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evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

HerStuddMuffin posted:

I know you're being facetious, but ham's tried that argument (and you are making fun of that) and it was bullshit even then. If you need another currency to handle day-to-day transaction, then that coin would displace bitcoin and remove it from the marketplace. It would only be good for bitcoin in the sense that it would put it out of its misery. Doing business in cryptocoin, whatever specific one you use, is already a hassle because it's like doing business in a foreign currency inside your own country, which is simply insane to expect of the general public. Have you seen tourists handling foreign currencies, regardless of nationality and country visited? To affirm that people would voluntarily use not one, but two or more kinds of weirdollars in their daily life is moronic beyond words.

And evil weasel, thank you for the explanation, but it takes me back to my conundrum. Since Chinese miners want cash, and they have to sell abroad because they want USD, not yuan, and it's trivial to turn coins into cash through the exchanges, how aren't they crashing the US price to the production cost of bitcoins in China or thereabout?
I'm still left with three explanations: either the price is manipulated out the wazoo, or it's not so easy to cash out, or miners are a small fraction of the market.

mining is a net loss, usually, once you factor in hardware costs and electricity. there is a specific amount generated per day, and you have to keep buying more and more hardware to keep your chances of winning some of them the same. if there's a gap between the "cost of production" and the "price" of a bitcoin that gets narrowed by people buying a ton more miners until the production cost is about the same as the price (because the amount generated is a constant, it can't crash to the price of production because the price of production doesn't dictate the amount of production)

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HerStuddMuffin
Aug 10, 2014

YOSPOS
Exactly how many tons of coal does it take to mine a bitcoin these days if a $5000 price tag is a net loss, holy loving poo poo!?

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!
Here's a joke for you. How many Ham Sandwiches does it take to buy a bitcoin? None, because he's a lying cowardly bastard.

Here's another joke. Bitcoin.

Thank you, thank you, I'll be here all week.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

HerStuddMuffin posted:

Exactly how many tons of coal does it take to mine a bitcoin these days if a $5000 price tag is a net loss, holy loving poo poo!?

its possible it's a net profit right now, but won't be for long

but the bitcoin network wastes more electricity doing nothing than many small countries

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004

HerStuddMuffin posted:

I know you're being facetious, but ham's tried that argument (and you are making fun of that) and it was bullshit even then. If you need another currency to handle day-to-day transaction, then that coin would displace bitcoin and remove it from the marketplace. It would only be good for bitcoin in the sense that it would put it out of its misery. Doing business in cryptocoin, whatever specific one you use, is already a hassle because it's like doing business in a foreign currency inside your own country, which is simply insane to expect of the general public. Have you seen tourists handling foreign currencies, regardless of nationality and country visited? To affirm that people would voluntarily use not one, but two or more kinds of weirdollars in their daily life is moronic beyond words.

And evil weasel, thank you for the explanation, but it takes me back to my conundrum. Since Chinese miners want cash, and they have to sell abroad because they want USD, not yuan, and it's trivial to turn coins into cash through the exchanges, how aren't they crashing the US price to the production cost of bitcoins in China or thereabout?
I'm still left with three explanations: either the price is manipulated out the wazoo, or it's not so easy to cash out, or miners are a small fraction of the market.
Why do you assume that the Chinese want USD and not yuan?

Prester Jane
Nov 4, 2008

by Hand Knit

evilweasel posted:

its possible it's a net profit right now, but won't be for long

but the bitcoin network wastes more electricity doing nothing than many small countries

100 years from now our great-grandchildren will hold up charts of the power usage of Bitcoin as a demonstration of the wasteful nature of previous generations right before the enemy cavalry charges their position defending one of the last stores of fresh water..

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004

evilweasel posted:

mining is a net loss, usually, once you factor in hardware costs and electricity. there is a specific amount generated per day, and you have to keep buying more and more hardware to keep your chances of winning some of them the same. if there's a gap between the "cost of production" and the "price" of a bitcoin that gets narrowed by people buying a ton more miners until the production cost is about the same as the price (because the amount generated is a constant, it can't crash to the price of production because the price of production doesn't dictate the amount of production)
I think it's profitable in China where costs are significantly lower. Not sure though because I don't care about mining and consequently don't know much more than the basics

univbee
Jun 3, 2004




Uranium 235 posted:

Why do you assume that the Chinese want USD and not yuan?

When he said "they want USD" he meant "they want their money outside of China", and usually when they want it outside of China this means "in the United States", which generally uses USD and not Yuan.

HerStuddMuffin
Aug 10, 2014

YOSPOS

Uranium 235 posted:

Why do you assume that the Chinese want USD and not yuan?
They're using mining as a way to get their wealth out of China, circumventing the government regulations, as per the post I was responding to? Selling their coins for Chinese currency would completely defeat the point.

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004

univbee posted:

When he said "they want USD" he meant "they want their money outside of China", and usually when they want it outside of China this means "in the United States", which generally uses USD and not Yuan.
Yeah no poo poo. It's that underlying assumption that they want to move all their wealth outside of China that I'm questioning. I know a lot of Chinese people and none of them are rushing to get everything they own out. Most of them are investing in China.

I'm not doubting that wealthy Chinese hedge by investing in USD. Obviously they do.

edit: also you're adding an unnecessary step... if you think they're buying BTC with yuan so they can then use BTC to buy a foreign currency, why do the latter? They can just hold BTC instead as a hedge against yuan and then buy more yuan back if it falls against BTC.

Uranium 235 fucked around with this message at 20:41 on Oct 14, 2017

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Uranium 235 posted:

Why do you assume that the Chinese want USD and not yuan?

why do you assume all chinese want the same thing

its not like everyone in china is buttmining

univbee
Jun 3, 2004




Why the gently caress do you think the law that Bitcoin laundering is circumventing exists?! Huge sums of money and people pour out of China constantly (and yes, a country of a billion people does also have a substantial number of people who are content staying put). It's been happening for so long America's first anti-immigration laws were targeting Chinese people specifically, and it's also a big part of the reason why so few can afford houses in places like San Francisco and Vancouver now.

The Chinese people getting their assets out of China might not even know all that much about Bitcoin and just be using a service which has people doing the backend steps, with all they see or care about being "spend Yuan in China, get USD in America, no export controls". The creamy Bitcoin middle they don't know or care about, and if they do their only interest in it is getting it into the normal US financial system, they're not holding.

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

HerStuddMuffin posted:

Why does it have to crash? The coins aren't going anywhere, they don't go bad like tulip bulbs, they're already not anywhere anyway since they're virtual, what's stopping them from sitting, unwanted, in a ghost town of an exchange, forever on offer at a high price nobody will ever pay because nobody even remembers they exist? Asking seriously, here.

What's the effective difference then? A widget no one will buy is a worthless widget. The longer the widget sits unsold at that price the more people will then sell theirs at a lower price which will probably cause a domino effect as everyone rushes to undercut each other.

If that goes on for a bit then suddenly everyone is in a panic and are rushing to liquidate at any price. Assuming anyone is buying at all ofc. There's usually a few bulls that get pulled in on the way down.

COMRADES fucked around with this message at 21:21 on Oct 14, 2017

Ham Sandwitch
Oct 13, 2017

by FactsAreUseless
ITT: Goons masturbating for something that will never happen (btc collapsing), as I'm sure they've been doing continuously for 3 or more years. Meanwhile demand for Bitcoin has increased exponentially, which they continue to ignore or handwave away, naming anyone with a demand for this new asset an idiot.

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004

evilweasel posted:

why do you assume all chinese want the same thing
thank you for making my point for me

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004

univbee posted:

(and yes, a country of a billion people does also have a substantial number of people who are content staying put)
yep, and even the wealthy Chinese who are buying foreign assets are doing so to hedge against their own currency, not because they're getting everything they own out of China. The activity of Chinese buying bitcoin as a hedge (whether using it to buy USD or just holding bitcoin, I'm sure it's a mix of both) is not unlike what anyone else in the world does when they buy bitcoin. It's done with the expectation that their own currency could fall in value relative to whatever it is they're buying.

Steen71
Apr 10, 2017

Fun Shoe

Ham Sandwitch posted:

naming anyone with a demand for this new asset an idiot.

I thought it was a currency...

Ham Sandwitch
Oct 13, 2017

by FactsAreUseless

Steen71 posted:

I thought it was a currency...
Not yet, not in my opinion anyway. It's difficult to define something that is rewriting the rules.

iceaim
May 20, 2001

Uranium 235 posted:

Why do you assume that the Chinese want USD and not yuan?

They want a fully convertible currency which the yuan isn't.

iceaim fucked around with this message at 00:08 on Oct 15, 2017

Hi Jinx
Feb 12, 2016

Steen71 posted:

I thought it was a currency...

Sort of, as long as you can buy things with it it's a currency I guess. More importantly though it's a currency that's limited to 7 transactions per second. People might argue that it's somewhat more with Segwit, etc, but the reality is that Visa alone handled 1000 times that over 10 years ago. (I can't be arsed to google more recent numbers because it's not relevant.) And looking at (say) 1bn transactions per day for a truly global currency, there's no way to put that on a distributed blockchain like Bitcoin. And before I get shot down by zealots with stuff like Lightning, etc: none of that is in production.

It's really more of a purely digital asset then, not unlike property in an MMO. As long as enough people believe it has value, you can exchange it for real currency or barter it for goods.

Hi Jinx
Feb 12, 2016

HerStuddMuffin posted:

They're using mining as a way to get their wealth out of China.

Why would anyone have to go through the trouble of running a mining operation for that? Just buy BTC for Yuan on one of the Chinese exchanges.

iceaim
May 20, 2001

Ham Sandwitch posted:

ITT: Goons masturbating for something that will never happen (btc collapsing), as I'm sure they've been doing continuously for 3 or more years. Meanwhile demand for Bitcoin has increased exponentially, which they continue to ignore or handwave away, naming anyone with a demand for this new asset an idiot.

Pretty much. Plus nobody was buying products and services on the informal market with tulips. Will crypto-currency ever have mass appeal? Probably not, but there will be a niche of people who will use it for their needs. Like VR, it's not going to go away.

Hi Jinx posted:

Why would anyone have to go through the trouble of running a mining operation for that? Just buy BTC for Yuan on one of the Chinese exchanges.

You mean the Chinese exchanges that Beijing just banned because they're freaked out about capital outflows?

iceaim fucked around with this message at 00:13 on Oct 15, 2017

William Henry Hairytaint
Oct 29, 2011



Paladinus posted:

Here's a joke for you. How many Ham Sandwiches does it take to buy a bitcoin? None, because he's a lying cowardly bastard.

Here's another joke. Bitcoin.

Thank you, thank you, I'll be here all week.

Why'd the bitcoiner cross the road, roll in the mud, and cross back over?

Because bitcoiners are dirty double crossers! :haw: :slick:

univbee
Jun 3, 2004




Just remember if Bitcoin crashes and you aren't sure of how to buy drugs afterwards, always remember

Hi Jinx
Feb 12, 2016

iceaim posted:

You mean the Chinese exchanges that Beijing just banned because they're freaked out about capital outflows?

I meant those, yeah. I didn't know they were actually closed.

If trading BTC is illegal though, I'd question the legality of mining Bitcoins as well. After all, if you can't buy BTC for Yuan, how is it legal to use Yuan to buy electricity to generate Bitcoins? But even if mining is not outright illegal, it still takes 3-4 months to get $1bn in mining rewards at current exchange rates (assuming they all go to the same person); it's a lot of money for sure but hardly THE way for the Chinese upper class to diversify. Forbes says the top 1.5m hold something like $24 trillion.

Anyway, my point is that mining in China isn't likely to be some money-laundering scheme: it's actually reasonably profitable with cheap electricity.

Prester Jane
Nov 4, 2008

by Hand Knit

Hi Jinx posted:

Sort of, as long as you can buy things with it it's a currency I guess. More importantly though it's a currency that's limited to 7 transactions per second. People might argue that it's somewhat more with Segwit, etc, but the reality is that Visa alone handled 1000 times that over 10 years ago. (I can't be arsed to google more recent numbers because it's not relevant.) And looking at (say) 1bn transactions per day for a truly global currency, there's no way to put that on a distributed blockchain like Bitcoin. And before I get shot down by zealots with stuff like Lightning, etc: none of that is in production.

It's really more of a purely digital asset then, not unlike property in an MMO. As long as enough people believe it has value, you can exchange it for real currency or barter it for goods.

Just some real simple math here to put the Bitcoin network into perspective. In real world terms the Bitcoin network is only able to handle about 3.2-3.5 transactions per second. If we assume that a cashier will average a single transaction every 60 seconds, then 210 cashiers (less than working a good size mall during a holiday rush) would generate about 3.5 transactions per second.

So quite literally a larger mall in an urban area during a holiday rush could very easily generate 2x-3x what the entire Bitcoin network can handle.

Prester Jane
Nov 4, 2008

by Hand Knit

Hi Jinx posted:

I meant those, yeah. I didn't know they were actually closed.

If trading BTC is illegal though, I'd question the legality of mining Bitcoins as well. After all, if you can't buy BTC for Yuan, how is it legal to use Yuan to buy electricity to generate Bitcoins? But even if mining is not outright illegal, it still takes 3-4 months to get $1bn in mining rewards at current exchange rates (assuming they all go to the same person); it's a lot of money for sure but hardly THE way for the Chinese upper class to diversify. Forbes says the top 1.5m hold something like $24 trillion.

Anyway, my point is that mining in China isn't likely to be some money-laundering scheme: it's actually reasonably profitable with cheap electricity.

China told all the owners of the mining firms not to leave the country about a month ago. China is getting ready to clamp down on the miners the same way they did the exchanges. The Chinese state clearly does not approve of Bitcoin and is not going to simply turn a blind eye to such obvious organized crime.

QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

Bardeh posted:

So what is the critical event needed to make Bitcoin crash into the ground? It's poo poo, it's slow, it's bad as a store of value....but the price keeps going up. When or why is it going to crash?

It probably won't ever "crash into the ground" ie become 0. There will always be a dedicated core of bag holders making wild price estimates, just as there are still people with "valuable" beanie babies

QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

Hi Jinx posted:

Why would anyone have to go through the trouble of running a mining operation for that? Just buy BTC for Yuan on one of the Chinese exchanges.

The people with bitcoins don't want Yuan.

Hi Jinx
Feb 12, 2016

Prester Jane posted:

China told all the owners of the mining firms not to leave the country about a month ago. China is getting ready to clamp down on the miners the same way they did the exchanges. The Chinese state clearly does not approve of Bitcoin and is not going to simply turn a blind eye to such obvious organized crime.

Well that sucks for them. (The miners I mean.) It's going to be interesting to see what stance other large governments develop as BTC and shitcoins mature. The more they look like currency, the less likely they will be allowed to exist. No state would cede the fiat currency's power to something they can't control.

I like the idea of cryptocurrencies and it'd be fun to see them succeed but I just don't see how that'd ever happen.

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004

iceaim posted:

You mean the Chinese exchanges that Beijing just banned because they're freaked out about capital outflows?
It's probably going to be a temporary ban to give the Chinese government time to figure out how to regulate the exchanges. They probably aren't closing the door to legal purchase of crypto assets.

edit: forever, that is

Uranium 235 fucked around with this message at 01:54 on Oct 15, 2017

Ham Sandwitch
Oct 13, 2017

by FactsAreUseless
Hey all, I'm beloved permabanned forums poster and actual bitcoin millionaire Seraph84.



Here I am telling YOSPOS to buy Bitcoin back in August 2015, when they were worth only $231 each.

They didn't listen then, and made their worthless "up Up UP!" comments, and that's exactly what bitcoin did. Most of you probably still won't listen now, but you should all buy Bitcoin and hold it so you can one day be rich like me. It only took 4 years of holding, it's not a long time really.

Prester Jane
Nov 4, 2008

by Hand Knit

Uranium 235 posted:

It's probably going to be a temporary ban to give the Chinese government time to figure out how to regulate the exchanges. They probably aren't closing the door to legal purchase of crypto assets.

edit: forever, that is

Apparently you have never even once observed how the Chinese state conducts business. China does not want its currency leaving its borders for a whole host of complicated reasons that the Chinese state views as essential to its ongoing existence. The Chinese state does not give the tiniest of fucks about "regulating" the exchanges because while the Chinese state may be corrupt and onerous it is not stupid and does not like its citizens subverting its will.

Your assertion of the intentions of the Chinese state is based purely on hope and makes sense only if you understand literally nothing at all about what makes the Chinese state tick.

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004

Prester Jane posted:

Apparently you have never even once observed how the Chinese state conducts business. China does not want its currency leaving its borders for a whole host of complicated reasons that the Chinese state views as essential to its ongoing existence. The Chinese state does not give the tiniest of fucks about "regulating" the exchanges because while the Chinese state may be corrupt and onerous it is not stupid and does not like its citizens subverting its will.

Your assertion of the intentions of the Chinese state is based purely on hope and makes sense only if you understand literally nothing at all about what makes the Chinese state tick.
yeah and you, prester jane, do

lol

edit: btw it makes no difference to me whether china bans exchanges or not. i do not buy and hold bitcoin or other cryptos long term. i'm in USD 99% of the time and i trade, so volatility is good for me. i made money on the crash that was caused by the news breaking that china was going to force exchanges to close. my point here is that my opinion that china's ban is temporary is not based on wishful thinking, because china's ban was good for me in the short term and is neutral in the long term if it is permanent

Uranium 235 fucked around with this message at 03:09 on Oct 15, 2017

Prester Jane
Nov 4, 2008

by Hand Knit

Uranium 235 posted:

my point here is that my opinion that china's ban is temporary is not based on wishful thinking, because china's ban was good for me in the short term and is neutral in the long term if it is permanent

Your point is that China's ban is temporary because you profited off the ban is uhh...pretty much just strait up wishful thinking dude. Feel free to post a single piece of news or analysis from a mainstream source that gives any indication that the ban is temporary. If you are unable to do so it just means that all you have is wishful thinking.

Prester Jane fucked around with this message at 03:15 on Oct 15, 2017

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004

Prester Jane posted:

Your point is that China's ban is temporary because you profited off the ban is uhh...pretty much just strait up wishful thinking dude.
that is not what i said at all. you accused me of wishful thinking because i believe the ban is temporary. i'm telling you that it's not wishful thinking--i don't care if the ban is temporary because it doesn't affect my ability to profit from trading. if i'm wrong it's no skin off my back, so why should i need to wishfully think that the ban is temporary?

quote:

Feel free to post a single piece of news or analysis from a mainstream source that gives any indication that the ban is temporary. If you are unable to do so it just means that all you have is wishful thinking.
that does not logically follow, unless you believe that mainstream news is the only valid source for information about cryptocurrency (i think you probably don't). i heard about the exchange ban through non-mainstream channels before it was reported in mainstream channels. most crypto news is disseminated through non-mainstream channels. that doesn't mean that everything said about crypto in non-mainstream channels is true, obviously. my belief that the ban is temporary is shaded with a healthy degree of doubt--it's provisional. it's what i think is likeliest to happen.

Lime Tonics
Nov 7, 2015

by FactsAreUseless
In the meantime, most Americans aren’t buying into bitcoin, but lots of mysterious foreigners — from far-away locations like Malaysia, Indonesia and other places where people go to disappear — are investing in it.

also, the best part about bitcoin is bank of america can start using it to restart their failed drug money laundering system, because reasons.

it is going to happen one day, maybe not today but one day.

also, lol for money being backed by power bills to server farms.

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004

Lime Tonics posted:

In the meantime, most Americans aren’t buying into bitcoin, but lots of mysterious foreigners — from far-away locations like Malaysia, Indonesia and other places where people go to disappear — are investing in it.
most volume comes from the US, China, Japan, Korea, and Europe. but yeah i guess people in "mysterious" foreign places like malaysia and indonesia also buy crypto?

quote:

also, lol for money being backed by power bills to server farms.
yeah proof of work is pretty dumb

Prester Jane
Nov 4, 2008

by Hand Knit
Okay you are correct Uranium, your assertion that the Chinese ban is temporary is not based on wishful thinking, it is instead based on literally nothing at all.

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QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

Hi Jinx posted:

Well that sucks for them. (The miners I mean.) It's going to be interesting to see what stance other large governments develop as BTC and shitcoins mature. The more they look like currency, the less likely they will be allowed to exist. No state would cede the fiat currency's power to something they can't control.

I like the idea of cryptocurrencies and it'd be fun to see them succeed but I just don't see how that'd ever happen.

I like the idea of digital money that is secured by cryptographic signatures, but that is something that has already existed for half a century and is in use by all of the major financial institutions all around the world

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