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Intruder
Mar 5, 2003

quote:

First, he is one of the preeminent relief arms on the market. He is going to ask for (and receive, probably from a large-market contender) a lucrative, multi-year deal that is based at least in large part on what he’s done in the league. And good for him, more power to him. I don’t think the Astros should go down that road for a couple of reasons: because of the cost-benefit analysis (he’s had one 3 win season as a reliever, one two win season, and otherwise has hovered around 1.1 fWAR) of the dollars spent and likely-lack of available surplus value in a proffered contract...and because I think the 32 year old right handed reliever is hitting the front end of his aging curve decline, and I am in the camp who believes that you sign a contract to pay a player for what they will do, not for what they did do in the past.

Over the last three years, his BB/9 rate has gone from 2.67 to 3.32 to 4.30 in 2017, for starters. Fine, BB/9 isn’t a great stat for indicating decline. In addition, his FIP has increased from 1.19 in 2014 to 2.29 in 2015 and 2016 before reaching 3.38 in 2017. His xFIP increases have been even more pronounced in that time frame - 1.93 in 2014, 3.07 in 2015, 3.68 in 2016, 3.57 in 2017.

.....

His average velocity has diminished slightly each of the last two seasons as well.

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Kirios
Jan 26, 2010




Okay....maybe, but what do you propose they do otherwise? Just leave the bullpen as is?

fast cars loose anus
Mar 2, 2007

Pillbug
Its arguable that taking a fling with farm arms or cheap FAs is better than giving a declining closer a big deal

Granted he's a proven guy but then again so were some of our arms at one point too

Intruder
Mar 5, 2003

Kirios posted:

Okay....maybe, but what do you propose they do otherwise? Just leave the bullpen as is?

I think Giles is still the closer. You shore it up with a lefty arm or two and let Martes and Musgrove continue to grow as inning eaters. Maybe pick up a RH setup guy to mitigate the loss of Gregerson

I think we'll see big things from Martes in 2018

As ugly as the pen looked in the playoffs, they were still one of the better pens through the season

Kirios
Jan 26, 2010




quote:

Fresh off a World Series victory, the Astros would like to supplement their bullpen with a left-handed reliever, reports Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle. Kaplan lists Mike Minor and Jake McGee as two potential targets for the ’Stros, noting that Minor’s frequent outings of more than one inning in 2017 could appeal to Houston. So, too, could the fact that he thrived in his limited time as a closer and has no discernible platoon split, thus giving Houston a possible safety net in the event that Ken Giles’ struggles carry over into the 2018 season.

Are you leaning towards Minor?

TheChirurgeon
Aug 7, 2002

Remember how good you are
Taco Defender

Intruder posted:

I think Giles is still the closer. You shore it up with a lefty arm or two and let Martes and Musgrove continue to grow as inning eaters. Maybe pick up a RH setup guy to mitigate the loss of Gregerson

I think we'll see big things from Martes in 2018

As ugly as the pen looked in the playoffs, they were still one of the better pens through the season

Yeah I'm hesitant to put too much weight on the playoff performance of the bullpen because they were so good in the regular season. I'd like to see us have a more reliable closer, but the way this team is built, I FIRMLY BELIEVE* that no lead is insurmountable for us and our bats can get us through those situations


*and will loving fight every one of you in the playoff game day threads over it

b0ng
Jan 16, 2004

Thats a nice Game 7 you have there. Would be a shame if somebody nailed it down.
What I am ready to see is super smug fan of a championship team Intruder. It would be the 180 of the year

Big Mean Jerk
Jan 27, 2009

Well, of course I know him.
He's me.
It's still kind of insane that to me that we got through the entire postseason without using 90% of our regular season bullpen. And when they did throw, they tended to be mediocre or poor.

TheChirurgeon
Aug 7, 2002

Remember how good you are
Taco Defender

b0ng posted:

What I am ready to see is super smug fan of a championship team Intruder. It would be the 180 of the year

It will be followed immediately by frothing immediately disappointed by every misstep or loss and only happy with back-to-back championships Intruder

Imasalmon
Mar 19, 2003

Meet me in the Hall of Fame
I moved my season seats from the lower level between first base and the right field wall to the third level directly behind home plate!

Kirios
Jan 26, 2010




AJ Hinch was robbed

Intruder
Mar 5, 2003

Imasalmon posted:

I moved my season seats from the lower level between first base and the right field wall to the third level directly behind home plate!

Nice

ComposerGuy
Jul 28, 2007

Conspicuous Absinthe

Kirios posted:

AJ Hinch was robbed

Seriously, wtf?

Edward Mass
Sep 14, 2011

𝅘𝅥𝅮 I wanna go home with the armadillo
Good country music from Amarillo and Abilene
Friendliest people and the prettiest women you've ever seen
𝅘𝅥𝅮
In fairness to the BBWAA, the Twins had a ~30 game turnaround.

No Safe Word
Feb 26, 2005

Yeah I think Hinch didn't get as many votes as he should have but Molitor winning is totally understandable

Imasalmon
Mar 19, 2003

Meet me in the Hall of Fame
Hinch gets a World Series ring, so I doubt he'll be upset about not getting a plaque or whatever they give for that award.

MrMidnight
Aug 3, 2006

Imasalmon posted:

Hinch gets a World Series ring, so I doubt he'll be upset about not getting a plaque or whatever they give for that award.

Yeah, I wasn't upset about Hinch. I WILL be upset if Altuve doesn't get MVP though.

Kirios
Jan 26, 2010




Me too because it means my avatar suddenly kinda sucks. Isn't that announced today?

Edward Mass
Sep 14, 2011

𝅘𝅥𝅮 I wanna go home with the armadillo
Good country music from Amarillo and Abilene
Friendliest people and the prettiest women you've ever seen
𝅘𝅥𝅮

Kirios posted:

Me too because it means my avatar suddenly kinda sucks. Isn't that announced today?

5PM, but probably more like 5:30.

Kirios
Jan 26, 2010




gently caress

Yes

<---------------------------------------------------------------

Intruder
Mar 5, 2003

Altuve got his number of first place votes which is cool

G-Hawk
Dec 15, 2003

Tiny baseball god :)

Kirios
Jan 26, 2010




https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/931258077499625472

Big Mean Jerk
Jan 27, 2009

Well, of course I know him.
He's me.
Ambivalent about that. Hinch isn't the greatest manager, but something is clearly working and the guys like him. I guess keep paying the man until he craters or you find someone better. :shrug:

Kirios
Jan 26, 2010




Why do you say Hinch isn't that great? Everything this year showed me that he's actually a pretty fantastic manager...top 5 in baseball even.

ComposerGuy
Jul 28, 2007

Conspicuous Absinthe
Managers in-game mean almost nothing in the big picture. You can argue playoff decisions, but in the regular season its whatever.

The real value is in the clubhouse, and the Astros really, really like A.J.

You don't gently caress with that.

G-Hawk
Dec 15, 2003

keep aj as long as it keeps this team's core together

Big Mean Jerk
Jan 27, 2009

Well, of course I know him.
He's me.

Kirios posted:

Why do you say Hinch isn't that great? Everything this year showed me that he's actually a pretty fantastic manager...top 5 in baseball even.

I don't think he has a handle on the bullpen and he tends to be overconfident in using those arms when they're clearly broken.

Again, I'm not saying he isn't great. Just not the greatest, and maybe not a guy you want to lock down to a 5+ year deal.

Kirios
Jan 26, 2010




It's going to break my heart if I ever see Altuve not playing for the Astros.

Please pay our short baseball God.

ComposerGuy
Jul 28, 2007

Conspicuous Absinthe

Kirios posted:

It's going to break my heart if I ever see Altuve not playing for the Astros.

Please pay our short baseball God.

Altuve better be the next Biggio. I.E. he never puts on a different uniform.

Big Mean Jerk
Jan 27, 2009

Well, of course I know him.
He's me.

ComposerGuy posted:

Altuve better be the next Biggio. I.E. he never puts on a different uniform.

Given how rare this is today, how cheap Crane has been, and how Boras is his agent, I give it 3-5 years before Jose plays somewhere else.

I'll still love him though unless he wears pinstripes

Intruder
Mar 5, 2003

Crane said once the team started winning we could expect the payroll to grow into the top 5

Time to see if he was full of poo poo

ComposerGuy
Jul 28, 2007

Conspicuous Absinthe
I think we'll give him one big contract for 4-5 years, ride his prime (ensuring his potential HoF entry is as an Astro) and then let someone else overpay for his mid-to-late 30s.

Intruder
Mar 5, 2003

I think if we let him play out his contract at his severely below market rate he may be angry enough about it to just say gently caress off to the Astros and go elsewhere

Pay the man, Crane

Keuchel's interview after the WS where he just gushed about Brent Strom saving his career gives me hope we can hang onto him without giving out a massive contract

I always figured Keuchel and Springer were the odd men out and you hang on to Altuve and Correa for dear life, which is probably still true, but gently caress I'll be sad if Springer leaves

Big Mean Jerk
Jan 27, 2009

Well, of course I know him.
He's me.
I think holding onto Springer is more likely than Correa. Correa and Boras already said they had no intention of signing anything long term. Now, granted, there really wasn't any incentive for him to do that at the time, but I really think Correa in Dodgers blue or Boston red is an inevitability. Keuchel is also likely to leave. I think you can only hold onto Springer, Bregman, and maybe Altuve through his prime unless Crane opens those pockets.

Intruder
Mar 5, 2003

If Correa leaves I will be very sad even though he seems very much like a "me too" guy who needs moments to always include him in some way (like the way he's always the one to take off a teammate's helmet after a dinger)

If they let Correa leave they're dumb as hell even if keeping him requires offering him the biggest contract rather than relying on him staying with the team he's been with for six years

He's probably the best SS baseball has seen since A-Rod and might have been the MVP if he hadn't gotten injured

Intruder fucked around with this message at 19:07 on Nov 17, 2017

secular woods sex
Aug 1, 2000
I dispense wisdom by the gallon.
Hey Astros fans - since your owner didn't preclude trading for Stanton:

1) Do you think it's a good idea?

2) Who would you be willing to give up for him?

Intruder
Mar 5, 2003

I'd give up a package of Tucker/one of Martes or Whitley or Bukauskus/Moran and then maybe one or two lottery tickets

e: lol if the Marlins would want Moran back that is

Maybe JD Davis instead of Moran

Or maybe include Gurriel in the trade to reduce the racism quotient for the Astros, and as a Cuban in Miami he'd be quite popular

e2: If Stanton waived his player options or somehow converted them to team options I'd include two of the pitchers rather than one

Intruder fucked around with this message at 20:38 on Nov 17, 2017

Sab0921
Aug 2, 2004

This for my justices slingin' thangs, rib breakin' kings / Truck, necklace, robe, gavel and things / For the solicitors seein' them dissents spin and grin / That robe with the lace trim that win.
Astro Bros - if you have not ordered this, you should be banned immediately.

http://www.mlbshop.com/Houston_Astros_Footwear_2017_World_Series_Gear/Mens_Houston_Astros_Stance_2017_World_Series_Champions_Crew_Socks

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Intruder
Mar 5, 2003

What if I have three kids and don't want to spend $20 on a pair of socks especially with Christmas coming up

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