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Tyrannosaurus posted:Why wait? Do it now you little bitch boy. loving do it. Do it. If there is any Jail guys that would be great to nail down. Who did you protect night 1 T-Rex and why?
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Sep 24, 2017 17:49
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Cool. Anyone want to counterclaim? If there is another doctor, a Jailkeeper, or a back-up, T-Rex is lying.
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Sep 24, 2017 17:52
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If I read the setup right, if there is a backup they might not know that they are backup yet. Also everyone should check in so nobody can say they missed a chance to counterclaim I think.
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Sep 24, 2017 18:26
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Tyrannosaurus posted:Why wait? Do it now you little bitch boy. loving do it. Do it. hello i am one of the frightened withbelievers that you are being a dick to i will happily change my vote if you can use this "math" to point out a better option
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Sep 24, 2017 18:36
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witch-believers, that should say. lmbo what a dummy pls guide me with your superior intellect, trex
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Sep 24, 2017 18:37
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For the record, it doesn't work as great anymore because I had to reveal myself. But here goes. There are seven us. A random lynching gave us a 1 in 7 chance of getting it correct. If the cop had revealed both themself and the the person they investigated then that number drops to 1 in 5. Which is better than 1 in 7. The doctor, myself, could quietly protect the cop from being killed each night. In the event that today we tried to lynch the doctor, which we did, I could reveal myself and then the number of possible candidates drops to 1 in 4. We know that the mafia would kill me because that's the only way to eventually get to the cop. But next turn, the cop would have investigated someone else and then we're down to 1 in 3 with three remaining players we know who are 100% not the mafia. We lynch. IF we're wrong, the mafia kills the cop. But now we have a 50/50 shot of killing the mafia on the next turn. Just by pure chance. 1/2 > 1/7 Math It's a strategy where we knowingly sacrifice ourselves for the greater good. Also, the situation above is literally the worst case scenario. If you guys didn't try to lynch me in the first round post-reveal then I can continue to protect the cop until the mafia gets lucky. And the mafia would be stuck between picking off the people he knows are town and trying to find me. Again, it doesn't super work anymore. It also doesn't work if the cop decided to investigate Sebmojo since he was killed. If the cop investigated Sebmojo, they should not reveal. Otherwise, they still could. It's just not as smart.
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Sep 24, 2017 18:55
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Tyrannosaurus posted:For the record, it doesn't work as great anymore because I had to reveal myself. But here goes. Hold on didn't you see my whole math post? If the cop revealed we had 3 instances where we couldn't win. The mafia played had a 1/6 chance of the doctor getting lynched, a 1/6 chance of just murdering the doctor or a 1/6 chance of murdering the guy the cop investigated. Look back and see my post man. The math was already done.
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Sep 24, 2017 19:19
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Exmond posted:Hold on didn't you see my whole math post? If the cop revealed we had 3 instances where we couldn't win. The mafia played had a 1/6 chance of the doctor getting lynched, a 1/6 chance of just murdering the doctor or a 1/6 chance of murdering the guy the cop investigated. The mafia played had a 1/7[chance of the doctor getting lynched, a 1/6 chance of just murdering the doctor or a 1/6 chance of murdering the guy the cop investigated. Any of these results being hit will result iin the cop being killed before the last round and the last round being 3 people with no knowledge of who is who
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Sep 24, 2017 19:21
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Exmond posted:Are you prepared as I break down the whole "Cop" reveal strategy. I'm not good at writing but I am good at math and stuff. QPQ do you want to comment on this as I trust you the most. It.. doesn't work out man. It's the more aggressive option for sure but it's a lame strategy.. Especially now that you revealed.
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Sep 24, 2017 19:23
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If the mafia kills the person the person the cop is investigating it still lowers the total number of people that could be mafia for us to lynch.
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Sep 24, 2017 19:26
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Tyrannosaurus posted:If the mafia kills the person the person the cop is investigating it still lowers the total number of people that could be mafia for us to lynch. Who did you choose to protect turn 1.
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Sep 24, 2017 19:28
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Like... Under the reveal strategy If the mafia doesn't kill me tonight and decides to kill someone else, there is a 100% chance they won't kill the cop. They can't. Even if the cop and the mafia aim for the same person, the number of people who could be the mafia goes down. But I guess farting accusations into the wind is cool too
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Sep 24, 2017 19:32
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Exmond posted:Who did you choose to protect turn 1. The person I think is the cop
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Sep 24, 2017 19:33
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I want to hear other peoples opinions. I think if T-Rex is the doctor that we should be suspicious of QPQ. We should do the math to see if the cop should reveal next round too. Only risk we have right now is T-Rex gets lynched (Doctor down) and then the mafia player gets the Cop... There is another.. very risky.. strategy we could do. it assumes T-Rex is telling the truth.
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Sep 24, 2017 19:42
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i kinda wish Yronic would check in, since currently it seems we DO have a doctor/cop setup and not a jailkeeper (since at this point, couldn't that person claim their role and contradict trex?) Like I guess I just wish we could hear from everyone before we make a choice, but I think we're running out of time
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Sep 24, 2017 19:46
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Here's how you prove I'm not telling the truth: 1) Someone claims to be the doctor 2) Someone claims to be the jailer No one will. Because t h e y a r e n t
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Sep 24, 2017 19:47
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that's fine, but I would like everyone to be here to confirm that, which currently isn't the case
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Sep 24, 2017 19:48
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Ill be honest I'm most suspicious of QPQ -- Is able to lead everyone Yronic -- Constantly going after the easy target (ME), is acting like a new player but has 3 games under their belt, hardly every justifies their arguments But both of my suspicions have problems QPQ -- Is leading us yes, but leading us towards victory! Unless he and Byronic decided to run a "long con" I don't think has weight. Yronic -- Well, I mean they are targeting me. I have no read on Thran guy or Muffin.
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Sep 24, 2017 19:51
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If we assume trex is telling the truth...would it work out, mathematically, to lynch someone who knows they're innocent/useless? And then have the cop reveal? We know the mafia would probably take out the doctor tonight, but that would narrow it down a whole lot, right? if that works I volunteer for slaughter if not i'll shut up b/c i'm still learning about this game 
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Sep 24, 2017 19:51
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Sitting Here posted:If we assume trex is telling the truth...would it work out, mathematically, to lynch someone who knows they're innocent/useless? And then have the cop reveal? We know the mafia would probably take out the doctor tonight, but that would narrow it down a whole lot, right? It depends on if the cop investigated Sebmojo. If the cop investigated literally anyone else then we know 3 out of the 7 remaining players are in the clear. and can work accordingly.
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Sep 24, 2017 19:54
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Tyrannosaurus posted:Here's how you prove I'm not telling the truth: Crap, it doesn't work out, we need to lynch someone. I'm putting the hammer down in an hour since ill be gone when the timer rolls over. Round C: T-rex dead and was doctor Cop is NOT dead Cop Round A Investigation is dead Cop Round B Investigation is alive (Friendly A) 5 people left Cop Reveals, Cop also reveals friendly 3 people under suspicion (Revealed: Cop, Friendly A) Cop + friendly work together Round D: Cop dies 2 people under suspicion (friendly, X, Y) Round B: T-rex dead and was doctor Cop is NOT dead Cop Round A Investigation is alive (Friendly A) Cop Round B Investigation is alive (Friendly B) 5 people left 2 people under suspicion (Cop, Friendly A, Friendly B) Cop and Friendlys work together Round C: Cop dies 1 people under suspicion (Friendly A, Friendly B) Round B: WE DONT KILL T-REX T-rex dies and is doctor (mafia death) Cop Round A Investigation is dead Cop Round B Investigation is alive (Friendly A) 6 people left, 4 people under suspcion (Cop, Friendly A) Round C: Cop dies 4 people left 3 people under suspicion (Friendly A) Round D: 2 people left Victory for mafia if they are alive
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Sep 24, 2017 20:01
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I believe T. rex because there hasn't been a counter claim. I really think someone should unvote. I am getting suspicious of sitting here. Posts read like someone trying a little hard to sound town. Didn't vote for minus1. I suppose muffin could have hammered minus1 to stay above suspicion but doesn't read as scummy to me. I believe Tranguy is low effort town. Ex still seems scummy to me but I think I would switch my vote to sh. I assume ex will get investigated sooner or later if we have a cop, which we apparently do if we believe this is a cop/doc setup. Like everyone i trust QPQ. Hard to believe they would sacrifice a scum bro so quickly.
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Sep 24, 2017 20:04
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holy loving poo poo, shut up about math and play the goddamn game t-rex, who do you think is suspicious? i ask because your only contributions to the thread have been yelling at people who think you are suspicious and yelling about aforementioned ~~~math~~~ Exmond posted:Ill be honest I'm most suspicious of do you have any suspicions that aren't based around "guy voted for me" or followed by huge, blinking asterisks.
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Sep 24, 2017 20:06
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goooooood drat in ##unvote waiting for a counterclaim.
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Sep 24, 2017 20:08
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If we think trex is the doctor, then kill me ##unvote (do i need to specify trex?)
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Sep 24, 2017 20:08
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like, stabs in the dark will take a lot of time and I don't want to accidentally hit the cop or something
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Sep 24, 2017 20:09
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AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHAHAHA There is a way out but it is a gamble. I'll roll the dice. If T-rex is telling the truth he should know his next move, especially if he is the doctor. If Muffin triggers T-Rex's death, then Muffin is mafia (I doubt it muffin is mafia.) My bet is nobody dies this round, Ill explain the gamble next round. ##vote yronic heroism
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Sep 24, 2017 20:09
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Exmond posted:AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHAHAHA Oh I uhh I won't vote if that's an option.
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Sep 24, 2017 20:10
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Tyrannosaurus posted:Like... You know what? I'm okay with this since we have a credible doc claim from you. I am the cop. Thranguy is confirmed town. I am willing to back off ex for now and ask folks to consider no hammer. ##unvote EXMOND IF YOU ARE TOWN DO NOT HAMMER THE DOC!
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Sep 24, 2017 20:12
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"Sitting Here as Scum" is an interesting theory. I agree with yonic that some of her recent posts have bad ~~vibes.~~ The constant qualifying of actions with "im new" could be scum trying to explain away inconsistencies in behavior. Her two most recent posts, in particular, give me pause. Hm. Anyone else have any thoughts on the matter?
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Sep 24, 2017 20:12
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yronic heroism posted:You know what? I'm okay with this since we have a credible doc claim from you. I am the cop. Thranguy is confirmed town. oh waht the fuc
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Sep 24, 2017 20:12
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yronic heroism posted:You know what? I'm okay with this since we have a credible doc claim from you. I am the cop. Thranguy is confirmed town. yronic did you investigate sebmojo round 1?
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Sep 24, 2017 20:14
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Exmond posted:yronic did you investigate sebmojo round 1? Investigated Thranguy, who is town
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Sep 24, 2017 20:16
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vote me, but the cop should investigate QPQ asap
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Sep 24, 2017 20:18
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That's why I kept saying Thranguy seemed cool in my posts today, I was trying to leave breadcrumbs in case scum killed me tonight.
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Sep 24, 2017 20:18
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Exmond posted:yronic did you investigate sebmojo round 1? Wait we WIN!!!!!!! We need to lynch someone, everyone vote exmond WE NEED TO KILL ME TO WIN, WE NEED TO HAVE 5 PEOPLE LEFT ROUND C 7 people left Thran, T-rex,yronic 4 suspicious 5 peple left Thran,yronic, Friendly A 2 suspicious 3 peoople left Thran, Firendly A WIN ##vote exmond Seb mojo im coming to see you!
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Sep 24, 2017 20:18
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Unless it is scum running a Hail Mary and depending on inactivity, I don't see yronic or T-Rex as scum. I considered his original claim to be a desperation play, but the lack of any counter-claims makes me more comfortable. I'm still mad about him not providing any reads in the thread and getting angry every time someone accuses him of something. I trust yronic because I don't see scum making a claim when they aren't under any pressure. I'm leaning toward Sitting Here as a lynch if Thranguy really has been investigated and vindicated. Exmond's posts read to me like a new player getting the ropes. Muffin, while not hugely active today, struck me as trustworthy yesterday. His actions seemed logical and I could understand his thinking
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Sep 24, 2017 20:19
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##Vote sitting here
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Sep 24, 2017 20:20
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Sitting Here posted:##Vote sitting here yo, don't do that Exmond posted:##vote exmond gosh almighty please stop
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Sep 24, 2017 20:21
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##vote Exmond
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Sep 24, 2017 20:21
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