that Mike still plays his idol, or don't tell him and use the double vote. This would take care of Tyler as a threat and flush Mike's idol. Later they can take out Mike at first opportunity and go into the f4 with Rodney/Sierra/Dan/Will with the final vote depending on immunity wins and jury perception.
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May 5, 2015 09:30
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ASN posted:It is a double bluff scenario, and Mike has the upper hand. No one will be writing Mike's name down this week, it is far too risky. Anyone who does deserves to go home. They probably will have to at some point to flush out the idol, sooner rather than later. Letting him hold onto it for any longer than he can is just giving him a ride to the top 4. Plus the more you wait, the more chances he has to swing people back to his side.
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May 5, 2015 11:28
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ApplesandOranges posted:They probably will have to at some point to flush out the idol, sooner rather than later. Letting him hold onto it for any longer than he can is just giving him a ride to the top 4. Plus the more you wait, the more chances he has to swing people back to his side. As long as he doesn't win immunity they can flush it at 6 just fine
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May 5, 2015 11:36
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The rest of the tribe SHOULD tell Mike that they're voting for him and try and flush that idol but they absolutely SHOULD factor him out of the equation and address the vote as if he had immunity. If any of them go home because they voted Mike than they rise up to that "Stupidest Ever" tier of debate. Rodney's crew SHOULD focus on a different target in Dan and Sierra and Dan and Sierra SHOULD finally clue into their standing in the tribe. Its just a mystery of who clues into what.
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May 5, 2015 16:37
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It's going to be pandemonium if Mike pulls out another immunity win. Because if you're Dan/Sierra and you think you can squeak out one more against Sierra/Dan before you "make your move" (whatever that is), your hand is going to be forced ahead of time.... if either of them realize that. I wonder what the chances of 2x immunity idol plays + the extra vote next tribal are.
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May 5, 2015 17:02
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