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Like, it's just one of many things I typed.
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Feb 22, 2016 16:09
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Max posted:Why are you all harping on that one point? The vast majority of your post was "Wifom" and "it's so weird that Q posted after he woke up isn't that suspicious?"
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Feb 22, 2016 16:11
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Mmm, I suppose. I'm going to be stubborn and keep my vote where it is.
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Feb 22, 2016 16:15
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Quandary, what is, in your mind, the difference between imgay and MG2?
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Feb 22, 2016 16:23
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I say this because I see no discernible difference between the content that MG2 provided and the content imgay has provided, yet you posted that you thought imgay had actually contributed to the game earlier:Quandary posted:I know you weren't joking, that's the bad part. Genuinely pursuing an imgay policy lynch when imgay is one of the more prolific posters at this point (somehow) is scummy, and an actively bad lynch. This wasn't really true, as all imgay had done was post about how bad shitposters were. He has contributed a whole lot of nothing this game. How you find that OK but feel MG2 was an OK lunch doesn't make sense to me.
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Feb 22, 2016 16:36
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OK, "prolific" not contributing.
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Feb 22, 2016 16:37
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Quandary posted:Re-reading MG2 I think it's a pretty good vote and I'd be ok with. It feels like MG is here but failing to contribute, intentionally avoiding giving any real opinions. I'm not going to vote him because that would be hammer and I don't know its necessary to hammer this early. I still think Jose is a better lynch, but I'm not sure what I can do to convince people of that. Here's your post about MG2. Again, what is the difference between imgay and MG?
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Feb 22, 2016 16:41
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imgay.
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Feb 22, 2016 19:40
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Max posted:Finally, I don't think we'll learn anything from no-lunching. In fact, I think we stand to lose even more since it's possible a power role will be targeted / I am still concerned this is a gambit to bait the cop investigation because we may be in a godfather/cop setup. I addressed this already; what's the gambit if our hypothetical cop investigates someone else? Say they hit a scum - then we can use that player's posts to help untangle this. With a godfather in play, I understand not trusting investigation results on Quandary or SSV, but what about everyone else? If it's a tracker setup, same logic applies; maybe they find the nightkill, and we have more info based on that. There's no explicitly antitracker role in setup 3, so there's just straight up upside in that case. The only drawback is that it takes one less vote to vote somebody out, so people need to not be stupid and put votes on people early tomorrow. I'm not sure where you're getting the targeting a power role thing, unless you think that we're in setup 3 and scum already rolecopped the tracker. That is a huge leap to make, especially considering how many people are in this game right now - last night, if I'm mathing this right, they would have had a 1 in 7 chance to rolecop the tracker; if they had done so before last night, the tracker would be the obvious nightkill choice on night 2 or 3 when vanilla townies died. I mathed stuff out in the accompanying chart to show PR kill odds given all the scenarios I could think of.  I consider those numbers to constitute "acceptable risk" compared to a possible loss today if we vote the wrong dude. Other than that, of course the scum are going to try to kill the PR tonight; that's going to happen regardless of whether we vote someone out or not today. It seems like you're saying that there's some further inherent risk to waiting that's not present if we vote someone today, and I'm just not seeing that - these numbers are completely independent of what we do today.
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Feb 22, 2016 19:45
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maf edit: I think I screwed up my math, it should be a 1 in 6, not a 1 in 7 chance, since scum wouldn't have rolecopped and killed Ecco last night. revised odds are...32.25% I think, give or take?
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Feb 22, 2016 19:53
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And if the cop/tracker gets nothing while we sail into permanent LYLO territory, what does that get us? We still have the same situation with Quandary / SSV as we do today.
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Feb 22, 2016 20:01
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Part of this is that the game is moving so ridiculously slow and getting anyone to respond (look at imgay's recent post) at all is like pulling teeth.
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Feb 22, 2016 20:02
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I don't know where Quandary went because he was clearly around when I made all those posts about imgay and MG2.
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Feb 22, 2016 20:02
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If we go into another night, please NK me scum.
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Feb 22, 2016 20:03
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Max posted:And if the cop/tracker gets nothing while we sail into permanent LYLO territory, what does that get us? We still have the same situation with Quandary / SSV as we do today. What is this even? "If the cop/tracker doesn't get any more information we're still in the same spot!" Sure. We're no worse off. Meanwhile, we have the chance of more information. You're not willing to no lynch so there is no difference between Permanent MYLO and Permanent LYLO so trying to use it as a scare is meaningless.
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Feb 22, 2016 20:11
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Max posted:And if the cop/tracker gets nothing while we sail into permanent LYLO territory, what does that get us? We still have the same situation with Quandary / SSV as we do today. Right, but we're in permanent MYLO territory right now. If we don't get anything, we don't get anything, the PR doesn't claim, and we have to make the same choice tomorrow that you're advocating making today. The chance at more information, in my eyes, is worth it. Say we get the vote right today and we go to tomorrow - would you still be opposed to a no-cuddle? When, in your mind, do we use the opportunity that MYLO gives us for more info? I think we should take the MYLO opportunity now because it gives us the best chance of not having our power roles die.
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Feb 22, 2016 20:12
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I suddenly understand what people felt when I suggested the No lunch in the soldiers game.
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Feb 22, 2016 20:15
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Basically, the cop would have a better time investigating someone that isn't Quandary/SSV, yes. If it's a tracker though, lol, good luck at finding anything actionable.
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Feb 22, 2016 20:18
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Maybe this is a nicer question to ask: We no lunch. Imagine that tomorrow dawns. A VT is killed and the tracker/cop come up with nothing, which brings us back to the question of Quandary/SSV (I do not envision a world where scum kill the town in that pairing.) Who would you vote for?
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Feb 22, 2016 20:21
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Even better, imagine the tracker/cop is killed in the middle of the night. Who do you vote for come the next day?
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Feb 22, 2016 20:22
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Ugh. Keeping in mind that if we have the cop/godfather setup, there is also a framer.
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Feb 22, 2016 20:23
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That's just going to introduce more insanity, honestly.
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Feb 22, 2016 20:32
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There are three possibilities PR catches someone redhanded, I vote that person PR doesn't come up with anything, I vote SSV PR dies, I read their post history Max, I really don't understand what you're getting at.
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Feb 22, 2016 20:44
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Max posted:If it's a tracker though, lol, good luck at finding anything actionable. Wouldn't it be a 1 in 3 chance, essentially, that they hit someone taking a night action? (or 1 in 6, if the rolecop claimed vig / scum WIFOM's using the nightkill with their fakeclaimed vig dude). Regardless, I think this is a bit of an exaggeration. Max posted:Maybe this is a nicer question to ask: We no lunch. Imagine that tomorrow dawns. A VT is killed and the tracker/cop come up with nothing, which brings us back to the question of Quandary/SSV (I do not envision a world where scum kill the town in that pairing.) Who would you vote for? I agree that scum will probably try and force us into making that choice, but your hypothetical still doesn't put us in a worse place than we are now. As it stands, I'm not sure because I don't trust BottleKnight (who's stated he'd vote SSV) or you (this much investment in avoiding no lynch is really, really weird to me especially because our worst possible result is "we still have to make the exact same decision". Max posted:Even better, imagine the tracker/cop is killed in the middle of the night. Who do you vote for come the next day? Would it be against the spirit of mafia to have everyone "claim results" before tonight (i.e. "If I were the tracker, I would have tracked ____ N1, ____ N2, and ____ N3; my results would be ____. If I were the cop...(similar)"), thereby giving us something to work off of if the PR is killed tonight? Is there a downside to that? Max posted:That's just going to introduce more insanity, honestly. Chance of cop/framer intersection, given blind choices, is something like 1/5*1/4 = 5% (I think the scum would have 4 possible frame targets and the cop would have 5 possible investigation targets. Check my math, I've already screwed numbers up once today).
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Feb 22, 2016 20:46
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I'm sorry, I wasn't asking for people to claim their results now. I imagine if the cop / tracker had something good, they would have told us at this point. I'm saying, as a regular old player in this game, who would you vote for at this moment, since it's entirely possible we will find ourselves in the same situation tomorrow if there's a no lunch.
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Feb 22, 2016 20:53
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chaoslord posted:There are three possibilities Why do you think it's SSV over Quandary?
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Feb 22, 2016 20:59
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Chaos lord, you realize that with a framer, a cop coming in and going "I found scum) still won't be a slam dunk, right?
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Feb 22, 2016 21:08
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Max posted:Why do you think it's SSV over Quandary? I posted my theory earlier: chaoslord posted:It's real easy y'all. MG2 said they were asking for a replacement and multiple people had just said they were willing to vote BK. If Pig had granted the request BK was probably gonna be lynched. Rather than wait and see what happened SSV came in to drop the hammer. They are scum buddies. BK is scum. Had Pig come in and said "Sure, I'll replace MG2 in the night", me, you, Ecco, and probably MG2 would have voted for BK. That's -2, and with Ecco and Jose being the only two alternatives on the docket it was going to be a BK lynch. He was dead in the water. SSV hammering 3 hours before deadline when we know for sure that MG2 had asked to be replaced was a calculated move to save a scum. I also like Quandary to be town. Quandary had campaigned for the lynch of Jose, SSV had only gone "This post is kind of weird" at Jose once. I have a null read on SSV outside of the hammer which looks real bad, but that hammer + me believing Quandary makes it pretty easy for me.
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Feb 22, 2016 21:13
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Max posted:Chaos lord, you realize that with a framer, a cop coming in and going "I found scum) still won't be a slam dunk, right? 
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Feb 22, 2016 21:13
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Max posted:I'm sorry, I wasn't asking for people to claim their results now. I imagine if the cop / tracker had something good, they would have told us at this point. I'm saying, as a regular old player in this game, who would you vote for at this moment, since it's entirely possible we will find ourselves in the same situation tomorrow if there's a no lunch. Probably SSV. I don't believe it's coincidence how hard Quandary tried to push Jose for two days before Jose got vigged, and quite honestly SSV was a complete nonfactor for two days other than sheeping an opinion on MG2 and hammering on day 2. I also don't trust your posts. I would also also still really strongly prefer a no lynch today because this vote can always be made tomorrow, possibly with more data. Writing this post made me realize that we're only on day 3, not day 4. This game has felt longer than it is. I don't think that affects my math post except cosmetically, though - the numbers of scum / town were still the same last night. Max posted:Chaos lord, you realize that with a framer, a cop coming in and going "I found scum) still won't be a slam dunk, right? I screwed up the numbers and actually there's a 20% chance of the framer framing the same target as the cop so you have part of a point. That said why are you discounting the possibility of a tracker result in this post? There is nothing in the game that can obfuscate a tracker result.
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Feb 22, 2016 21:16
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I don't know what else to say at this point, I think I've punched myself out. I'm keeping my vote where it is for the rest of the day.
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Feb 22, 2016 21:22
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I don't think I've every seen any actionable information come from a tracker. There's a first time for everything, but I doubt it.
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Feb 22, 2016 21:23
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Ever*.
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Feb 22, 2016 21:23
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Max posted:I don't think I've every seen any actionable information come from a tracker. There's a first time for everything, but I doubt it. But in this situation, if we are in setup 3, the tracker is functionally the same as a cop, with no chance for obfuscation. Anyone performing a night action tonight that's not the tracker is scum, period (ie a flat binary check, exactly like a cop). Your discounting of that scenario is just willfully ignoring the numbers.
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Feb 22, 2016 21:36
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I'm not discounting it, I just doubt we get anything from it, aside from maybe clearing someone.
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Feb 22, 2016 21:47
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Flying Leatherman posted:But in this situation, if we are in setup 3, the tracker is functionally the same as a cop, with no chance for obfuscation. Anyone performing a night action tonight that's not the tracker is scum, period (ie a flat binary check, exactly like a cop). Your discounting of that scenario is just willfully ignoring the numbers. I really doubt that if we were in setup 3 anyone any night actions except the kill will happen. Especially now that you've drawn attention to the fact that all the rolecop will really do is show up as an investigation, so a tracker would have to investigate the one member of the scumteam that's actually doing the kill.
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Feb 22, 2016 21:49
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Alright, let me outline this as best I can, using English instead of numbers, because I haven't been communicating this well enough I guess? If we lunch today we have a blind 50% shot at losing (discounting analysis). If we lunch tomorrow with no PR results, we have the same chance. However, the chance of getting a result is nonzero, and the chance of the result being accurate is greater than it not being correct, meaning our chance at voting correctly tomorrow goes up in the aggregate. The chances of the power role being killed tonight are the same regardless of what we do today, so the only downside I see is that we have to yell at each other for another 48 hours. SSV, to your point, that's not necessarily true - I can't math it on a phone, but the scum would have an interest in finding or killing the tracker as fast as possible. Even if the rolecop gets caught, doubling the chances of catching the tracker tonight equates to the other scum being untrackable for the night kill. So, don't discount that.
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Feb 22, 2016 22:11
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It's less math and more style at this point. I don't relish the idea of having just more of this same conversation tomorrow, and in my mind there's a high chance of that happening. If we no-lunch then this was just a complete waste of a day and we'll be down one town tomorrow, which is kind of a bummer.
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Feb 22, 2016 22:18
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Like I said though, I'm tired of this conversation. I'm keeping my vote where it is, but if you all want to no-lunch go ahead. I've said my piece.
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Feb 22, 2016 22:21
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Flying Leatherman posted:Alright, let me outline this as best I can, using English instead of numbers, because I haven't been communicating this well enough I guess? Why would scum try so hard to catch the tracker? All they need to do is cause one more mislynch, and making getting caught out twice as likely seems to be a weak strategy.
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Feb 22, 2016 22:22
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