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So the original plan seemed to be Ozymandias' plan from Watchmen: have a systemic alien threat bind the idiots together and who knows: maybe wipe out enough of the lords' individual powers that Westeros can have real centralized government. After the civil war broke out too early the concern would have been that the westerosi armies would have been too weak to repel the dothraki and there would be a dark age instead of the endgame from the original plan. After Drogo died and his khal split up and the dragons were born, they lost their viable alien threat so they decided to go with a unifying good guy: from then on they worked to make the situation bad enough that people would yearn for the old days, and then they'd bring in the Targs. Viserys, Dany, and Egg didn't matter until the war started way too early and Drogo died. As for which of those Targs they cared about more, remember before Tyrion intervened Egg was on his way to Dany. The plan was probably for Dany to bring dragons and Egg to bring the Westerosi free companies. Beyond that, they want both of them to come together so they don't have to deal with more Blackfyre bullshit after the Targs are restored. No more pretenders. I doubt they seriously wanted Dany to bring a foreign army to Westeros. Before the end of Dance poo poo wasn't nearly bad enough for them to accept a foreign occupying force, and poo poo probably still isn't bad enough. And they didn't want only Aegon because like I said they didn't want Dany to roll up later and start a Blackfyre war again
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Jul 6, 2015 19:58
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visceril posted:So the original plan seemed to be Ozymandias' plan from Watchmen: have a systemic alien threat bind the idiots together and who knows: maybe wipe out enough of the lords' individual powers that Westeros can have real centralized government. Well, that's not my reading of the plan. The plan in ADWD before Tyrion sends Aegon to Westeros is to have Dany wed Aegon with Aegon being the sovereign as his claim is better than Dany's as he is supposedly Rhaegar's trueborn son and heir, on top of that you have Varys' speech to a dying Kevan about a king who was groomed to be a just ruler since birth and we know that ain't Dany, you also gotta remember that JonCon has been raising Aegon for a while, surely long before the events of AGOT, so it seems like Varys and Illyrio do back one certain claimant over the others and that claimant is obviously Aegon. Which also doesn't gel with the notion that they didn't care about the Targ claimants until poo poo hit the fan, was Aegon just a backup of backup? They had JonCon fake his own death and quit the golden company to raise and train Aegon whom they kept as a secret, it's possible that he was just a contingency but personally I think it's far more likely that he was their secret ace in the hole all along, they send Dany and Viserys on a suicide mission but keep Aegon safe until such a time where they can surround him with the most elite sellsword outfit in the world, it's true that they intend for him to meet with Dany which is a risk on its own but as he comes to her under false pretenses in the guise of her nephew they likely believe that Dany won't harm Aegon, and besides like you say with the forces she amassed and her dragons she's always going to be a threat and they know they can't protect Aegon from her forever so they might as well make the introduction early and hope for a positive outcome. In general it seems like they know that even a weakened westeros torn by civil war could resist a foreign invader even if he's backed by the golden company, they know Dany can take Westeros with her dragons and they believed that Drogo would be able to at the very least cripple the kingdom and and force the nobles to hide with their armies inside their gated castles, assuming that they had some way to get rid of Dothraki later this could also provide them the means to install Aegon.
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Jul 6, 2015 20:33
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Varys lies about caring about the realm, he's a Targaryen/Blackfyre loyalist (who knows, whichever, it doesn't matter). He's willing to completely wreck the kingdom, leading to tens of thousands of deaths, if he can set up Dany and/or Aegon on the throne. It's too bad because it would genuinely be interesting to have a character who really cares about the realm (Tyrion, perhaps?), but he's a partisan just like anyone else.
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Jul 6, 2015 20:57
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I don't think we've been given enough information about Varys to figure out his grand plan yet. Him being a Blackfyre supporter or whatever doesn't really jive with me, it seems like Varys was already very comfortable in King's Landing and he doesn't seem like a particularly prideful or patriotic or loyal guy. I still wonder what he thinks he's going to gain with Aegon in power that he didn't already have with Robert or Tywin around. A lot of people take him at face value about "doing what's best for the realm" and it's echoed by what Varys tells Kevan about Aegon on the way out, but I don't really believe that Varys is much of an altruist. This is someone who came up as a Prince of Thieves and has a vast network of muted spies that he probably kills once they reach a certain age. Varys is painted as a good guy but really he's pretty much doing the exact same things as Littlefinger, just in different areas. In fact the two guys are running parallel plays in the books to the point where the last time I read them I was convinced the two were actually working together. It's amazing how frequently they're not only not getting in each other's way but actually working toward the same goals. Littlefinger and Varys both goad Ned into looking into the Lannisters and politically over-extending himself. Varys always appears to advise caution but when he does he drops some extra info that pushes Ned forward. Book two Varys and Littlefinger are in Stop Stannis Mode, Varys aids Tyrion in any way he can on the domestic front while Littlefinger goes abroad and secures allies in the Tyrells. Book three Varys and Littlefinger line up Lannisters like dominoes. Littlefinger arranges for the Joffrey poisoning and kills Sansa. Varys is supposedly forced by Jaime to free Tyrion, but whether or not that's the case, he all but pulls Tyrion's crossbow trigger for him by sending him into the Tower of the Hand. Books four and five we have the two working on different regions of the world. Littlefinger set up fake Arya for the Boltons but has the real Lady of Winterfell tucked away in the Vale; Varys does nothing while Cersei destabilizes King's Landing and then steps in only to keep KL from stabilizing again, so that Aegon can swoop in. There's a line near the end of AFFC by Littlefinger in which he implies he had a bunch of plans brewing but he expected to have a few extra years for them to pan out. It's suggested in the text that it's Cersei loving things up too fast that's the problem, but he could also be talking about Aegon's early and unexpected arrival in Westeros (originally Aegon was going to track down Dany). If Littlefinger can contrive to wed Sansa to Aegon, he could bring in a huge fold of the kingdom to their cause and he would have the Queen of Westeros under his influence.
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Jul 6, 2015 21:43
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I don't see why Varys would lie about his intentions in what was basically a soliloquoy. (omit sure, blackfyre is reasonable, but not lie)
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Jul 6, 2015 21:46
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emanresu tnuocca posted:Well, that's not my reading of the plan. I largely agree with this. Aegon was meant to be the final king in every scenario, and they were banking on Viserys committing suicide by Dothraki and Dany getting killed in a really obvious "ROBERT DID IT" way to get Drogo to invade. I don't think Varys and Ilyrio would count on the feminine wiles of a child to seduce a warlord to go conquer some place his people have never even dreamed of going. To elaborate, I think in the AGOT stage of the plan Viserys would kill himself (as he did) and Dany would get assassinated, enraging Drogo and getting him to seek vengeance. The nobles would behave the way Jorah described they would--the Neds would all get themselves killed fighting the Dothraki while the vast majority of the assholes sit behind be walls and all become as unpopular as Cersei. Eventually they'll run out of food and gold for their soldiers, and they'll all desert to Aegon and his fresh and best army in the world Golden Company. Ends with Aegon ruling without any pretenders or petty lords to ever get in the way ever again. Only difference now is Dany is too powerful to assassinate or ignore but her army is too swarthy to be accepted by the masses and on top of that she's way less competent than Egg quote:In general it seems like they know that even a weakened westeros torn by civil war could resist a foreign invader even if he's backed by the golden company, they know Dany can take Westeros with her dragons and they believed that Drogo would be able to at the very least cripple the kingdom and and force the nobles to hide with their armies inside their gated castles, assuming that they had some way to get rid of Dothraki later this could also provide them the means to install Aegon. The other thing about Aegon is that the Golden Company isn't foreign--it's an all-Westerosi free corps made of Blackfyre loyalists, and even for people that supported mainline Targs people like Bittersteel are spoken of in the same tones as Barristan, Duncan the Tall, Arthur Dayne, and Rhaegar. I think the only other "not-foreigners" company is the Second Sons.
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Jul 6, 2015 22:27
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Varys probably sees the main threat to the realm as the constant infighting between nobles and pretenders. "The realm" is the state, not the people. He's an absolutist, not a revolutionary
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Jul 6, 2015 22:29
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I think their plan was for Viserys to rule as a tyrant, allowing Aegon to ride in as a hero. Baron Harkonnen has a similar plan in Dune. He orders the nephew he doesn't care about to brutalise the populace of a planet, hoping to eventually send his favourite nephew in to depose him and be heailed as a hero in comparison.
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Jul 6, 2015 22:47
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I doubt even the Lannisters could pay people enough money to follow Viserys, and Tywin bankrolling a Targaryen restoration is more believable than Viserys inspiring either loyalty or fear in anyone over the age of 13
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Jul 6, 2015 22:56
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You might could say that Viseris is "of the night" in that sense. The most dangerous man in all of Essos
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Jul 6, 2015 22:57
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visceril posted:Stuff Yeah, that's pretty much what I'm thinking. If GRRM will ever sit down to write another novel we might find out how it all pans out, Aegon is quite clearly the 'mummer's dragon' and the vision at the house of the undying (a cloth dragon being carried by a cheering mob) suggests to me that he will win the throne only to be unseated by Dany, as there's no way she's gonna fall for this Blackfyre poo poo, the dragons will recognize him for what he really is or something along those lines. The fact that the tv show removed Aegon altogether also suggests to me that Varys and Illyrio are gonna wind up supporting Dany in some way, even if she kills their champion, it's not like they're gonna have any options at that point plus the white walkers should make their play by the time that happens.
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Jul 6, 2015 23:14
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Alright you nerds have made cloth out of thin air fair enough, can you guys make up a reason for why TV Littlefinger would want to put Sansa in with the Boltons?
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Jul 6, 2015 23:39
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Shageletic posted:Alright you nerds have made cloth out of thin air fair enough, can you guys make up a reason for why TV Littlefinger would want to put Sansa in with the Boltons? So that the show could stick sansa together with theon and ramsay instead of having her off doing her own solo plot in a series of new sets with out any other recurring characters to support her, they just gave her the Jeyne Poole plot and that's about as far as anyone should read into it.
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Jul 6, 2015 23:43
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Shageletic posted:Alright you nerds have made cloth out of thin air fair enough, can you guys make up a reason for why TV Littlefinger would want to put Sansa in with the Boltons? it's loving metal we don't have enough reason to hate him he's a whore monger show finger is dumb show writers are dumb covering his bases in the north, maybe if sansa gets all reeked up she'll look kindly on old uncle finger? book stannis is going to loving torch ramsay so idk, just a total schism going on here afaict
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Jul 6, 2015 23:45
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emanresu tnuocca posted:This is true but I think it's implied that while Varys considers Tyrion to be a useful and resourceful man he is also quite fine with Tyrion being executed for a crime he didn't commit, after all releasing Tyrion was hardly something he was planning to do if it wasn't for Jaime's intervention, so he clearly doesn't really care all that much and on top of that aiding Tyrion in that fashion would strengthen the Lannisters grasp of the throne, which is something Varys clearly doesn't want, he kills Kevan for being a competent ruler, he likes Tyrion and wanted Tyrion to fend Stannis' invasion but he doesn't want him in charge of King's Landing for a long enough period of time that he could stabilize the realm. As for why Varys doesn't take more direct action against Littlefinger, I don't think there's enough info in the novels to make a good enough guess. How would Tyrion's escape in any way aid the Lannisters? To everyone else it would look like the king just let his uncle escape prison to avoid execution and that it was basically a gift from Tommen as a thank you for making him king by killing his brother. Tyrion murdering Tywin changes things (and helps Varys greatly) in that regard but it also does even more damage because the head of the family and the real power has just been removed, leaving a boy king and his idiot mother in charge once more. Varys absolutely wants the realm stable, but he simply doesn't see the Lannisters as being able to stabilize it and that they'd only continue the problems that've plagued the kingdom since Robert's Rebellion. There's no reason to think Varys isn't being pretty sincere when he explains things to Kevan. If he trusts his little birds enough to use them to take out a grand maester and king's hand he sure as poo poo isn't going to be worried about them running off to tell people what their master just told a dying man. A GLISTENING HODOR posted:Varys is the sole character who is pure good. (Not counting if Bran ends up being so) Varys is the Amanda Waller of Westeros. They act for what they consider the greater good and they will do whatever it takes to reach that goal. Shageletic posted:Alright you nerds have made cloth out of thin air fair enough, can you guys make up a reason for why TV Littlefinger would want to put Sansa in with the Boltons? Character consolidation. Sansa's playing the role of not-Arya and might end up playing Stoneheart's role (unlikely probably) depending on how things go with the escape.
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Jul 6, 2015 23:48
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No, no what I meant is I already know why the show did it (for bad reasons). But is there a way that this actually benefits Littlefinger vis a vis his goals (burning the world down?). IDK.
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Jul 6, 2015 23:52
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hmmm. In the books he stays in the Vale to consolidate his hold on the place. In the show he doesn't have to do that because the Vale lords in the show are dumb af and don't have cool castles or bad pussies. So, he's got the East and a foothold in tbe Riverlands. What's next? He could try and wrestle all of the Riverlands away from the Freys. The show Vale might fight because they're really dumb, but beyond everyone hating the Freys there's no reason for them to break their longstanding isolationism. and even if they did fight the best he can do at the moment is restore Edmure. To claim it through Sansa he's have to kill both Edmure and Blackfish and the latter won't go down easy. As if that wasn't enough, he wouldn't be able to justify putting a Stark loyalist back in charge to the Lannisters. Weak as they are, LF wants direct, legitimate control. The only way for him to expand now is to use Sansa to take the North. Putting a Stark in Winterfell is a slam dunk, and with the North and East he could pinch the Freys out and while the Lannisters are busy playing with Flowers and Sparrows the Mokingbird will conquer a contiguous half of Westeros. Even in the books it makes sense for him to go North. Stannis wants a Stark so he might even ask LF for Sansa.
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Jul 7, 2015 00:43
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As for giving Sansa to Rapesy Bolton, as people have said he was until extremely recently a bastard, ie someone worthless. Also worth noting is that as good as littlefinger is at manipulating people he knows, he only knows people he hangs with or people that frequent his brothels. Varys has birds and he has whores. So he has Intel on most of the storm lords, reach lords, Lannister pals, and most everyone. Ramsay and Roose seem like the kind of guys who'd rather pay the iron price than the gold price when it comes to poon, so he probably doesn't know much about them beyond "typical northerners, smart enough to pick the winning side (and therefore smart enough to not kill Sansa)"
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Jul 7, 2015 01:02
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visceril posted:hmmm. Pretty sure his plan is explicitly laid out in the book, he plans on marrying Sansa to Harry the heir while killing Robert Arryn. That way he is liegelord of the Riverlands while being strongly allied to the heir of the Vale and who he assumes is the heir of Winterfell. He says he plans on raising armies and taking the North back from the Boltons by force. In the show he sends Sansa to Ramsay to get raped and to give the Boltons more legitimacy I guess? It doesn't make sense
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Jul 7, 2015 01:53
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A Typical Goon posted:Pretty sure his plan is explicitly laid out in the book, he plans on marrying Sansa to Harry the heir while killing Robert Arryn. That way he is liegelord of the Riverlands while being strongly allied to the heir of the Vale and who he assumes is the heir of Winterfell. He says he plans on raising armies and taking the North back from the Boltons by force. In the show he is the guardian of the heir of the Vale and liege lord of the Riverlands. He gave Sansa to the Boltons, told him he's got their back, then ran to Cersei and told her that he'd get rid of their treacherous asses (using Vale soldiers) if she made him Warden of the North. If his plan works then he has 3 of the 7 Kingdoms in his pocket, and then he can trade the Tyrells his loyalty in exchange for being Warden of the West or whatever from the Lannisters.
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Jul 7, 2015 02:00
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Deciphering Vary's "real" motivations would require: 1) His motivations have been communicated to us by the author ( however subtly ) 2) His motivations are internally consistent, and have been properly edited to remove oversights and errors 3) The author knows what those motivations are, and where they will lead #2 and #3 seem highly unlikely
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Jul 7, 2015 05:37
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computer parts posted:In the show he is the guardian of the heir of the Vale and liege lord of the Riverlands. He gave Sansa to the Boltons, told him he's got their back, then ran to Cersei and told her that he'd get rid of their treacherous asses (using Vale soldiers) if she made him Warden of the North. You officially win the no-prize.... kcroy posted:Deciphering Vary's "real" motivations would require: ....if anyone associated with GoT gave a poo poo about long term arcs.
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Jul 7, 2015 14:47
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when you have a character whose stated m.o is "gently caress poo poo up, ..., profit" and the politics, geography and even the capabilities of each character change with each episode to suit the needs of the paper thin plot you don't really need much more than "oh he screws cersei, but he screws the boltons as well, and oh it actually turns out he never cared about sansa anyway and incidentally he doesn't care about her snitching about him and tyrells murdering joffrey cause reasons, and now he's got an army to march north, or does he? gotta keep you guessing" that's why i said reading any deeper into this whole thing is futile, he sent Sansa up north so she could get screen time, the in world justifications are very arbitrary and only make sense cause the show goes "this makes sense, accept it" (i.e, he doesn't "know" about ramsay, he doesn't care about sansa, he isn't concerned about cersei etc etc, none of these things actually make sense but he states them on the show matter of factly so you gotta go 'sure why not'). lucky for him Sansa is a master lockpick.
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Jul 7, 2015 17:14
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Everybody knows how to pick a lock with a corkscrew. Thats like day one poo poo man.
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Jul 7, 2015 18:38
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http://www.ibtimes.com/author-george-rr-martin-addresses-reports-he-has-finished-winds-winter-1996443 I initially read this headline as "Author George RR Martin Reports That He Has Finished 'The Winds Of Winter'" But no... it's actually reporting that he has addressed those reports. Newsworthy.
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Jul 7, 2015 20:34
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Four Finger Wu posted:http://www.ibtimes.com/author-george-rr-martin-addresses-reports-he-has-finished-winds-winter-1996443 GRRM surprises literally no one by revealing that he doesn't write
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Jul 7, 2015 21:13
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Solice Kirsk posted:Everybody knows how to pick a lock with a corkscrew. Thats like day one poo poo man. Hah who's the dork who missed day one lockpicking?
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Jul 7, 2015 21:23
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mind the walrus posted:Hah who's the dork who missed day one lockpicking? Some poor sonofabitch. Probably missed the second day when they showed everyone how to start a car with a screwdriver too.
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Jul 8, 2015 02:00
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mind the walrus posted:Hah who's the dork who missed day one lockpicking? His name rhymes with leak, as in thats what his piss does down his leg now that he got no pipe to go with the plumbing
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Jul 8, 2015 02:03
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savinhill posted:His name rhymes with leak, as in thats what his piss does down his leg now that he got no pipe to go with the plumbing the doors on Ramsay's kennels "pointers" and "setters" are very problematic for reek
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Jul 8, 2015 02:08
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So did the next book not come out?
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Jul 8, 2015 10:12
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Dr. Video Games 0112 posted:So did the next book not come out? Funny you should ask! From today! quote:... I am thrilled to report that we've completed and delivered the latest Wild Cards mosaic novel, HIGH STAKES. The day before I left for Chicago, I shipped off the massive (truly) manuscript to Diana Pho, our new editor at Tor.
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Jul 8, 2015 10:22
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kcroy posted:Funny you should ask! From today! Owned by GRRM. When will these nerds learn?
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Jul 8, 2015 12:08
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Hasn't he run out of loving poker phrases yet?
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Jul 8, 2015 14:04
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HBO should do an april fools Wild Cards episode in place of GoT and not tell anyone.
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Jul 8, 2015 15:16
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I like a lot of the discussion here about Varys and Littlefinger. Their motivations, plans, and arcs are among the most mysterious and interesting in the book because they both are very competent, very powerful, and very duplicitous. It may just be because GRRM doesn't know but trying to figure out Littlefinger's endgame is really tough. I would say that it is different from Varys. Varys does not seem to be aiming for personal power but for Egg/Dany power. I think that LF may actually be going for the Iron Throne itself. He comes from nothing, builds a financial empire, and now is growing in political power. I'm going to be so disappointed when we only get the show version of their final acts.
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Jul 8, 2015 15:18
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A GLISTENING HODOR posted:Owned by GRRM. When will these nerds learn? read the comments. they are infuriating. and always make me want to punch him. http://grrm.livejournal.com/432364.html
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Jul 8, 2015 15:52
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Junkenstein posted:Hasn't he run out of loving poker phrases yet? No, but when that does happen he has some strip poker phrases for a switch to full Wild Cards erotica
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Jul 8, 2015 15:54
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so yeah grrm writing and editing these wildcard books no sane person would ever read is something i've long since come to terms with, but does he seriously need to respond to every single comment on his not-a-blog? what an absolute fucker.
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Jul 8, 2015 15:58
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Dr. Video Games 0112 posted:So did the next book not come out? its funny every time
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Jul 8, 2015 16:00
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