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Jeabus Mahogany
Feb 13, 2011

I'm mad because of a thorn in my impenetrable hide

ProfessorProf posted:

Generally speaking, if I use the red outside of updates, you can assume I'm just presenting one of Beatrice's moves ahead of schedule.

That sounds like you trying to shut down speculation early when part of the fun of this is the speculation. Not sure I like that.

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Quinn2win
Nov 9, 2011

Foolish child of man...
After reading all this,
do you still not understand?

Jeabus Mahogany posted:

That sounds like you trying to shut down speculation early when part of the fun of this is the speculation. Not sure I like that.

Not at all! I'm trying to encourage it, by giving the speculation crew something else to fight against after they've more or less settled on a theory. If I hadn't stepped in, there wouldn't be much else to talk about until I posted the next update, since people were all resting on "the culprit committed suicide after killing the other five" and calling it good.

Lord Koth
Jan 8, 2012

KataraniSword posted:

He's the only one, as far as I can recall, who didn't have other people around to testify for said alibi. The adults were all fighting about inheritance, the kids were all shored up in the guest house playing Smash Bros doing whatever family bonding activity people did in 1986, and the servants are all corpses.

Playing D&D, of course! Or perhaps some cheap knockoff version. :v:

resurgam40
Jul 22, 2007

Battler, the literal stupidest man on earth. Why are you even here, Battler, why did you come back to this place so you could fuck literally everything up?

ProfessorProf posted:

The profile page has been updated. Also, since you're having so much fun with this one, here's a tidbit to tide you over until I finish preparing more updates:

None of the six victims of the first twilight committed suicide.

Well... In that case, it would have to be Nanjo who set up the bodies, and did the final killing bit; like idonotlikepeas said, he's the only one without a solid alibi for last night. But, that would mean he'd have had to have some way of locking the last door without a key, because all of them are accounted for within the rooms and had to have been set up because of the envelopes, so Qrr's idea of a poisoned weapon doesn't really take that into account- I can see the injured parties locking themselves in the room, but why not with the master key, and why set up the envelope? The fact that there was also a letter left with Kinzo meant that he had to have been immolated before being shoved down the "air vent", or how did the letter survive? Did Nanjo just chuck it down the air duct after burning the corpse? That's too much of a risk that the letter would be damaged.

On thing, though: Virgilia didn't just fail to append the closed room description to the Boiler room, she also didn't say that Genji and Kanons rooms, the VIP room and chapel, were closed rooms either. She also doesn't mention that the keys were found in envelopes in those rooms, only were "discovered" (although there was a letter found with Kinzo). That could have been Virgilia just saving time, but assuming she wasn't... what then?

idonotlikepeas
May 29, 2010

This reasoning is possible for forums user idonotlikepeas!
Kinzo's letter isn't too tricky. It clearly wasn't in the incinerator with Kinzo, so you just leave it in the boiler room before murdering anyone.

Amidiri
Apr 26, 2010
My new theory is that Kinzo killed everyone and set it up and then burnt a body double, and every death moving forward will also be Kinzo's doing.

Basically gently caress Kinzo. I don't trust that man.

SardonicTyrant
Feb 26, 2016

BTICH IM A NEWT
熱くなれ夢みた明日を
必ずいつかつかまえる
走り出せ振り向くことなく
&



If Nanjo was involved in this murder, was he involved in the last two? It seems likely. He was one of the last killed in the first loop, and Battler only saw his body after Shannon, Gohda, and George died. So far, there's a possibility he was alive for most of the ritual in the previous loops.

Qrr
Aug 14, 2015


resurgam40 posted:

Well... In that case, it would have to be Nanjo who set up the bodies, and did the final killing bit; like idonotlikepeas said, he's the only one without a solid alibi for last night. But, that would mean he'd have had to have some way of locking the last door without a key, because all of them are accounted for within the rooms and had to have been set up because of the envelopes, so Qrr's idea of a poisoned weapon doesn't really take that into account- I can see the injured parties locking themselves in the room, but why not with the master key, and why set up the envelope? The fact that there was also a letter left with Kinzo meant that he had to have been immolated before being shoved down the "air vent", or how did the letter survive? Did Nanjo just chuck it down the air duct after burning the corpse? That's too much of a risk that the letter would be damaged.

On thing, though: Virgilia didn't just fail to append the closed room description to the Boiler room, she also didn't say that Genji and Kanons rooms, the VIP room and chapel, were closed rooms either. She also doesn't mention that the keys were found in envelopes in those rooms, only were "discovered" (although there was a letter found with Kinzo). That could have been Virgilia just saving time, but assuming she wasn't... what then?

If they locked themselves in the room using the master key, that would be consistent with them having the master key on their person. As for the envelope, it would have been put there earlier by the killer - the only question there is if the dying servant would have messed with it and how the killer would have set it up so they died near it. But that wouldn't be impossible to do.

In general, all 6 envelopes could have been placed after only a single murder (or even no murders if Nanjo could steal a master key).

I kind of assume that all 6 rooms are closed rooms because if they aren't then the problem is trivial. It is true that Virgilia did not say so, and that could be the answer, but I assume they just didn't want to repeat the same thing 6 times. It'd be something for Battler to bring up, at least.

witchcore ricepunk
Jul 6, 2003

The Golden Witch
Who Solved the Epitaph


A Probability of 1/2,578,917

ProfessorProf posted:

None of the six victims of the first twilight committed suicide.

poo poo! OK, well, hmm. I'll still keep my suicide motivation theories in mind, since it's good to try to have a deeper understanding of the people involved regardless.

I'm not convinced that a person outside of the 6 could have been involved in this; otherwise, contending with the closed room scenario gets to be too much of a distraction. I like the idea that Kinzo, the odd body out, is the perpetrator in this case. Considering that this is the second time he's fought the boiler and lost... I wonder if his cape is made of rayon. That is to say, accidentally combusting yourself isn't technically suicide. :colbert:

resurgam40
Jul 22, 2007

Battler, the literal stupidest man on earth. Why are you even here, Battler, why did you come back to this place so you could fuck literally everything up?

Qrr posted:

If they locked themselves in the room using the master key, that would be consistent with them having the master key on their person. As for the envelope, it would have been put there earlier by the killer - the only question there is if the dying servant would have messed with it and how the killer would have set it up so they died near it. But that wouldn't be impossible to do.

But in that instance, how would they be killed? The killer wouldn't be able to use the master keys to lock the door once he got out for at least one or two instances, and no one committed suicide, so how would they end up dead? If they were shot from outside the room, that woulds leave some evidence behind and it wouldn't be a closed room, so in your scenario, how exactly would they die, and in what order?

Alopex
May 31, 2012

This is the sleeve I have chosen.

Lord Koth posted:

Playing D&D, of course! Or perhaps some cheap knockoff version. :v:

Jessica plays barbarian, Battler's the rogue, George is a cleric -

George is the GM because Maria's goal when she does it seems to be killing the entire party with unfairly OP magic. She likes running Tomb of Horrors.

Qrr
Aug 14, 2015


resurgam40 posted:

But in that instance, how would they be killed? The killer wouldn't be able to use the master keys to lock the door once he got out for at least one or two instances, and no one committed suicide, so how would they end up dead? If they were shot from outside the room, that woulds leave some evidence behind and it wouldn't be a closed room, so in your scenario, how exactly would they die, and in what order?

Five of them (including Kinzo) are killed by stabbing or shooting or whatever it is. Then they're placed in their rooms with the letters, and the doors are locked with a master key (and the last one is locked with the key found in the room where the sixth will die). Then the killer puts the envelope in the sixth room. Then they get the last servant and stab/shoot them in such a way that they don't instantly die. They chase them until they enter the sixth room and lock themselves in, after which they die from blood loss or poison or witches with magic stakes. Or maybe not that last one.

Basically with a time delay on the death, one of the closed rooms can be explained, and if one is explained then they're all explained. Really Beatrice is acting like this loop of closed rooms is more impressive than a single closed room, and while it is more complicated it's also weaker because if any of the rooms isn't really closed then none of them are closed.

Dr Pepper
Feb 4, 2012

Don't like it? well...

Jeabus Mahogany posted:

That sounds like you trying to shut down speculation early when part of the fun of this is the speculation. Not sure I like that.

This is Prof making up for one of the weird ways being LPed can effect the pacing of the game.

Actually playing Umineko the usual player would hear that Red rather soon, before they can start to settle on any foolish human suicide theory.

Prof just did the proper thing and showed you all how such reasoning is useless and showed how the only answer lies with the Golden Witch.

Yurigasaki
Feb 27, 2016

Lulu's so clever!
If you can't handle having your theories shot down by the witch then you can always just submit to her and say that magic is real! I'm sure it'd save us all a lot of time.

more seriously though, this is without a doubt my favourite puzzle in this episode. I find it hard to pick out overall favourite moments from these answer arcs but this Twilight is definitely up there.

Danaru
Jun 5, 2012

何 ??
Just catching up, I've read through Umineko and decided to read through this to see thread reactions and to see everything I missed the first time. It's almost upsetting how glaringly obvious the answers to all these closed rooms are the second time around. <:mad:>

The witch did it using magic, obviously

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Yeah, this closed room isn't particularly strong. Even if we get rid of the suicide theory any method that doesn't kill one of them immediately breaks the entire chain. Whoever suggested poison, that could work, but I prefer this situation: I set up 5 of the rooms, then stab one of the servants in place that makes them flee into the room I want the closest place to flee too, and since I'm chasing them they lock the door behind them, I just wait for them to die from blood loss and voila "closed room". I still have the murder weapon outside of the room, then I dispose of it.

Try harder, Beatrice.

Everyone's right that if suicide wasn't involved, either there has to have been a mutual stabbing with someone getting a hit on the murder and them both dying, or Nanjo did it. As far as we know, everyone else has a perfect alibi.

E: Actually scratch that. That's not true at all. Any of the kids could have done it. They were asleep when the adults came around. Any one of them could have got up and done it, then gone back to sleep.

E2: I'm close to suspecting Battler as the murderer. He's always survived thus far, and if we can mistrust his accounts of what happened, then we're limited to the red text and post-hoc analysis of things people found after the fact. It would explain why he was so taken with a 19th person theory too. He could deny witches and hide his involvement in the murders.

CottonWolf fucked around with this message at 13:38 on Dec 17, 2016

Nea
Feb 28, 2014

Funny Little Guy Aficionado.

Danaru posted:

Just catching up, I've read through Umineko and decided to read through this to see thread reactions and to see everything I missed the first time. It's almost upsetting how glaringly obvious the answers to all these closed rooms are the second time around. <:mad:>

The witch did it using magic, obviously

You should hop in the discord of the witches, then, what for people who've read it.

https://discord.gg/5pV5K

idonotlikepeas
May 29, 2010

This reasoning is possible for forums user idonotlikepeas!
Battler-as-murderer doesn't make as much sense once you start looking at motives - he abandoned the family already, which would have made it difficult or impossible to inherit. It makes it hard to imagine that he's going to turn around and decide to murder a dozen people for money, and the only one he seems to actually hate is his father (who is still alive on this go-round). That's not to say it's impossible, at all, and it would provide him with a good way of denying the witch (I did it, and here's how), but it might be interesting to look at some other people first.

So let's do that, actually. It isn't necessary to provide motive to convict someone, but it can be a useful tool to narrow the list of suspects. Right now, it feels to me like money is going to be the driving force a lot of the time. Everyone seems to have an immediate need for it. Nanjo looks suspicious on the basis of alibis, and he's also the person we see right in the intro pressing Kinzo to make a will; it's possible that he has access to a secret will nobody knows about now, given he's spent a lot of time alone with a demented old man. Krauss is also a strong suspect right now from the perspective of motive; since he didn't die this time and, he's right in line to inherit. Obviously he might die in one of the later twilights, at which point that suspicion just follows down the line until we reach the person most likely to currently inherit the money. (Which might or might not be the oldest descendant, if someone starts throwing suspicion on someone else. Getting somebody convicted of murder is a good way of taking them out of the running too.) If the adults were really all in a conference room all night, he couldn't have done it personally, but he might have made an arrangement with someone else to help. (It's also possible that further examination of their conference will show that there was some gap where they weren't together, but for now we can't assume that.)

So let's look at everyone who is still alive:

Krauss: Strong motive, but almost certainly would be in that conference all night. No opportunity to do anything himself.
Natsuhi: At the conference? Doesn't she sometimes get kicked out of these things? She might have had opportunity. And she's got loads of motive, both financial and emotional.
Jessica: In the guest house. Almost certainly has opportunity. Unlikely to have killed Kanon - possibly someone else did and she set this up as revenge? Maybe she was forced to, because he caught her killing someone else? Doesn't seem to have a strong financial motive, but might have wanted to kill Kinzo to escape him, or out of revenge for him loving everyone up. Asked to see the bodies, which might have been an attempt to tamper with evidence.
Eva: Strong motive if she can later eliminate Krauss. Very unlikely to have ever left that conference. Probably lacks opportunity.
Hideyoshi: Same deal as Eva, but also just seems less inclined towards forceful action in general.
George: Basically a saint aside from his occasional desire to "tease" his girlfriend. Very unlikely to have killed Shannon. On the other hand, also did ask to see the bodies, and might have been forced into it the same way Jessica might have been. There might also be another side of him we haven't seen.
Rudolf: One of the instigators behind the conference plot, unlikely to have left the conference room at any point.
Kyrie: Like Natsuhi, could potentially have been kicked out, although I would not like to be the person who tried to do it. Could potentially be desperate over money. Overall seems like an unlikely fit for murder, but if it's her plot everyone else should probably just give up.
Battler: has opportunity since everyone was asleep, and the narration seems a bit less centered on him so far this time around as well. Dubious motive but maybe he's after revenge or something rather than money.
Nanjo: currently the best suspect. Not clear why he'd need money yet, but we also haven't explored his deal as deeply as some other people. Conducted the examinations of the bodies, so he's also capable of concealing any sneaky causes of death, like poisoning-with-post-mortem-stabbing (a more likely scenario for someone of his age). Could be working with or for someone else, especially the people in the conference. (Someone in that room keeping everyone there with arguments provides him with time to work.)
Rosa: Unlikely this time around, because there are way too many people between her and the money. Unless her motivation is revenge against Psycho Dad, but if that's it, why kill the servants? Probably no opportunity anyway since she's unlikely to leave the conference.
Maria: absolutely physically impossible for her to commit these crimes.
Various witches and animes: don't exist.

Did I miss anything?


(Incidentally, Kyrie's "maybe it isn't Kinzo" theory isn't totally off-base, either. I don't think it contradicts anything red, even, because a dead body Kinzo smuggled onto the island isn't a "human".)

idonotlikepeas fucked around with this message at 17:03 on Dec 17, 2016

oath2order
Oct 12, 2013

It's MAGIC. I don't have to explain shit!


idonotlikepeas posted:

Various witches and animes: don't exist.



Without love it cannot be seen.


Anyways, you've all been working really hard, and prof needs the day off, so he's given us permission to post something of a :siren:Bonus Update!:siren:

After Umineko completed, a bunch of the short stories--TIPS, were put into Sound Novel format and compiled on a Fan Disk: Umineko No Naku Koro Ni Tsubasa.

Most of those stories have been translated, if rather roughly, and a fan patch exists. We'll be releasing the translated TIPs in Prof's SSLP format as they become appropriate and spoiler free. Tiistai edited the original translation and I did the grunt work of formatting the LP. It's gonna be a less refined and sleek SSLP than Prof's operation, but then again, so is Tsubasa.

oath2order
Oct 12, 2013

It's MAGIC. I don't have to explain shit!


Bernkastel's Letter
-------------------
Original Translation by theacefrehley of AnimeSuki. Edited by Tiistai.







BGM: Apathy

"Are you feeling well?" Such a typical greeting would most certainly sound like sarcasm to you in your current situation.
That's why it'd be kinder of me to ask like this:
Are you still alive, my beloved friend?

Thank you for your response the other day.
I was very surprised that you still had enough energy left in you to write a letter to me.
Well, I was the one that urged you to write a response in the first place.
Even so, the mere fact that you could muster up the energy to write a letter, just for my sake, was a great surprise. Or perhaps a miracle.




I agree with your opinion. The one pulling the wires is possibly indeed Lambdadelta.
For the sole purpose of taking revenge on me, that girl must have found a witch with an extremely bad affinity with me and then waited for me to be lured out.
And I fell into her trap like a duck.
...Oh, I see. I guess that was so ridiculous that it made you write your letter to me. I can practically see you with that malicious smile on your face.

But, considering your disease, she may actually be someone very precious to me.
If she is a much higher-ranking witch than I am, it means she is also that much closer to being afflicted with your disease.
That is to say, there is only way to escape from the disease that is eating into you — no, into us — and she is putting that way into practice... And ironically, that means she is teaching it to me as well.
Well, not that it matters. But if going along with that girl's farce means even a slight relief for your disease, I'd like you to please help me achieve that.

Lambdadelta boasted that I will 'absolutely' not be able to win in this game board.
At that exact moment, I could paradoxically identify the rule X. She really is a stupid girl.
What I mean is that it's like that story that always starts from June 20th. This is likely the core of the witch Beatrice.

Indeed, if that's how it is, this witch named Beatrice certainly is interesting.
She has opened up a world that I, that girl and you didn't even know about.
We could presume that as the source of her magic, the rule Y.
Lambdadelta may have lightly touched upon it as well but Beatrice's level is entirely out of her reach.
If we say that this is what magic is, then, Beatrice aside, none of us could call herself anything like a witch.




Should she take this to heart and fully comprehend it...
Then never mind me, not even Lambdadelta would be any match for her... and, most probably, she would be afflicted with the same disease as you.
But nevertheless, it's all very interesting. I see this rule Y as the very existance of the witch Beatrice.

Indeed. I could analyze the situation this far, as well.
And, certainly, there has to be one more rule: the rule Z.
After all, we have observed way too many phenomena that cannot be explained with the rules X and Y alone.

The true nature of rule Z is unknown.
Based on what Lambdadelta has said, it seems that this factor has a lethally bad affinity to me.
If we take 'that' as a hint... I wonder what it could mean.

For the time being, I assume that this rule Z is something that confuses and leads away from the truth, like a maze.
That is, a maze that won't allow me to come closer to the rules X and Y.

My powers could be likened to drawing a map by spending a hundred years checking every fork of the maze.
In other words, no matter how complex the maze may be, I will eventually be able to capture it in its entirety, with certainty.
(By the way, in Lambdadelta's case, I guess she would just keep on walking along the walls until she arrived at the exit, even if it took a thousand years. No, more like she would make holes in the walls and walk right through in a straight line, without any detours, to the exit.)

What could it be, this 'maze that has a bad affinity with me'...?




Yes, if it's something like that, it would explain that rock-paper-scissors example that Lambdadelta mentioned... Even if it's a maze that my powers can't capture, for someone like her who can just walk towards the goal through the walls it's not an obstacle at all.

...I can understand the general idea. But if I try to grasp it as a rule, I don't understand it at all.
Rules are supposed to be immutable by nature, right?
Something indeterminate being a rule is beyond my common sense.
It's something that has to be solid despite looking like a liquid on the surface... Just like mercury.
In Latin, mercury means 'living silver'.
It was thought to be the key to eternal youth and as such it was a highly valued subject of research for alchemists.
How ironic. So, it's clearly related to the fact that she's calling herself a witch and an alchemist.
Unless I can unravel this rule Z... no, basically it's exactly because I can't unravel it that Beatrice is a witch.



If you have read all this way, I'm sure you have started laughing by now. Yes, I could wager on it.
Soon you'll see my troubled face and feel like sneering at me even more.

Before long, I'll come pay you a visit.
The get-well gift will be me. You may laugh at me and ridicule me all you want. That is what you like, isn't it?
For the sake of meeting a friend I haven't seen in a long time, please, come back to life.

From your friend who still believes to be dear to you,
Bernkastel

After the letter, the story includes two poems. They were included in the original pamphet that contained both Bernkastel's Letter and Anti-Mystery vs. Anti-Fantasy



-----

EagerSleeper
Feb 3, 2010

by R. Guyovich
Thank you for the TIPS post! I also remember one where it was focused on Gohda in the last LP that made me like him even more.

I'm assuming the reason why Beatrice is nor considered a witch like Bernkastel or Lambdadelta is because Beatrice's magic is based off on uncertainty of the truth (being able to not be proven/disproven), rather than Higurashi's looping time shenanigans being proven as reality. So long as no one is able to disprove that the things that Beatrice does is not real, then Beatrice is alive and powerful to all hell. They are Schrödinger's witch.

The others such as Bernkastel and Lambdadelta have powers that are objectively true, independent of the viewer's belief towards magic. So Beatrice can be both way more OP than them by nature of encompassing everything that is not understood, but also really weak if someone is able to clear the truth.

tiistai
Nov 1, 2012

Solo Melodica

EagerSleeper posted:

Thank you for the TIPS post! I also remember one where it was focused on Gohda in the last LP that made me like him even more.

Yeah, there's a good chance that's going to be the next one, eventually.

oath2order
Oct 12, 2013

It's MAGIC. I don't have to explain shit!


tiistai posted:

Yeah, there's a good chance that's going to be the next one, eventually.

My intention is to put that one out during the break between Episodes 3 and 4.

Like Clockwork
Feb 17, 2012

It's only the Final Battle once all the players are ready.

nooooo my forgetfulness made a fool of me and it's been recorded noooooooo :saddowns:

That's an interesting analysis of Beatrice's power... I guess her entire deal is that she's a Schrödinger's witch, like was already said, but what does that actually mean for this mystery?

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator


Thing is, it's not entirely clear how killing everyone gets you the money. That's why I've never really bought it as a motive. I think it has to be something emotional. Especially, as if everyone around you dies and they you inherit a huge amount, when the police eventually arrive you'll definitely be suspect numero uno.

idonotlikepeas posted:

:words: on the suspects

I agree with basically all of this though. I think the real question we should be asking at this point is, is it the same murderer in every game? I'm not sure if we have any way of answering that yet, but if we could answer it, we suddenly have a lot more information to work with, rather than having to assume that every game were independent.

Quinn2win
Nov 9, 2011

Foolish child of man...
After reading all this,
do you still not understand?


When Ronove rebuked her, Beato stuck her tongue at him without showing any signs of shame.

"Uhihihi, sorry, sorry. Playing with Battler just put me into such a good mood."
"*cackle* So, Battleer? What do you think of my move? If you can't think of anything in particular, I wouldn't mind showing you how I made the goats carry the corpses... and seal all of the rooms with magic, okaaaaay?"
"Do what you want. I'll listen respectfully to this 'magic theory' that you claim is true. However, I can claim my 'human theory', even though it's completely different from yours, without any interference from your claim."
"In other words, there's no need for me to pay attention to your bullshit!! Go ahead and show me how you can lock the door with your multi-colored magic simply by waving your magic staff. Just like those guys with their toad oil and all-purpose kitchen knives! Virgilia, let's reconstruct the crime scene! Search for a weakness!! Were they all definitely dead? If one of them is just playing dead, this isn't a closed room at all!"



"Here it is, that 'Devil's Proof'. But there exists a sword that can carve that up...!"
"Wh-What's up with them? Looks like they're having a good time, leaving me out of the discussion. I'm his opponent, am I not...? Doesn't he have any time to spare for me...?"
"Fundamentally speaking, communication with one's opponent is not necessary to the act of competing in chess."
"...Every time you've communicated with him outside of making your moves, you've used that opportunity to confuse him. Perhaps this is the result of him not wanting to be led astray."
"...Nngg. For some reason, I don't like it."
"You are challenging him to a chess match, are you not?"
"That's true, but... gah!"

Beatrice puffed out her cheeks, as though to say 'I don't know why, but I don't like it!'

"Because the police have not yet arrived at the crime scene, the human side's ability to inspect the scene is limited. For a strict confirmation of death, I recommend that you have that child repeat it in red."
"Okay, that's where I'll strike, repetition requested!! 'The six victims are all dead'!!"
"...Milady, he has told you to repeat something in red, has he not?"
"Hey, enough lazing around!! Do you refuse to repeat it?! This is where our battle starts!!"
"Wha?! Owowowowoow!! *cackle*cackle* Sorry, sorry, that's fine, I'll answer."



BGM: Dread of the Grave -More Fear-

"Why are you so out of it?"
"...Okay. So I've already got one out of you. We'll start by denying that classic trick where the victims are playing dead."
"*cackle*! I won't go easy on you anymore! Come at me how you like. I'll slice them slantwise one after another!"
"Again, repetition requested! No one is hiding in any of the six rooms! Let's see you deny the existence of people we aren't aware of!"
"I'll answer. There is no one hiding in the six rooms!"
"Okay. Now I'm sure it's only the six of them in the can. And they aren't pretending to be dead."
"...What will you do, what will you dooo? As if a human could manage anything by now. Obediently kneel to the fact that I can control locks at will with my wonderful magic, okaaaaaay?"
"Quit babbling. And another repetition request. 'The six deaths were instant deaths'!"
"Instant deeeeeeaths? Hoh, what do you mean by that?"
"...It means there's a possibility that a single victim on the verge of death managed to escape into the room, and after locking it from the inside to create a closed room, they passed away."
"...Hmph. A classic closed room murder trick. One requiring that the victim receive a fatal wound... and then die later. It is possible for a closed room to be constructed unexpectedly if the victim holes up inside the room to escape the murderer... and then dies after locking the door."
"In order to deny that possibility, you will need to proclaim that 'The six died instantly' with the red truth."
"*cackle*cackle*! Very well, very well, I'll slay you with my red treasured sword!"



"Well, it might still have taken them several seconds or minutes to die in the complete sense of the word. But regardless, it was completely impossible for them to take any actions of their own will. In that sense, I can confirm that they suffered instant deaths!"
"...Up until this point, I've just been checking for the classic tricks. Now's when our showdown over the closed rooms really starts, okay...?"
"If the culprit isn't on the inside, they're on the outside. So they somehow killed from outside the rooms."
"*cackle*cackle*! Have you lost your mind? After all, 'a closed room = murder is impossible from the outside', right?! That's why only a magical murder would be possible!"
"No, that's wrong. The right approach is 'a murder really happened = it isn't a closed room'! No matter how much you try to trick me, this definitely isn't a closed room! It's a sham that only looks like one!"
"However, Battler-sama, only the victims are inside the rooms, and no other people exist inside the rooms. And by Milady's Closed Room Definition, remote murders from outside the room have been clearly denied, have they not?"
"Wait. The definition of remote murders is pretty broad, right?"
It's not just about pulling a fishing line from outside the room and strangling the victim inside the room."



"A traap? Hoh, and what might that be?!"
"Just as an example, let's say they were instructed to enter rooms that someone had picked out beforehand... and lock the doors from the inside to create the closed rooms themselves. A trap was set up in those rooms that they didn't know about... and that's what killed them. How's that?! That doesn't contradict anything!"
"...There are no problems. It corresponds to the existing state."
"...There are no problems on our side either. It does not conflict with Milady's Closed Room Definition."
"Kuhhahhahahahahahahahaha?! What's with that stupid reasoning?! Nothing suspicious was found in any of the rooms, right?"
"What form did that trap have?! Where was it hidden and how did it operate?! Explain that for all six of them...in the parlor, the guest room, the waiting room, the VIP room, the boiler room, and the chapel. Well? You can't, can you?!?!"
"I refuse to counter that!! There's no need for me to explain!! And failing to do so doesn't damage my claim!!"
"Wh-What did you saaaaaaaaayy...?!?!"



"...Well done. While overbearing, a wonderful move."
"...Nng!!! This guy's getting completely used to this...!!"
"Check. Due to murder trap X that we couldn't find, it'd be possible to establish this closed room murder."
"...I-I'll kill that check with the red truth!! The six were not killed by traps!"
"And the definition of a trap?!"
"Oh, umm... that's it! Something that activates when a victim triggers it on their own. Oh, and that's not all! It also includes things activated by remote control or by a timer, everything of that sort!"
"Pu ku ku... So, it refers to all arrangements that could carry out a murder without the direct participation of the one who planned it out. Perhaps we might sum it up that way."
"H-How's that?! I've struck back!! As if I'd let a human crush this closed room!!"



"...Whaat...?! What do you mean...?"
"...You're frantically fighting to make me accept your existence. Until now, I thought I was just being toyed around with by you one-sidedly."
"...But that's not actually true. You're also frantically resisting my counters, fighting to show that you exist...! Now, I finally really feel that it's true."

This isn't torture inflicted on me, over whether I'll surrender or not.



"...Okay, now it's starting to get interesting, isn't it? All six died in closed rooms, and no outsiders were inside. And there was no meddling from the outside, and also no traps. Up until now, I'd probably start suspecting that this had to be the work of magic."
"...And if you decided to show off some bizarre magic at this moment, I might even have surrendered. It's that favorite strategy of yours. You intercept all my moves, and in the moment I've exhausted all options and fallen to my knees, when my heart's barriers are at their weakest, you show off some strange magic and take the game all at once!!"
"...That short temper is something this child has always had, along with a bad habit of rushing things when victory is in sight."
"Pu ku ku. After all, Milady cannot stand putting off a match."
"Heeey, shut up, shut up!! It's Battler's turn, right?! I finished off that 'trap piece' you advanced! What should I repeat next? Show me what you've got!!"
"Right!! Now that even traps have been defeated, this looks like a perfect closed room murder at a glance. And that's why I'll spin the chessboard around right now!!"
"...Here it comes, that special technique of yours! How exactly are you going to spin what around?! Try showing meeeeeeeeeeee!!"
"Yeah, I'll show you!! I don't need to think of how six people could be killed inside closed rooms from the outside!"
"Aaah, that's no good, no good, no goddamn good at all! That's right, the question isn't how you can kill from outside the rooms. The point is how they died inside the rooms, making them closed rooms!"



"Wh-Whaaaaaaat?!"
"Ridiculous! I believe I clearly said in red that the six of them were dead...!!"
"Oh, there were six deaths. Five were victims who got killed. But if you assume that the other person committed suicide, you can destroy this closed room!!"
"...Certainly. If the culprit locked themselves in the final closed room... and threw away their own life, this closed room chain would be established."
"The suicide of the culprit. Normally, it would be an unthinkable move, but the argument that the unthinkable cannot exist... cannot be used. And he has no responsibility to demonstrate a motive. A truly powerful move, which can only be used in a chess match against a witch...!"
"...Well, one cannot be certain that there was no motive. For example, it has been announced that Kinzo only had a short time left to live. Perhaps he did not regret losing his short remaining life and used his own death to send a message. It might be possible to attach such a motive. Milady, it is our turn."
"I-Indeed! To think you'd trample even the dignity of the dead to create a culprit...! What a heartless, cold-blooded man...!"
"I'll set up the dead as the culprit. This worse than inhuman move... is one you used to attack Kanon-kun in the last game."
"...Even though the games are different, I'm taking a shot back at you with this move, as a tribute to Kanon-kun for that time."



"Nng... Gaaaaahhhh...!!"
"You have no responsibility to hold back here. You should try to confirm that suicide wasn't the cause of any of their deaths. I recommend that you have that child repeat it in red."
"Right!! But suicide's a naive word that won't corner her!! Beato, this'll stop you!!



"...That... is painful."
"Uguu...!! ...Nngg, ooohh...!"
"Hmmmm? What's wrong, all six of them were killed, right?! I'm just confirming that simple premise we've had from the very beginning, right? Can't you repeat it?!"
"Hmph... I refuse to repeat it. Th-There's no reason in particular."
"You realize that refusing to repeat this part is the same as resigning, right?!"
"Checkmate!! One of the six was the culprit, and they planned to commit suicide after constructing the closed room! That's all!!"



"How's that?! Are you satisfied...?! *cackle*cackle*, kakkakakakaka! I've struck back, I've struck back!!!"
"Tch, what the hell, so you can say it... But that's strange. Why are you so panicky...?"
"...I-I-It's your imagination. This time, even I'm feeling the pressure. That's right, I don't have any leeway. Pay it no mind..."
"...The line you asked that child to repeat has been altered. Do not be fooled."
"...Gaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhh..."
"Pu ku ku ku... It seems not to have worked, Milady."
"Th-That's right! She didn't say 'the six deaths were all homicides'. She changed it to 'none of the six committed suicide'! Which means one of them wasn't killed by someone else and didn't commit suicide."
"...Aaaaaaaahhh, I've got it, I've got it!! This is the truth!"





"...D-drat iiiit!! Did you think I'd be cornered by something like that?!! I'd never announce my resignation over something like that!!
I'll slice up that foolish checkmate with my red treasured sword over and over again!! None of the six died an accidental-"
"...Muga?! Mmmmnn, mmwt mwar muu mmnnmmng, mmmpphhh!"



"...It's a fair request. Perhaps you should accept it."
"Sure!! Take a break! I've been given those a lot lately. Now it's your turn to take one...!!"
"Thank you very much. Come, Milady, this way. And let us quietly count to one hundred inside our heads."
"Mmmmmmmphphh!! Mphphpmhmmmm, mmmppmmphhhh!! Mmmmmm!"

Ronove quickly covered Beato's mouth with his hand as she grew thoroughly panicked and agitated, suspending the game. He pulled Beato away, supposedly to hold a strategy conference...



BGM: None

Beato normally acted like she was graceful and above it all, but she actually had a really short temper and got mad easily. Her usual intellect had less of a voice when she got excited.

"Ronove certainly is thinking clearly. He probably gave your opponent some time to cool down. That child grew too stubborn trying to remove your check... and was about to easily let several large pieces go. After all, the first twilight is only a skirmish. The correct move at that time would have been to withdraw."
"...So, what does it mean? Did I reach checkmate, or didn't I?"
"That child was about to say something in red. You probably wouldn't have reached checkmate yet. But, most likely, you can expect our opponents to resign once they've cooled their heads."
"...You're joking. Even though she hates losing that much...?"
"Yes. In a losing battle, it is essential to withdraw your troops as soon as possible to try and minimize your losses. The difficult part is gauging whether it's a losing battle or not. Your opponent's butler seems to have calmly made that decision."
"...Oh well. In other words, she managed to escape by a hair's breadth. Getting checkmate and delivering the final blow won't be that easy for me."
"However, you should count this as your victory. It seems they barely managed to prevent a large loss, but they certainly sustained considerable damage. The scale of that child's panic ought to make the depths of that wound quite clear to you."
"Seriously. Ihihihi, it feels like she'd start crying if I bullied her any more."

As we talked, Ronove returned with Beato, who wore a meek expression. She didn't yet have her usual bold smile, but it looked like the blood wasn't rushing to her head anymore.

"...Hey. It's your turn. Did you decide on your next move?"



BGM: Mother

Beato told me that frankly. It seemed she'd taken a far-sighted view, as though saying 'If you want to laugh, then laugh'. It was a bit of a killjoy, and I lost my desire to deliver the final blow.

"Well, now that you've resigned, that just means we're even, since my theory and yours can't deny each other. You should treat it more like a tie than a loss."
"...I don't need your disgusting sympathy. I'm telling you that I lost this round. When you find a dog drenched with rain, do you have a sudden urge to whack it with a stick or something?"
"Nope. I'm not you."
"..."



I did feel that was pretty cowardly of her, but I decided to act with dignity as the victor and let it slide. Beato resigned. That's the one result of the first twilight. Beatrice couldn't counter my move of 'one of the six was the culprit, and that person died in an accident'.

...No, she probably could've countered it, but for some strategic reason, she admitted defeat. It felt less like I'd won... and more like I'd let her slip away at the last second...



Thanks to the 'Devil's Proof', I could create as many strange fictions as I wanted and use them as fighters in our argument. But that only works in a chess match with a witch. In our human world, you can't use such abstract theories to explain things. This first twilight was a chain of six closed rooms. It certainly may have been possible for a human. Beato wasn't able to deny all possibilities. However, I don't have a clue who committed the crime, or why, or how they actually did it...

It may seem strange to hear me saying this after I won... But for some reason, I felt like I'd have been more satisfied if Beatrice had been able to say definitively that it was impossible for humans.



Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012

So this appears to be this game's Pursuit~Cornered. Certainly gets the blood pumping. Though the effect isn't quite as pronounced when you haven't done anything to make this start playing.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Beatrice ruined my theory, but much more interestingly:

ProfessorProf posted:

"Uguu...!! ...Nngg, ooohh...!"

Has anyone other than Maria ever said this thus far?

tiistai
Nov 1, 2012

Solo Melodica

CottonWolf posted:

Beatrice ruined my theory, but much more interestingly:


Has anyone other than Maria ever said this thus far?

You can read into it if you want but Kinzo and Battler alike have cried out quite a few uu-uu's over the course of these games.

Also shame on you, thread, Battler got you beat this round :v:

SardonicTyrant
Feb 26, 2016

BTICH IM A NEWT
熱くなれ夢みた明日を
必ずいつかつかまえる
走り出せ振り向くことなく
&



tiistai posted:

You can read into it if you want but Kinzo and Battler alike have cried out quite a few uu-uu's over the course of these games.

Also shame on you, thread, Battler got you beat this round :v:
Look, Battler is incompetent, but we are goons. We can only do so much.

Quinn2win
Nov 9, 2011

Foolish child of man...
After reading all this,
do you still not understand?

tiistai posted:

Also shame on you, thread, Battler got you beat this round :v:

TCL actually suggested something like Battler's theory earlier, with Kinzo accidentally setting himself on fire after setting up the final closed room.

Anyway, clean crime diagrams for this mystery:



CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

tiistai posted:

You can read into it if you want but Kinzo and Battler alike have cried out quite a few uu-uu's over the course of these games.

Also shame on you, thread, Battler got you beat this round :v:

It's probably just a writing quirk then. It's just the first time I'd spotted it.

SystemLogoff
Feb 19, 2011

End Session?

The wording was strange there.

None of the six vs all of their names being used.

I'm thinking one or more of those bodies are not the corpse they are supposed to be.

Also, where the butler cut her off, that would be a huge loss for Battler to see that.

:colbert:

Quinn2win
Nov 9, 2011

Foolish child of man...
After reading all this,
do you still not understand?

SystemLogoff posted:

Also, where the butler cut her off, that would be a huge loss for Battler to see that.

:colbert:

As an exercise for those who are still in the mood to pick fights with witches: If you were in Battler's position, and Beatrice had successfully said "None of the six died in an accident" in red, what would you next move have been?

EagerSleeper
Feb 3, 2010

by R. Guyovich

ProfessorProf posted:

As an exercise for those who are still in the mood to pick fights with witches: If you were in Battler's position, and Beatrice had successfully said "None of the six died in an accident" in red, what would you next move have been?

The next step would be "define accident," because I would like to know whether they died from a self-inflicted accident like slipping on a banana peel, or an accident of being killed by others.


Beatrice is really nervous this game. She's desperate.

Qrr
Aug 14, 2015


Alas, poor delayed death theory. You could have been the answer.

ProfessorProf posted:

As an exercise for those who are still in the mood to pick fights with witches: If you were in Battler's position, and Beatrice had successfully said "None of the six died in an accident" in red, what would you next move have been?

Hmm, that would have been tough and yeah, we'd need to see a definition of accident.

We know in red that none of them committed suicide. And we infer that not all of them died by homicide because Beatrice wasn't willing to say that in red, though as always there's the possibility that she's playing a deeper game - just because she doesn't say something in red doesn't mean it's false, and just because she acts flustered when Battler pushes doesn't mean he's actually getting anywhere. But it's the only thing we really have to go on.

So if someone died and it wasn't suicide and it wasn't homicide... then that would mean it wasn't intentionally caused by a human. If it also wasn't an accident, then it wasn't unintentionally caused by a human.

What if the boiler was off and Kinzo was in it (alive) for some reason and then it turned on? Would that count as an accident? Can the boiler even turn off? Kinzo is definitely the odd one out here, though that would raise the question of how he planned to leave the room since it was locked and he didn't have a key.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Or the old favourite, "heart attack".

witchcore ricepunk
Jul 6, 2003

The Golden Witch
Who Solved the Epitaph


A Probability of 1/2,578,917

ProfessorProf posted:

TCL actually suggested something like Battler's theory earlier, with Kinzo accidentally setting himself on fire after setting up the final closed room.

YEAH, tiistai! Suck it. :v:

But yeah, the fact that Beatrice got cut off as she was going to disprove Battler's accident theory worries me. So if it's not an accident, murder, trap-induced death, or suicide in one of the deaths... how did that person die? To explore the deaths along different axes, maybe it's worth thinking about when and where they could have died? I still think the burnt corpse is suspicious, even though its identity has been confirmed. Could it have been torched to impede an accurate read on when Kinzo died? No one but the servants allegedly saw Kinzo that day; even then, we can assume that scene, with the lightsabers, death grips, and spontaneous combustion, is fantasy.

So if I were Battler, I'd counter Beatrice's interrupted red truth with, "Kinzo died before the first twilight!" Unfortunately, contorting the rationale to fit into the maze of red truths just opens up more questions—namely, who did it, if not one of the victims? How could the closed room ouroboros work, then? We're trapped on both sides! Ughh, it's useless!

witchcore ricepunk fucked around with this message at 19:56 on Dec 18, 2016

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug
Or she was about to lie and Ronove stopped her so she wouldn't gently caress up the redtext.

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Amidiri
Apr 26, 2010

Tender Child Loins posted:

YEAH, tiistai! Suck it. :v:

But yeah, the fact that Beatrice got cut off as she was going to disprove Battler's accident theory worries me. So if it's not an accident, murder, trap-induced death, or suicide in one of the deaths... how did that person die?

Kinzo killed everyone else, died of natural causes, and fell into the boiler which then turned on and/or had always been on and got roasted, making it look like a murder!!

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