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Phlegmish posted:I don't think the conditions are right in Tunisia. There might be a lot of radicalized young men, but the general population does not really seem interested in Islamic fundamentalism. Even the fairly moderate Islamist party did not do well during the last election. Disagree, the failure is more the result of the rapid collapse of the regime and replacement by a transition unity government as opposed to a collapse of societal order. Tunisia did not see a growth of internal radical groups attempting to take over not because of population differences, but because the absence of governance was relatively brief. It also has to be said that the commitment of Ennahada to working within the government is very relevant. this has worked out well for them obviously as despite their slide in the latest election they're still part of the government coalition with the main secular party. Another key factor would be the relative weakness of the Tunisian security state both in size and the fact the prior government did come into power from the military.
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Jul 26, 2015 14:43
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Phlegmish posted:I don't think the conditions are right in Tunisia. There might be a lot of radicalized young men, but the general population does not really seem interested in Islamic fundamentalism. Even the fairly moderate Islamist party did not do well during the last election. They won the first time around, i guess those who went to join ISIS were disenchanted with the Islamists in Tunisia not being dicks to the other political groups and bowing out with grace when the time came.
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Jul 26, 2015 14:50
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baw posted:Serious question: Non-serious answer.
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Jul 26, 2015 15:06
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Fizzil posted:They won the first time around, i guess those who went to join ISIS were disenchanted with the Islamists in Tunisia not being dicks to the other political groups and bowing out with grace when the time came. also, it bears mentioning, the tunisian islamists not being brutally suppressed, thus allowing for a more "social" islamism to manifest itself as a clear alternative to going out and murdering people
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Jul 26, 2015 15:14
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TheBalor posted:They've stated that one of their goals, insane as it may seem, is to provoke the USA and other Western nations to invade directly. Taking out a major American proxy would go a long way towards that. The YPG aren't a "major American proxy," and I don't think ISIS actually would be very happy if they accomplished this. It's kind of like that manifesto that one ISIS bigwig released. When he's speaking to the people of earth, he talks about how ISIS can fight anyone and they want to fight the crusaders so they can kick their rear end and save the Muslims of the world. Then in another part when he's talking to god, he's like "O Allah you know our problem. We can't stop their jets.  " They want to appear as though they're eager and willing to fight the West directly, but they aren't eager to actually go about losing all of their physical holdings and taking huge casualties.
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Jul 26, 2015 15:55
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Frankly, Tunisians should rejoice for their high rate of militant contribution to Daesh. Any Tunisian radical Islamist meeting their ignominious end in some forgotten Kurdish village is a net gain for Tunisian democracy.
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Jul 26, 2015 15:56
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V. Illych L. posted:also, it bears mentioning, the tunisian islamists not being brutally suppressed, thus allowing for a more "social" islamism to manifest itself as a clear alternative to going out and murdering people this, incidentally, is also why supporting the ouster of the muslim brotherhood in egypt is a really dumb thing to do if you're worried about militant islam as a political force
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Jul 26, 2015 15:58
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Are fighters fleeing ISIS after all their recent losses? What happens once they manage to arrive back home and people figure out where they've been?
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Jul 26, 2015 15:58
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goose fleet posted:Are fighters fleeing ISIS after all their recent losses? What happens once they manage to arrive back home and people figure out where they've been? this is currently A Matter of Debate in several countries, including my own. a "deprogramming" center was proposed for people who wanted to get out of ISIL, to objections that we were essentially throwing money at The Worst People In The World
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Jul 26, 2015 16:01
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Phlegmish posted:It seems to me that Turkey was initially at least tolerant of ISIS, especially in the murky early stages when it wasn't yet fully clear that it wasn't just another jihadist group. Their policy since the beginning has been to let people freely cross the border to gently caress poo poo up for Assad, no matter their ideology, and that hasn't changed up until very recently. That's the reason Volkerball is defending Turkey on this. If toppling Assad is your only concern and you don't care about ISIS either way, then their strategy to keep the borders porous is completely sound and reasonable. Yeah. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems like Turkey has, to put it kindly, dragged its feet over IS. Jihadist fighters were flowing over the border in large number for years, and it was only after a bunch of international bitching that they finally moved troops to the border and talked about securing it. They were slow to do anything over Kobane, they've not been helping out the US in the anti-IS campaign until very recently. Now that they seem to be cracking down on IS they're doing the same with the PKK and its affiliate groups. Which smells like some internal compromise to me: I can imagine Erdogan's more hardline/islamist advisors saying IS/Nusra worth supporting if it ousts Assad, while the PKK are more like the real enemy. Don't bomb them but ok if you have to you might as well bomb these other guys too, don't want to single anyone out here. Yes this paragraph is pure speculation. What does the thread know about the Turkish intelligence service (MIT)? What sort of people are they? What role have they played in the conflict?
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Jul 26, 2015 16:03
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http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/27/world/middleeast/assad-in-rare-admission-says-syrias-army-lacks-manpower.html?_r=0quote:BEIRUT, Lebanon — In a striking admission, President Bashar al-Assad of Syria said on Sunday that the country’s army faced a manpower shortage and had ceded some areas to insurgents in order to hold onto other regions deemed more important.
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Jul 26, 2015 17:04
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Volkerball posted:The YPG aren't a "major American proxy," and I don't think ISIS actually would be very happy if they accomplished this. It's kind of like that manifesto that one ISIS bigwig released. When he's speaking to the people of earth, he talks about how ISIS can fight anyone and they want to fight the crusaders so they can kick their rear end and save the Muslims of the world. Then in another part when he's talking to god, he's like "O Allah you know our problem. We can't stop their jets. And the places where ISIS was making their biggest gains against Kurds were not in Iraqi Kurdistan, but to most people the distinction was blurry. If they could have secured full control over Kobane canton, it would have been a big blow to the idea of Kurdish fighting strength in the West, and made it that much harder to secure international support. Most people would neither know nor understand that it wasn't "we love coalition soldiers" Kurds who were on the ropes. They'd just hear that Kurds are being overrun. Also, in that same speech, in the very next line, he implores God to have the crusaders fight them on the ground and not the sky. TheBalor fucked around with this message at 17:21 on Jul 26, 2015 |
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Jul 26, 2015 17:16
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Count Roland posted:Yeah. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems like Turkey has, to put it kindly, dragged its feet over IS. Jihadist fighters were flowing over the border in large number for years, and it was only after a bunch of international bitching that they finally moved troops to the border and talked about securing it. They were slow to do anything over Kobane, they've not been helping out the US in the anti-IS campaign until very recently. Unfortunately, it goes a bit beyond that. Remember that time when the US raided the office of that IS guy responsible for overseeing oil trade and captured a bunch of documents? Yeah, it turns out most of his customers were Turks. quote:In the wake of the raid that killed Abu Sayyaf, suspicions of an undeclared alliance have hardened. One senior western official familiar with the intelligence gathered at the slain leader’s compound said that direct dealings between Turkish officials and ranking Isis members was now “undeniable”. And IS is not the only radical Islamist group Turkey supports either: quote:However, Turkey has openly supported other jihadi groups, such as Ahrar al-Sham, which espouses much of al-Qaida’s ideology, and Jabhat al-Nusra, which is proscribed as a terror organisation by much of the US and Europe. “The distinctions they draw [with other opposition groups] are thin indeed,” said the western official. “There is no doubt at all that they militarily cooperate with both.” So it's very interesting to see IS propaganda vehicles denouncing Turkey and Erdogan in the last two months. What changed? fspades fucked around with this message at 18:27 on Jul 26, 2015 |
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Jul 26, 2015 18:25
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People are putting way more strategic thought into ISIS' invasion of Kurdish territory than ISIS has. It was more a matter of piecemeal, ad-hoc attacks and skirmishes that turned into broad front offensives in different locations and different times, which eventually resulted in all of the Kurds being at war with all of ISIS. There was lots of low-level fighting for the past decade between Al-Qaeda in Iraq and the Peshmerga, and when ISIS took territory and formed their current grip on power, they were still chucking car bombs at Kurdish cities and having skirmishes with Kurdish forces. They were also constantly having skirmishes and shootouts with Kurds in Syria, as they have with all the other rebel groups including even al-Nusra. The ISIS offensive towards Erbil in Iraq that triggered US intervention was in response to a Shiite offensive against ISIS territory launched from Kurdish territory. Their offensive against Kobane came later and was a strategic move to consolidate their control of the Turkish border. In both cases they didn't anticipate the US would begin a large-scale bombing campaign against them. Jihadist groups have very consistently under-estimated the US threshold for military response.
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Jul 26, 2015 18:56
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baw posted:Serious question: Really it only depends on the audience's understanding of these acronyms. "NATO and the USA are using radars and lasers to fight ISIL" has five acronyms but nobody would have much trouble understanding it. "HYP and KOB are using TRUGs and DERFs to fight JUTY" is pure nonsense, even though it's the exact same sentence, just replacing the known acronyms by random letters.
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Jul 26, 2015 20:27
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Those loving JUTY freaks deserve all the DERFs we can drop on them.
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Jul 26, 2015 21:01
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fspades posted:Unfortunately, it goes a bit beyond that. Remember that time when the US raided the office of that IS guy responsible for overseeing oil trade and captured a bunch of documents? Yeah, it turns out most of his customers were Turks. I'd like to see this corroborated by another source from someone else before I buy it 100%, but that's still pretty damning. The stuff about Turkish nationals buying ISIS oil is nothing new though. In other news, the YPG must be feeling the pressure from the Turkish strikes on the PKK, because Saleh Muslim has opened the door to a formal alliance with the Assad regime. It's in Arabic. https://rojavanews.com/arabic/index.php/ku/item/6229-rojavanews I've seen a few different translations of his exact statement, but the gist seems to be "We are willing to join the SAA, but only if the regime adopts a new, non-Baath mentality. Either the YPG is giving up on the canton dream, or Saleh is dumb enough to believe that even if things went perfectly according to plan and Assad conquered Arab opposition to his rule, that the regime who denied their citizenship for 50 years and has made very clear that they will live and die solely for the preservation of Souriyah al-Assad, wouldn't immediately remind them just how "autonomous" Rojava really is. Whatever the case, this is rapidly devolving into a good old fashioned gently caress every single one of you Middle Eastern clusterfuck. The PYD have been happy collaborators at times with the regime, which is disgusting enough, but to piss all over the legacy of Halabja by openly siding with a genocidal maniac on par with Saddam simply because his victims aren't Kurds? Nationalism is the worst.
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Jul 26, 2015 21:25
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Volkerball posted:In other news, the YPG must be feeling the pressure from the Turkish strikes on the PKK, because Saleh Muslim has opened the door to a formal alliance with the Assad regime. It's in Arabic. Not quite what it says, they said they would make an alliance if Assad abandoned Baathism and made reforms.
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Jul 26, 2015 21:41
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Given all of the moaning and groaning regarding the Iran deal, that Iran won't honor it, that it'll kick off Holocaust 2: Electric Boogaloo, are there any good resources to the terms of the deal and how it will be enforced?
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Jul 26, 2015 22:42
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In his public speech recognizing the manpower shortages of the Syrian Army, Bashar Assad issued a general amnesty for draft-dodgers and deserters. They're hurting for soldiers bad and shitloads of people have been avoiding conscription or abandoning their units. Can't say I blame em. They're being given minimal training and thrown into a fight with very well-armed, motivated Islamist veterans. I wonder just how many SAA grunt veterans are still alive from the core of the army after this many years of brutal fighting and high casualty rates. In a grinding war like this, firepower is nice but with all their captured gear and foreign sugar-daddies the rebels aren't equal but good enough, and they have an almost endless supply of pissed off Sunnis to fill the ranks. Sunnis that've lost their homes, lost their kids, got nothing else to lose.
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Jul 26, 2015 23:14
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It's amazing that Assad is still standing after four years. This has lasted as long as the Spanish Civil War at this point.
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Jul 26, 2015 23:33
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It's just as big of a mess as it, too!
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Jul 26, 2015 23:42
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Dr. Killjoy posted:Given all of the moaning and groaning regarding the Iran deal, that Iran won't honor it, that it'll kick off Holocaust 2: Electric Boogaloo, are there any good resources to the terms of the deal and how it will be enforced? I'd recommend all the episodes Charlie Rose has done covering the Iranian deal for a wide variety of American perspectives on what constitutes a good deal, a bad deal, and what technical mechanisms matter the most due to Iran's propensity to cheat on past deals.
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Jul 27, 2015 00:34
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Oh joy. Turkish forces are attacking the YPG. https://twitter.com/SerioSito/status/625425885353648128 quote:Reports of Turkish Army attacking #YPG in Kobane. If true this would be a major escalation #TwitterKurds quote:.@AmedDcle reporting (according to YPG Kobane Command) TSK shelled YPG at Zor Mixar and opened fire on a YPG vehicle at Til Findir. quote:#YPG: Yesterday night (26th July) Turkish tanks destroyed one of our vehicles in the village Til Findire, west of Girê Spî (Tal Abyad) The YPG has a response: https://twitter.com/cahitstorm/status/625436289903534080 quote:Ypg commandment statement after turkish agression in Kobane canton: next time u hit us, we will retaliate.  Translation, courtesy of reddit: quote:To the media and public opinion! Turkish army tanks shelled our positions in the village of Zormîxarê west of Kobani, opposite the city Jarabulus at 4:30 on July 24, 2015, injuring four FSA fighters and some civilians in that village. Today at 22:00 the Turkish army shelled our units' positions with 7 tank shells. At 23:00 today the Turkish army fired shots at a vehicle west of Gire Spi (Tal Abyad) in the village of Til Findirê. You stupid, stupid motherfuckers, why would you do this? What the gently caress does Erdogan/the Turkish government possibly think it's going to get by attacking the YPG? Shelling the PKK is dumb but is at least slightly understandable because of the whole Turkey-PKK conflict and because the US probably wouldn't stick its neck out for the PKK. But attacking the US-backed YPG is a whole other level of stupidness.
fade5 fucked around with this message at 02:42 on Jul 27, 2015 |
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Jul 27, 2015 02:32
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Cake Smashing Boob posted:What's the odds on them loving up the kurds, and nothing else? Volkerball posted:slim to none? 
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Jul 27, 2015 02:33
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I'd guess that this is an attempt at playing domestic politics from the AKP, maybe? It seems incredibly risky either way. It seems like they would risk actually giving the CHP increased legitimacy as negotiating partners with the Kurdish fighters, especially if motivated into doing so by the prospect of support from the HDP. If there is going to be a re-election, this is a very high-stakes game indeed.
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Jul 27, 2015 02:41
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Keep in mind, though, the separation between YPG and PKK is not that big, they're close sister organisations
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Jul 27, 2015 02:42
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V. Illych L. posted:Keep in mind, though, the separation between YPG and PKK is not that big, they're close sister organisations i thought they didn't particularly like each other
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Jul 27, 2015 02:44
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Hey they bombed ISIS some. I wonder if this is in response to Saleh Muslim saying he was looking at crawling off to Assad.
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Jul 27, 2015 02:44
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V. Illych L. posted:Keep in mind, though, the separation between YPG and PKK is not that big, they're close sister organisations Also the YPG in Syria is allied with quite a few FSA groups in the Euphrates Volcano, and thusfar (as Volkerball has noted) Turkey has backed any and all anti-Assad groups including ISIL, the Al-Nusra Front (aka literally Al-Qaeda's Syrian branch), Ahrar al-Sham, and many other hardline Islamist groups. Turkey may hate the PKK and the YPG sure, but their attacks actually injured 4 FSA fighters, which is exactly what Turkey doesn't want to happen.
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Jul 27, 2015 02:50
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ImPureAwesome posted:i thought they didn't particularly like each other Basically the YPG = PYD = PKK. The difference is that the PKK isn't a dominant force in Iraq. The KDP controls Kurdistan there, and their military wing, the peshmerga, is the primary Kurdish fighting force against ISIS in Iraq. Meanwhile in Syria, the KDP has next to no influence, so the YPG are the dominant Kurdish military force fighting ISIS. With that in mind, bombing PKK positions in Iraq doesn't have a major effect on the fight against ISIS. On the other hand, bombing the YPG in Syria absolutely would if it becomes a thing. ISIS would likely be quick to try and capitalize on it. I think that's the major "why on earth would you bomb the YPG" aspect.
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Jul 27, 2015 02:51
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fade5 posted:Oh joy. Turkish forces are attacking the YPG.
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Jul 27, 2015 02:52
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ImPureAwesome posted:i thought they didn't particularly like each other that's the peshmerga and government in Iraqi kurdistan, which is a much more conventional bourgeois regime than Öcalan's merry band of revolutionary utopianists Volkerball posted:Hey they bombed ISIS some. I wonder if this is in response to Saleh Muslim saying he was looking at crawling off to Assad. or the opposite. or they're unrelated and this is just an attack on an affiliate organisation of the PKK. who knows. it's odd timing for a crackdown on kurdish militant groups, so there must be some rationale beyond "ha ha gently caress'em"
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Jul 27, 2015 02:53
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Ghost of Reagan Past posted:Turkey's also calling a NATO meeting so Tuesday will be...interesting. stoltenberg is sweating bullets right now haha poor fucker he signed up to do diplomacy with russia, not to try and convince the turks not to be obstinately murderous
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Jul 27, 2015 02:54
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Turkey bombing the YPG and arresting tons of people protesting against the Turkish government doesn't help the perception that Turkey is undertaking actions against Kurds in general.
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Jul 27, 2015 03:20
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First really damning piece I've seen about peshmerga ethnic cleansing in Iraq. It's not genocide ethnic cleansing, but it seems like it's pretty certain that they are looting and burning down Arab villages, then blaming it on ISIS, with the intent of driving non-Kurds out of the region. http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/07/23/peshmerga-war-crimes-ethnic-cleansing-islamic-state-iraq/ Man, Turkey and the Kurds really poo poo the bed this last week. Lot of repercussions are coming and none of them are good.
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Jul 27, 2015 03:23
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Where is ISIS getting all of its military equipment from? I'd imagine that they can't run off old Syrian/Iraqi stockpiles forever.
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Jul 27, 2015 03:39
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Porous borders are a weapon smuggler's best friend, and black market oil can buy a lot of weapons. There is also the likelihood that they don't even need to cross the border. Corruption is sort of a big thing in this conflict and whose to say if a Syrian/Iraqi military shipment doesn't go "missing" while someone's wallet gets thicker. Ikasuhito fucked around with this message at 04:05 on Jul 27, 2015 |
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Jul 27, 2015 03:53
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glad to see turkey loving up everything more and being nothing more than a rogue state that is somehow in nato
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Jul 27, 2015 03:56
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goose fleet posted:Where is ISIS getting all of its military equipment from? I'd imagine that they can't run off old Syrian/Iraqi stockpiles forever. Arab militaries have the peculiar characteristic of building up huge military stockpiles and then also not having the logistics ability to properly distribute it to their own troops. It is certainly possible that they've captured enough materiel to last them for literally years.
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Jul 27, 2015 04:00
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