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Invicta{HOG}, M.D. posted:I'm having a hard time figuring out if this is a new thing or old news. On the one hand, we know that Russia has asked before to know where the FSA is to avoid from bombing them but this sounds more like "try to help them." Some of the political aspects of this seem to be new but maybe it is just different translations? I mean, I am obviously skeptical of Russia but if there really is going to be some pressure on Assad to allow elections and come to the table then that could at least be a reason for optimism. I'm sure I'm just grasping at straws... Assad would overwhelmingly win an early election, in the same way he and his father have won every election since 1971. It is meant to improve Assad's bargaining position, not designate a post-transition government. No Russian pressure is necessary.
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Oct 24, 2015 17:49
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Invicta{HOG}, M.D. posted:I'm having a hard time figuring out if this is a new thing or old news. On the one hand, we know that Russia has asked before to know where the FSA is to avoid from bombing them but this sounds more like "try to help them." Some of the political aspects of this seem to be new but maybe it is just different translations? I mean, I am obviously skeptical of Russia but if there really is going to be some pressure on Assad to allow elections and come to the table then that could at least be a reason for optimism. I'm sure I'm just grasping at straws... I posted this days ago. Their foreign minister said this almost at the immediate beginning of the bombing campaign. It's bullshit.
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Oct 24, 2015 19:09
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Lots of ongoing IDF activity over Quneitra this evening, as Step News reports that they've been engaging IS-linked Liwa Shahada Yarmouk. https://youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=OIH2dGry4xg The fact that there's been no reports of shells from Syria to Israel, and that no SAA sites have been hit, has led to some rumors about Israel having lost a service member.
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Oct 24, 2015 19:27
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Any chance for an end to the civil war in Syria should be rejected unless it's 100% on coalition terms imo. It's obviously more important that we win than allowing a compromise where normal Syrian people get to live their lives in the next few decades. Lockheed Martin, Boeing Rally Around Saudi Arabia, Wave Off Humanitarian Concerns quote:Ronald L. Perrilloux Jr., an executive with Lockheed Martin, complained of an atmosphere of “hostile media reports” shaping the views of Congress, most of which, he said, are “patently false.” 
Mackers fucked around with this message at 20:08 on Oct 24, 2015 |
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Oct 24, 2015 19:28
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Mackers posted:a compromise where normal Syrian people get to live their lives in the few decades. Yes because Russia's offer to negotiate with the FSA in the middle of a heavy and sustained bombing campaign against them should be taken seriously even though Russia has continued to label them all as ISIS in its official press releases. Yes I'm sure the rebels will jump at the chance.
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Oct 24, 2015 19:37
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Sergg posted:Yes because Russia's offer to negotiate with the FSA in the middle of a heavy and sustained bombing campaign against them should be taken seriously even though Russia has continued to label them all as ISIS in its official press releases. Yes I'm sure the rebels will jump at the chance. Russia will probably negotiate with the Kurdish-led SDF, it seems like the formation of the SDF was a face-saving measure because the FSA is proving to be more and more extremely Islamist and Sunni-chauvinist.
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Oct 24, 2015 19:42
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I think the big question at this point is what's going to happen with Turkey because if my US-saves-face-with-SDF hypothesis proves to be correct they're going to be extremely not happy in any 5-country sponsored talks
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Oct 24, 2015 19:46
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https://twitter.com/DrPartizan_/status/657982753619771392 Good god
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Oct 24, 2015 19:54
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ISIS are honest to god cartoon villains.
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Oct 24, 2015 20:02
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Dapper_Swindler posted:ISIS are honest to god cartoon villains. Doesn't that actually sort of work though?
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Oct 24, 2015 20:05
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Would you actually light those fires upwind of fighting positions, though? Seems like it would make the city harder to defend, you can only spend so much time in a cloud of oily smoke. And if the smoke isn't covering fighting positions what's the point? they've tried it before though: http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2014/10/12/ISIS-uses-smokescreens-to-mislead-Iraqi-warplanes-.html
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Oct 24, 2015 20:10
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https://twitter.com/RamiAlLolah/status/657984392040697856quote:HUGE! #BreakingNews LCC confirms my early news. #Israel|i civilian missing inside #ISIS-linked Liwa Shuhada Yarmouk territories in #Syria  (Unconfirmed)
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Oct 24, 2015 20:30
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Dapper_Swindler posted:ISIS are honest to god cartoon villains. They executed a Syrian army soldier by running him over with a tank today, so yeah.
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Oct 24, 2015 20:32
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Lots of rumors swirling, top one (unconfirmed!) seems to be that a civilian glider strayed into Syria and crashed. Unconfirmed reports that the Israelis have also struck Tel Ahmar, which was retaken from the SRF by Hezbollah and the SAA last week. Liwa Shahada Yarmouk has also reportedly denied taking anyone hostage, so who knows yet what's actually going on.
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Oct 24, 2015 20:40
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Brown Moses posted:They executed a Syrian army soldier by running him over with a tank today, so yeah. That was pretty horrible yeah. No update on the Hama offensive which means the regime was unable to do anything during the say to slow it. Should see if the rebels plan on launching another evening offensive soon. I wanted to highlight something else quickly though. In both the assault on the towns last evening and today I've seen tanks being used in the salient to attack regime positions. This is an obvious and blatant failure of Russian airpower.
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Oct 24, 2015 20:48
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Mackers posted:Any chance for an end to the civil war in Syria should be rejected unless it's 100% on coalition terms imo. It's obviously more important that we win than allowing a compromise where normal Syrian people get to live their lives in the next few decades. The coalition isn't a side in the civil war fyi. The US doesn't have a role in the opposition that would allow it to influence whether the war ends or continues. The reality is any Russian deal for elections would just be to create the illusion of legitimacy for Assad, and it would never be agreed to by Russia unless they believed it would keep the regime in power. As long as the regime is in power, the war will continue. It's laughable that you're putting the onus on a few countries bombing ISIS on the side to give up the concessions that will end the civil war. This isn't that kind of proxy war.
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Oct 24, 2015 20:56
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ComradeCosmobot posted:So what's the deal with the new he-said-she-said story coming out of Turkey blaming Erdogan for the Syrian sarin strikes? I dug into this, Cumhuriyet published some of the transcripts: http://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/haber/turkiye/392257/islami_terore_koruma..._iste_o_tapeler.html http://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/haber/turkiye/393243/Savcidan__sarin__tarifi_.html Few interesting things, first of all the claimed formula is as follows: quote:Methanol (CH3OH) + White Phosphorus (P4) = DMMP (dimethylmethylphosphonat A) Apart from missing details of each step of the process apparently the DMMP formula wouldn't work, and the Sarin used on August 21st had hexamine used to remove the HF, not isopropanolamine as shown above. In one call they're talking about producing 50kg of material, although it's not clear exactly what they are talking about. The Sarin used on August 21st would have required 8-9 tonnes of material, producing roughly 800-1000kg of Sarin required to fill the munitions used. 50kg would have probably filled one of the Volcano rockets used. It's also claimed the munitions used were made in Turkey, yet we know two munitions were used on August 21st, the Volcano rocket, which has been shown to be used in previous alleged attacks by the Syrian military, and the Soviet M14 140mm artillery rocket, which Human Rights Watch found records for. Now this isn't to say they weren't trying to make Sarin, but it doesn't seem like it had anything to do with August 21st based on what has been published so far.
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Oct 24, 2015 21:37
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Volkerball posted:The coalition isn't a side in the civil war fyi. The US doesn't have a role in the opposition that would allow it to influence whether the war ends or continues. The reality is any Russian deal for elections would just be to create the illusion of legitimacy for Assad, and it would never be agreed to by Russia unless they believed it would keep the regime in power. As long as the regime is in power, the war will continue. It's laughable that you're putting the onus on a few countries bombing ISIS on the side to give up the concessions that will end the civil war. This isn't that kind of proxy war. Yes, obviously Russia wants Assad or maybe another puppet to remain in power. The Saudis want theirs instead. Neither side gives a poo poo how repressive the government is to Syrians as long as it's in their pocket. How people can see Saudi government activities in the their own country and the rest of the Middle East (Yemen in Particular right now) but still believe that their activities in Syria are to help the poor downtrodden Syrian people is beyond me. The US loses any credibility they might have left by working alongside them. Russia never had any to start with.
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Oct 24, 2015 22:11
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coma posted:Russia will probably negotiate with the Kurdish-led SDF, it seems like the formation of the SDF was a face-saving measure because the FSA is proving to be more and more extremely Islamist and Sunni-chauvinist. Like when they kidnapped two italian humanitarian workers and gave them to Al Qaeda? That's the secularism and democracy that people like Volkerball wish for Syria!
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Oct 25, 2015 00:44
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Apparently big Israeli air operation on the Syrian border. https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/657997785241882629 Rumor of a downed pilot even  e:there's a gag order in northern Israel right now. Something happened/is happening ass struggle fucked around with this message at 01:02 on Oct 25, 2015 |
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Oct 25, 2015 00:59
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Cippalippus posted:Like when they kidnapped two italian humanitarian workers and gave them to Al Qaeda? That's the secularism and democracy that people like Volkerball wish for Syria! They'll have to do a lot worse to beat out Assad, Nusrah and ISIS. Sticking to bombing ISIS/Nusrah and supporting the least lovely opposition was a good move on Obamas part.
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Oct 25, 2015 01:02
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Anosmoman posted:
If you mean the Kurds and their local FSA allies, yes. It was also the only practical and logical thing he could do in Syria.
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Oct 25, 2015 01:12
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sparatuvs posted:Apparently big Israeli air operation on the Syrian border. Most detailed claim yet, still unconfirmed. https://en.zamanalwsl.net/mobile/readNews.php?id=12108
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Oct 25, 2015 01:28
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sparatuvs posted:Apparently big Israeli air operation on the Syrian border. Just when you were thinking "I don't see how Syria could get any more hosed up", Israel gets involved!
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Oct 25, 2015 01:29
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With Israel getting involved, I think that is the last of Syria's neighbours who haven't intervened militarily in Syria involved. Now all we're missing is the Chinese to take part in the Syrian clusterfuck!
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Oct 25, 2015 01:52
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MothraAttack posted:Most detailed claim yet, still unconfirmed. That's an older picture from a US crash: http://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/wiki.php?id=20718
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Oct 25, 2015 01:57
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Flavahbeast posted:That's an older picture from a US crash: http://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/wiki.php?id=20718 Well gently caress me, that's what I get for not reverse image searching. And that doesn't look like Quneitra anyway, the hell. Edit: but in much more cheery news, the Kurdish-led op to liberate Sinjar and sever Raqqa from Mosul began overnight. 
MothraAttack fucked around with this message at 02:29 on Oct 25, 2015 |
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Oct 25, 2015 02:22
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nothing to seehere posted:With Israel getting involved, I think that is the last of Syria's neighbours who haven't intervened militarily in Syria involved. Now all we're missing is the Chinese to take part in the Syrian clusterfuck! If you gave the Alawaites a choice of being part of Israel, part of Kurdistan, or in the Islamic State, what would they choose?
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Oct 25, 2015 04:05
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Can't substantiate. But we'll apparently know by 9 AM Tel Aviv time.
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Oct 25, 2015 04:41
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nothing to seehere posted:With Israel getting involved, I think that is the last of Syria's neighbours who haven't intervened militarily in Syria involved. Now all we're missing is the Chinese to take part in the Syrian clusterfuck! Lebanon has kept it's hands off, probably because a fourth of their population is now Syrian refugees and they don't want any more.
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Oct 25, 2015 04:55
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How is Lebanon coping with that enormous proportion of refugees?
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Oct 25, 2015 04:56
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Young Freud posted:If you gave the Alawaites a choice of being part of Israel, part of Kurdistan, or in the Islamic State, what would they choose? I'd say Kurdistan, but then again most sane people on the planet would likely agree with that. Provided it's a US-backed Kurdistan, of course
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Oct 25, 2015 05:01
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goose fleet posted:How is Lebanon coping with that enormous proportion of refugees? Well they've had a similar number of Palestinian refugees living in camps for a couple decades, so I'm sure there was and continues to be a strain on Lebanon, but it's not quite the shock to their society it would at first appear. Also it should be remembered that Israel has already bombed Syria a couple of times when they felt Hezbollah might be getting weapon shipments from the Assad regime. So unless they put boots on the ground, Israeli military intervention isn't unprecedented in the conflict.
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Oct 25, 2015 05:02
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So is that "1/4 their population is now Syrian refugees" counting or not counting Palestinian refugees? Because holy poo poo, if over half of the people living in your country are not actually members of your country, that's kind of turbo-hosed up.
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Oct 25, 2015 05:12
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So I misremembered the numbers. There had been about 450,000 Palestinians, which had been about 10% of the population. The addition of 1.1 million to 1.3 million Syrian refugees bumps the total number of refugees up to 25% of the population, with about 4.5 million Lebanese citizens and 1.5 million or more refugees.
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Oct 25, 2015 05:39
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Mackers posted:Yes, obviously Russia wants Assad or maybe another puppet to remain in power. The Saudis want theirs instead. Neither side gives a poo poo how repressive the government is to Syrians as long as it's in their pocket. On what planet are the people in this thread defending the actions of the Saudi government?
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Oct 25, 2015 07:01
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Thump! posted:I'd say Kurdistan, but then again most sane people on the planet would likely agree with that. protip: "being Kurdistan" is code for "being ethnically cleansed by Turkey, Iran and the Arabs" the whole US-backed Kurdistan idea is one of the funniest things to come out of this whole mess. surely you're cynical enough by now to see it's not going to, and never was going to happen?
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Oct 25, 2015 07:08
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http://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Arab-Israeli-para-glided-into-Syria-to-join-rebel-group-429990 It was an Isreali paraglider
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Oct 25, 2015 08:10
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Israeli-Arab    The comment section is just lovely. Seems like something of an overreaction to send in all those helicopters and jets for one dude, unless he was James al-Bond escaping with all the state secrets of Israel.
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Oct 25, 2015 08:54
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Lustful Man Hugs posted:On what planet are the people in this thread defending the actions of the Saudi government? Every time someone claims that the FSA and the Syrian opposition is the Democratic and secular alternative to Assad? Or defending the choice to ignite the worst civil war in the century by arming rebels, because Assad is bad, while at the same time being allied to the Ksa?
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Oct 25, 2015 10:53
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