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It's a 12.5% chance to douse correctly if we no lynch today, but those odd increase exponentially each lynch. Granted if the firefighter is primed not much can be done long term. It's not a bad theory, but I think town benefits from lynch with information and narrowing the pool of players to better identify scum and make firefighter more viable.
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Jun 14, 2016 19:25
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| # ? Apr 24, 2024 11:03 |
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Max, dongs, and MMT all think that the odds of Ferngully dousing someone who is going to be primed are slim to none. That doesn't make her 'our most important tool', that makes her a 7th tree. I'm not scum, but their best strategy for winning, as I said, is 3 mislynches and 2 primes that don't overlap for D4 50% vote control. They can't, and won't, prime randomly.
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Jun 14, 2016 19:28
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You're starting to make this less fun with your insistence that your plan is amazing omg guyz how can u not c?
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Jun 14, 2016 19:32
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But, like . . . that's how mafia is played. Scum gets town to mislynch, town tries to lynch scum. There are PR's that may or may not help. And I hadn't even thought about what AA said, but it's a good point that lynching now narrows the pool of people that the firefighter would/should protect, increasing the odds of them screwing up scum. This isn't a good argument that you're making, but I also don't really see scum making this bold of an argument right out of the gate.
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Jun 14, 2016 19:32
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Eh, this isn't really mafia though. Scum don't know if they've primed successfully or not, at least as long as we have ferngully. My hope was to keep the odds of her dying due to chance low (1/7) for a couple days. Now they are 1/3 or 1/2 since the arsonists won't prime themselves and make up the biggest voting bloc. So let's try not to lynch ferngully!
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Jun 14, 2016 19:48
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Max is right. Everybody mislynch me. It's town only hope. I can still post inappropriately long after I'm a stump. 
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Jun 14, 2016 20:09
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No mislynches, we only lynch arsonists around here.
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Jun 14, 2016 20:10
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im not going to read the op b/c last time i did adahn1986 called me a scum for doing so but can firefighter self-protect
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Jun 14, 2016 20:14
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adahn, im not going to fall for your town tells i know youre not ferngully
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Jun 14, 2016 20:15
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no
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Jun 14, 2016 20:15
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real arsonist move over there from u
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Jun 14, 2016 20:15
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of course i'm a tree. everyone is a tree. anyone who doesn't claim tree is an idjit
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Jun 14, 2016 20:16
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im not a tree
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Jun 14, 2016 20:17
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TwJaELXadKo
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Jun 14, 2016 20:17
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im rizzrack the timbersaw and im here to wreck trees
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Jun 14, 2016 20:18
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i dunno who is what or why jus waitin for quidfinitum the hyper-rational australian to show up
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Jun 14, 2016 20:20
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anywho the proper counter-argument is the 22% chance of a scum lynch D1 and 25% chance D2, even if you close your eyes and point. i like those odds ##vote AA
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Jun 14, 2016 20:31
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Wait, was that just a magnificent gambit?
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Jun 14, 2016 20:32
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Adahn1986 posted:anywho the proper counter-argument is the 22% chance of a scum lynch D1 and 25% chance D2, even if you close your eyes and point. Do your odds change if people don't vote randomly? ##vote Adahn
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Jun 14, 2016 20:33
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Max posted:Wait, was that just a magnificent gambit? No I'm actually a giant dumbass, but in retrospect scum might see the argument and be like, "Hey, this doesn't seem terrible to me."
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Jun 14, 2016 20:34
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Adahn1986 posted:I see it more as people describing a chess game as if it's being played with checkers pieces, but I can see that the consensus is against the idea so I'll let it alone. You're trying to play a poker game with chess pieces.
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Jun 14, 2016 20:35
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Adahn1986 posted:No I'm actually a giant dumbass, but in retrospect scum might see the argument and be like, "Hey, this doesn't seem terrible to me." Why would scum agree that there's any merit to your proposed course of action?
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Jun 14, 2016 20:35
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Murmur Twin posted:You're trying to play a poker game with chess pieces. They both have kings and queens! Close enough.
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Jun 14, 2016 20:38
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Adahn1986 posted:Max, dongs, and MMT all think that the odds of Ferngully dousing someone who is going to be primed are slim to none. That doesn't make her 'our most important tool', that makes her a 7th tree. You're not describing their best strategy for winning, you're describing their quickest path to victory. If we start the game with two no-lynches, it means we go into D3 with 9 players of unknown alignment and 0-2 of them primed. How is that an improvement over a D1 with 9 players of unknown alignment with 0 of them primed?
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Jun 14, 2016 20:39
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is adahn scum???
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Jun 14, 2016 20:45
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Murmur Twin posted:You're not describing their best strategy for winning, you're describing their quickest path to victory. I'm not going to advocate no-lynching anymore, but I'll talk about D3, N3, and D4 a little. D3 we lynch. The arsonists will not want to lynch the people they've primed. N3 they ignite, and D4 we get loads of info. If Fern saved anyone, we have at least two, potentially 3 confirmed town (if fern decides to come out). If anyone burns who was a lynch target, we see who was resistant to putting them up. However, we should probably lynch day 1 and 2. We've got okay odds of getting an arsonist, even if we end up losing ferngully in the process. I'd put the odds of losing her at 50% by D3.
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Jun 14, 2016 20:48
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Adahn1986 posted:Condescending? Not one person has considered the possibility that the firefighter will be useful in this game, and everyone who's argued against my thoughts has operated under the assumption that she will never douse effectively. Regardless of your intent, it comes off as condescending since you're clearly implying that you're considering the game in a more intelligent way than the rest of us. But I disgress! ##vote Max This is almost entirely gut but I feel like he's going out of his way to sound like a town player.
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Jun 14, 2016 20:49
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dongsbot 9000 posted:is adahn scum??? lol gonna stump me?
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Jun 14, 2016 20:49
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Adahn1986 posted:If Fern saved anyone, we have at least two, potentially 3 confirmed town (if fern decides to come out). If anyone burns who was a lynch target, we see who was resistant to putting them up. I hadn't considered this point fwiw  I do still think we should lynch though.
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Jun 14, 2016 20:50
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Murmur Twin posted:Regardless of your intent, it comes off as condescending since you're clearly implying that you're considering the game in a more intelligent way than the rest of us. Sorry about that. I have a personality flaw where I state my ideas with far more confidence than I feel. It's worse in person, if you can imagine.
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Jun 14, 2016 20:50
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Murmur Twin posted:Regardless of your intent, it comes off as condescending since you're clearly implying that you're considering the game in a more intelligent way than the rest of us. Care to point out where I was doing that?
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Jun 14, 2016 20:52
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Adahn1986 posted:Sorry about that. I have a personality flaw where I state my ideas with far more confidence than I feel. It's worse in person, if you can imagine. No worries! If I ever point out something like that it's with the intent of being helpful, not judgmental Max posted:Care to point out where I was doing that? Like I said, it's mostly gut. I went back and reread you and didn't really see what I described (outside of that "hooray!" post). I guess the thing that's pinging me is that it feels like you're contributing a lot to the setup spec math discussion now because it's something you can be honest about even if scum. [  ]
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Jun 14, 2016 21:01
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Murmur Twin posted:No worries! If I ever point out something like that it's with the intent of being helpful, not judgmental Mmm. I was honestly trying to wrestle that argument to the ground because I have no interest in participating in this game if people were seriously going to consider the no-lynch idea.
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Jun 14, 2016 21:04
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Anomalous Amalgam posted:Yay for actual d1 content. I think there's some merit to both arguments. On one hand we keep our numbers filled meaning that it extends the number of players scum would have to douse and ignite to win, on the other we get flip information and narrow the suspicion list. Scum post.
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Jun 14, 2016 21:06
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Adahn, I want you to explain how what you were doing was A. a gambit, and B. How scum would think for a minute that it was a good idea or/at all favorable to them. There seems to be a disconnect in your logic. I've said it before, you're an intuitive player, but I'm just not following right now.
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Jun 14, 2016 21:07
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Quidnose posted:Scum post. Oh good, quidnose, with his infinite wisdom has arrived.  Uh oh, rolled my eyes, scum.txt 
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Jun 14, 2016 21:08
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Anomalous Amalgam posted:As of right now I don't want to bark up the wrong tree and am stumped as is usual for day 1 play. The mechanics discussion seems a bit heavy handed, but not warrantless. I just don't want the game to devolve into that. I'll be releafed if we get scum today. AA sure is posting a shitton of nothing, what is this
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Jun 14, 2016 21:10
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Anomalous Amalgam posted:Adahn, I want you to explain how what you were doing was A. a gambit, and B. How scum would think for a minute that it was a good idea or/at all favorable to them. There seems to be a disconnect in your logic. It's a numbers game. I was focusing on how to maximize the utility of our power role while ignoring the probability of lynching arsonists D1 and D2. I wasn't joking when I said I was being a dumbass, it wasn't a gambit. Like I said, even blind lynching D1 and D2 gives 22 and 25% odds of lynching an arsonist, respectively, which are pretty good. If an arsonist sees a townie advocating for a no-lynch for a couple days, they might think it was a good idea too. We have a much higher chance of losing our power role, but we gain a decent chance of getting 1 of the scum.
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Jun 14, 2016 21:11
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Quidnose posted:AA sure is posting a shitton of nothing, what is this Clearly tree puns man. It's day 1.
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Jun 14, 2016 21:11
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| # ? Apr 24, 2024 11:03 |
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Adahn1986 posted:It's a numbers game. I was focusing on how to maximize the utility of our power role while ignoring the probability of lynching arsonists D1 and D2. But why would they think it's a good idea that's where I'm not following.
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Jun 14, 2016 21:14
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