MiddleOne posted:The recession that will follow when people default on their mortgages and lots of people in the FIRE and government sector get laid off. I doubt there would be huge consequences because ARM are probably not selling that well at the moment (and anyone selling them might get sued for selling them once interest rates pick up). The issue is more that Belgium, Italy, France and Spain might get into big trouble refinancing their debt at acceptable rates.
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Mar 30, 2017 13:13
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Gee I wonder why European leaders might have been uncomfortable with Turkish political rallies in their countries. https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/847481873194287104
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Mar 30, 2017 17:15
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Sinteres posted:Gee I wonder why European leaders might have been uncomfortable with Turkish political rallies in their countries. Are turks usually politically stabby ? It may be completely unrelated
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Mar 30, 2017 17:20
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 At least Goethe and Schiller still believe in a Pan-European identity.
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Mar 30, 2017 18:13
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unpacked robinhood posted:Are turks usually politically stabby ? It may be completely unrelated Whipping up hatred of Kurds to win votes is kind of Erdogan's thing, and early reports are suggesting they were attacked by AKP supporters. Anything's possible though.
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Mar 30, 2017 18:26
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Honj Steak posted:At least Goethe and Schiller still believe in a Pan-European identity.
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Mar 30, 2017 18:34
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unpacked robinhood posted:Are turks usually politically stabby ? It may be completely unrelated From what the news here in Belgium reported, some Kurds came to vote and spotted an Erdogan supporter putting up pro-Erdogan posters at the embassy. This led to an argument, which led to someone getting out their knife and stabbing a woman in the throat.
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Mar 30, 2017 21:36
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Unrelated question to Francepol posters here: Why the heck did Mitterrand refuse to apologize for Vichy?
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Mar 30, 2017 21:40
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icantfindaname posted:Unrelated question to Francepol posters here: Why the heck did Mitterrand refuse to apologize for Vichy? If you assume responsibility for the Vichy regime's crimes, then you recognize the Vichy regime as having been your legitimate predecessor.
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Mar 30, 2017 21:47
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at some point this is gonna stop being funny https://twitter.com/MarianneleMag/status/847512764486635520
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Mar 30, 2017 22:05
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ElNarez posted:at some point this is gonna stop being funny As Monsieur Bison says, "yes, yes" Wauquiez is the guy who railed against the cancer de l'assistanat so I am not at all surprised that he embezzled public money.
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Mar 30, 2017 22:22
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nimby posted:This led to an argument, which led to someone getting out their knife and stabbing a woman in the throat. Ah yes of course, well I guess it will help or not help erdogan get more votes, who loving knows
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Mar 30, 2017 22:35
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A Buttery Pastry posted:Two Germans, eh? I suppose wanting dominion over all of Europe is a sort of identity too. you're just jealous we called dibs first 
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Mar 30, 2017 23:14
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ElNarez posted:at some point this is gonna stop being funny I hope it happens to Eric Ciotti next.
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Mar 31, 2017 00:31
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sheep-dodger posted:you're just jealous we called dibs first
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Mar 31, 2017 05:36
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Tingfinder posted:https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/28/world/europe/scotland-britain-brexit-european-union.html Every single Scot I know also wants out. But the thing is, staying with Britain kept them in the EU, kept everything simple, wasn't a risk to the economy... and then this.
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Mar 31, 2017 07:19
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icantfindaname posted:Unrelated question to Francepol posters here: Why the heck did Mitterrand refuse to apologize for Vichy? CM is obviously right, but Mimi's track record with the far-right before (and quite honestly, during) the occupation, friendship with avowed Shoah accomplices & still-dubious resistance involvement makes his particular refusal to apologise particularly significative. e: ElNarez posted:at some point this is gonna stop being funny The next LR primary will take place in jail at this rate 
lost in postation fucked around with this message at 08:48 on Mar 31, 2017 |
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Mar 31, 2017 08:41
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Eric Woerth or Brice Hortefeux would also own
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Mar 31, 2017 09:10
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quote:The EU has outlined its strategy for Brexit negotiations, suggesting talks on a trade deal could begin once "sufficient progress" is made on a separation settlement with the UK. Intersting deviation from Merkel's comments earlier this week.
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Mar 31, 2017 09:19
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Pissflaps posted:Intersting deviation from Merkel's comments earlier this week. It's actually not, the phased approach is exactly what all EU politicians have said they want with Britain first having to agree on the principles of the separation settlement, before trade talks can start.
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Mar 31, 2017 09:43
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I think someone posted an article here about Wauquiez using a trip to China to raise money for the Fillon campaign. It was on a trip paid by his region counsel and now they are concerned that doing so he used regional money to stealth finance his candidate campaign, which is kinda a big "no no". Fucker may lose his regional presidency because of Fillon, it's hilarious.
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Mar 31, 2017 09:46
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GaussianCopula posted:It's actually not, the phased approach is exactly what all EU politicians have said they want with Britain first having to agree on the principles of the separation settlement, before trade talks can start. After all the rhetoric we're swiftly moving towards a future uk/eu trade deal being negotiated in parallel with exit terms being agreed. This is a good thing for everybody.
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Mar 31, 2017 10:10
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endlessmonotony posted:Every single Scot I know also wants out. Most Scots on these forums wanted out the last time, too. Most British people you know probably wanted to Remain. 'People you know' isn't a representative demographic as a rule.
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Mar 31, 2017 10:15
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Full text on the EU's negotiating principles available here: http://www.politico.eu/wp-content/u...c205e-189779173 Some quick analysis from Politico: quote:Council response puts Brexit talks on collision course
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Mar 31, 2017 10:21
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So basically if the UK agrees to whatever the EU wants, they get to talk about ways to not be completely hosed post-Brexit. Truly Britannia holds all the cards here.
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Mar 31, 2017 10:30
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It's definitely in the EU's interest to make the divorce as painful as possible, to set an example for anyone else who might get funny ideas about leaving.
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Mar 31, 2017 10:41
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I don't believe that's the eu's plan but if it is then the EU is utterly hosed.
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Mar 31, 2017 10:43
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Cerebral Bore posted:So basically if the UK agrees to whatever the EU wants, they get to talk about ways to not be completely hosed post-Brexit. Truly Britannia holds all the cards here.
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Mar 31, 2017 10:47
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Flayer posted:Well that's the starting negotiating position, you have to go in strong. It is a tricky position for the EU because the UK is a big enough economy that destabilising it too much will cause problems for many EU member states. A weak pound will also strengthen the UK export market considerably and give the UK a much stronger hand in negotiating trade deals with individual EU nations that would have a further weakening effect on the unity of the EU. The EU is such a big beast that you have to be really careful with how you guide it because adjusting the course could take decades so going down the wrong path could have catastrophic results. Broadly agree with you but the UK can't make trade deals with individual EU member states - membership of the EU forbids it.
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Mar 31, 2017 10:52
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Collateral Damage posted:It's definitely in the EU's interest to make the divorce as painful as possible, to set an example for anyone else who might get funny ideas about leaving. No, it isn't. The EU, naturally, needs to make sure that the UK does not have the same shape and size of deal as it would when they were members. If they were to achieve that, then the next out the door would (probably) be the Polish and the Hungarians, followed by the Italians depending on the elections. However, there is no need to antagonise/destroy/do real harm to the future EU-UK relationship - in terms of trade, security and hundreds of years of history, the UK is a vital partner to the EU and will remain so. That is pretty clearly spelled out in the document. What will end up hurting the UK is that it is simply physically impossible to do a full-scale trade deal + the leaving procedures in the allotted 2 year time scale, of which only 15-18 months are effectively usable due to the length of time it would take for the EU and UK parliaments to go through their voting procedures. Therefore, some sort of transitionary mechanism will need to be installed in early 2019 to avoid the 'cliff edge' situation. All that will happen but the devil is, naturally, in the details. And those details matter an extraordinary amount if you're talking border inspections, sudden tariff impositions and loss of passporting rights for the UK financial sector. Millions of little lines of regulations and contracts will need to be redone and rewritten by thousands of experts, and all the while they're tinkering with the machine, it needs to keep running smoothly. When that machine stops running smoothly, it will be an ouchie for the EU, but somewhere between a broken leg and cardiac arrest for the UK. It's not a matter of wanting to punish (because that's not on the table), it's that the natural process of Brexit will inevitably lead to mild-to-extreme damage, which will be poorly explained by pundits as 'punishment'. Pissflaps posted:Broadly agree with you but the UK can't make trade deals with individual EU member states - membership of the EU forbids it. Nor can the UK make formal trade deals with 3rd countries. For the whole of the Brexit timetable the UK still formally falls under the agreement that the European Commission is the only and single competent authorities for trade deal for the whole EU28. They have probably already started informal discussions with 3rd countries, but can't formally do anything for the next 2 years without pissing off the EU27 and the EU institutions. Who are, and will be for the foreseeable future, the biggest trading partner of the EU. Therefore the UK can't afford to piss them off at this stage. Also, Liam Fox is intellectually incapable of leading an international trade delegation and understanding the fine point of trade negotiations. Believe me, I've sat next to him at dinner and there's not much going on upstairs there. Finally, you have to remember that because the EC has been the only authority with the legal competence to do trade deals for the last decades, the UK simply does not have the thousands of staff required to embark on ambitious 3rd country trade deals. Any that there were or are have been employed by, or seconded to, the EC for ages now. The May government will need to train hundreds of experts in these things, and that can take up to 15-20 years until you're at the right level (never mind the infighting, backbiting and other insanity now going on inside the UK gov't where many are now perfectly, delusionally, content to fall pack on WTO rules). Junior G-man fucked around with this message at 11:06 on Mar 31, 2017 |
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Mar 31, 2017 10:57
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Flayer posted:Well that's the starting negotiating position, you have to go in strong. It is a tricky position for the EU because the UK is a big enough economy that destabilising it too much will cause problems for many EU member states. A weak pound will also strengthen the UK export market considerably and give the UK a much stronger hand in negotiating trade deals with individual EU nations that would have a further weakening effect on the unity of the EU. The EU is such a big beast that you have to be really careful with how you guide it because adjusting the course could take decades so going down the wrong path could have catastrophic results. Individual EU nations cannot legally negotiate trade deals with the UK. Otherwise I agree that it would be a bad idea for the EU to actively try to screw over the UK in the negotiations, both because several member states (Ireland most of all) would be badly hurt if they did, and also because the UK is not suddenly going to drift off into the Atlantic so we're condemned to dealing with them for the foreseeable future. Besides, there is no real need to try and screw over the UK in the negotiations when you can trust the May government to do a fine enough job of it on their own. More pertinently, what Junior G-man said above.
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Mar 31, 2017 10:59
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They might not want to "punish" the U.K. but this is a historic first and the idea that EU will play anything but hardball here is naiv. This will set the precedent for all future leavers, if the outcome is anything but a clear loss in privileges and advantages for the U.K. it would be terribly damaging for the future of the EU.
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Mar 31, 2017 11:20
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If full EU membership is the ideal then surely anything less than that - which is guaranteed at this point - is loss enough without applying additional punitive action?
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Mar 31, 2017 11:21
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Flayer posted:Well that's the starting negotiating position, you have to go in strong. It is a tricky position for the EU because the UK is a big enough economy that destabilising it too much will cause problems for many EU member states. A weak pound will also strengthen the UK export market considerably and give the UK a much stronger hand in negotiating trade deals with individual EU nations that would have a further weakening effect on the unity of the EU. The EU is such a big beast that you have to be really careful with how you guide it because adjusting the course could take decades so going down the wrong path could have catastrophic results. It's not necessarily about screwing the UK over, it's just that the EU is holding all the cards and is going to get the best deal for itself with british wishes being entirely secondary. In fact, the EU might even end up saving the brits from themselves by forcing a soft Brexit, but then again that possibility relies on the Tories getting their heads out of their arses which seems unlikely.
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Mar 31, 2017 11:22
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Pissflaps posted:If full EU membership is the ideal then surely anything less than that - which is guaranteed at this point - is loss enough without applying additional punitive action? Well, what is a punitive action anyway? If the EU says "nah, we can't give you a trade deal on (financial) services without you accepting freedom of movement and the supremacy of the ECJ, sorry old boy" is that a punitive action or just the EU sticking to the principles they laid out before the Brexit vote even passed? I highly doubt the EU will demand that London will have to be destructed, the earth salted and rebuild 20km inland, but hey, so yeah.
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Mar 31, 2017 11:32
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GaussianCopula posted:I highly doubt the EU will demand that London will have to be destructed, the earth salted and rebuild 20km inland, but hey, so yeah. At least the housing would get cheaper
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Mar 31, 2017 11:34
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e X posted:They might not want to "punish" the U.K. but this is a historic first and the idea that EU will play anything but hardball here is naiv. You really have to stop using words like 'punish', 'hardball' etc. You pre-determine outcomes with that, and especially it allows you to create a universe where one side is 'good' or 'bad' or 'winning' or 'losing'. At the end of the day, as the end of the Politico article I posted said, there are no winners here. Everybody is now a hostage of having to play their pre-determined role in the upcoming drama (and/or farce). If you view it like that, then that mindset will help you interpret things in the next two years a lot more clearly rather than if you think in oppositional terms or some kind of mercantilist attitude to trade deals. As Cerebral Bore said, this isn't about screwing anyone over, it's about the fact that the EU27 are in an infinitely stronger starting position and will remain there unless the UK cleverly manages to fracture the bloc, which I have my doubts they will given that all Boris Johnson can do is insult people, Liam Fox is too dumb and David Davies looks like he's about to die from exhaustion. The EU cannot, will not and should not give the UK everything they ask for but a 'close partnership' arrangement will be found, but the advantages will go to the EU27 and the UK will simply be worse off. That, therefore, is the almost-predictable outcome of these negotiations, which is why you need to stop using words like 'punishment' etc. - such terminology will create (for yourself and others) an oppositional relationship that does not (yet) exist between the EU and the UK. There are simply facts of life which the UK should stop ignoring, but they cannot do that due to their internal political problems. Junior G-man fucked around with this message at 11:45 on Mar 31, 2017 |
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Mar 31, 2017 11:38
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Junior G-man posted:As Cerebral Bore said, this isn't about screwing anyone over, it's about the fact that the EU27 are in an infinitely stronger starting position and will remain there unless the UK cleverly manages to fracture the bloc, which I have my doubts they will given that all Boris Johnson can do is insult people, Liam Fox is too dumb and David Davies looks like he's about to die from exhaustion. The EU cannot, will not and should not give the UK everything they ask for but a 'close partnership' arrangement will be found, but the advantages will go to the EU27 and the UK will simply be worse off. 
Toplowtech fucked around with this message at 11:58 on Mar 31, 2017 |
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Mar 31, 2017 11:54
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Just checking and rewriting the tens of thousands of EU regulations into Britain's own post-EU regulatory system will take many years and will seriously impede government and bureaucracy. Tusk is right in saying that there's no need for punishment, Brexit itself is a punishment without additional political action.
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Mar 31, 2017 12:05
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Honj Steak posted:Just checking and rewriting the tens of thousands of EU regulations into Britain's own post-EU regulatory system will take many years and will seriously impede government and bureaucracy. Tusk is right in saying that there's no need for punishment, Brexit itself is a punishment without additional political action. It's going to be even more ridiculous to re-harmonize everything again once they are ready to rejoin in 20 years or so.
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Mar 31, 2017 12:13
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