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sebmojo
Oct 23, 2010


Legit Cyberpunk









I just want to write abstract haiku about falling leaves and the impermanence of human existence!

I think accusers are the ones we should fear and distrust, particularly accusers who post before me.

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QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Thranguy posted:

Yeah joining bandwagons seems more suspicious than starting them ##vote Tyrannosaurus

Is it a bandwagon if there are only two people involved?

b-minus1
Jul 24, 2008

She's a maniac, maniac
on the floor
And she's dancing like she's never danced before
Hi everyone. It's time to kill scum and chew bubblegum. And I'm all out of gum.

QuoProQuid posted:

Is it a bandwagon if there are only two people involved?

I would say no.

Sitting Here
Dec 31, 2007
I like how we all go straight for the accusin' and no one even RPs going to check on the lovecraftian hellscape outside

Thranguy
Apr 21, 2010


Deceitful and black-hearted, perhaps we are. But we would never go against the Code. Well, perhaps for good reasons. But mostly never.

Sitting Here posted:

I like how we all go straight for the accusin' and no one even RPs going to check on the lovecraftian hellscape outside

You've seen one lovecraftian hellscape, you've seen 'em all.

Also you're probably gibberingly insane.

sebmojo
Oct 23, 2010


Legit Cyberpunk









Sitting Here posted:

I like how we all go straight for the accusin' and no one even RPs going to check on the lovecraftian hellscape outside

curiosity, eh, that sounds like something a KILLER would have

sebmojo
Oct 23, 2010


Legit Cyberpunk









twitches curtain cord
outside a howling wasteland
creativity

Exmond
May 31, 2007

Writing is fun!

sebmojo posted:

twitches curtain cord
outside a howling wasteland
creativity


Note how sebmojo has done NOTHING about the accusations of corruption against him.

Only a slimly politician would be so devious to mount such a defence.

Sitting Here
Dec 31, 2007

Thranguy posted:

You've seen one lovecraftian hellscape, you've seen 'em all.

Also you're probably gibberingly insane.


sebmojo posted:

curiosity, eh, that sounds like something a KILLER would have

void monsters from the howling beyond detected

Sitting Here
Dec 31, 2007
my suggestion is that we all work together to find a way out of this crazy situation actually

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Sitting Here posted:

my suggestion is that we all work together to find a way out of this crazy situation actually

no

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

but for realsies, sittinghere is scum

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

that's not an insult directed at sittinghere. it's just slang for a member of the mafia

SurreptitiousMuffin
Mar 21, 2010
I feel like "ironically" trying to start a bandwagon is either 1) a person who doesn't realise they're actively aiding the scum or 2) scum trying to double their income in a way that's plausibly denial

Either way can we cut that poo poo out?

Sitting Here
Dec 31, 2007

SurreptitiousMuffin posted:

I feel like "ironically" trying to start a bandwagon is either 1) a person who doesn't realise they're actively aiding the scum or 2) scum trying to double their income in a way that's plausibly denial

Either way can we cut that poo poo out?

he accused me so i accused him back :smith:

i just want to make it through this man, idk

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

SurreptitiousMuffin posted:

I feel like "ironically" trying to start a bandwagon is either 1) a person who doesn't realise they're actively aiding the scum or 2) scum trying to double their income in a way that's plausibly denial

Either way can we cut that poo poo out?

How are we meant to discuss things if no one is willing to land a vote on anyone else? The day ends in 24 hours.

SurreptitiousMuffin
Mar 21, 2010
Standard mafia practice: first day is a no-vote. Random voting (ESPECIALLY in early stages) has an extremely high chance of hitting the town. You need to build up a profile.

Sitting Here
Dec 31, 2007
we could do icebreaker games? or we could talk about how we're in a LOVECRAFTIAN HELLSCAPE and voidbeasts are possibly even now gnawing their way through decent, proper reality to feast on our orgones

Exmond
May 31, 2007

Writing is fun!

Sitting Here posted:

we could do icebreaker games? or we could talk about how we're in a LOVECRAFTIAN HELLSCAPE and voidbeasts are possibly even now gnawing their way through decent, proper reality to feast on our orgones

Or.. and now just bear with me here. We could point out the OBVIOUS CORRUPTION IN CREATIVE CONVENTION POLICIES!

What I'm saying is everyone should vote for sebmojo.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

SurreptitiousMuffin posted:

Standard mafia practice: first day is a no-vote. Random voting (ESPECIALLY in early stages) has an extremely high chance of hitting the town. You need to build up a profile.

lol. what, no.

by not voting we lose an opportunity to track down the scum. yes, there's a chance of hitting town but if we no-lynch we surrender our only means of getting accurate information from the moderator .

you should never no lynch. it's bad strategy.

SurreptitiousMuffin
Mar 21, 2010
You're going to get information from the moderator anyway -- somebody innocent is going to die and who they are tells you a lot. I mean if a random lynching happens, it happens and that's more data, but I'm not voting in it today.

I guess it's kinda a bad risk-reward? You double your data (from kills), but also half your window. There's a lot of data potentially lost, because the thread doesn't last as long and people aren't talking as much.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

SurreptitiousMuffin posted:

You're going to get information from the moderator anyway -- somebody innocent is going to die and who they are tells you a lot. I mean if a random lynching happens, it happens and that's more data, but I'm not voting in it today.

I guess it's kinda a bad risk-reward? You double your data (from kills), but also half your window. There's a lot of data potentially lost, because the thread doesn't last as long and people aren't talking as much.



Assuming true randomness in lynch targets, the town has a greater probability of eventually hitting scum if it lynches someone D1 than it does in putting the decision off. In the "No-Lynch" scenario, there are four town members and two scum members alive on D3. If the town mislynches the game ends that night when the scum kill. In the YOLO scenario, there are three town members alive and two scum left on D3. The town mislynches and the game ends.

Putting aside math, a No-Lynch forces all the town roles to operate on minimal information. There's no way to use the flip, bandwagons, and cases to inform role choices. Nor is there as much information to operate on D2. While people can analyze the scum kill, there's little information to glean from the day itself. Everything ends up swaddled in circular reasoning.

In light of your recent posts, I really don't think you are scum. In fact, I'm about 85% sure of it. I do, however, think that a No-Lynch on D1 is the worst possible move that the town can make.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

That chart should be entitled "Percent Chance of Hitting Scum in a 9 Player Game" btw

Sitting Here
Dec 31, 2007

QuoProQuid posted:



Assuming true randomness in lynch targets, the town has a greater probability of eventually hitting scum if it lynches someone D1 than it does in putting the decision off. In the "No-Lynch" scenario, there are four town members and two scum members alive on D3. If the town mislynches the game ends that night when the scum kill. In the YOLO scenario, there are three town members alive and two scum left on D3. The town mislynches and the game ends.

Putting aside math, a No-Lynch forces all the town roles to operate on minimal information. There's no way to use the flip, bandwagons, and cases to inform role choices. Nor is there as much information to operate on D2. While people can analyze the scum kill, there's little information to glean from the day itself. Everything ends up swaddled in circular reasoning.

In light of your recent posts, I really don't think you are scum. In fact, I'm about 85% sure of it. I do, however, think that a No-Lynch on D1 is the worst possible move that the town can make.

qpq craves death i guess

Exmond
May 31, 2007

Writing is fun!
Keep in mind we dont know how many scum players there are? I thought it was random assignment of people?

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Sitting Here posted:

qpq craves death i guess

it is legit the only thing that keeps me going

Exmond posted:

Keep in mind we dont know how many scum players there are? I thought it was random assignment of people?

from op:

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Backup6

quote:

The setup is determined by randomly selecting one row or one column from the above table, then filling in the remaining 6 roles with 5 Vanilla Townies and 1 Mafia Goon to create a 7-town, 2-mafia setup.

For example, if Row 1 (Town Jailkeeper, Vanilla Townie, and Mafia Goon) was chosen, the full setup will be 1 Town Jailkeeper, 6 Vanilla Townies, and 2 Mafia Goons.

SurreptitiousMuffin
Mar 21, 2010
Huh, that checks out. It feels weird and unintuitive but numbers are numbers.

SurreptitiousMuffin
Mar 21, 2010
re this:

sebmojo
Oct 23, 2010


Legit Cyberpunk









please don't do intricate meta Mafia scheming in here, maybe keep it to irc? i think it will be a more entertaining thread that way. i've made #Barthes on synirc.

Podima
Nov 4, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
Just to be clear, please don't discuss this game outside of this thread unless you have a role that allows it. Thank you!

sebmojo
Oct 23, 2010


Legit Cyberpunk









Podima's right, my mistake.

b-minus1
Jul 24, 2008

She's a maniac, maniac
on the floor
And she's dancing like she's never danced before
was there seriously discussion of a d1 no lynch option?

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

people should vote sh, imho

SurreptitiousMuffin
Mar 21, 2010
Yeah mea culpa. I've been in one mafia game ever (in GBS) and that's what happened, and everybody was just kinda like "yeah this is what we do"

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

there's no need to apologize, friendo

who do you think is the most suspicious person iit atm

Thranguy
Apr 21, 2010


Deceitful and black-hearted, perhaps we are. But we would never go against the Code. Well, perhaps for good reasons. But mostly never.
yronic's the quietest, which might be suspicious.

Exmond
May 31, 2007

Writing is fun!

QuoProQuid posted:

there's no need to apologize, friendo

who do you think is the most suspicious person iit atm

My list of suspcious people, ranked in order

JonJoe
SebMojo
QuoQuidPro

Im up for allying though, who out of the list should we kill?

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Exmond posted:

My list of suspcious people, ranked in order

JonJoe
SebMojo
QuoQuidPro

Im up for allying though, who out of the list should we kill?

why those people, specifically?

Sitting Here
Dec 31, 2007

Exmond posted:

My list of suspcious people, ranked in order

JonJoe
SebMojo
QuoQuidPro

Im up for allying though, who out of the list should we kill?

vote jonjoe since he's not playing

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SurreptitiousMuffin
Mar 21, 2010
ALRIGHT THIS IS WRITER MAFIA LET'S GIVE IT SOME WRITER JUICE

Mr Muffin, clad in yellow, tapped his pencil to his chin. "If a man is silent" he said, "he's either hiding something, or he's not helping. Either way, his loss is felt less keenly."

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