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Anomalous Amalgam
Feb 13, 2015

by Nyc_Tattoo
Doctor Rope

Adahn1986 posted:

It's a numbers game. I was focusing on how to maximize the utility of our power role while ignoring the probability of lynching arsonists D1 and D2.

I wasn't joking when I said I was being a dumbass, it wasn't a gambit. Like I said, even blind lynching D1 and D2 gives 22 and 25% odds of lynching an arsonist, respectively, which are pretty good.

If an arsonist sees a townie advocating for a no-lynch for a couple days, they might think it was a good idea too. We have a much higher chance of losing our power role, but we gain a decent chance of getting 1 of the scum.



But why would they think it's a good idea that's where I'm not following.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

got some chores tonight
Feb 18, 2012

honk honk whats for lunch...

Quidnose posted:

Scum post.

insanely brutal that i agree w/ quid

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

All round mafia nice guy

Anomalous Amalgam posted:

But why would they think it's a good idea that's where I'm not following.

Granted, odds of a mislynch D1 and D2 are 7/9 and then 3/4 or 6/7 depending on what happens D1, but that's if it's completely random.

Most people playing assume that Ferngully isn't going to douse correctly, so scum probably believes that as well. That means no-lynching really would be a total scum benefit.

I don't think so, but I'm a weirdo.

Max
Nov 30, 2002

Disagree with Adahn that scum would advocate for a no-lunch. It's in their best interest to thin the herd as fast as possible.

Quidnose posted:

Scum post.

This I agree with.

Max
Nov 30, 2002

I am really not a fan of using odds to describe what may or may not happen in a game of mafia, since it assumes that a random number generator is making decisions, and not people who are actually looking at posts and weighing their options.

Max
Nov 30, 2002

I say that knowing that I invoked some numbers earlier.

Quidthulhu
Dec 17, 2003

Stand down, men! It's only smooching!

There's no way Adahn is scum. He comes in with a controversial idea and is not only latching on to it to the death he's also considering other points of view and actually engaging with people. This is not a scum mindset, and I don't even see scum coming in and dropping this suggestion. IF they were to do that, I think they would have shrugged and backed off when everyone starts breaking it apart. Adahn did none of this.

I want to give Max the benefit of the doubt but I do not like this post:

Max posted:

You seem to be approaching this as if the person that gets lunched will be a completely random decision. That's not the case. A big part of this game, and this setup in particular, is dissecting what people say. Dongs was rude before, but they had a point. No lunching day 1 and 2 gives scum two free primed targets, or even a free kill, before they ever have to worry about getting lunched.

It's sort of suspicious that you can't see that, but I don't know how new a player you are.

Mafia dad's and then throws some casual shade on to Adahn without committing to it fully.

I also don't like dongs coming in and being mean-pig about things, because that was a scumtell for him before. Let me look at a few things fast.

Quidthulhu
Dec 17, 2003

Stand down, men! It's only smooching!

Adahn1986 posted:

If Ferngully douses incorrectly N1 and N2, yes.

But D3 it puts us in an interesting situation. The arsonists won't want to lynch the people they've primed, even if Ferngully saved them.

Town also has 4 potentially useful lynches, because lynching either arsonist or either primed townie is "good" in that it slows scum.

The 'strategy' makes use of our power role. If we get lucky and she correctly douses a couple townies, the arsonists are boned.

If, however, we play the game with a 'lynch erryday' mentality, we cripple ferngully as we're likely to lynch her, out her, or get her randomly primed.

You guys do make good points though. It's just a question of whether we want to make use of our power role or not.

Like this isn't a scum post at all.

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

All round mafia nice guy

Max posted:

No lunching day 1 and 2 gives scum two free primed targets, or even a free kill, before they ever have to worry about getting lunched.

It's sort of suspicious that you can't see that, but I don't know how new a player you are.


Max posted:

Disagree with Adahn that scum would advocate for a no-lunch. It's in their best interest to thin the herd as fast as possible.

Now this is a bit of a head-scratcher.

Max
Nov 30, 2002

See my later posts. I don't think scum would have walked in to the game and made that argument right off the bat, I just REALLY didn't want people to even entertain that idea, because it sounds like a snoozefest.

Max
Nov 30, 2002

Max posted:

This isn't a good argument that you're making, but I also don't really see scum making this bold of an argument right out of the gate.

This one in particular, which I guess you both missed? I just couldn't understand why you were even entertaining that idea.

Quidthulhu
Dec 17, 2003

Stand down, men! It's only smooching!

Li Dawny posted:

You're starting to make this less fun with your insistence that your plan is amazing omg guyz how can u not c?

This is odd play from Li. She's spent a few posts attacking Adahn for being condescending and insisting that his plan is sound, but...isn't actually doing anything to say his play is scummy, just that she doesn't like it. But she is throwing hard shade.

Quidthulhu
Dec 17, 2003

Stand down, men! It's only smooching!

Max posted:

But, like . . . that's how mafia is played. Scum gets town to mislynch, town tries to lynch scum. There are PR's that may or may not help.

And I hadn't even thought about what AA said, but it's a good point that lynching now narrows the pool of people that the firefighter would/should protect, increasing the odds of them screwing up scum.

This isn't a good argument that you're making, but I also don't really see scum making this bold of an argument right out of the gate.

Cooling on Max with this.

Quidthulhu
Dec 17, 2003

Stand down, men! It's only smooching!

Anomalous Amalgam posted:

Why would scum agree that there's any merit to your proposed course of action?

This is an AMAZINGLY STRANGE turnaround question considering AA spent two posts insisting he was contemplating the merits of the idea cause he could see both sides.

Quidthulhu
Dec 17, 2003

Stand down, men! It's only smooching!

Murmur Twin posted:

Regardless of your intent, it comes off as condescending since you're clearly implying that you're considering the game in a more intelligent way than the rest of us.

But I disgress!

##vote Max

This is almost entirely gut but I feel like he's going out of his way to sound like a town player.

Wanna hear more on this from you MMT because I was feeling the same thing but I think I'm wrong. Do you still feel this way?

Quidthulhu
Dec 17, 2003

Stand down, men! It's only smooching!

Anomalous Amalgam posted:

Adahn, I want you to explain how what you were doing was A. a gambit, and B. How scum would think for a minute that it was a good idea or/at all favorable to them. There seems to be a disconnect in your logic.

I've said it before, you're an intuitive player, but I'm just not following right now.

I don't understand this post.

Anomalous Amalgam
Feb 13, 2015

by Nyc_Tattoo
Doctor Rope

Quidnose posted:

This is an AMAZINGLY STRANGE turnaround question considering AA spent two posts insisting he was contemplating the merits of the idea cause he could see both sides.

Yes merit in town no lynching and merit in town lynching... why are you misconstruing what was said and my question?

Quidthulhu
Dec 17, 2003

Stand down, men! It's only smooching!

Yeah, I think AA is scum. Everyone else took a hard line against Adahn from a mafia-theory standpoint and I don't see how AA as an experienced player doesn't make that argument.

Like I'm reading it in retrospect and I'm thinking "Adahn's idea isn't THE WORST THING EVER but it's ignoring the fact that we'd get info from flips, that the firefighter protecting people who don't burn doesn't necessarily confirm anyone when burns happen, etc. etc. etc."

AA doesn't mention any of this, just sits on the fence, admits to sitting on the fence, calls Adahn both town and scum, says he sees merit in the argument, then jumps on this minute point of "wait why would scum come in to agree with you" as if he forgot he soft agreed with him?

The whole thing looks real bad. Combined with a lot of white noise I think he's probably the first scum.

Soft Dongsbot as 2nd scum because of his mean-play scumtell.

Quidthulhu
Dec 17, 2003

Stand down, men! It's only smooching!

Anomalous Amalgam posted:

I think there's some merit to both arguments. On one hand we keep our numbers filled meaning that it extends the number of players scum would have to douse and ignite to win, on the other we get flip information and narrow the suspicion list.

I'll await others to weigh in on it.

No opinion, waiting for town consensus before chiming in.

Anomalous Amalgam posted:

I can't rationalize Adahn taking this stance as scum, and hardly hedgy. Just sunmarizing the strat. discussion without all the :words:

Leaf me alone man. I'm just branching out and not letting my self get sapped by all the pseudo mechanics discussion.

Calling Adahn town, excusing yourself from participating in the conversation.

Anomalous Amalgam posted:

False, I rode the fence because the two courses suggested both had good points.

:smug:


Lynching is probably the best course though given stumps being in the game.

Hedging again but falling on the "dunk" side.

THEN SUDDENLY:


Anomalous Amalgam posted:

As of right now I don't want to bark up the wrong tree and am stumped as is usual for day 1 play. The mechanics discussion seems a bit heavy handed, but not warrantless. I just don't want the game to devolve into that. I'll be releafed if we get scum today.

Once again not committing to anything.

Anomalous Amalgam posted:

It's a 12.5% chance to douse correctly if we no lynch today, but those odd increase exponentially each lynch. Granted if the firefighter is primed not much can be done long term.

It's not a bad theory, but I think town benefits from lynch with information and narrowing the pool of players to better identify scum and make firefighter more viable.

Hedging again using numbers.

AND THEN:

Anomalous Amalgam posted:

Why would scum agree that there's any merit to your proposed course of action?

So are you saying here that only town members would come in and agree that there was merit? Can you see how I look at that and say that it's weird that you, the ONLY person who ever outright came down and said there was merit in both sides, would be pushing this line of argumentation?

Quidthulhu
Dec 17, 2003

Stand down, men! It's only smooching!

Also please re-read all of those AA quotes. They literally respond to no one. You can read that as AA fully having a conversation with himself and that's hella weird.

Quidthulhu
Dec 17, 2003

Stand down, men! It's only smooching!

Consider an AA vote here, that would put him at -2 though.

I am going to be gone for a while, don't turbo anyone thanks~

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

All round mafia nice guy

Quidnose posted:

Yeah, I think AA is scum. Everyone else took a hard line against Adahn from a mafia-theory standpoint and I don't see how AA as an experienced player doesn't make that argument.

Like I'm reading it in retrospect and I'm thinking "Adahn's idea isn't THE WORST THING EVER but it's ignoring the fact that we'd get info from flips, that the firefighter protecting people who don't burn doesn't necessarily confirm anyone when burns happen, etc. etc. etc."

AA doesn't mention any of this, just sits on the fence, admits to sitting on the fence, calls Adahn both town and scum, says he sees merit in the argument, then jumps on this minute point of "wait why would scum come in to agree with you" as if he forgot he soft agreed with him?

The whole thing looks real bad. Combined with a lot of white noise I think he's probably the first scum.

Soft Dongsbot as 2nd scum because of his mean-play scumtell.

I wouldn't lump dongs in with scum because of that. He's a sensitive piggy and has it in for me. Everywhere.

Li Dawny
Apr 14, 2013

Quidnose posted:

This is odd play from Li. She's spent a few posts attacking Adahn for being condescending and insisting that his plan is sound, but...isn't actually doing anything to say his play is scummy, just that she doesn't like it. But she is throwing hard shade.

All I said was that it was not a good plan. I don't think he's being scummy with it, but his attitude is unnessesary given that this is a game among friends.

Anomalous Amalgam
Feb 13, 2015

by Nyc_Tattoo
Doctor Rope

Quidnose posted:

Yeah, I think AA is scum. Everyone else took a hard line against Adahn from a mafia-theory standpoint and I don't see how AA as an experienced player doesn't make that argument.

Like I'm reading it in retrospect and I'm thinking "Adahn's idea isn't THE WORST THING EVER but it's ignoring the fact that we'd get info from flips, that the firefighter protecting people who don't burn doesn't necessarily confirm anyone when burns happen, etc. etc. etc."

AA doesn't mention any of this, just sits on the fence, admits to sitting on the fence, calls Adahn both town and scum, says he sees merit in the argument, then jumps on this minute point of "wait why would scum come in to agree with you" as if he forgot he soft agreed with him?

The whole thing looks real bad. Combined with a lot of white noise I think he's probably the first scum.

Soft Dongsbot as 2nd scum because of his mean-play scumtell.

This post is riddled with inaccuracies. First, I state I can see both sides of the argument presented by Max and Adahn, but asking why would scum think Adahn's plan was a good idea, in no way contradicts me seeing merit in both presented courses of action.

Second, I definitely take a side and present the odds for a correct dousing to happen if we no lynch and explain how it's more advantageous for us to lynch.

Third, I never call adahn scum. I say I can't possibly rationalize him as scum with his plan because it doesn't seem like something scum would advocate.

That's why I question why he believes they would.

You're being dense and intentionally misconstruing my posts.

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

All round mafia nice guy

Li Dawny posted:

All I said was that it was not a good plan. I don't think he's being scummy with it, but his attitude is unnessesary given that this is a game among friends.

I don't have an attitude so much as a way of presenting my ideas that other people find extremely distasteful.

Li Dawny
Apr 14, 2013

Adahn1986 posted:

I don't have an attitude so much as a way of presenting my ideas that other people find extremely distasteful.

That would be an attitude. You can't change language because you disagree with being labeled with it.

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.
Right now I'd object pretty strongly to ending D1 before certain players (Infi / Moat spring to mind) have said anything game-relevant.

Anomalous Amalgam
Feb 13, 2015

by Nyc_Tattoo
Doctor Rope

Anomalous Amalgam posted:

This post is riddled with inaccuracies. First, I state I can see both sides of the argument presented by Max and Adahn, but asking why would scum think Adahn's plan was a good idea, in no way contradicts me seeing merit in both presented courses of action.

Second, I definitely take a side and present the odds for a correct dousing to happen if we no lynch and explain how it's more advantageous for us to lynch.

Third, I never call adahn scum. I say I can't possibly rationalize him as scum with his plan because it doesn't seem like something scum would advocate.

That's why I question why he believes they would.

You're being dense and intentionally misconstruing my posts.

Quid please address your inaccuracies and why you made them.

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

All round mafia nice guy

Li Dawny posted:

That would be an attitude. You can't change language because you disagree with being labeled with it.

Eh, everyone is entitled to their own opinions. I thought people were missing something that was important. I was missing an important point at the same time.

Different people perceive the world in different ways. You labeled me as 'condescending' and proceeded to insult/disparage me because of that.

I could label you as well, but as you say, this is a game among friends, and I choose not to.

I had a pretty big blind spot when I was making my argument, but that happens a lot. That's why I don't get attached to them.

got some chores tonight
Feb 18, 2012

honk honk whats for lunch...
quid id never use the same scumtell twice smh thats why i asked you to scumanalyze my posts

got some chores tonight
Feb 18, 2012

honk honk whats for lunch...

Anomalous Amalgam posted:

Quid please address your inaccuracies and why you made them.

calm down and im sorry you got rattled as obvious scum #1

got some chores tonight
Feb 18, 2012

honk honk whats for lunch...
dont worry theres only a 2/9 chance your scum

got some chores tonight
Feb 18, 2012

honk honk whats for lunch...

Adahn1986 posted:

Eh, everyone is entitled to their own opinions. I thought people were missing something that was important. I was missing an important point at the same time.

Different people perceive the world in different ways. You labeled me as 'condescending' and proceeded to insult/disparage me because of that.

I could label you as well, but as you say, this is a game among friends, and I choose not to.

I had a pretty big blind spot when I was making my argument, but that happens a lot. That's why I don't get attached to them.

i know li dawny like i know my own mind
you will never find anyone as trusting or as kind

Anomalous Amalgam
Feb 13, 2015

by Nyc_Tattoo
Doctor Rope
It's ok, I'll still get to voice my opinion about this cluster after I'm lynched.

got some chores tonight
Feb 18, 2012

honk honk whats for lunch...
not if youre SCUM

got some chores tonight
Feb 18, 2012

honk honk whats for lunch...
or are there scumps in this game

Anomalous Amalgam
Feb 13, 2015

by Nyc_Tattoo
Doctor Rope

dongsbot 9000 posted:

not if youre SCUM

I don't beleaf all this... ridiculed by a tiny bacon.

got some chores tonight
Feb 18, 2012

honk honk whats for lunch...
wait i just looked at the op how come every1s a fairy and not a tree

got some chores tonight
Feb 18, 2012

honk honk whats for lunch...
whos the dude riding the leaf

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

got some chores tonight
Feb 18, 2012

honk honk whats for lunch...
im him now

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