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got some chores tonight
Feb 18, 2012

honk honk whats for lunch...
what the gently caress

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got some chores tonight
Feb 18, 2012

honk honk whats for lunch...
why absurd

Anomalous Amalgam
Feb 13, 2015

by Nyc_Tattoo
Doctor Rope

dongsbot 9000 posted:

what the gently caress

What the gently caress is right. Some assholes are trying to burn us up man, times are rough.

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

All round mafia nice guy
3 mislynches and 2 successful primes is a perfect arsonist game with a win on D4.

Arsonists don't know if their primes are successful, so if the firefighter picks the right target, the arsonists will have no clue.

So, here are a couple options for getting to D4.

D1 no lynch, N1 prime, D2 no lynch, N2 prime, D3 lynch, N3 burn. D4 we have 1-3 dead, Ferngully can potentially out and say who she protected to have multiple confirmed town.

D1 no lynch, N1 prime, D2 no lynch, N2 burn, D3 lynch, N3 prime. D4 we have 1-2 dead, same situation and can reassess.

Basically, lynching Day 1 or Day 2 royally fucks us because we could potentially force ferngully to out herself, losing our only tool to block priming and confirm town.

In a normal set-up lynching is a powerful town tool, but here I think ferngully is our tool, and the arsonists have a lovely chance of burning her. If she has to out D3 that's fine, she can say who she doused N1 and N2 and based on how many people die on ignite we can potentially confirm some town.

Juchero
Feb 15, 2008


Wedge Regret

note that stumps can be primed and ignited as well

if you don't lynch him and he gets ignited instead, no stump

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

All round mafia nice guy

dongsbot 9000 posted:

what the gently caress

To know hope, or joy, or happiness, is to see it in the eyes of another as it turns to despair.

got some chores tonight
Feb 18, 2012

honk honk whats for lunch...
u telling me I can't even lynch adahn

Max
Nov 30, 2002

Since town get stumped, I think it's not a problem to lynch day 1 and 2. You lose some voting power but gain confirmed town opinions early on that will stick around. Scum are probably not going to waste a night priming a stump, which means that unless the player was already primed before they were lunched, they will probably be around for the whole game. Then you just hope they have good reads and opinions.

Max
Nov 30, 2002

dongsbot 9000 posted:

u telling me I can't even lynch adahn

Also, hooray, second game in a row where no-lunch is brought up Day 1.

Juchero
Feb 15, 2008


Wedge Regret

dongsbot 9000 posted:

u telling me I can't even lynch adahn

no there's no reason you can't lynch him, he would be dead for all purposes except that he can still contribute to discussion

even then scum might still set him on fire

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

All round mafia nice guy

Max posted:

Since town get stumped, I think it's not a problem to lynch day 1 and 2. You lose some voting power but gain confirmed town opinions early on that will stick around. Scum are probably not going to waste a night priming a stump, which means that unless the player was already primed before they were lunched, they will probably be around for the whole game. Then you just hope they have good reads and opinions.

That confirms town, sure, but it gives arsons one less person to prime.

It's entirely possible to lynch a townie that's been primed, wasting a LOT of the arsonists time, and that benefits town.

Also, when they do ignite, if the number is less than it should, we can see who argued for/against lynching the primed townie, as arsonists would rather lynch townies that haven't been primed.

All in all, I think no lynches for two days give town a pretty strong advantage.

Max
Nov 30, 2002

Adahn1986 posted:

That confirms town, sure, but it gives arsons one less person to prime.

It's entirely possible to lynch a townie that's been primed, wasting a LOT of the arsonists time, and that benefits town.

Also, when they do ignite, if the number is less than it should, we can see who argued for/against lynching the primed townie, as arsonists would rather lynch townies that haven't been primed.

All in all, I think no lynches for two days give town a pretty strong advantage.

I don't agree with this from a strategy standpoint and also from a meta standpoint. I've already explained why I think, strategically, I would rather have some confirmed town around early to listen to.

The other big issue with your plan is that we will have two whole game days of getting zero information about flips, since scum don't kill immediately.

I don't know what we are going to learn after a certain point, and discussion will become stagnant and toxic, most likely.

got some chores tonight
Feb 18, 2012

honk honk whats for lunch...
the contribution is the worst part

got some chores tonight
Feb 18, 2012

honk honk whats for lunch...
let me get a couple drinks tonight and ill get toxic asap

Max
Nov 30, 2002

dongsbot 9000 posted:

let me get a couple drinks tonight and ill get toxic asap

A toxic attitude leads to a toxic life. It sounds like you need to chill out, and possibly mediate under a tree?

##vote dongsbot

got some chores tonight
Feb 18, 2012

honk honk whats for lunch...
oh the taste of your lips im on a ride

Anomalous Amalgam
Feb 13, 2015

by Nyc_Tattoo
Doctor Rope
Yay for actual d1 content. I think there's some merit to both arguments. On one hand we keep our numbers filled meaning that it extends the number of players scum would have to douse and ignite to win, on the other we get flip information and narrow the suspicion list.

I'll await others to weigh in on it.

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

All round mafia nice guy

Max posted:

I don't agree with this from a strategy standpoint and also from a meta standpoint. I've already explained why I think, strategically, I would rather have some confirmed town around early to listen to.

The other big issue with your plan is that we will have two whole game days of getting zero information about flips, since scum don't kill immediately.

I don't know what we are going to learn after a certain point, and discussion will become stagnant and toxic, most likely.

Ok, even if we lynch completely randomly, there's a 1/9 chance of putting up Ferngully, our only tool to confirm town besides lynching them. If she's outed, she's dead. Nothing can save her.

Arsonists have to prime before they can kill, and they have 2 votes, so they are going to (as subtly as possible) make sure that the people they've primed aren't lynched, not to mention the fact that they're going to try and not get lynched themselves.

So, all they have to do is prime 2 people and get 1/3 of the players mislynched (hardly impossible) to win the game.

However, if there are 2 no lynches, arsonists only have a 2/7 chance of killing ferngully on N3.

We have a chance of lynching a primed tree, wasting an arsonist night action.

We have a chance of Ferngully coming out and confirming town if she correctly douses people, letting us narrow down who are the arsonists.

Mislynching is a powerful scum tool this game, and lynching is comparatively a weak scumhunting tool in this game relative to normal mafia games.

But, we've both made our cases. Days 1 and 2 I won't be voting anyone, for the reasons I've stated.

Max
Nov 30, 2002

Anomalous Amalgam posted:

Yay for actual d1 content. I think there's some merit to both arguments. On one hand we keep our numbers filled meaning that it extends the number of players scum would have to douse and ignite to win, on the other we get flip information and narrow the suspicion list.

I'll await others to weigh in on it.

This post seems a little too . . . hedgy.

Perhaps we'll have to . . . give you a trim.





Tree pun.

Max
Nov 30, 2002


I'm not going to keep this going because we clearly think differently on this subject. I think the game will get extremely stagnant and boring if we no lynch for two straight days, with the possibility of being back to square one, once we hit Day 3. I don't really want to play in a game like that, at all.

Max
Nov 30, 2002

Max posted:

This post seems a little too . . . hedgy.

Perhaps we'll have to . . . give you a trim.





Tree pun.

On reflection, I realize these were more shrub puns than tree puns. I apologize, and hope you can all forgive me.

Anomalous Amalgam
Feb 13, 2015

by Nyc_Tattoo
Doctor Rope
I can't rationalize Adahn taking this stance as scum, and hardly hedgy. Just sunmarizing the strat. discussion without all the :words:

Leaf me alone man. I'm just branching out and not letting my self get sapped by all the pseudo mechanics discussion.

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

All round mafia nice guy

Max posted:

On reflection, I realize these were more shrub puns than tree puns. I apologize, and hope you can all forgive me.

Are you one of the arsonists? Because then I'd be totally okay with lynching you.

Max
Nov 30, 2002

Adahn1986 posted:

Are you one of the arsonists? Because then I'd be totally okay with lynching you.

Why wood I ever say yes to this?

But I'm glad to see you coming around to the idea of lunching someone day 1.

Anomalous Amalgam
Feb 13, 2015

by Nyc_Tattoo
Doctor Rope

Adahn1986 posted:

Are you one of the arsonists? Because then I'd be totally okay with lynching you.

What's all the animosity fir?

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

All round mafia nice guy

Max posted:

Why wood I ever say yes to this?

But I'm glad to see you coming around to the idea of lunching someone day 1.

Well, mislynching helps the arsonists. A lot. It gives them the game in this setup.

Ferngully is our cop and our doctor with no self-protect. We simply can't afford to out/mislynch her, especially not early.

That's pretty obvious, I think, to everyone here, including you.

So yeah, I guess I am coming around!

Max
Nov 30, 2002

I'm just trying to imagine what 2 full game days would look like if we all agreed not to lunch anyone. I think things will stagnate and things will be impressively uninteresting.

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

All round mafia nice guy

Max posted:

I'm just trying to imagine what 2 full game days would look like if we all agreed not to lunch anyone. I think things will stagnate and things will be impressively uninteresting.

Well, if I'm not a crazy person and it WAS the best decision we could say, "Hey AR we have decided not to lunch anyone today so move the timeline forward and ask for night actions."

Basically if there was a consensus we could accelerate the game. Besides, if we no-lynched D1 and D2 the absolute earliest possible scum action would show up D3 anyways, and that's probably not even their best move.

Hypothetically.

Lots of people haven't chimed in since PM's have gone out so I could be off base here, but the potential of losing the doc/cop D1 or D2 is pretty gamebreaking, and odds of seeing a crispy ferngully D3 are 1/7 with two no-lynches.

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

All round mafia nice guy
and that's ONLY if they ignite, which they probably shouldn't do.

Juchero
Feb 15, 2008


Wedge Regret

Adahn1986 posted:

Well, if I'm not a crazy person and it WAS the best decision we could say, "Hey AR we have decided not to lunch anyone today so move the timeline forward and ask for night actions."

Basically if there was a consensus we could accelerate the game. Besides, if we no-lynched D1 and D2 the absolute earliest possible scum action would show up D3 anyways, and that's probably not even their best move.

Hypothetically.

hypothetically I would say no

got some chores tonight
Feb 18, 2012

honk honk whats for lunch...
2 days of nolynch is so stupid

got some chores tonight
Feb 18, 2012

honk honk whats for lunch...
adahn1986, why dont you understand this game, like, at all

got some chores tonight
Feb 18, 2012

honk honk whats for lunch...
your literal strategy is to have every single person vote no lynch for two days so we start the game on day 3 with two towns pre-ignited and nothing to go on except maybe that the firefighter randomly targetted one of those individuals for dousing

got some chores tonight
Feb 18, 2012

honk honk whats for lunch...
why dont we just vote no lynch for 8 days so that the scum can set everyone on fire and we can just die before we play teh game

got some chores tonight
Feb 18, 2012

honk honk whats for lunch...
like its obvious you suffer from some brain condition that makes it impossible for you to make good posts or reads or jokes or anything but maybe this game isnt for you

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

All round mafia nice guy
Ah well, d1 and d2 lynch with a n2 burn means 1/3 chance of ferngully dying without ever providing any useful information.

Guess we can do our best. Who cares about winning anyways?

got some chores tonight
Feb 18, 2012

honk honk whats for lunch...
maybe dont lynch ferngully then you blockhead

Moatillata
Dec 13, 2006

Maintain.

dongsbot 9000 posted:

2 days of nolynch is so stupid

Stupid like a fox

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

All round mafia nice guy

dongsbot 9000 posted:

your literal strategy is to have every single person vote no lynch for two days so we start the game on day 3 with two towns pre-ignited and nothing to go on except maybe that the firefighter randomly targetted one of those individuals for dousing

Dongsbot is right, firefighter is useless in an arsonist only scum game. Why not reveal? You're basically just a tree anyways.

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got some chores tonight
Feb 18, 2012

honk honk whats for lunch...
you literally approach the game like a broken robot "uhhh roleblockers are better than doctors cuz if you just randomly block people youre more likely to hit mafia as roleblocker than town as doctor" "uhhh if we randomly lynch people then we might accidentally lynch ferngully and then town will lose" "uhhh if youre vanilla tree i guess youre basically useless just wait for ferngully to tell us whos scum"

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