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Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

ISIS could recruit fatties because they never have to get outside of a Toyota Hilux, so I doubt we'll have any problems.

is abu hajaar more or less competent that the standard american conscript i wonder

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paul_soccer10
Mar 28, 2016

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
What is Turkey's pretext to invade Afrin???

And doesn't Israel completely control Golan, so if Assad went into it they might consider that "agressive"

lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!

paul_soccer10 posted:

What is Turkey's pretext to invade Afrin???

terror

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

Jose posted:

is abu hajaar more or less competent that the standard american conscript i wonder

Their primary purpose is to be cannon fodder anyway, so it's equal. It's the hardcore veterans who are always the most valuable shock troops, not the volunteers from Belgium or the guys you press ganged for loitering in the wrong place & time.

paul_soccer10 posted:

What is Turkey's pretext to invade Afrin???

And doesn't Israel completely control Golan, so if Assad went into it they might consider that "agressive"

Turkey doesn't consider YPG to be distinct from the PKK, therefore Afrin is a terrorist statelet and needs to be pacified.

Israel does have a commanding control of the Golan Heights, but there are militias and ISIS which control territories along the border of the Golan - and when the state retakes those territories by moving in their forces then tensions are gonna get high.

Pener Kropoopkin has issued a correction as of 13:52 on Jan 23, 2018

Fallen Hamprince
Nov 12, 2016



quote:

You know, it can be difficult to remain true to your deepest convictions and live life on your own terms. But I think we can all agree, it’s always better to be yourself and follow your dreams rather than end up with a lifetime of regret for all the things you didn’t do. It’s easy to lose sight of what’s really important, and those are the times when you have to turn inward, to an unshakeable place deep within you, and remind yourself that worrying about what other people think of your war crimes is no way to spend your all-too-short time on this planet.

It’s human nature to try to please people, but you shouldn’t let others make your decisions for you. If you rely too much on the validation of others, you may never feel confident enough to open up that small business, go skydiving, or authorize sarin gas attacks against your own people. You have to do these things for yourself and no one else, and if mass atrocities are what’s truly in your heart, why should it matter what other people say?

Look at it this way: If you spend all your time fretting over what someone thinks about the genocidal acts you’re trying to commit, you’ll never get around to committing them!

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

https://twitter.com/ZeinakhodrAljaz/status/955959626335506432

Alternatively, it could mean they're talking about a counter-offensive into the Turkish occupied zone between Afrin and Rojava, which would take the pressure off.

Karl Barks
Jan 21, 1981

Assad's gonna realize he needs the ypg

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

If the YPG loses it means Afrin is going to be full of FSA Salafis, like another Idlib with Turkish flags.

So after 4 days of ground operations, the FSA only controls a few villages in isolated pockets along the North and Northwestern borders of Afrin. It didn't make that much sense why they'd be making more headway there than from the east, but this guy fills in the geographic situation.

https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/956135571663015937
https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/956141247823011846

Pener Kropoopkin has issued a correction as of 14:17 on Jan 24, 2018

Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer
are YPG doing so well because there are enough kurds for it and/or because they get enough western support or is it because they have a defined territory in Syria and thats all they're interested in? I'm just curious why they appear to be so successful compared to everyone else

its been ages since i looked at an up to date war map

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

Jose posted:

are YPG doing so well because there are enough kurds for it and/or because they get enough western support or is it because they have a defined territory in Syria and thats all they're interested in? I'm just curious why they appear to be so successful compared to everyone else

its been ages since i looked at an up to date war map

YPG in Afrin can't get as much support from the West because there's nowhere for supplies to come in, except the few places on the Turkish side of the border where there's a Kurdish majority. Their real strength is political, and the ability to marshal & coordinate self-defense units. Having a concentrated and defined majority population is what really cements their power.

In the east it all came down to American air power and supplies, coupled with big open unpopulated territories where it's much easier to advance and take territory even while ISIS was booby trapping everything they could. If you mean, how can the YPG control all of that territory - then again their primary strength is political, and it's a non-sectarian politics which helps maintain cohesion.

Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer
i assume that assad and the YPG are essentially at a ceasefire as they both focus on different targets?

lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!

Jose posted:

are YPG doing so well because there are enough kurds for it and/or because they get enough western support or is it because they have a defined territory in Syria and thats all they're interested in? I'm just curious why they appear to be so successful compared to everyone else

its been ages since i looked at an up to date war map

nah. it's because it's their homes and they live there. also explains why there are arabs among them. it's because they live there.

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

Jose posted:

i assume that assad and the YPG are essentially at a ceasefire as they both focus on different targets?

For the most part, yes. They've always had bigger fish to fry. It's also never been in the YPG's interest to directly confront SAA forces, because they need the possibility to make a deal for autonomy. The SAA has attacked YPG before, but it's been sporadic and never lasts long. That's why the SAA only controls a tiny sliver of Al-Hasakah city now, since the YPG took most of it in a counter-attack a few years ago.

Frijolero
Jan 24, 2009

by Nyc_Tattoo
Don't know if this is confirmed yet, but this is certainly something:

https://twitter.com/CivilWarMap/status/956185218259607554

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

https://twitter.com/mutludc/status/956198875450179585

At 1:20 they survey the damage from an artillery shell coming through the roof of a house.

https://twitter.com/NorthernStork/status/956195977383350272

Pener Kropoopkin has issued a correction as of 17:32 on Jan 24, 2018

lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!

Frijolero posted:

Don't know if this is confirmed yet, but this is certainly something:

https://twitter.com/CivilWarMap/status/956185218259607554

it's going to be glorious

Karl Barks
Jan 21, 1981

Frijolero posted:

Don't know if this is confirmed yet, but this is certainly something:

https://twitter.com/CivilWarMap/status/956185218259607554


Karl Barks posted:

Assad's gonna realize he needs the ypg

Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer
the spokesman talking about giving up arms seems foolish in the extreme

what is the state of a lot of ancient syria these days after ISIS blew lots of it up?

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

https://twitter.com/SonKaleTurkiye2/status/956193272753524737

YPG hasn't been purely defensive, and has retaliated against Turkish artillery and air strikes. Rocket attacks into Turkey have been ongoing, and one of them hit a mosque in Kilis, killing 4 and injuring 20 people during prayers. Looking at the photo, it hit one of the domes.


e: https://twitter.com/24Aleppo/status/956185254590545920

Aleppo 24 correspondent says protection units (YPG) are moving in convoys across the border of state controlled territory and Afrin. If this is true, then I'm not sure if it's actually SAA entering Afrin, or if they're just letting SDF/YPG through government territory, or if it's both. In any case, reinforcements flowing into Afrin will mean the Turkish offensive will be way more difficult than it should have been - and there's a good chance the YPG will actually win.

Pener Kropoopkin has issued a correction as of 17:42 on Jan 24, 2018

Human Grand Prix
Jan 24, 2013

by FactsAreUseless
I hope the PYD/YPG pull through but I'm not optimistic.

Karl Barks
Jan 21, 1981

how is earwulf and crew taking this, is the SAA now a settler occupying force??

well i checked and it's basically undecipherable to me https://twitter.com/earwulf/status/956195044033261569

Karl Barks has issued a correction as of 18:20 on Jan 24, 2018

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

https://twitter.com/Dalatrm/status/956108246011531264

the spice must flow babee

e: https://twitter.com/HoseinMortada/status/956225094216486912

YPG in Afrin denies the Al-Mayadeen report that they agreed with the regime to let in the SAA. There must be some agreement reached though, if they're letting YPG travel through government territory.

Pener Kropoopkin has issued a correction as of 19:59 on Jan 24, 2018

Fallen Hamprince
Nov 12, 2016

Jose posted:

the spokesman talking about giving up arms seems foolish in the extreme

what is the state of a lot of ancient syria these days after ISIS blew lots of it up?

there are various restoration projects planned or underway. restoring palmyra has been complicated by the fact that the SAA repeatedly lost control of the city and had to retake it from ISIS

Frijolero
Jan 24, 2009

by Nyc_Tattoo
https://twitter.com/CivilWarMap/status/955938987234951172

They're on the offensive :getin:

Sheng-Ji Yang
Mar 5, 2014


https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_150987.htm

quote:

Keynote address by NATO Deputy Secretary General Rose Gottemoeller at the National Defence University in Istanbul, Turkey

Among all NATO Allies, Turkey is the most exposed to instability and turmoil stemming from the Middle East. Your country has suffered a series of brutal terrorist attacks and I want you to know that NATO stands in solidarity with Turkey in the fight against terrorism.

Frijolero
Jan 24, 2009

by Nyc_Tattoo
Dismantle NATO imo

Trump 2016

GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

https://twitter.com/Dalatrm/status/956108246011531264

the spice must flow babee

e: https://twitter.com/HoseinMortada/status/956225094216486912

YPG in Afrin denies the Al-Mayadeen report that they agreed with the regime to let in the SAA. There must be some agreement reached though, if they're letting YPG travel through government territory.

sputnik radio [i know, i know] was claiming that the russians had acted as brokers with an offer of SAA troops and supplies if the YPG in afrin would fly the syrian flag. supposedly that was turned down yesterday tho.

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

https://twitter.com/RudawEnglish/status/956505405374550016

It's good that this is finally happening, but if the low intensity war the Turks have been waging on the PKK isn't "an area of tension" then what the Hell is? Why didn't they suspend deliveries when the Turks invaded Syria for Operation Euphrates Shield? They're only doing this now because the Germans are afraid of their own Kurdish minority getting into fights with German Turks.

https://twitter.com/yenisafakEN/status/956503192899956738

This is what years of German arms shipments actually look like.

Lawman 0
Aug 17, 2010

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

https://twitter.com/RudawEnglish/status/956505405374550016

It's good that this is finally happening, but if the low intensity war the Turks have been waging on the PKK isn't "an area of tension" then what the Hell is? Why didn't they suspend deliveries when the Turks invaded Syria for Operation Euphrates Shield? They're only doing this now because the Germans are afraid of their own Kurdish minority getting into fights with German Turks.

https://twitter.com/yenisafakEN/status/956503192899956738

This is what years of German arms shipments actually look like.

We already saw them slap fighting once in the streets no?

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

Lawman 0 posted:

We already saw them slap fighting once in the streets no?

German export Leopards have a much higher profile now that they're being used to attack the YPG directly. It's a public relations problem the German state won't be able to avoid.

Frijolero
Jan 24, 2009

by Nyc_Tattoo
Germans are loving garbage people.

Yes, let's dump billions in military equipment on Turkey and Saudi Arabia, but let's also feel bad about it :(

Prav
Oct 29, 2011

it's funny when pearl-clutching rules that were never intended to actually matter run into the reality of nato. they'll have to delay delivery for possibly months, very embarrassing.

Prav has issued a correction as of 16:47 on Jan 25, 2018

Lawman 0
Aug 17, 2010

Frijolero posted:

Germans are loving garbage people.

Yes, let's dump billions in military equipment on Turkey and Saudi Arabia, but let's also feel bad about it :(

End of history induced brain worms

GalacticAcid
Apr 8, 2013

NEW YORK VALUES
hitlers come and go, but germany and the german people remain

Willie Tomg
Feb 2, 2006

Frijolero posted:

Germans are loving garbage people.

Yes, let's dump billions in military equipment on Turkey and Saudi Arabia, but let's also feel bad about it :(

It's actually because the Germans worked really really hard on the Leopard II and in their incursions into the SCW the Turks have apparently been using 1914 as a how-to manual because the last two years of hilariously inept adventures have shown off a lot of blasted interiors of contemporary German military engineering. Usually after sending it into a city ahead of the infantry, or idling it in the wide-loving-open for some reason.

If the turks had the common decency to find their rear end and roll over an irregular militia best on all sides in a week tops like an actual modern military I guarantee it'd be different, as it stands its just embarassing, especially with Russia right there watching.

Willie Tomg
Feb 2, 2006
There's gotta be a 27-letter german compound word for one's disingenuous excuse to leave the party because its just too embarassing to explicitly say "im tired of watching the host poop on the floor and wipe it on their face, blaming the stink on Gulen"

Lawman 0
Aug 17, 2010

Willie Tomg posted:

There's gotta be a 27-letter german compound word for one's disingenuous excuse to leave the party because its just too embarassing to explicitly say "im tired of watching the host poop on the floor and wipe it on their face, blaming the stink on Gulen"

:ocelot:

Dreylad
Jun 19, 2001

Frijolero posted:

Germans are loving garbage people.

Yes, let's dump billions in military equipment on Turkey and Saudi Arabia, but let's also feel bad about it :(

canada dumped a ton of equipment on SA right around the yemen blockade as well

Dreylad
Jun 19, 2001
our feminist prime minister wouldn't reneg on the deal because canada has to honour its agreements or some crap in the face of starving yemeni children

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Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

My favorite bit of Western duplicity and war profiteering, is how much money Europeans were making selling arms to Gaddafi before they all sided with the NATO intervention.

https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/mar/01/eu-arms-exports-libya

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