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fiery_valkyrie
Mar 26, 2003

I'm proud of you, Bender. Sure, you lost. You lost bad. But the important thing is I beat up someone who hurt my feelings in high school.
My gut says Someone Awful is scum. I will try and elaborate tonight when I have time to post.

I agree with Foo on being suspicious of AC.

Sorry I dont have much time to participate at the moment.

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Captain Foo
May 11, 2004

we vibin'
we slidin'
we breathin'
we dyin'

fiery_valkyrie posted:

My gut says Someone Awful is scum. I will try and elaborate tonight when I have time to post.

I agree with Foo on being suspicious of AC.

Sorry I dont have much time to participate at the moment.

i will be interested to hear your case, i have genreally seen someone awful as town

Captain Foo
May 11, 2004

we vibin'
we slidin'
we breathin'
we dyin'

lowell needs to stop lurkin'

Acebuckeye13
Nov 2, 2010


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Ultra Carp
I think this is definitely the point where everyone (Including myself!) needs to start posting more just so we can get a sense of where everyone stands.

Colonel Corazon
Feb 12, 2011

A faction armed to the teeth hardly seems friendly to me.

##unvote Rarity

I'm not convinced but I definitely want to hear more and I don't want that double vote kicking poo poo off too fast. I forgot to take that into account earlier.

I still want imgay's thoughts most of all. I think if we give them enough noose, the scum will hang themselves this round.

Acebuckeye13
Nov 2, 2010


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Ultra Carp
I hadn't thought too much about AC myself, but I do agree with CF that there's potential for her to be Scum. You've lost me on SA though FV, definitely gonna need a more detailed explanation.

someone awful.
Sep 7, 2007


What exactly is the case on Rarity, I'm trying to read their post history through the lens of them being scum but it just isn't clicking for me and I'm not sure why. Like I don't think Rarity is particularly townie either, in complete honesty, so don't read this as a defense, I just seriously can't glean poo poo from Rarity's history and I'm getting frustrated with myself about it

Colonel Corazon
Feb 12, 2011

A faction armed to the teeth hardly seems friendly to me.

Where I'm at:

Town: Corazon
Probably Town: Foo, f_v
Neutral: Ace, Someone, lowell, apostate
Maybe Scum: Cham
Definitely Maybe Scum: imgay, Rarity

I'm down to vote for Rarity before imgay.

someone awful.
Sep 7, 2007


Like, is it all just because Rarity defended Opop and Opop flipped scum? I can see that, it just doesn't feel all that strong to me

Acebuckeye13
Nov 2, 2010


If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling
1-800-GAMBLER


Ultra Carp

Someone Awful! posted:

What exactly is the case on Rarity, I'm trying to read their post history through the lens of them being scum but it just isn't clicking for me and I'm not sure why. Like I don't think Rarity is particularly townie either, in complete honesty, so don't read this as a defense, I just seriously can't glean poo poo from Rarity's history and I'm getting frustrated with myself about it

Here's what my thoughts were-

-Everyone she's fingered so far has been Confirmed Town except for Chamale (Counting myself, obviously)

-Tried to get people to back off voting Opop on D1 (Who was confirmed Scum)

-Has defended imgay and in her trustworthiness chart placed him as "Confirmed Town", despite there being no evidence backing up imgay's claims of being a town-aligned cop.

-As soon as suspicion turned on her on D3 she claimed that she had a powerful role she didn't want to reveal, which sounds a hell of a lot like a bluff from my position.

As of now, I'm somewhat sure that imgay and Rarity are Scum, and are trying to cover for each other. imgay claiming to be a cop and saying he targeted Rarity makes sense in that context-he's trying to clear her of suspicions while trying to mislead town. Is it guaranteed? No, obviously. Does it clear other players of being scum? No. But that's the read I have on the situation, and so far I'm pretty sure of it.

Colonel Corazon
Feb 12, 2011

A faction armed to the teeth hardly seems friendly to me.

It's more that through it all Rarity has pointed at everyone else as scum, only ended up voting for Kash and avoided voting opop.

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.



town
lowell

probably town
corazon
foo
ace

neutral
someone
f_v

maybe scum
cham
apostate

scum
rarity
imgay

Here's my current ponderings.

Colonel Corazon
Feb 12, 2011

A faction armed to the teeth hardly seems friendly to me.

Why.

Captain Foo
May 11, 2004

we vibin'
we slidin'
we breathin'
we dyin'

LowellDND posted:

town
lowell

probably town
corazon
foo
ace

neutral
someone
f_v

maybe scum
cham
apostate

scum
rarity
imgay

Here's my current ponderings.


[explanations needed]

Chamale
Jul 11, 2010

I'm helping!



Colonel Corazon posted:

You mean day 2?

Scum tried to kill Lumpen on Day 1, he survived because the bus moved him. The Scum were going after Lumpen both days.

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

Chamale posted:

I have flavour-invoking and non-flavour-invoking arguments to show that Rarity is scum and I am not.

First, flavour. I've been hinting about my character ever since I got the role by quoting her in every post until I revealed who I am. It's a giveaway to anyone who's seen the movie (not Rarity, and a few other people here) and it would be insane for Scum to try fake-claiming her by dropping hints like that. There's evidence so far that everyone's character is aligned according to the movie:


That's 6 characters, all of whom have the same alignment they do in the movie. Therefore I say everyone's character matches their alignment, and there aren't enough Good people in the movie to give the Scum their own people to fake-claim. Rarity's counterargument:


As I showed, flavour is not independent to alignment, and my next paragraph will show that there aren't enough Town characters to give Scum fake claims. And I doubt that a mass flavour claim would even happen, since Rarity called Acebuckeye scum for saying he's Cheedo and is calling me scum for saying I'm Angharad.

We have 16 players, and here's a list of named characters in the movie who make sense as town-aligned: Max, Furiosa, Nux, the War Rig, Angharad, Toast, Capable, Cheedo, The Dag, The Valkyrie, The Keeper of the Seeds, and arguably Ace, Morsov, and Glory. That's at most 14, so the Scum can't have been given their own characters to fake-claim as. Meanwhile Rarity hasn't claimed or even hinted what character she has, only alluding to wanting to keep it a secret. I say Rarity is staying mum because she hasn't seen the movie and can't convincingly lie about a Town-aligned character.

##unvote

This whole part of your case is a disaster. I can't believe you're tunnelling in on a flavour argument, you have no idea how tempted I am to get a mass flavour claim going just to prove you wrong. The one upside to this is that it's so idiotic I can't see a scum trying to stick to their guns on this so congrats, I'm convinced you're town!

Chamale posted:

Next, my argument based on behaviour. I was fighting with Lumpen early on, so me killing him Day 1 would be too obvious, so the real scum killed him in an attempt to frame me. I may be a total amateur at Internet Mafia but I've played the card game enough times to know that. Meanwhile Rarity is trying to make multiple other people look bad by accusing them of trying to chain lynch, just for speculating about who is Mafia:

Yes, I'm trying to catch scum. What are we supposed to do here? Sit around and offer people hugs and cookies until scum NK us?

Chamale posted:

On that second post, Rarity was calling Acebuckeye scum because he wanted to lynch Opop, who turned out to be scum, instead of Hiipfire, who turned out to be the serial killer.


Also, here she's hedging on Opop while trying to convince us to lynch someone else, which led to Kashuno dying on the first day. We lynched Opop while Rarity was away on the second day (not her fault for being away, time zones). So Rarity has a track record of defending Opop while also distancing from him.

This is all completely fair. I read Opop wrong, mea culpa.

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

Colonel Corazon posted:

##vote Rarity

This gives imgay a chance to prove themselves and Cham, scum or not, is a double voter.

Flipping me just to test imgay's claim wouldn't be worth it.

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

Acebuckeye13 posted:

-Everyone she's fingered so far has been Confirmed Town except for Chamale (Counting myself, obviously)

You keep saying this but you realise you're only actually talking about Lumpen and Kash, right? And I was far from the only person to suspect them.

Acebuckeye13 posted:

-Has defended imgay and in her trustworthiness chart placed him as "Confirmed Town", despite there being no evidence backing up imgay's claims of being a town-aligned cop.

I'm not going to doubt an uncountered cop claim this early in the game.

Acebuckeye13 posted:

As of now, I'm somewhat sure that imgay and Rarity are Scum, and are trying to cover for each other. imgay claiming to be a cop and saying he targeted Rarity makes sense in that context-he's trying to clear her of suspicions while trying to mislead town. Is it guaranteed? No, obviously. Does it clear other players of being scum? No. But that's the read I have on the situation, and so far I'm pretty sure of it.

Basing alignment reads on unknown flips is bad mafia play. I know it's easy to get locked on to an opinion and extrapolate from there but I've been wrong cause of that so many times and all it does is harm town. We need to be able to judge everyone independently of each other to get the best reads. I think I'm reaching a similar point with you as I am with Chamale though. Your arguments seem like someone who's just inexperienced with mafia and who isn't familiar with standard plays or scum flags. I realise I've been quite harsh on both of you but I hope you guys keep playing mafia here cause one day we'll be in a game together and you'll be like 'dude, you were totally right, what were we thinking?'

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

Colonel Corazon posted:

It's more that through it all Rarity has pointed at everyone else as scum, only ended up voting for Kash and avoided voting opop.

You're forgetting most of D1 when I was tunnelled on Lumpen :v:

imgay
May 12, 2014

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
You think glory holes are popular in the post apocalypse?

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~
So let's look at Lowell. He's also a newbie like Chamale and Ace, they all started the game quietly but unlike them he's still lurking on D3. And when he does post, what he posts has little of value.

LowellDND posted:

Getting on this bandwagon

LowellDND posted:

Oh, we're formal about it then? ##vote lumpen

LowellDND posted:

Let's wrap the day up I guess.

##vote opop

LowellDND posted:

That seems compelling.

##vote Rarity

All of his votes are lovely bandwagon votes on whoever looks the most likely lynch target at the time. He's afraid of going against the tide of the thread, he doesn't want to be seen as standing out, which is a scummy mindset.

LowellDND posted:

Okay, sure. Lurker with a lot of one liners. Ill vote Opop if we're going that way.

On D1 Lowell commits to voting Opop. However, he doesn't attach a vote to his supposed commitment and the push on Opop fades. He doesn't want to be seen as defending Opop but he doesn't want Opop to be lynched either.

LowellDND posted:

town
lowell

probably town
corazon
foo
ace

neutral
someone
f_v

maybe scum
cham
apostate

scum
rarity
imgay

Here's my current ponderings.

This is the reason why relying on LumpenLists is a bad thing. This post is meaningless because we have no understanding of why people are in the positions Lowell has put them in. Lowell is using this list as a crutch to excuse himself from having to post meaningful content. Lists are only relevant when they are presented in the context of your reads (compare this post to mine and Lumpen's lists). All in all, Lowell reads like a player who is afraid of saying something wrong, afraid of doing something to get attention on him and afraid of being outed for what he is, scum.

##vote Lowell

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.



Rarity posted:

So let's look at Lowell. He's also a newbie like Chamale and Ace, they all started the game quietly but unlike them he's still lurking on D3. And when he does post, what he posts has little of value.

This is the reason why relying on LumpenLists is a bad thing. This post is meaningless because we have no understanding of why people are in the positions Lowell has put them in. Lowell is using this list as a crutch to excuse himself from having to post meaningful content. Lists are only relevant when they are presented in the context of your reads (compare this post to mine and Lumpen's lists). All in all, Lowell reads like a player who is afraid of saying something wrong, afraid of doing something to get attention on him and afraid of being outed for what he is, scum.

##vote Lowell

I like how you voted for me after I voted for you :v: That's not sketchy at all.

Mostly this is my first game and I'm still trying to learn the ropes. As for the expansion on my list:

town
lowell

probably town
corazon - seems to have some good ideas and similar reads

foo - posts often, seems to be doing good analysis

ace - similar read as me when it comes to rarity, which is encouraging

neutral
someone - can’t get a solid read on them yet
f_v - can’t get a solid read on them yet

maybe scum
cham - flavor fishing, but that isn’t necessarily proof
apostate - something about them doesnt feel right, but Im waiting it out.

scum
imgay - seems oddly deffensive

rarity - My reasons for voting Rarity: Started with a bunch of one liners, and then went hard for Lumpen (who was revealed to be town). Following that, they tended to be low content, skeptical of everyone, but not posting any effort posts. Instead, they simply went around asking people to give their own reads. Their second target was a town (who they didn’t give a read for, and showed little interest in it prior to their vote).

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

LowellDND posted:

I like how you voted for me after I voted for you :v: That's not sketchy at all.

It's your first game, you don't even know what counts as sketchy yet :v:

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.



Rarity posted:

It's your first game, you don't even know what counts as sketchy yet :v:

So do you want me to lurk with low confidence, or aggressively make claims with no clue? :v:

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.



Like, I can spam posts with the best of them, but Id rather try to be thoughtful about it :v:

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~
I'd like to see you have an original opinion, can you do that one?

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.



Since you did ask.

Dead players

Ernie -Town
Hiipfire - Serial killer
Kashuno - Town
Lumpen - Town
Opopanex Scum
TMMadman - Town

With that in mind, we need to look at who Opop voted for, and who voted with them.

Opop voted Kashuno before dying.

People who voted to kill Kash include: Opop, apostate, Lowell, someone, imagay, chamale, rarity, fv, ace, and corazon

scum know scum, of course, so we can (tenatively) assume they won’t vote for scum. this means we can subtract the day 2 lynch (fv, lumpen, apostate, ace, corazon, foo, and myself).

This leaves us with ‘someone, imgay, chamale, and rarity’

Looking at current votes, we have 2 for chamale (somone and foo), and 2 for rarity (ace and myself). if we assume scum won’t vote for scum, that that puts higher likelihood of chamale not being scum, while someone is. this logic also plays with the prior hunches of imgay and rarity.

someone awful.
Sep 7, 2007


LowellDND posted:


scum know scum, of course, so we can (tenatively) assume they won’t vote for scum. this means we can subtract the day 2 lynch (fv, lumpen, apostate, ace, corazon, foo, and myself).

This is a faulty argument, why would you assume this? Since Scum need to look like not-Scum they absolutely might vote for one another or be on another scum teammate's lynch. Sure it's a factor to consider but blithely assuming "they voted Scum so they must not be Scum" is naive at best and at worst, a deflection from ~*your scumbros*~ on the lynch :v:

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.



Someone Awful! posted:

This is a faulty argument, why would you assume this? Since Scum need to look like not-Scum they absolutely might vote for one another or be on another scum teammate's lynch. Sure it's a factor to consider but blithely assuming "they voted Scum so they must not be Scum" is naive at best and at worst, a deflection from ~*your scumbros*~ on the lynch :v:

Well, obviously. But drawing conclusions from such a small data pool is problematic at best. Slapping on some faulty heuristics might at least point us in the right direction.

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.



Otherwise we go into things like 'no one can no anything conclusively' and base everything on the gut feelings. And we've lost 4 town doing it that way.

Loel
Jun 4, 2012

"For the Emperor."

There was a terrible noise.
There was a terrible silence.



just based on initial patterns, Im seeing groupings of

corazon/foo/ace/me
and
someone/imgay/rarity.

with fv, cham, and apostate in the middle.

fiery_valkyrie
Mar 26, 2003

I'm proud of you, Bender. Sure, you lost. You lost bad. But the important thing is I beat up someone who hurt my feelings in high school.

Captain Foo posted:

i will be interested to hear your case, i have genreally seen someone awful as town

Like I said, it's gut and I don't think I could draw up a good case on it. What stands out to me is that he was in the thread when Hiip got vigged (he posted at exactly the same time as the flip was posted) and then just completely disappears while we lynch Opop. He has nothing to say and no vote to contribute.

I think he's also been a little inconsistent with his opinions on people, Ernie, kash and Lumpen stand out on a re-read.

Colonel Corazon
Feb 12, 2011

A faction armed to the teeth hardly seems friendly to me.

Rarity posted:

You're forgetting most of D1 when I was tunnelled on Lumpen :v:

I'm going to have fun quoting all the times you suspected everyone else.

imgay posted:

You think glory holes are popular in the post apocalypse?

Any opinions, scum? Or you gonna keep joking around to avoid discussion?

Captain Foo
May 11, 2004

we vibin'
we slidin'
we breathin'
we dyin'

Rarity posted:

Flipping me just to test imgay's claim wouldn't be worth it.

town shouldn't fear death

Captain Foo
May 11, 2004

we vibin'
we slidin'
we breathin'
we dyin'

LowellDND posted:

Well, obviously. But drawing conclusions from such a small data pool is problematic at best. Slapping on some faulty heuristics might at least point us in the right direction.

faulty heuristics will point you in the wrong direction by definition

Captain Foo
May 11, 2004

we vibin'
we slidin'
we breathin'
we dyin'

LowellDND posted:

Let's wrap the day up I guess.

##vote opop

also this can be seen an easy bus, hammer a scum who's almost certainly dead anyway; the immediately preceding post is lumpen in his lumpen way "okaying" an early hammer

Captain Foo
May 11, 2004

we vibin'
we slidin'
we breathin'
we dyin'

having imgay as "defensive" seems like a weird reason to have him in the maxscum slot on your list unless there's something else you want to clarify

Captain Foo
May 11, 2004

we vibin'
we slidin'
we breathin'
we dyin'

anyway my move right now is ##vote aC

i will not vote imgay while rarity is still alive

Acebuckeye13
Nov 2, 2010


If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling
1-800-GAMBLER


Ultra Carp

Captain Foo posted:

anyway my move right now is ##vote aC

i will not vote imgay while rarity is still alive

Why? Remember, imgay didn't actually clear Rarity-he targeted her, but CC bussed the two so he targeted himself (If he is a cop).

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Colonel Corazon
Feb 12, 2011

A faction armed to the teeth hardly seems friendly to me.

It would be cool if imgay had opinions.

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