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ive never succesfully jerked off for 24 straight hours thank you cig for making this possible  
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Dec 21, 2017 23:29
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Dear CIG employee monitoring this thread: It was a deep cover goon agent that sabotaged the build. Please commence internal witch hunt.
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Dec 21, 2017 23:30
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Redit have just lowered the bar goddamn they are loving stupid
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Dec 21, 2017 23:30
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PederP posted:Why does everyone think he was being literate? He's using metaphors to say it wasn't lack of preparation but multiple unexpected issues with the build being broken. Of course he's deleting them, the only way to correct the backers who think he's being literal is to spell out in big letters that the "game" is B R O K E N. I'm beginning to suspect somebody there isn't literate. Lando said, "You're assuming all those things didn't happen. They did, and more." He's directly instructing people to read his comments about water main breaks and car accidents literally. Also, normally, when someone tells me they had an issue with a car accident, or water main break, I don't assume they're being metaphorical.
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Dec 21, 2017 23:30
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"I have a brain tumor" "Metaphorically" Lol
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Dec 21, 2017 23:32
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Thoatse posted:FLUD 
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Dec 21, 2017 23:33
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XK posted:I'm beginning to suspect somebody there isn't literate. He put it in quotation marks. Yeah, it was clumsy communication, but I'm pretty spergy and I saw the metaphor.
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Dec 21, 2017 23:34
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I am not posting this now - it is a metaphor
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Dec 21, 2017 23:35
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Everything is fine.
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Dec 21, 2017 23:35
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peter gabriel posted:Redit have just lowered the bar goddamn they are loving stupid Mods, please probate this cat till he posts more pictures of his son's awesome birthday cake.
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Dec 21, 2017 23:35
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Star Citizen is a metaphor for a computer game. Star Citizen: The kind of misunderstanding that happens often on the Internet Rad Russian fucked around with this message at 23:42 on Dec 21, 2017 |
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Dec 21, 2017 23:36
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TheAgent posted:lol the only way there would be a code freeze at CIG is if they y servers were left out in a blizzard lol And if they had any code to freeze. I don't think Crytek demo reskins count
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Dec 21, 2017 23:36
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PederP posted:He put it in quotation marks. Yeah, it was clumsy communication, but I'm pretty spergy and I saw the metaphor. A few peole here are broke brained from reading Derek's blogs. Friends don't let friends read Derek's blogs.
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Dec 21, 2017 23:37
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TheAgent posted:"I have a brain tumor" 
XK fucked around with this message at 23:40 on Dec 21, 2017 |
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Dec 21, 2017 23:37
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What's our next caper, goonies? The reddit detectives pinned us as the masterminds who caused a flood... For our next scheme, how about we... *wrings hands* ...plant bugs in their code
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Dec 21, 2017 23:39
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TheAgent posted:"I have a brain tumor" ironically, this is their stance on "actual gameplay" its a metaphor you fuding goon
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Dec 21, 2017 23:40
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Its all just a marketing gag. Before I wasn't really interested in the stream. Now I'm going to watch the poo poo out of it tomorrow.
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Dec 21, 2017 23:41
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Districtcourt Delivery of Service DDoS confirmed
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Dec 21, 2017 23:41
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Star Citizen: It's a game, metaphorically speaking
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Dec 21, 2017 23:41
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And by that I mean I will watch 2 minutes before I'll get incredibly bored.
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Dec 21, 2017 23:42
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ANALYSIS OF SMALL TRACKER MOVES In view of the Crytek lawsuit and the possible imminent demise of the funding tracker, I'm presenting an analysis that I put off for quite a while. This post is the third in the (very infrequently updated) Theoretical Cetology series. Previous entries are here and here. I know many people believe the tracker is faked, but irrespective of that issue, one can still try to figure out what the tracker is actually telling us. My initial motivation in looking at the funding tracker was to try to tie together the three F's (Fleet, Fans, and Funds) to get a better sense of who was buying what. The hourly scraped data maintained by Nehkara on Google Docs is not well suited to this, because so many transactions get lumped together per hour that it's difficult or impossible to tease out the individual contributions. Therefore I used scraped data with a 5 minute update rate, which strikes a balance between high update rate and not being rude. As it turned out, the three F's are updated on different schedules and possibly with differing time lags, so it remains impractical to do the dreamed-of joint analysis. However, it turns out that the Funds data (i.e. the money counter) is updated in real time, or close enough to real time from the perspective of a 5-minute scrape. This tells us how much cash is going into the tracker at each 5 minute interval. An excerpt from a typical day is shown below. The table shows the size of each tracker move in dollars, and the number of times a move of that size was observed.  A few interesting facts immediately jump out:
As the example of $105 illustrates, a tracker move may be composed of multiple smaller transactions. As long as the typical 5-minute interval does not contain "too many" transactions, we may be able to infer the individual transaction sizes, at least in a probabilistic sense. The frequent $5 moves are particularly interesting because they are not likely to be composed of smaller transactions and because there isn't anything exciting on the store that costs $5. I believe that they are probably mostly CCU activity, possibly related to the grey market, but I welcome better explanations. My assumption is that the tracker is honest in the sense that applied store credit is not shown as additional revenue. This would allow us to see transactions of all sizes (due to varying amounts of store credit being applied) even if the store has no item at a particular price. SELECTING THE DATA SET To keep from having too many transactions thus making the data too hard to analyze, I used a crude proxy for non-sale days by taking all days with daily funding total < $60K. This gives a total of 116,111 data points from "quiet" or "typical" days. The method I will apply below relies heavily on the assumption that tracker moves are round numbers, i.e., multiples of $5. Thus, data points that do not fit this assumption must be excluded, leaving 108,621 data points remaining (which represents a loss of 6.5% of the data). Interestingly, non-round tracker moves tend to arrive bunched together. The below plot shows the percentage of non-round moves in a rolling temporal window, restricted to data points from quiet days.  Part of the cause may be temporally limited availability of items, such as the Squadron 42 Military Cap, that aren't multiples of $5. As for the fractional dollar amounts, the only hypothesis I can come up with is if an amount of store credit is somehow acquired untaxed but then has VAT taken out of it later. Partially defraying the cost of an item with the resulting store credit could give rise to strange transaction sizes. ESTIMATING TRANSACTION RATES To account for the effect of multiple transactions, I formulated a probability model for the data as a price-weighted sum of independent Poisson random variables. Going to the store and clicking on "Extras" shows CCUs valued at every multiple of $5 up to about $300, so I set the maximum allowable transaction size to $300. I then estimated the parameters of the model using maximum likelihood. The round transactions assumption is required to make the fitting process tractable; we can apply a crude correction for the exclusion of the non-round transactions afterward. Below we show the raw histogram of tracker moves.  The result of the fitting process is an average transaction rate for each transaction size, i.e., the average number of transactions of each size, per hour.  The dominant effect is the spikes at $45 and $60, reaching 4.2 and 5.0 transactions/hour, respectively. If we assume that every one of these sales is a starter game package, and that every game package is sold to a new customer, this means 9.2 commandos are buying into Star Citizen per hour outside of special events, or about 80,000 commandos per year. By contrast, the "fans" number has increased by 237,325 so far in 2017, with no major recruiting events to speak of. There is about 1 transaction per hour for every "small" transaction size below $45. Unless this is CCU activity, I'm not sure what it could represent. Are people buying $5 skins and UEC chits? The estimated average daily revenue from starter packages is $11,700, versus an average daily revenue (for the quiet days used in this analysis) of roughly $39,500. Similarly, the average daily revenue from small transactions of $40 or less is $4000. The majority of funding, about $20K, comes from transactions that are $65 or larger. The average daily total implied by our model is about $37K. Using a crude 7% correction for the excluded data points gives an average daily total of $39,800 which is fairly close to the true average of $39,500. How literally should we interpret the fitted parameters? I think the inferred rate of starter packages, as well as the small transactions, is roughly accurate. As price increases from there, we should expect a general decline in the frequency of transactions, but not as steep a decline as the model implies. You can see an artifact of this where the model has boosted the rates of transactions near $300 to try to match the heavier tails of the actual data. IS THE TRACKER TOO STABLE? There are reasons to expect this model to underestimate the frequency of very large transactions, meaning that it will underestimate daily variability. That being said, the daily standard deviation of funding implied by the fitted model is $2,040, which implies that we would expect to see successive daily totals to be within about $5800 of each other 95% of the time. (Edit: this statement is imprecise; what I should have said is that we should expect the daily totals to be within about $2900 of the long term average 95% of the time.) A quick eyeballing suggests that the real data is indeed more variable than the model estimate. This is unsurprising both because there are dynamic influences on the store activity that we do not model, and because we would expect overdispersion even in the absence of such effects. A better answer would involve looking at autocorrelation, but 
boviscopophobic fucked around with this message at 07:02 on Dec 22, 2017 |
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Dec 21, 2017 23:42
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And by that I mean lol what stream, they got nothin
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Dec 21, 2017 23:43
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broken wrists, busted pipes, belayed livestreams
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Dec 21, 2017 23:43
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Lladre posted:Mods, please probate this cat till he posts more pictures of his son's awesome birthday cake.   Boo ya!
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Dec 21, 2017 23:45
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You better watch out You better not cry Better not pout I'm telling you why Skadden Santa Claus is coming to town He's making a list And checking it twice Gonna find out Who's naughty and nice Skadden Claus is coming to town He sees you when you're been leaking He knows when you're a fraud He knows if you've been bad or good So be good for goodness sake! 3.O! You better watch out! You better not lie Better not release I'm telling you why Skadden Claus is coming to town Skadden Claus is coming to town Kosumo fucked around with this message at 00:19 on Dec 22, 2017 |
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Dec 21, 2017 23:45
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PederP posted:He put it in quotation marks. Yeah, it was clumsy communication, but I'm pretty spergy and I saw the metaphor. I saw it as maybe a metaphor, until he explicitly said that it did happen. I recall from previous posts that you're, Finnish, I think it was, so maybe there's a second language issue? To me, it was clear that he stated it was a thing that actually happened.
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Dec 21, 2017 23:45
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I wouldn't be surprised if the non whole contributions are from other countries and being converted to USD.
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Dec 21, 2017 23:47
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TheAgent posted:you can come drink with us friend, I'm going to have a couple of my porn actress friends dress up like the nuns from GoT with a loving shame bell and we can tailgate the CIG office getting wasted as they continue to yell "shame!" Across the street loving lmao
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Dec 21, 2017 23:47
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Star Citizen: Clownfiesta Impossible Game.
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Dec 21, 2017 23:48
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peter gabriel posted:
Your lad is a genius asking for that for his cake, an actual genius
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Dec 21, 2017 23:50
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boviscopophobic posted:pure statistical gold. You're too good for this thread. Awesome work dude!
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Dec 21, 2017 23:50
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So long as the holiday stream delay doesn't impact the scheduled release of Sunk Cost Galaxy, all is well.
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Dec 21, 2017 23:50
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SomethingJones posted:Your lad is a genius asking for that for his cake, an actual genius Gushing parent mode engaged: Yeah he is unique, I'm amazed daily that he is mine 
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Dec 21, 2017 23:54
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CrazyLoon posted:If any kind of injunction gets put into play, I would laugh so hard. "Let's have a holiday stream promoting Chris' baby with more bullshit and...what? What do you mean we'll go to jail if we show any of it now?! How are we supposed to milk the whales?!" what if they put up a jpeg in a fireplace with a fire burning for 2 hours like those christmas day lovely things.
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Dec 21, 2017 23:56
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Star citizen : water mess this has turned out to be Star citizen: it never rains it pours,then it crashes,then you break your wrists Star citizen : there's "crashing" then there's "crashing" also "cashing in"
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Dec 21, 2017 23:56
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intardnation posted:what if they put up a jpeg in a fireplace with a fire burning for 2 hours like those christmas day lovely things. It would be a bit on the nose
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Dec 21, 2017 23:56
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Brazilianpeanutwar posted:Star citizen : poo poo
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Dec 21, 2017 23:59
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Sorry I'm late. I had a car accident. You had a car accident?! No, I was only being metaphorical. Anyway, I can't stay long, I have to get back to my water main break.
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Dec 21, 2017 23:59
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Thoatse posted:FLUD Just taking a moment here to appreciate this delightful post
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Dec 22, 2017 00:00
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| # ? Apr 26, 2024 19:25 |
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boviscopophobic posted:ANALYSIS OF SMALL TRACKER MOVES Can you determine if the large purchases (completionist package and javelin combo) are occurring at a set interval and over what time period it has been going on?
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Dec 22, 2017 00:01
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