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euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

Redgrendel2001 posted:

And as Euphronius pointed out, it's even more hosed up that "running your team well" basically means don't invest large sums of money in older players who'll spend the back half of their contract on a downhill slide.

The other owners and Silver killed him, but the big name agents were equally culpable.

They really hated his Hinkie Special 4 year minimum deals for rookie free agents and second rounders. I think that had a lot to do with his demise as well.

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Athanatos
Jun 7, 2006

Est. 1967

Kibner posted:

stats.nba.com released boxout metrics

Is there a "Loud old guy fan screaming 'FOLLOW YOUR SHOT'" metric?

Cause the Pacers are in 1st place

Mr. Mambold
Feb 13, 2011

Aha. Nice post.



Dejan Bimble posted:

Scottie Pippen's alma mater, Central Arkansas University, has produced no other NBA players. It's an NAIA school that he entered at 6'1, and left at 6'8. It had an agricultural program that focused on forage recovery for late growth in stock. Is there a connection?

Dennis Rodman also went to an NAIA school in S.E. Oklahoma (Southeastern, I think in Durant?) What are the odds of 2 guys like that on a Championship team?

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?

Athanatos posted:

Is there a "Loud old guy fan screaming 'FOLLOW YOUR SHOT'" metric?

Cause the Pacers are in 1st place

Every white man in the state of Indiana over the age of 40 thinks that they're Bobby Knight

Spring Break My Heart
Feb 15, 2012

Intruder posted:

Assuming Beverley stayed healthy and Lou played like he has been for the Clippers: are the Rockets better this year without making the CP3 trade?
No.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

Intruder posted:

Intentionally sucking for years so you can one day vie for the 8 seed in the east doesn't seem like the greatest thing for fans to watch

e: Yes I get the irony of an Astros fan saying this
Ben Simmons is still 21 and could become a superstar. Embiid is only 23 and Fultz still hasn't started playing and is 19. The 8-seed is definitely not this group's ceiling. Not to mention the money they have to spend to add more talent.

Punkin Spunkin
Jan 1, 2010
Huh it wasn't that many pages ago when I was wondering aloud why Mitch Kupchak never got a new GM job.
Sure his late career had some missteps but I think they're about as equal to his early strong achievements and with the former you can ponder how much of it was Jimmy Buss'd up.
Glad he's getting another shot...now I'm waiting for Hinkie to get one too... :colbert: on the third day he will rise from the dead

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


Intruder posted:

Trade your chaff for Jimmy Harden, then a few years later trade a beloved player and a godlike Lou Williams for CP3 with those two moves sandwiching improbably discovering an elite swiss center in the latter part of the first round

Of the top 10 centers by WS this season and last season combined, five are lottery picks, five were taken later than the 20th pick. I think scouting of bigs is worse than other positions for some reason.

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

Are you including KAT and AD and zinger.

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


euphronius posted:

Are you including KAT and AD and zinger.

BBREF didn’t count AD but Porzingis does t make the cut (8.1ws is 29th in the league because Porzingis isn’t all that great). It’s KAT, Valanciunas, Drummond, Adams, Horford from the lottery, Capela, Jokic, Gobert, Jordan, and Whiteside from the end of the draft.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

euphronius posted:

Are you including KAT and AD and zinger.

Assuming he's using this search, no he is not.

e: apparently not quite the same search

IcePhoenix fucked around with this message at 21:05 on Feb 20, 2018

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

DeimosRising posted:

BBREF didn’t count AD but Porzingis does t make the cut (8.1ws is 29th in the league because Porzingis isn’t all that great). It’s KAT, Valanciunas, Drummond, Adams, Horford from the lottery, Capela, Jokic, Gobert, Jordan, and Whiteside from the end of the draft.

The international "misses" make sense. They've all grown substantially since they were playing euro ball.

Whiteside and Jordan I don't know.

iamsosmrt
Jun 14, 2008

The Process is ongoing and anyone making a sincere critique about its effectiveness is being petty at this point. If either of Embiid or Simmons (Fultz too, obviously) end up an All NBA player or MVP candidate within a few years, then it's a success. The point of comparison isn't other teams but where the Sixers were when the whole thing started, which was a team that was dreadfully mediocre and then gutted its meandering future for Andrew Bynum (people forget about this wrinkle too often). Hinkie came into an already broken team and is most guilty of not being a guy who gave people like Luol Deng and Mozgov albatross contracts to keep fake confidence in the team.

Also, assuming the Sixers end up in the playoffs in 6-8, not all lower seeded teams are the same. There's a huge difference between an up and coming team hitting their stride for the first time and a veteran/capped out team maxing out as a 6th seed like the Bobcat Hornets. Even if they lose in the first round, I think there will naturally be higher expectations going forward. And if they become perennial playoff 2nd or 3rd round losers, at least the process debate will be much more interesting.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

euphronius posted:

The international "misses" make sense. They've all grown substantially since they were playing euro ball.

Whiteside and Jordan I don't know.
Whiteside was a high upside guy with character question marks who initially washed out of the league after being drafted, so it wasn't really that scouts missed on him, but that he turned his career around and reached his potential years later.

Nissin Cup Nudist
Sep 3, 2011

Sleep with one eye open

We're off to Gritty Gritty land




euphronius posted:

The international "misses" make sense. They've all grown substantially since they were playing euro ball.

Whiteside and Jordan I don't know.

Whiteside fell because he was (still is?) a low effort dumbass

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

Whiteside fell because he was (still is?) a low effort dumbass

the story about him checking himself out in a two way mirror will always make me laugh

morestuff
Aug 2, 2008

You can't stop what's coming

Punkin Spunkin posted:

Huh it wasn't that many pages ago when I was wondering aloud why Mitch Kupchak never got a new GM job.
Sure his late career had some missteps but I think they're about as equal to his early strong achievements and with the former you can ponder how much of it was Jimmy Buss'd up.
Glad he's getting another shot...now I'm waiting for Hinkie to get one too... :colbert: on the third day he will rise from the dead

Apparently Charlotte hasn't even reached out to Kupchak yet so it's pretty far from a sure thing. Not sure why they'd leak his name at all if it wasn't a sure thing, but I get why Woj is running with it.

The team president says they're going to interview a half-dozen people and have someone in place by the end of the season.

Intruder
Mar 5, 2003

DeimosRising posted:

Of the top 10 centers by WS this season and last season combined, five are lottery picks, five were taken later than the 20th pick. I think scouting of bigs is worse than other positions for some reason.

Funny enough, the plan was to stash Capela in Europe for a few years but he forced the Rockets hand. I guess it worked out

Cool Buff Man
Jul 30, 2006

bitch

Intruder posted:

Assuming Beverley stayed healthy and Lou played like he has been for the Clippers: are the Rockets better this year without making the CP3 trade?

No, Patrick Beverley + Lou Williams does not equal Crisp Haul

houstonguy
Jun 2, 2005

:minnie: Cat Army :minnie:
2nd Battalion

WhyteRyce posted:

I remember some :smug: article about the Mavs 5 or so years ago about how they reloaded instead of rebuilt because Cuban is a genius that zigs when everyone zags and therefore hits on market inefficiencies like Monta Ellis

Even better, here is an article from like 350 days ago where Cuban pats himself on the back for finishing a rebuild in a year.

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop

Mr. Mambold posted:

Dennis Rodman also went to an NAIA school in S.E. Oklahoma (Southeastern, I think in Durant?) What are the odds of 2 guys like that on a Championship team?

I wonder how many times it's ever happened

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop

Kibner posted:

stats.nba.com released boxout metrics

The hustle package is nice

http://stats.nba.com/players/hustle/?sort=DEFLECTIONS&dir=1

This is a list of guys who contest shots well

Paul George is very good, Eric Bledsoe uses his long arms to contest shots that players think will fly free.

WhyteRyce posted:

Tanking is a tragedy of the commons type thing. I get why teams do it, I get why it's necessary, I get the appeal, I get the strategy, I want the Kings to do it, all of that. But if half the teams in the league were all blatantly The Processing it then it wouldn't work.

About 1/3 of the league seems to be attempting and failing to tank, to some degree.
It's a risky strategy that still might not pay off if you draft perfectly, trade James Harden and have a bad medical staff, and you let your young stars strangle the offense in crunch time to the point that one wants to leave due to constant failure.

The best strategy I can see is to have one of the best players in history born nearby and to have the league award you the first pick as many times as necessary to get him on your team and reacquire him if he leaves.

The second best is to be not bad enough and draft in the mid rather than early lottery, injure your best player to sign him to a far below future value deal, then use prayer based team building to lure a toolsy forward from a rival, fire the prayer guy for someone who knows how basketball should be played, and have so much fun beating everyone that the second best player in the league takes a pay cut to come play with you.

The Clippers lost for decades and it got them nothing. You need good scouts, good coaches, good trainers, good luck, good everything.

Sometimes you get a scrappy undersized center from a tiny Virginia college in a superstar salary sign and trade, acquire a high lottery point guard from an impatient team, and then get an incredibly versatile forward who can defend and shoot threes for the price of Bob Sura, because he doesn't want to play for a mediocre and listless team who he was traded to one day ago.


Other times you tank for precisely one year at a time to acquire the best defensive center in modern basketball history, and import foreign players, get everyone to sign for cheap because of team building wine tasting sessions, and beat the team with 3 of the best 6 players in the league by giving their overly muscled bodies cramps after tampering with the air conditioning.

Dejan Bimble fucked around with this message at 22:03 on Feb 20, 2018

Rick
Feb 23, 2004
When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.
Sixers fans and Raptors fans arguing about the Lakers run and its sustainability is weird.

DeimosRising posted:

Of the top 10 centers by WS this season and last season combined, five are lottery picks, five were taken later than the 20th pick. I think scouting of bigs is worse than other positions for some reason.

I think some of it is that it's really hard to draft a guy who has no offensive potential at all, and teams would rather draft a big with nice form on his jumper than is an athlete with no offensive ability. Which leads to a lot of post-10 "well he kind of hits shots, or at least he looks like he can hit a shot, we can probably athletic him up." It looks like it is in fact difficult to improve the athleticism of bigs (I do think the NBA does a pretty good job of getting guards who aren't great athletes to be at the very least acceptable by an NBA standard). Also "you can't teach height" so the NBA shies away from guys under 7 feet, even if they're complete, or at least have the strong potential to be complete packages. Frankly most of the front offices who have been picking in the 20s recently are better than the ones picking in the teens, and the teams picking in the 10s should just in theory have easier decisions.

This is my unsupported hypothesis on this.

morestuff posted:

Apparently Charlotte hasn't even reached out to Kupchak yet so it's pretty far from a sure thing. Not sure why they'd leak his name at all if it wasn't a sure thing, but I get why Woj is running with it.

The team president says they're going to interview a half-dozen people and have someone in place by the end of the season.

Cho is one of Woj's regular sources over the years so maybe this is just why Cho thinks he's not being retained. I think Cho is not bad and it looks like Paul Allen is to blame for more of what were my perceived problems with Cho back in the day.

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?

Fast Luck posted:

Whiteside was a high upside guy with character question marks who initially washed out of the league after being drafted, so it wasn't really that scouts missed on him, but that he turned his career around and reached his potential years later.

And Jordan was ultra raw and not very good when he got drafted. He didnt really do anything in the NBA until his third season and wasn't a star until his 5th or 6th. Sometimes lottery tickets hit

scuz
Aug 29, 2003

You can't be angry ALL the time!




Fun Shoe

MourningView posted:

And Jordan was ultra raw and not very good when he got drafted. He didnt really do anything in the NBA until his third season and wasn't a star until his 5th or 6th. Sometimes lottery tickets hit

Let's hope the Maple Jordan follows this timeline! That'd sure be swell.

Papercut
Aug 24, 2005

The quickest substitution in the history of the NBA

iamsosmrt posted:

The Process is ongoing and anyone making a sincere critique about its effectiveness is being petty at this point. If either of Embiid or Simmons (Fultz too, obviously) end up an All NBA player or MVP candidate within a few years, then it's a success. The point of comparison isn't other teams but where the Sixers were when the whole thing started, which was a team that was dreadfully mediocre and then gutted its meandering future for Andrew Bynum (people forget about this wrinkle too often). Hinkie came into an already broken team and is most guilty of not being a guy who gave people like Luol Deng and Mozgov albatross contracts to keep fake confidence in the team.

Also, assuming the Sixers end up in the playoffs in 6-8, not all lower seeded teams are the same. There's a huge difference between an up and coming team hitting their stride for the first time and a veteran/capped out team maxing out as a 6th seed like the Bobcat Hornets. Even if they lose in the first round, I think there will naturally be higher expectations going forward. And if they become perennial playoff 2nd or 3rd round losers, at least the process debate will be much more interesting.

The Sixers this year are basically what OKC was in '09-'10. They have a couple guys who look like guaranteed superstars assuming they remain healthy, plus some very good prospects and a lot of flexibility. Any fan who wouldn't relish that chance is either incredibly spoiled or crazy. I would trade the Blazers' last 4 playoff seasons for that situation in a heartbeat.

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop

Papercut posted:

The Sixers this year are basically what OKC was in '09-'10. They have a couple guys who look like guaranteed superstars assuming they remain healthy, plus some very good prospects and a lot of flexibility. Any fan who wouldn't relish that chance is either incredibly spoiled or crazy. I would trade the Blazers' last 4 playoff seasons for that situation in a heartbeat.

The returns diminish quickly the more teams decide to give up on a season. And it undermines the unspoken agreement that this sport is a TV show that's meant to be entertaining to viewers. If you, the GM, put out lovely TV product, like the 'not even pretending to try' sixers, the league will destroy you, replace you with you with somebody's idiot son and will probably give Cleveland your team's draft pick.


Everyone signed those huge deals in 2016 so that they could spend up to the cap and pretend they were trying, but they're just so cash strapped, "how could we have known that this mediocre or bad player would continue to be who he was, we can't do anything about it." It's as clear as a drinking glass

mikeraskol
May 3, 2006

Oh yeah. I was killing you.

MourningView posted:

And Jordan was ultra raw and not very good when he got drafted. He didnt really do anything in the NBA until his third season and wasn't a star until his 5th or 6th. Sometimes lottery tickets hit

I can't remember where I read this, but apparently Jordan also hated his college coach and so he basically put in no effort while at school, both on and off the court.

Kibner
Oct 21, 2008

#1 Pelican Fan
https://twitter.com/ShamsCharania/status/966032920870834176

I know jack and poo poo about this guy, but the name makes me laugh.

Salvor_Hardin
Sep 13, 2005

I want to go protest.
Nap Ghost

Kibner posted:

https://twitter.com/ShamsCharania/status/966032920870834176

I know jack and poo poo about this guy, but the name makes me laugh.

I hope the team incorporates a lemon party joke in somewhere.

Carlosologist
Oct 13, 2013

Revelry in the Dark

How do you even improve scouting? I think I heard somewhere that high school scouting has gotten a lot better and one and done prospects as a result are hitting sooner. Does it make sense for a team to throw a ton of money into scouting and development if it means they'll be able to bring guys closer to their potential?

Intruder
Mar 5, 2003

Kibner posted:

https://twitter.com/ShamsCharania/status/966032920870834176

I know jack and poo poo about this guy, but the name makes me laugh.

Cool, Walter Matthau and Jack Lemmon reincarnated into a shared body

morestuff
Aug 2, 2008

You can't stop what's coming
NBA's ratings are really good this season, even on RSNs:

quote:

The NBA continues to buck the television ratings trend, with both national and local viewership showing impressive gains as the league headed into the All-Star break.

Nationally, NBA games on ABC, ESPN, NBA TV and TNT are showing double-digit viewership increases. The combined 15 percent jump puts the league’s TV viewership at its best mark heading into All-Star weekend since the 2012-13 season.

Locally, regional sports networks are seeing a 7 percent increase in ratings so far this season. SportsBusiness Journal analyzed ratings data for 27 U.S.-based teams across the NBA. Seventeen RSNs showed increases; 10 posted decreases. Information for Memphis, Utah and Toronto was not available.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

Zogo did the NBA reward the Sixers with the Ben Simmons pick in exchange for hiring Colangelo and forcing out Hinkie?

The B_36
Jul 10, 2012

Papercut posted:

The Sixers this year are basically what OKC was in '09-'10. They have a couple guys who look like guaranteed superstars assuming they remain healthy, plus some very good prospects and a lot of flexibility. Any fan who wouldn't relish that chance is either incredibly spoiled or crazy. I would trade the Blazers' last 4 playoff seasons for that situation in a heartbeat.

Well sure, if your metric for success is "more promising long term than the Blazers", then you'd also trade their last 4 playoff seasons for about half the teams in the league. The Sixers aren't the first team to ever have a few promising (injury prone) young guys, a small payroll and some draft picks.

MOVIE MAJICK
Jan 4, 2012

by Pragmatica
Fire Marv

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_WC-J_BB5E

iamsosmrt
Jun 14, 2008

The B_36 posted:

Well sure, if your metric for success is "more promising long term than the Blazers", then you'd also trade their last 4 playoff seasons for about half the teams in the league. The Sixers aren't the first team to ever have a few promising (injury prone) young guys, a small payroll and some draft picks.

Do you rate every sports management strategy in binary? To the biggest "victims" of the process, Sixers fans, it's already been a pretty big success. The amount of hope the fanbase has gotten is a huge part of why people have accepted it and gotten onboard.

Rick
Feb 23, 2004
When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.
I really wasn't tired of the Lakers losing until Earvin decided he wanted to repeat mistakes that the previous front office learned a lesson from again. Like is the backup plan to tank again for the 2019 draft if everyone says no again? Too bad so many of the good 2019 class hopped into the 2018 class.

xbilkis
Apr 11, 2005

god qb
me
jay hova
Bulls fire up the tank

https://twitter.com/KCJHoop/status/966071774780837890
https://twitter.com/KCJHoop/status/966072242080833536
https://twitter.com/KCJHoop/status/966072993301622786

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Dexo
Aug 15, 2009

A city that was to live by night after the wilderness had passed. A city that was to forge out of steel and blood-red neon its own peculiar wilderness.

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