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Votecount for Day 3 this is a stickup (6): Byers2142, this is a stickup, i am the bird, Tobbs Gnawed, Absurd Revolver, Podima Not Voting (4): Atomic Soda, King Burgundy, Li Dawny, Murmur TwinWith 10 alive, it's 6 votes to execute. The current deadline is January 06th, 2017 at 10 p.m. EST -- that's in about 2 days, 12 hours.
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Jan 4, 2017 15:36
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| # ? Apr 25, 2024 08:29 |
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this is a stickup has been executed, he was Vanilla Townie. Night 3!
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Jan 4, 2017 15:36
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Nobody died. Again. Day 4 begins!
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Jan 5, 2017 02:48
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what is even going on with scum
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Jan 5, 2017 02:49
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Tobbs went nowhere D&D time Bye
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Jan 5, 2017 02:49
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Weird. I got back after the hammer and thought the game was won until the flip. So there are four VTs (me, KB, AR, Tobbs), four confirmed townies with PRs (Dawny, AS, Byers, bird), and scum Podima who is more or less vanilla. I would propose: - we lynch a VT. For the sake of argument, let's say it's me and I flip town. - our two trackers track two VTs. For the sake of argument, let's say Tobbs and KB - bird withholds. - if there is a kill, either a tracker sees it, or we can deduce that the last VT (let's say AR) did it. - if there isn't a kill, we just repeat the process That's more or less an auto-win for town, correct?
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Jan 5, 2017 02:58
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Murmur Twin posted:Weird. I got back after the hammer and thought the game was won until the flip. mafia edit
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Jan 5, 2017 03:05
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We, in theory, have two more lynches before we lose.
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Jan 5, 2017 03:29
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Yeah, there is no way for us to lose at this point. I will say that I agree with Tobbs that we should be removing Pod from the equation before we proceed though. I've been in games where cult leader is passed to a cult member after death. Normally it doesn't activate right away, but still not worth the risk when the game is ours to win.
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Jan 5, 2017 03:30
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I agree. ##vote Podima
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Jan 5, 2017 03:33
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Also, Byers is just owning the scum with his docs, in which case we can clear a bunch of people(MMT yesterday, Tobbs + ? today), or scum is withholding in which case no one is clear. It doesn't really make sense for scum to withhold since that pretty much ensures their loss, but who knows.
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Jan 5, 2017 03:33
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Since I currently don't have much better stuff to do, I'd propose: Day: everyone votes me Night: LD tracks AR, AS tracks Tobbs, Byers protects LD, bird busdrives AS and KB. There's no way scum can kill anyone without being outed. Even if they do, neither tracker can die so they'll be around to share results. If they choose not to kill someone, everyone votes out KB. Trackers track the same targets, bird and byers trade LD and AS for targets. That plan ignores the existence of Podima - you guys can figure that out  But in my head I think the game is solved if we do that.
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Jan 5, 2017 03:33
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King Burgundy posted:Yeah, there is no way for us to lose at this point. This is a good point, I agree. Should I vote Pod now or do people want to talk more?
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Jan 5, 2017 03:34
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Consider my vote on Pod, but holding off for now so everyone gets a chance to talk(I'm bummed I didn't get to post last day phase).
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Jan 5, 2017 03:35
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Wanna hear from soda. Still wanna lynch pod to make extra super sure he doesn't flip as cult recruiter. If he does well then.
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Jan 5, 2017 03:39
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If Podima writes a poem about how town he thinks I am, I'm willing to make a passionate argument for keeping him around 
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Jan 5, 2017 03:43
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Murmur Twin posted:If Podima writes a poem about how town he thinks I am, I'm willing to make a passionate argument for keeping him around This is acceptable, provided you still vote for him.
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Jan 5, 2017 03:45
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i am the bird posted:We, in theory, have two more lynches before we lose. Wait, what? King Burgundy posted:Also, Byers is just owning the scum with his docs, in which case we can clear a bunch of people(MMT yesterday, Tobbs + ? today), or scum is withholding in which case no one is clear. It doesn't really make sense for scum to withhold since that pretty much ensures their loss, but who knows. I protected LD last night, but I feel like that scum had to have withheld one of the two nights; the only other possibility is that I've gotten two protects in a row, and (especially last night's "which tracker?" protection) I don't see that happening. If I did get it right two nights in a row, though, that tells us the last scum (MT and Tobbs were tracked, and we have AS's target still). Tobbs Gnawed posted:Wanna hear from soda. Still wanna lynch pod to make extra super sure he doesn't flip as cult recruiter. If he does well then. I'd be ok with that, now that we've dodged another NK, but if he's able to recruit holy poo poo, FL, that's a crazy setup in a two scum team, 13 player game.
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Jan 5, 2017 03:46
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Murmur Twin posted:Since I currently don't have much better stuff to do, I'd propose: Hmmm, I think something like that definitely works. I mean, a tracker can still die if the scum targets me(AS), but it would either be seen or process of elimination would take care of who the scum was. I do think planning out the night actions can secure the victory earlier, but we would probably just get there on our own at this point regardless. After voting Pod we'd be at 8 players, 4 confirmed, 1 scum, 3 VT. If someone dies, we go to 7 players, 3 confirmed, 1 scum, 3 VT but chances are high people are cleared or caught. If no one dies, I think we win by default after another cuddle?
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Jan 5, 2017 03:48
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Murmur Twin posted:Weird. I got back after the hammer and thought the game was won until the flip. Pretty much, yeah. Scum needs to kill to win, which is why withholding makes little sense to me.
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Jan 5, 2017 03:48
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Murmur Twin posted:Since I currently don't have much better stuff to do, I'd propose: If we do this, flip AS and LD.
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Jan 5, 2017 03:49
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Byers2142 posted:Wait, what? Yeah, I can't make sense of that either. Only way that could be true is if Pod became a cult recruiter and recruited someone?
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Jan 5, 2017 03:50
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King Burgundy posted:Yeah, I can't make sense of that either. Only way that could be true is if Pod became a cult recruiter and recruited someone? Maybe? But I still see that as a low possibility, because that's a shitshow of a mechanic in a smaller game with multiple scum teams.
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Jan 5, 2017 03:51
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Byers2142 posted:If we do this, flip AS and LD. Flip as in I protect AS, obviously, not kill them for their flips.
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Jan 5, 2017 03:52
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I meant three not two. As in, it's basically impossible to lose if we assume Pod isn't recruiting, because 2 nights of action and 2 more VT lynches means the third lynch is a slam dunk.
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Jan 5, 2017 03:53
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Byers2142 posted:If we do this, flip AS and LD. Oh, wait. I just realized that plan doesn't work if we lynch Pod instead of me. I really really doubt that Pod could be a recruiter (just based on his willingness to concede if stickup was scum) so I personally think killing a VT is the play. That's something we can talk about while we wait for people to check in.
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Jan 5, 2017 03:54
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Jan 5, 2017 03:55
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Murmur Twin posted:Oh, wait. I just realized that plan doesn't work if we lynch Pod instead of me. It still works fine tomorrow, after we cuddle Pod and make sure we aren't dealing with another recruiter.
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Jan 5, 2017 03:56
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i am the bird posted:I meant three not two. As in, it's basically impossible to lose if we assume Pod isn't recruiting, because 2 nights of action and 2 more VT lynches means the third lynch is a slam dunk. Ok, yeah, that makes more sense. You know, this would be much easier and much less of a waste of our time going through the motions if scum would just claim. At this point, if Pod is somehow a recruiter cult can still win, but that lone Scum Goon? Game over, man, game over. Plus, as yuming always told me, think of how much freer you'll feel by opening up to the thread! All that stress of trying to deal with lying, being scum, it will al just melt away! 
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Jan 5, 2017 03:57
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Murmur Twin posted:Oh, wait. I just realized that plan doesn't work if we lynch Pod instead of me. See, this is what I'd rather do, because in my eyes it's a low-risk move. I've seen cult recruiter pass on, true, but never in a game with a set-up anything like this. Personally, I say we hear what AS did and lynch whomever hasn't been tracked yet, KB or AR.
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Jan 5, 2017 03:58
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Byers2142 posted:See, this is what I'd rather do, because in my eyes it's a low-risk move. The lowest risk move is purging Pod first, to make sure. Especially given I don't see, mathematically, how scum can possibly win if we do that. No matter what we are going to get through all the VTs before end game and catch the last scum. If we do a variant on the plan, we'll even have the last scum narrowed to one of two people going into tomorrow if someone dies.
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Jan 5, 2017 04:02
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King Burgundy posted:It still works fine tomorrow, after we cuddle Pod and make sure we aren't dealing with another recruiter. My objection to killing Pod is that there is the tiniest of openings if there are 4 VT going into the night. If there's a kill and AR/LD didn't do it, then it could have been either me/KB, and whoever the scum is could kill Byers or bird. I mean it's still like 99% a lock for town but I want to shoot for 100%.
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Jan 5, 2017 04:03
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King Burgundy posted:The lowest risk move is purging Pod first, to make sure. Especially given I don't see, mathematically, how scum can possibly win if we do that. No matter what we are going to get through all the VTs before end game and catch the last scum. KB, are you scum? If you are, you can tell me privately in a spoiler, I promise not to tell!
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Jan 5, 2017 04:04
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Murmur Twin posted:My objection to killing Pod is that there is the tiniest of openings if there are 4 VT going into the night. If there's a kill and AR/LD didn't do it, then it could have been either me/KB, and whoever the scum is could kill Byers or bird. Do the math though, how does scum win from there? Bottom line is we'd still be starting the day with 3 confirmed town, 2 VTs who are cleared, and 2 VTs who are not. So worst case two days later they are dead if we miss the first time. We win at 5 players. If we don't do Pod now, and find out later he's a recruiter, it's game over and cult wins. In either scenario, scum loses. Not sure why people want to even take the risk.
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Jan 5, 2017 04:06
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Byers2142 posted:KB, are you scum? If you are, you can tell me privately in a spoiler, I promise not to tell! I'm town. But don't tell anyone.
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Jan 5, 2017 04:07
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King Burgundy posted:Do the math though, how does scum win from there? Bottom line is we'd still be starting the day with 3 confirmed town, 2 VTs who are cleared, and 2 VTs who are not. So worst case two days later they are dead if we miss the first time. We win at 5 players. Ok, let's run the scenario. We lynch Pod, and he flips something like
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Jan 5, 2017 04:10
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Byers2142 posted:Ok, let's run the scenario. We lynch Pod, and he flips something like No, we'd still need to focus on the scum at that point since we wouldn't know who he had recruited(if he even had yet). Let the final scum hunt the last cult until we kill them. Part of the reason to do Pod sooner rather than later is to catch him before recruitment if he's on a timer. (I really wish I had been around to argue this during the few hours the thread was open last day for this reason)
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Jan 5, 2017 04:13
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Basically, scum loses no matter what at this point. Killing Pod first helps make sure it's town that wins, not Cult, in case that is an issue.
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Jan 5, 2017 04:14
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Murmur Twin posted:Oh, wait. I just realized that plan doesn't work if we lynch Pod instead of me. Yeah, his willingness to give up makes it highly, highly doubtful. I honestly expected the game to end because stickup said he was scum with 0% chance of winning and so wanted the game to be over. Frankly, scum could win if every VT did that, so please don't.
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Jan 5, 2017 04:14
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| # ? Apr 25, 2024 08:29 |
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King Burgundy posted:Do the math though, how does scum win from there? Bottom line is we'd still be starting the day with 3 confirmed town, 2 VTs who are cleared, and 2 VTs who are not. So worst case two days later they are dead if we miss the first time. We win at 5 players. I was in the middle of typing out the only scenario where scum could get out of the hardlock. They'd have to kill one of (byers/bird) and not get tracked, and then kill one of the trackers the next night that goes unprotected... ...but then I factored in that we can also systematically vote out the VTs in addition to night phases and yeah, I think it's still a lock. My personal vote is to kill off a VT. Am I wrong in saying that if "cult recruiter" were to pass down, then even with perfect information town could never kill the cult? There would already be 2 cult members (Pod and whoever he recruited last night) and they'll have 4 confirmed town targets to recruit even if we kill one every night. There's no way FL would make that a thing, and even if he did I can't imagine that Pod would have openly offered to concede if he was still in the game.
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Jan 5, 2017 04:15
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