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CapitalistPig
Nov 3, 2005

A Winner is you!
The first Three players to type #redraw will redraw their private card!

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Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.
##redraw

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.
#redraw

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.
The absolute panic when I automatically typed a ## and thought I might miss my card.

CapitalistPig
Nov 3, 2005

A Winner is you!
Two redraws remain

Asphyxious
Jun 25, 2012

I'm trying to explain that I'm a person who wishes to live a very quiet life.
#redraw

Anomalous Amalgam
Feb 13, 2015

by Nyc_Tattoo
Doctor Rope
#redraw

CapitalistPig
Nov 3, 2005

A Winner is you!
All Redraws have been used.

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.
I would benefit from an 8 if anyone is willing to trade for a 5.

Asphyxious
Jun 25, 2012

I'm trying to explain that I'm a person who wishes to live a very quiet life.

Natural 20 posted:

I would benefit from an 8 if anyone is willing to trade for a 5.

I’m unfortunately unwilling to make that trade, maybe TQ?

Asiina
Apr 26, 2011

No going back
Grimey Drawer
I'd trade a jack, but 11 might be too high for people to want?

My other card is a 7, so meh.

I know I'm not going to get it, but if someone else wants a higher number.

Referee
Aug 25, 2004

"Winning is great, sure, but if you are really going to do something in life, the secret is learning how to lose. Nobody goes undefeated all the time. If you can pick up after a crushing defeat, and go on to win again, you are going to be a champion someday."
(Wilma Rudolph)

CapitalistPig posted:

All Redraws have been used.

A time-limited mechanic at 6 AM Pacific, great.

Referee
Aug 25, 2004

"Winning is great, sure, but if you are really going to do something in life, the secret is learning how to lose. Nobody goes undefeated all the time. If you can pick up after a crushing defeat, and go on to win again, you are going to be a champion someday."
(Wilma Rudolph)

Asphyxious posted:

I’m still not sold on AA. The claim is good, unless Tifa was the town protector role, but the logic is all over the shop. That and the “I protected them, they didn’t die, therefore they were good targets :smug: “ doesn’t sit well with me in light of everything else.

Especially when one of them did.

Is this the quick summary of the argument against AA? I don't see anyone willing to vote him at the moment so I'm assuming we're leaving this to sort out another day?

I'm not dead-set on the Asiina dunk because I'm afraid I'm too close to my own logic, but I don't see much traction on anything else. Thoughts?

Anomalous Amalgam
Feb 13, 2015

by Nyc_Tattoo
Doctor Rope
Eh, asiina has already checked out, if she's town she's useless. If she's scum, she'll kill us.

Soooo.... vote her out

##vote Asiina

Asphyxious
Jun 25, 2012

I'm trying to explain that I'm a person who wishes to live a very quiet life.

IllegallySober posted:

Is this the quick summary of the argument against AA? I don't see anyone willing to vote him at the moment so I'm assuming we're leaving this to sort out another day?

I'm not dead-set on the Asiina dunk because I'm afraid I'm too close to my own logic, but I don't see much traction on anything else. Thoughts?

Absolutely leaving this to sort out another day. Lunching the claimed Doc is dumb, even if their choice of targets doesn’t line up, I think YPM is right, it’s bad play not a scum gambit.

Anomalous Amalgam
Feb 13, 2015

by Nyc_Tattoo
Doctor Rope

Asphyxious posted:

Absolutely leaving this to sort out another day. Lunching the claimed Doc is dumb, even if their choice of targets doesn’t line up, I think YPM is right, it’s bad play not a scum gambit.

Loool, I stand by my choices.

CapitalistPig
Nov 3, 2005

A Winner is you!

IllegallySober posted:

A time-limited mechanic at 6 AM Pacific, great.

Well, I was going to offer more throughout the day but forget it now.

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.
I feel like the Asiina vote is really lazy. I think Asiina is town straight up and I do get where she's coming from in terms of game exhaustion. I'm sure absent the vig I would have gone insane.

But, if Asiina is town and my theory is correct that scum won't target her then here's how things go:

We see two kills potentially and a potential misdunk today taking us to 8 alive tomorrow. Of this our best case is a remainder 2 turks / 1 Shinra.

With Asiina effectively unable to vote or do anything; to dunk one of the two turks you need literally every single other player in the game to agree on the Turk dunk.

That's pretty disastrous.

With an Asiina dunk you have at least some wiggle room. It's still worse than dunking scum though.

So tldr I'd be willing to get on board an Asiina dunk as a final opt out, but I don't think it's our best option.

Asiina
Apr 26, 2011

No going back
Grimey Drawer
I mean, I'll still vote with who people want. I'm not unable to vote. I'm just not going to be making cases on my own.

Truth Quark
Mar 21, 2010

:ffg:
EAT THE DONUTS
:ffg:

Natural 20 posted:

I would benefit from an 8 if anyone is willing to trade for a 5.

##trade Nat20, I'm not getting anywhere close to 22 so sure.

Referee
Aug 25, 2004

"Winning is great, sure, but if you are really going to do something in life, the secret is learning how to lose. Nobody goes undefeated all the time. If you can pick up after a crushing defeat, and go on to win again, you are going to be a champion someday."
(Wilma Rudolph)

Asphyxious posted:

Absolutely leaving this to sort out another day. Lunching the claimed Doc is dumb, even if their choice of targets doesn’t line up, I think YPM is right, it’s bad play not a scum gambit.

Okay.

Speaking of YPM, I feel like he's been real quiet today.

Referee
Aug 25, 2004

"Winning is great, sure, but if you are really going to do something in life, the secret is learning how to lose. Nobody goes undefeated all the time. If you can pick up after a crushing defeat, and go on to win again, you are going to be a champion someday."
(Wilma Rudolph)

CapitalistPig posted:

Well, I was going to offer more throughout the day but forget it now.

I was just poking fun, Pig, you know I don't mean anything by it :hfive:

I'm probably not getting anywhere near winning this one anyway so :shrug:

Referee
Aug 25, 2004

"Winning is great, sure, but if you are really going to do something in life, the secret is learning how to lose. Nobody goes undefeated all the time. If you can pick up after a crushing defeat, and go on to win again, you are going to be a champion someday."
(Wilma Rudolph)

Natural 20 posted:

I feel like the Asiina vote is really lazy. I think Asiina is town straight up and I do get where she's coming from in terms of game exhaustion. I'm sure absent the vig I would have gone insane.

But, if Asiina is town and my theory is correct that scum won't target her then here's how things go:

We see two kills potentially and a potential misdunk today taking us to 8 alive tomorrow. Of this our best case is a remainder 2 turks / 1 Shinra.

With Asiina effectively unable to vote or do anything; to dunk one of the two turks you need literally every single other player in the game to agree on the Turk dunk.

That's pretty disastrous.

With an Asiina dunk you have at least some wiggle room. It's still worse than dunking scum though.

So tldr I'd be willing to get on board an Asiina dunk as a final opt out, but I don't think it's our best option.

If not Asiina, who would be your choice today?

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.

Truth Quark posted:

##trade Nat20, I'm not getting anywhere close to 22 so sure.

## accept

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.

IllegallySober posted:

If not Asiina, who would be your choice today?

Also I see this IS and I'm not ignoring it, but I also don't have access to my game spreadsheet at the moment. As a /lot/ of roles have been claimed and corroborated at the moment I want to check to see if there's a slipup somewhere before I commit to reading purely on my gut.

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.

OH MY GOD

##accept

Referee
Aug 25, 2004

"Winning is great, sure, but if you are really going to do something in life, the secret is learning how to lose. Nobody goes undefeated all the time. If you can pick up after a crushing defeat, and go on to win again, you are going to be a champion someday."
(Wilma Rudolph)

Natural 20 posted:

Also I see this IS and I'm not ignoring it, but I also don't have access to my game spreadsheet at the moment. As a /lot/ of roles have been claimed and corroborated at the moment I want to check to see if there's a slipup somewhere before I commit to reading purely on my gut.

Fair enough :) I'm at work as well, so will be checking in periodically from now until deadline.

Anomalous Amalgam
Feb 13, 2015

by Nyc_Tattoo
Doctor Rope
We want 21, not 22 right? or am I being dumb as is usual?

Anomalous Amalgam
Feb 13, 2015

by Nyc_Tattoo
Doctor Rope

CapitalistPig posted:

Well, I was going to offer more throughout the day but forget it now.

You should do this again :)

:allears:

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.

votefinder posted:

The mini game today will be a card game.

Everyone will receive two cards from a standard 52 card deck. One card will be visible, while one is private. You may trade your visible card with anyone else in the thread, by using the action ##trade. Both parties must agree to the trade in order for it to take place. Once the day ends, the cards held will be locked into place. Whomever gets closest to 22 without going over will win. Jacks are 11, Queen 12, King 13, Aces 1 or 14. In the event of a tie, a tiebreaker will be done privately by the mod

Anomalous Amalgam
Feb 13, 2015

by Nyc_Tattoo
Doctor Rope
Ah, I see.

So I am just dumb.

:v:

CapitalistPig
Nov 3, 2005

A Winner is you!

Nat20 and TQ have traded public cards

Public cards -

AA - 10 of Diamonds
Asiina - Jack of Clubs
Gaspy - 8 of hearts
Bif - 9 of spades
Gene - 6 of clubs
IS- 6 of hearts
Juchero - Jack of diamonds
Mithross - 2 of spades
Nat 20 - 8 of spades
TQ - 5 of clubs
YPM - 9 of clubs

Bifauxnen
Aug 12, 2010

Curses! Foiled again!


Natural 20 posted:

I do get where she's coming from in terms of game exhaustion. I'm sure absent the vig I would have gone insane.

Next time anyone goes on about problems in the Mafia community, I'm gonna make sure "people not actually liking to play Mafia" gets more attention as one of the main suspects. :argh:

Asiina, if you are town can you please just give us a lumpenlist or something, goddamn. Even if you haven't been paying attention just a quick gut read on who sounds fulla poo poo might be genuinely nice after all this night action bingo.

...also boo for spoiling the 22 thing Nat, I was hoping some people wouldn't have paid attention to that :cheeky:

Referee
Aug 25, 2004

"Winning is great, sure, but if you are really going to do something in life, the secret is learning how to lose. Nobody goes undefeated all the time. If you can pick up after a crushing defeat, and go on to win again, you are going to be a champion someday."
(Wilma Rudolph)

Bifauxnen posted:

Next time anyone goes on about problems in the Mafia community, I'm gonna make sure "people not actually liking to play Mafia" gets more attention as one of the main suspects. :argh:

I'm quickly discovering this about myself :(

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.
Okay, so this is my long post about who we go for if we don't go for Asiina.

I'll cover firstly the gamestate in this post. Hopefully it will make things a little clearer to follow since everything's been a bit mad.

Materia

GeneX definitely has the counter materia and almost certainly has the mime materia

Little Mac must have had the Steal materia but that's gone.

That leaves the Restore materia and Time materia unaccounted for. Since the winners were anonymous and Mac didn't drop the Steal Materia on death unless a player here claims those materia we have no idea if they're even still in play.

Claims

We currently have these roles claimed (claimed but unsubstantiated roles in italics, I class a role where the effect was observed and has not been counterclaimed as substantiated).

Asiina - VT
Gaspy - ?
Bif - ?
GeneX - Jailer / Mime / Counter - (Jailer substantiated by a claimed Jail on Bif that was not counterclaimed / Mime substantiated by a lack of counterclaim, Counter substantiated by a lack of counterclaim)
IS - ?
Juchero - 2x Dvig (substantiated by observable vig)
Mithross - ?
Nat20 - Dice Vig (substantiated by observable deaths and claimed vigs)
AA - Doc
TQ - ?
YPM - Cop (substantiated by a GeneX mime)

Additionally we know this.

Gaspy copped as Town.
Bif copped as Town (I think?) - see quote below as what I believe was YPM flagging his intent to cop Bif N3 and he has not since outed Bif as scum.
TQ copped as Town.

GeneX has assumed additionally that I've been copped as of N4 or N5 which was his logic on why he didn't cop me on Night 5.


As YPM has yet to counterclaim that, I'm making the tentative assumption that I've also been copped as town.

So our listing now is:

Asiina - ???
Gaspy - Town
Bif - Town
GeneX - ???
IS - ???
Juchero - ???
Mithross - ???
Nat20 - Town
AA - ???
TQ - Town
YPM - Town (This assumes that the Mime claim is true and that it would be really really weird to have a scum cop, although that's plausible in this game)

Please note, I am not assuming that there are no godfathers in this game. But I think our search at the moment is best placed outside of people copping as town as most of that group have been posting a fair bit.

Additionally I'd like the caveat that I'm not a machine, there could be mistakes in this, but I think I've been relatively thorough. I'd appreciate input from anyone else if they believe I've made a mistake or omitted something.

Referee
Aug 25, 2004

"Winning is great, sure, but if you are really going to do something in life, the secret is learning how to lose. Nobody goes undefeated all the time. If you can pick up after a crushing defeat, and go on to win again, you are going to be a champion someday."
(Wilma Rudolph)

I've softclaimed it previous to this, but I'll state outright that I'm VT.

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.
So with that basis.

I am assuming Asiina is town.

Of the remaining people there are two who we have no claim from and no cop on.

IS and Mithross.

From a purely information based standpoint these are the two biggest flips town can get.

But data isn't enough here, let's look at their recent posting:

IS

IS has been part of the push on Asiina today, positing perhaps that she's KB's partner. There's some solid enough meta reasoning here based on past knowledge of KB, it's not going to shake the earth, but I give it some credit as an argument with a decent substantiation. Subsequent to my claims that I thought Asiina was town there's been gentle poking on me about where my vote would go. If I had to say something was suspicious it would be a failure to engage with Asiina's reasoning on her exhaustion with the game. Especially considering the most recent IS post dictating that he's not enjoying it all that much either. Whilst a failure to adapt a claim quickly is usually a black mark it's honestly not all that bad and he's also at work, so I would imagine a more substantive counter will show later.

I'm leaning town on IS for the moment.

Mithross

I don't really want to echo Gaspy too much, but there's basically nothing here and there hasn't been anything for days. Both Gaspy and I identified that Mithross' post subsequent to the KB flip was weird and either if you're taking Gaspy's line a scumbo desperately trying to create content, or my line, someone with more information on what's going on than they're letting on, slipping up and making a comment that belies that.

Mithross posted:

because I'm afraid the planet is about to be destroyed, which is worse than that

This is the only response, which isn't a claim against the motivations that we put forward but just a reassertion in less ambiguous terms of the same thing as before.

Beyond that I would just be reiterating Gaspy.

I think that the best vote today lies on Mithross, it removes a person who's been lurky, it also removes a person who has been posting scummy statements all day as well and generates us a lot of information.

##vote Mithross

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.
Goddamn it has been so long since I was last able to datadump like that. :boom:

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.

IllegallySober posted:

I've softclaimed it previous to this, but I'll state outright that I'm VT.

Coolio - I thought as much but I didn't want to bias the analysis with much more conjecture.

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Referee
Aug 25, 2004

"Winning is great, sure, but if you are really going to do something in life, the secret is learning how to lose. Nobody goes undefeated all the time. If you can pick up after a crushing defeat, and go on to win again, you are going to be a champion someday."
(Wilma Rudolph)

Natural 20 posted:

Coolio - I thought as much but I didn't want to bias the analysis with much more conjecture.

No problem. I want to come back to your thoughts on me when I go on lunch in about on hour.

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