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I sold all my sune 2 days ago at a 10% gain. Trying to convince myself not to play sune roulette again.
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Jan 7, 2016 19:03
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My Q-Face posted:Hello, SUNE, nice 30% drop today, has the trap sprung, or are you waiting for me to put my dick back in it?
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Jan 7, 2016 19:03
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bushes posted:Didn't they get a reduction in their debt today? What gives? Something about a second lien, pricing a new facility, bad interest rates and 2018 or something, I don't know. quote:The Second Lien Facilities will be comprised of $500 million of A1 loans, and $225 million of A2 loans, each of which will bear interest at a rate of LIBOR + 10.0% per annum and will mature on July 2, 2018.
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Jan 7, 2016 19:06
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LIBOR plus 10, debt markets must have a lot of faith in the company
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Jan 7, 2016 19:14
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SUNE
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Jan 7, 2016 19:23
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Well, I think we can all see that trucking, busing, taxi companies, perhaps even the traditional car companies are at risk of being replaced nearly wholesale by autonomous vehicles if they don't adapt quickly. A lot of highway construction hopefully. There are obviously tons of jobs in those industries that are going to go away. We might not be able to see right now how other automation/AI developments will be able to uproot other industries, but its kind of silly to think they won't. Doctor-bots might not happen for a long rear end time, but all the other people in the office can be replaced a lot easier. I've got a degree in AI (an old one), and I've been a skeptic about it for a long while, because poo poo still fundamentally looks like the same crap I did 20 years ago. Expert systems - "IF (A AND B) OR C THEN BLAH BLAH BLAH", or training a neural net to develop those rules itself. But there definitely is a tipping point here where the computational power is enough to do useful poo poo, and the building blocks/toolkits are complex enough that its easier/faster to develop something useful. Things are going to be changing quickly. Can you see a future where every job that can be done with like an IQ of 80 can be replaced? Sure, probably already here, its just too expensive. That's not a very high bar, but its gonna be increasing pretty rapidly, and the costs are going down.
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Jan 7, 2016 19:38
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Still not at the August 2015 bottom. Ye gads this is just blargh to watch.
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Jan 7, 2016 19:47
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Agronox posted:LIBOR plus 10, debt markets must have a lot of faith in the company At what point do they just put the whole thing on a Visa card?
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Jan 7, 2016 19:51
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Agronox posted:LIBOR plus 10, debt markets must have a lot of faith in the company They wouldn't make the loan for even 10% if they actually thought the company was going under, SUNE is getting hosed by the markets right now and everyone is at the trough getting what they can out of it. They aren't going bankrupt.
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Jan 7, 2016 19:53
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Baddog posted:Well, I think we can all see that trucking, busing, taxi companies, perhaps even the traditional car companies are at risk of being replaced nearly wholesale by autonomous vehicles if they don't adapt quickly. A lot of highway construction hopefully. There are obviously tons of jobs in those industries that are going to go away. We might not be able to see right now how other automation/AI developments will be able to uproot other industries, but its kind of silly to think they won't. Doctor-bots might not happen for a long rear end time, but all the other people in the office can be replaced a lot easier. Yes, I mostly agree. Automation tends to eliminate the poo poo, worst-paid jobs first. Which are of course the people least-equipped to deal with their jobs being eliminated. Doctors are at or near the top of the payscale in medical care, so I think they're actually the least vulnerable to automation. If they were really so unnecessary and replaceable, we wouldn't be paying them so much. Outside of medicine, which really is a very human-driven industry, hell yes. Autonomous vehicles though? It's going to be a long time before we wholesale adopt driverless vehicles, as in, there's nobody there to stomp on the brakes. We don't even have much in the way of driverless trains, for similar reasons. Self-driving vehicles aren't very likely to lay off drivers in the near future: but they may cut the pay, and (hopefully) will greatly reduce the rate of road accidents and fatalities. Our nation's highway infrastructure is crumbling and has 40+ years of deferred maintenance. More overpasses and bridges are going to start outright collapsing in the coming years, and I foresee a boom in roadwork jobs. But yeah, automation is going to change the employment landscape. It's been doing so for 300 years and that trend isn't going to suddenly stop. The long-term trend continues to be the elimination of the worst most tedious poo poo-paying jobs, while more technical, better-paying jobs are being created in new industries that we're only just now realizing could exist.
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Jan 7, 2016 19:57
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Leperflesh posted:Autonomous vehicles though? It's going to be a long time before we wholesale adopt driverless vehicles, as in, there's nobody there to stomp on the brakes. We say this and it's a psychological thing with people not wanting to give up complete control, but we have systems in vehicles on the road right now that will stomp the brakes when drivers aren't paying enough attention.
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Jan 7, 2016 20:04
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Sure. And yet, provably, having operators at the front of autonomous trains occasionally saves some lives, because automated systems occasionally fail. The key thing is to turn the humans into the backups for the automated systems, rather than the current arrangement where it's the other way around. This is also how large commercial aircraft work. Planes are way beyond cars in terms of highly-sophisticated automated systems, and yet, we still pay pilots a lot of money, for good reason.
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Jan 7, 2016 20:07
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quote:I've got a degree in AI (an old one), and I've been a skeptic about it for a long while, because poo poo still fundamentally looks like the same crap I did 20 years ago. Expert systems - "IF (A AND B) OR C THEN BLAH BLAH BLAH", or training a neural net to develop those rules itself. But there definitely is a tipping point here where the computational power is enough to do useful poo poo, and the building blocks/toolkits are complex enough that its easier/faster to develop something useful. Things are going to be changing quickly. Can you see a future where every job that can be done with like an IQ of 80 can be replaced? Sure, probably already here, its just too expensive. That's not a very high bar, but its gonna be increasing pretty rapidly, and the costs are going down. My job is all about automating other people's jobs (in an office setting) - right now we're doing stuff with identifying and processing documents. We're taking kind of a "force multiplier" approach, where we process all the easy decisions out of 1000's of pages, and digest the remainder down to just the decisions we need a human to make - "what has someone written here?", "these two pages look very similar, are they the same document?", "our categorization rules failed, what type of letter is this?". It won't get rid of all the relevant jobs, but it'll probably half them by the end. Our next project after this should probably do about 75%. To me it feels like the role I'm doing is different than it was even 15 years ago. It used to be I was making people have an easier time producing better work, but there was too many things the computer couldn't do to actually get rid of many humans (often this part was "talking to people"). What's changed in my "office" type scenarios is 25% "computer capability" and 75% "critical mass of technology adoption". All of our clients have become more automated, and the people they service have become very open to "I'll use your app to put in my requests", so the "communication" parts have all become trivial (and that was the last thing keeping humans in lots of these processes). Anywho, I think there's a lot of low-hanging fruit in automation that's going to get plucked in the next 15 years. The world could function with lots fewer office workers. The world needs some optometrists for odd cases, but drastically fewer than it has. Someone still needs to work at Walmart, but many fewer than do today; it doesn't take strong AI to stock shelves or clean an empty building or lots of things that currently employ a good percentage of the work force. The occupations I expect to grow - nursing, and a few others - won't be able to absorb all these people. I do think the next 20 years will force a shift in Western economies as full employment becomes less and less viable. I think most countries will shift fine - I mean, "not needing to work" is actually a great thing that could be a real new age for people.... but I'm not sure about the US. There's a religious attachment to a certain kind of capitalism there, and I think it might get to violence before it'll make the kinds of changes needed.
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Jan 7, 2016 20:14
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Leperflesh posted:Sure. And yet, provably, having operators at the front of autonomous trains occasionally saves some lives, because automated systems occasionally fail. First they came for the flight engineers, then the navigators, now some regional pilots start around $20k/yr. Check out the aviation thread in A/T if you want to know more but the aviation labor market is hilariously hosed up.
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Jan 7, 2016 20:22
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And you will never actually get an engineer out of a train. However, they are designed so that anyone, with about three minutes training can, at least, move one across a yard. It's the service and maintenance that people are employed in.
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Jan 7, 2016 20:25
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Is SUNE stressing SCTY or is the whole Nevada power thing that big of a deal to the stock.
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Jan 7, 2016 20:51
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jmzero posted:I do think the next 20 years will force a shift in Western economies as full employment becomes less and less viable. I think most countries will shift fine - I mean, "not needing to work" is actually a great thing that could be a real new age for people.... but I'm not sure about the US. There's a religious attachment to a certain kind of capitalism there, and I think it might get to violence before it'll make the kinds of changes needed. Right, peoples identities are so tied up in their work, and the culture here is so against handouts. But the utopian vision of "in the future, everyone will only have to work 10 hours a week" ain't happening. The engineers are working overtime, and the people who can't learn new work are going to get nothing.
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Jan 7, 2016 20:52
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The market knows all, and it knows that no one should be paid a decent wage. The economy!
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Jan 7, 2016 20:52
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Baddog posted:Right, peoples identities are so tied up in their work, and the culture here is so against handouts. But the utopian vision of "in the future, everyone will only have to work 10 hours a week" ain't happening. The engineers are working overtime, and the people who can't learn new work are going to get nothing. No, no that's not true. They are going to get arrested, sentenced to 60 years in prison and cost the engineers 60,000 a year to house and feed them. All over a single, solitary joint.
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Jan 7, 2016 20:54
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Who wants to give it a shot?
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Jan 7, 2016 20:54
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Josh Lyman posted:Who wants to give it a shot? Up 15% on it since Monday.
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Jan 7, 2016 20:58
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Top Bunk Wanker posted:Up 15% on it since Monday. 
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Jan 7, 2016 21:01
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Top Bunk Wanker posted:I'm betting on YANG right now.
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Jan 7, 2016 21:09
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I thought you were talking about some weird FANG with Yahoo instead of Facebook
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Jan 7, 2016 21:11
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Nobody could possibly scroll past that and think you were talking about a stock.
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Jan 7, 2016 21:12
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Josh Lyman posted:Nobody could possibly scroll past that and think you were talking about a stock. In the Stock trading megathread No less!
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Jan 7, 2016 21:13
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And trading of SUNE just got halted. 135 million shares traded today  edit: aaaaaaand resumed
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Jan 7, 2016 21:17
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It got below $3 in late november, so it's not close to its recent floor yet. e. Ohhhh, this says they're not just taking out loans, they're massively diluting the common stock.
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Jan 7, 2016 21:21
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I think removing the circuit breaking rules means that the government is going to be buying heavily. At least tomorrow.
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Jan 7, 2016 21:24
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Sold my CSIQ yesterday before the 16% drop today, goddamn thank god I kinda wish I could buy some SUNE but I should limit my exposure to solar
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Jan 7, 2016 21:25
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God dammit, I forgot to open a position on YANG. Even though I might be able to get in an after-hours order, I don't have any free cash so I'd have to pare back one one of my existing positions, and trying to execute both legs of that trade after hours is eating a lot of spread.
Josh Lyman fucked around with this message at 22:23 on Jan 7, 2016 |
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Jan 7, 2016 22:18
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Josh Lyman posted:I forgot 
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Jan 7, 2016 23:54
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Josh Lyman posted:God dammit, I forgot to open a position on YANG. Even though I might be able to get in an after-hours order, I don't have any free cash so I'd have to pare back one one of my existing positions, and trying to execute both legs of that trade after hours is eating a lot of spread. I have a feeling you'll be happy about that. Very happy. Unless you meant a short position. Some think the markets might have been intentionally manipulated to assist with devaluing the yuan more. The Chinese have a reverse repo style QE set to take effect.
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Jan 8, 2016 00:19
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ayekappy posted:I have a feeling you'll be happy about that. Very happy. Unless you meant a short position. Going short on an ETF dedicated to leveraging shorts... shortception.
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Jan 8, 2016 00:43
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Well I was initially right, but now it looks like the $SSEC is catching pretty much almost literally 0 bids. drat son.
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Jan 8, 2016 02:49
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Aaaand I'm right again. Probably will be wrong again in another 10 mins lol. Talk about a drat rollercoaster! I wish our markets moved this fast sometimes.
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Jan 8, 2016 02:52
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Business posted:I kinda wish I could buy some SUNE but I should limit my exposure to solar Do their fundamentals support that at this point? I thought the bondholders basically owned the company at this point.
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Jan 8, 2016 06:42
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KernelSlanders posted:Do their fundamentals support that at this point? I thought the bondholders basically owned the company at this point. quote:The company provided an update on its financial conditions on Dec. 24, including plans to install as much as 3.5 gigawatts next year, giving some analysts reason to expect the shares to rebound. The reason it went down so much btw was equity dilution directly by SUNE.
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Jan 8, 2016 07:03
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And hey SUNE got a couple upgrades today and those guys are never wrong. Sure the price ranges are anywhere from $2-$19 but that is beside the point.
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Jan 8, 2016 17:17
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SUNE is not something to worry about day to day right now, you either have conviction on it or you don't. Good luck timing the wild swings. WTW getting cheap again.
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Jan 8, 2016 17:36
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