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Monathin
Sep 1, 2011

?????????
?

Your Personal Muse posted:

Why do you think scum jump back and forth on their reads?

Personally, I think scum will waffle much more on a vote, refusing to commit their thoughts one way or another. I was doing a lot of this when I was jumping back and forth between flerp (who I am much more convinced at this moment is scummy) to Asiina (who cleared my suspicious with a thorough counter-dunk), add to that some mistakes on my part (for example, I thought D1 would progress much faster than it actually did and wasn't looking at votefinder's deadline at the time), and I can see an easy case for me being scummy.

I will admit I don't necessarily think a NL on Day 1 in a 9-person game is sub-optimal/as shady (which came up in Asiina's read), but that's personally how I prefer to play the game. I hate mislynching someone because that feels like a big personal fuckup on my part, and I tend to err more on D1 lynches hurting town more than helping in the majority of cases.

That isn't how people play it here, and I realized arguing my point at the time would have probably just made me look more suspicious.

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Your Personal Muse
Oct 5, 2010

what a cool dude
You certainly are crazy self aware about your posting. I also don’t agree with your presumption that waffling people are scummy, since it’s much easier for scum to know alignment, since, you know, they’re scum. It makes me think that the only reason you think it’s scummy is because you yourself are scum.

flerp
Feb 25, 2014
iirc someone (quid pro quo i think) did the math and said that d1 lynches always favor town in small open setup games assuming pure randomness but i dont believe in math

Monathin
Sep 1, 2011

?????????
?

Your Personal Muse posted:

You certainly are crazy self aware about your posting. I also don’t agree with your presumption that waffling people are scummy, since it’s much easier for scum to know alignment, since, you know, they’re scum. It makes me think that the only reason you think it’s scummy is because you yourself are scum.

I mean, I guess? I had a day to look over my posts and could reasonably see the case being made against me even if it wasn't the -correct- case.

And I mean, of course scum know everyone's alignment, being scum, but I'd argue that makes the waffling more apparent. Scum know that anyone they attach to is in fact, town, but don't want to be caught trying to push a case on someone who later seems more townie because that will draw suspicion towards them. So they hedge bets, try and make 'reads' without saying anything of major substance (aka 'looks scummy'), or make multiple small reads that read like they're trying to make a case on a lot of people at once. It's all in the act of not letting people know how much they actually know. Sure, you'll get scum who go whole hog in setups and be brazen about their fake reads, but I'd argue those that go that route are more the exception rather than the rule.

Jen X
Sep 29, 2014

To bring light to the darkness, whether that darkness be ignorance, injustice, apathy, or stagnation.
D1 lynches are good because usually you can get info from the flip and then work backwards from it: knowing person X is scum, for instance, can make person Y’s singleminded driving of the lynch on them look much better (because turbobussing someone not under suspicion is generally bad scumplay).

flerp
Feb 25, 2014
yeah the problem w/ the d1 no lynch and bowmore nk is that this is basically d1 2.0 because we really got no info about anything

Quidthulhu
Dec 17, 2003

Stand down, men! It's only smooching!

We’re doing a lot of mafia theory and not a lot of scumhunting! I don’t like it!

Your Personal Muse
Oct 5, 2010

what a cool dude
Says Quid, adding to the conspicuous lack of scumhunting

Quidthulhu
Dec 17, 2003

Stand down, men! It's only smooching!

I haven't been posting all day though pretending I'm engaging with the game :allears:

Quidthulhu
Dec 17, 2003

Stand down, men! It's only smooching!

Man I wish we had a votefinder from EOD yesterday. I'ma try to figure out who was where.

Quidthulhu
Dec 17, 2003

Stand down, men! It's only smooching!

There wasn't a single votefinder post the entirety of D1? Ffffff

Your Personal Muse
Oct 5, 2010

what a cool dude

Quidthulhu posted:

I haven't been posting all day though pretending I'm engaging with the game :allears:

What. I was questioning Mona and responded to flerp RE: Gene. What is wrong with you this game? You’ve had this weird thing about me.

Jen X
Sep 29, 2014

To bring light to the darkness, whether that darkness be ignorance, injustice, apathy, or stagnation.
So...does anyone have any thoughts? At all?

I guess I'll ask some questions.

Quid, what are your thoughts on YPM after arguing with him on and off for a lot of D1?

Asiina, you just kinda went away; anything to add about people that aren't Monathin?

Flerp, you've been hanging out on the margins, what do you think of Quid, YPM, Keane, and Monathin?

Monathin, what are your thoughts on any given 3 people here?

Monathin
Sep 1, 2011

?????????
?

GeneX posted:

Monathin, what are your thoughts on any given 3 people here?

I'm about to head to bed, but I'll put down some thoughts for posterity after reading back through the end of the first day.

- I'm still fairly convince YPM is town. They don't seem to be playing around in any measure of scumhunting, and are grinning people pretty well within margins.
- My thoughts on Quid are similar, but slipping perhaps into a little bit more unsure territory, more on that with my actual "fairly confident" reads, which are:
- My current gut feeling is that Flerp and Hal are both scum. They've both been on the fringes of discussion but haven't contributed to it in any meaningful way, and have not answered questions/suspicions asked by myself or Quid with what I feel are satisfactory answers, and I feel as though Quid's case on Hal is still probably the strongest scumread we've got.
- The way Quid's acting right now has me much more uneasy. If Hal isn't scum, I'd be much more inclined to think Quid is.

So I guess if we're gonna lay votes on the table I'd go Flerp, Hal, Quid in that order, unless other people are echoing my hunches on the "Hal OR Quid are scum, but not both" camp.

Monathin
Sep 1, 2011

?????????
?

Grilling, not grinning, words are hard.

Quidthulhu
Dec 17, 2003

Stand down, men! It's only smooching!

Your Personal Muse posted:

What. I was questioning Mona and responded to flerp RE: Gene. What is wrong with you this game? You’ve had this weird thing about me.

I wasn't really referring to you but ok.

I'm too tired to reread and want to watch a Star War. I'll catch up on this tomorrow and do some full indepth reading. Promise!

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

Quidthulhu posted:

Man I wish we had a votefinder from EOD yesterday. I'ma try to figure out who was where.

Me, asiina and I think Gene were voting mona, mona was voting someone, I think you were voting someone, and I don't think anyone else was voting.

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

Monathin posted:

- My current gut feeling is that Flerp and Hal are both scum. They've both been on the fringes of discussion but haven't contributed to it in any meaningful way, and have not answered questions/suspicions asked by myself or Quid with what I feel are satisfactory answers, and I feel as though Quid's case on Hal is still probably the strongest scumread we've got.

LOL quids case that I supposedly was inconsistent on my read of you?

Monathin
Sep 1, 2011

?????????
?

Hal Incandenza posted:

LOL quids case that I supposedly was inconsistent on my read of you?

More specifically that you were inconsistent on not liking Keane's read on me vs Asiina's read on me when they were literally The Same Exact Read, but yes.

Your Personal Muse
Oct 5, 2010

what a cool dude

Hal Incandenza posted:

Me, asiina and I think Gene were voting mona, mona was voting someone, I think you were voting someone, and I don't think anyone else was voting.

I was voting gene

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

Monathin posted:

More specifically that you were inconsistent on not liking Keane's read on me vs Asiina's read on me when they were literally The Same Exact Read, but yes.

So my entire point about tone, etc... meant nothing to you? Asiina and Keane aren’t the same person and they didn’t say the exact same thing or approach it in the same way. I made that very clear in my initial point on Asiina (that I actually did not agree with her case on you) and that I was saying what I said based on the feel of their posts and not the content.

But maybe you just don’t get me man

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

Your Personal Muse posted:

I was voting gene

You’re a good man YPM

Your Personal Muse
Oct 5, 2010

what a cool dude

Hal Incandenza posted:

You’re a good man YPM

Thanks bud your approval is the whole reason I play mafias

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

Your Personal Muse posted:

Thanks bud your approval is the whole reason I play mafias

Ditto

Your Personal Muse
Oct 5, 2010

what a cool dude
Hey Hal, why are you not as gungho about Gene as I am? Gene is basically Mona without the excuse of being a newbie

CCKeane
Jan 28, 2008

my shit posts don't die, they multiply

I think I feel better about Mona today?

CCKeane
Jan 28, 2008

my shit posts don't die, they multiply

Like Mona's posts and reactions feel alright.

I'm liking Asiina and YPM as town.

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

Your Personal Muse posted:

Hey Hal, why are you not as gungho about Gene as I am? Gene is basically Mona without the excuse of being a newbie

Gene is on my list, I think he’s much more suspicious than Mona at least

flerp
Feb 25, 2014

GeneX posted:

Flerp, you've been hanging out on the margins, what do you think of Quid, YPM, Keane, and Monathin?

quid feels a lil less uhhhh feisty i think is the right word and its a lil weird that quid popped into d2 with basically 3 posts that said "hey no one is scum hunting" w/ 0 scum hunting in them (i know ypm brought this up but its still weird 2 me). i think im null on quid rn, but his playstyle, while less bombastic as usual, makes me lean towards slight town.

ypm is pinging me a bit. hes really aggressive and feels like hes trying to steer the conversation and its giving me bad vibes. tho tbf i get bad vibes from ypm in like every game so it could just be that his playstyle pings me but im getting not good feelings.

keane i feel is scummy. he hasnt done much. most of his post histories is his joke phase and then complaining about not being active (his only real case was on mona but apparently he's changed his mind). id like to know who he thinks is scum, since hes made a fair bit of town reads now.

mona im not sure about. i think he's really self conscious (which is one of my normal go-tos for finding scum tbh), but the problem is that self consciousness is as much of a tell of scumminess as it is a tell of a newbie.

CCKeane
Jan 28, 2008

my shit posts don't die, they multiply

flerp posted:

quid feels a lil less uhhhh feisty i think is the right word and its a lil weird that quid popped into d2 with basically 3 posts that said "hey no one is scum hunting" w/ 0 scum hunting in them (i know ypm brought this up but its still weird 2 me). i think im null on quid rn, but his playstyle, while less bombastic as usual, makes me lean towards slight town.

ypm is pinging me a bit. hes really aggressive and feels like hes trying to steer the conversation and its giving me bad vibes. tho tbf i get bad vibes from ypm in like every game so it could just be that his playstyle pings me but im getting not good feelings.

keane i feel is scummy. he hasnt done much. most of his post histories is his joke phase and then complaining about not being active (his only real case was on mona but apparently he's changed his mind). id like to know who he thinks is scum, since hes made a fair bit of town reads now.

mona im not sure about. i think he's really self conscious (which is one of my normal go-tos for finding scum tbh), but the problem is that self consciousness is as much of a tell of scumminess as it is a tell of a newbie.

You and Hal.

Merry Christmas.

flerp
Feb 25, 2014
god bless ur soul

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

CCKeane posted:

You and Hal.

Merry Christmas.

Awwww thanks I needed a new friend!

Quidthulhu
Dec 17, 2003

Stand down, men! It's only smooching!

CCKeane posted:

You and Hal.

Merry Christmas.

Yeah, I think I might agree with this just as a gut read, although I am also not liking that Asiina vanished.

Keane, what about Asiina is making you feel good about her?

Asiina
Apr 26, 2011

No going back
Grimey Drawer
I caught up, I've had a very busy day.

The next few days are going to be more busy.

Signing up for a game was probably a mistake.

That said, I kinda feel like many people can be scum.

Mona was saying lies D1 and has fully admitted to it, but still feels like self-conscious scum.

Quid coming in and being like "oh no, there's no content while providing no content is bad."

Hal is always scum so he's probably scum in this game.

Gene maybe scum? I'm not sure what the case on him is.

flerp and Keane feel okay to me.

YPM I have no opinions I don't think. He's aggressive but that's not unusual for him.

The only thing I can say with any real confidence is that I don't believe Mona and Gene are scum together. Between the D1 argument and the fact that bowmore died which means at least one person on the scum team is a nice person who knows that it's a cool thing to kill lurkers, I highly doubt it's both of them.

Quidthulhu
Dec 17, 2003

Stand down, men! It's only smooching!

Hurmmmm.

Asiina
Apr 26, 2011

No going back
Grimey Drawer
Don't you hurmmmm me, squidnose!

CCKeane
Jan 28, 2008

my shit posts don't die, they multiply

Quidthulhu posted:

Yeah, I think I might agree with this just as a gut read, although I am also not liking that Asiina vanished.

Keane, what about Asiina is making you feel good about her?

Asiina's case on Mona was absolutely brilliant, one of the towniest cases I've ever read.

Quidthulhu
Dec 17, 2003

Stand down, men! It's only smooching!

Ok, gonna actually do a reread and also manually recreate the votecount from EOD.

I am musing now if maybe Gene throwing out a bowmore poke without commiting to voting him for being the mega-lurker was because he subconsciously knew bowmore would flip town. Hurm.

Quidthulhu
Dec 17, 2003

Stand down, men! It's only smooching!

EOD Votecount:

Mona (4): Asiina, Keane, Gene, Hal
Hal (2): Quid, Mona
Gene (1): YPM

Not Voting: bowmore, flerp. Both did not vote all day.

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Quidthulhu
Dec 17, 2003

Stand down, men! It's only smooching!

One thing I noticed during my manually counting & moving votes is that Gene moved from Hal, who he voted as a "poke" to get him to provide content, to Keane, for exactly the same reason. That strikes me as weird when both of them had provided case work throughout the day. I'm gonna look at Gene in a vacuum because I want to see if he provided any case work or if he just was potentially faking "reasons" for poo poo as above.

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