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Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.
I literally have been asleep, woke up to see the flip / battle arrangements, and am just posting this without having read anything and then am going back to sleep:

Read my cases from start of d3, the scum is Moat / is / Hats

Ok gnite

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Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

Good night!

Kashuno
Oct 9, 2012

Where the hell is my SWORD?
Grimey Drawer
I don’t regret lynching AA

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.
Pretty sure that Mona/YPM is a slapfight and that Moat just got his flavor from a different healer (IS?) on his scumteam.

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.
Like Moat doesn’t claim healer, says “I did something” to tobbs when asked (instead of claiming or even breadcrumbing it), and then admits he’s a healer after KB says he doesn’t want us targeting healers?

I don’t even think it’s a stretch, I think the most logical explanation for that is that Moat is in a scumdoc with another healer.

Kashuno
Oct 9, 2012

Where the hell is my SWORD?
Grimey Drawer
In case I die I am going to say this.

The scum are the ones we aren't thinking about

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

Kashuno posted:

In case I die I am going to say this.

The scum are the ones we aren't thinking about

Thank god I am always thinking about you

Kashuno
Oct 9, 2012

Where the hell is my SWORD?
Grimey Drawer
Hal come clean.

You're scum aren't you?

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

by Fluffdaddy
Soag is a chicken, Soag is a chicken! BWWWAAAAAAAAK, BWWWWAKK, BWWWAAKK!

Let is be forever known that the Diamond Dog won't take a shot at the guy who led the train on a scum Quid and then shot the poo poo out of Xad.

I guess if you other guys in battle kill a couple of Texans, they'll leave you alone too.

Kashuno
Oct 9, 2012

Where the hell is my SWORD?
Grimey Drawer
Bif is pretty desperate putting herself back in battle already lmao

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

by Fluffdaddy
Bif it doesn't matter what you think of Soag. It only matters that he's not going to be attacking the man in battle who has killed the most Texans.

And that will forever mark him as a chicken. He might have some copyright issues, but I think he needs to change his name to Droopy Dog.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

by Fluffdaddy
Or maybe Zirconium Dog since he sure as hell ain't as hard as no Diamond.

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.

The Lord of Hats posted:

Also, reread Moat today. Their day 1 was pretty unremarkable, laying down an early case and vote on pmush, and riding that out through the day without hedging. On day two though, their reaction to the Quid case is kind of weird to me.

This is part of a significantly larger post (the rest of which doesn't address Quid at all), and Moat is hardly the only person to say "Hm, I want to hear from Quid first", but I'm just no liking it here. From there, Moat starts pushing a theory that there was a second scum, in the back row:

And then, when MMT asks him for his top scum read, at a time when Quid has 8 votes on him, we get:

It just doesn't feel that genuine to me. It feels like Moat spent the day trying to tie other people to Quid, and then when that didn't really get traction, tossed a vote onto the pile and peaced out for the day. I'm comfortable with my vote where it is.

Hats, can you talk me through the evolution of your opinion on Moat this game?

Moat, same question for Hats.

Podima
Nov 4, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
:cheers: Just a bit over an hour left to submit Preliminary actions! :cheers:

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

All round mafia nice guy
I do want to point out they are planning to focus fire on YPM and Hal.

Venom soag is supposed to be on me, but he already said his ranged attack is weak AND he's taken enough damage to probably suffer the maimed penalty, or at least wounded.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

by Fluffdaddy
Compatriots in battle, today we go fight at Palo Alto and we must defeat the vile Texans so we can move farther into their land!

As you take the field, remember that Ma is a chicken and a bad tactician! Here I stand in the back row; slightly healed, but still damaged from last nights battle and all Ma can do is tell people to avoid me in order to target you. Some of you may die in battle tonight, but you should be able to take comfort in the fact that you did your best and died valiantly in battle and just remember one thing as you pass on into the next life. Ma is afraid of me! Remember, that friends!

MA IS AFRAID!

The Lord of Hats
Aug 22, 2010

Hello, yes! Is being very good day for posting, no?
I didn't really read Moat in detail at all D1 and D2--I was, admittedly, not as engaged with the game then as I am now. I responded to a theory that Moat put out there regarding N2's battle results (that someone, I think it was you, later stated as well, regarding whether the enemy targeted TMM). But then I saw Moat pushing hard on Truth Quark, so I read TQ to get a sense of that case for myself. I actually agreed with Moat at first, and had a post written up saying as much, but then I stepped away from my computer, had a "wait a second" moment, and checked the timestamps on TQ's posts, and pretty much swung around to the opposite conclusion--that TQ was town and that Moat was pushing a bad case. That was pretty late at night, so I resolved to read Moat the next day. That's when KB made his post saying that Moat hadn't given a gift like he'd said he had, so I dropped a vote before going to bed.

The next day, I read Moat, and his interactions around the Quid vote stood out to me, so I posted the case on that, and felt comfortable with my vote where it was. As discussion went on a bit, mostly around the heal claim, I misremembered and thought that it had been Moat that had prodded Tobbs about the 'gift', which would have been really suspicious, but when I fact-checked myself it was the other way around. I still felt comfortable voting Moat given his weirdness on the Quid vote, and because the alternative was AA--and the late case against AA I really wasn't a fan of.

Now, though, I've received a heal that I pretty much have to assume is from Moat, because it would have only mattered because the two of us both botched updating our actions--I didn't change my target away from AA before the hammer went through, and Moat had left a heal on me and then peaced out for the day. I don't think scum would have made that sequence of plays if they were trying to get Moat town cred, as opposed to just having the heal follow KB's instructions. So I'm actually wavering on my case now, although I know that's just one datapoint.

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

All round mafia nice guy
I'm glad you're on our side peramene!

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

Tobbs Gnawed posted:

I do want to point out they are planning to focus fire on YPM and Hal.

Venom soag is supposed to be on me, but he already said his ranged attack is weak AND he's taken enough damage to probably suffer the maimed penalty, or at least wounded.

Yup please read Bifs battle instructions and think about your own in light of that. Of course reminder that you have to take Bifs actions into account as well.

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

All round mafia nice guy

King Burgundy posted:

Yup please read Bifs battle instructions and think about your own in light of that. Of course reminder that you have to take Bifs actions into account as well.

Yeah. If this is a proving ground for Soag though, multiple attacks will defeat that purpose.

Truth Quark
Mar 21, 2010

:ffg:
EAT THE DONUTS
:ffg:
Am I wrong in thinking that YPM being actively targeted by Bif means he most likely isn't scum?

Monathin
Sep 1, 2011

?????????
?

Truth Quark posted:

Am I wrong in thinking that YPM being actively targeted by Bif means he most likely isn't scum?

Proof'll be in the pudding, kid figures.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

Tobbs Gnawed posted:

Yeah. If this is a proving ground for Soag though, multiple attacks will defeat that purpose.

Yeah, don't change your targeting priorities because of this. Just think about if there is something different you should be doing in regards to buffs/debuffs/etc. Living is still the priority. Bif is still the gold standard if you can hit her after that. She's hiding from us in the back for a reason.

Tobbs Gnawed
Apr 4, 2007

All round mafia nice guy

King Burgundy posted:

Yeah, don't change your targeting priorities because of this. Just think about if there is something different you should be doing in regards to buffs/debuffs/etc. Living is still the priority. Bif is still the gold standard if you can hit her after that. She's hiding from us in the back for a reason.

I'm very hard to kill, but yeah, may go back to flicking Bif in the nose.

SalTheBard
Jan 26, 2005

I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!

Fallen Rib
Good luck friends!

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.

The Lord of Hats posted:

I didn't really read Moat in detail at all D1 and D2--I was, admittedly, not as engaged with the game then as I am now. I responded to a theory that Moat put out there regarding N2's battle results (that someone, I think it was you, later stated as well, regarding whether the enemy targeted TMM). But then I saw Moat pushing hard on Truth Quark, so I read TQ to get a sense of that case for myself. I actually agreed with Moat at first, and had a post written up saying as much, but then I stepped away from my computer, had a "wait a second" moment, and checked the timestamps on TQ's posts, and pretty much swung around to the opposite conclusion--that TQ was town and that Moat was pushing a bad case. That was pretty late at night, so I resolved to read Moat the next day. That's when KB made his post saying that Moat hadn't given a gift like he'd said he had, so I dropped a vote before going to bed.

The next day, I read Moat, and his interactions around the Quid vote stood out to me, so I posted the case on that, and felt comfortable with my vote where it was. As discussion went on a bit, mostly around the heal claim, I misremembered and thought that it had been Moat that had prodded Tobbs about the 'gift', which would have been really suspicious, but when I fact-checked myself it was the other way around. I still felt comfortable voting Moat given his weirdness on the Quid vote, and because the alternative was AA--and the late case against AA I really wasn't a fan of.

Now, though, I've received a heal that I pretty much have to assume is from Moat, because it would have only mattered because the two of us both botched updating our actions--I didn't change my target away from AA before the hammer went through, and Moat had left a heal on me and then peaced out for the day. I don't think scum would have made that sequence of plays if they were trying to get Moat town cred, as opposed to just having the heal follow KB's instructions. So I'm actually wavering on my case now, although I know that's just one datapoint.

So Moat's claim and decision to withhold his claim didn't factor into your read at all?

The Lord of Hats
Aug 22, 2010

Hello, yes! Is being very good day for posting, no?

Murmur Twin posted:

So Moat's claim and decision to withhold his claim didn't factor into your read at all?

I mean, it did, because it's at best bad play. But I wouldn't say that was ever really the foundation of my case.

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.

The Lord of Hats posted:

Now, though, I've received a heal that I pretty much have to assume is from Moat, because it would have only mattered because the two of us both botched updating our actions--I didn't change my target away from AA before the hammer went through, and Moat had left a heal on me and then peaced out for the day. I don't think scum would have made that sequence of plays if they were trying to get Moat town cred, as opposed to just having the heal follow KB's instructions. So I'm actually wavering on my case now, although I know that's just one datapoint.

Fair enough.

Just for the sake of being upfront: I happen to believe that "scum claims healer, other scum verifies healer to give them town cred" is a sequence that they would, and are, trying to play.

Added question for Moat: Why'd you choose to heal Hats? Did you consider any of the other hurt players before landing on him?

The Lord of Hats
Aug 22, 2010

Hello, yes! Is being very good day for posting, no?
Also, MMT, to ask for some homework in return, I'd ask that you do for me what you did for AA--step back and try and do a clean read. If you still think I'm scum after that, then sure, I can respect that, but I feel like you're tunneling right now and making some iffy arguments as a result.

Kashuno
Oct 9, 2012

Where the hell is my SWORD?
Grimey Drawer

Truth Quark posted:

Am I wrong in thinking that YPM being actively targeted by Bif means he most likely isn't scum?

Absolutely wrong, yes.

Truth Quark
Mar 21, 2010

:ffg:
EAT THE DONUTS
:ffg:

Kashuno posted:

Absolutely wrong, yes.

Well since you know everything, is this because Bif doesn't actually know the identity of the scum team or because you just assume all such conclusions are wrong?

Kashuno
Oct 9, 2012

Where the hell is my SWORD?
Grimey Drawer
Bif could

A) Know she won't kill YPM and use it for cred
B) Protect YPM
C) Lie

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

by Fluffdaddy

The Lord of Hats posted:

Also, MMT, to ask for some homework in return, I'd ask that you do for me what you did for AA--step back and try and do a clean read. If you still think I'm scum after that, then sure, I can respect that, but I feel like you're tunneling right now and making some iffy arguments as a result.

And MMT, on top of this explain how a scum Hats claims damage prior to knowing that cat used some kind of damage shield?

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

I have a hypothetical question that I want you all to be thinking about.

Take a step back and just let it simmer.

If you were on the scum team in a soldiers game, wouldn't you want to get all the healers out at all costs, even if you had a healer on your team? That way the other sides battle damage would actually start to take it's toll, your NK's would start to work, etc.

Doesn't it seem weird to you that most of the thread is focused on our healers as being the scum? And we've now flipped one, who was not?

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

by Fluffdaddy

Kashuno posted:

Bif could

A) Know she won't kill YPM and use it for cred
B) Protect YPM
C) Lie

But she did assign like 2 people to each attack hal and YPM

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

Monathin posted:

Proof'll be in the pudding, kid figures.

This is my take btw on the TQ question. It should be obvious after this fight.

Truth Quark
Mar 21, 2010

:ffg:
EAT THE DONUTS
:ffg:
Well A can't be true because two way communication is not a thing, so she doesn't know anything we don't about YPM's hp and abilities. B doesn't make sense because why waste resources not killing the enemy when you're behind. C also doesn't make sense because why would you lie to your own soldiers while secretly wanting them to hit other targets?

It just seems like the two simplest explanations are 1) Bif doesn't know the identity of the scum team so it's a null tell or 2) she does and YPM is almost certainly town as a result of this attack.

This argument is moot if YPM dies tonight obviously.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

Reminder that someone she is assigning in thread, could be her remaining advisor and being given different instructions. So as with my previous instructions. Be careful.

Truth Quark
Mar 21, 2010

:ffg:
EAT THE DONUTS
:ffg:

King Burgundy posted:

Reminder that someone she is assigning in thread, could be her remaining advisor and being given different instructions. So as with my previous instructions. Be careful.

This however is useful information, thanks.

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Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.

The Lord of Hats posted:

Also, MMT, to ask for some homework in return, I'd ask that you do for me what you did for AA--step back and try and do a clean read. If you still think I'm scum after that, then sure, I can respect that, but I feel like you're tunneling right now and making some iffy arguments as a result.

I admit that I'm mostly just posting off the cuff and will do a full re-read during the battle phase. I'm a huge Hats fan - trust me, I want you to be town!

For what it's worth, I think/plan to argue that the most productive course of action is to execute Moat tomorrow and then make judgments on whether he flips medic or not. If he flips town medic I'd almost certainly reassess my opinion of you. But right now the information that we have that supposedly makes Moat town (a loose interpretation regarding Tobbs getting healed and Hats' word that he got healed) isn't enough to change my mind there.

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