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Ginette Reno
Nov 18, 2006

How Doers get more done
Fun Shoe
The biggest time the Rangers got screwed was in 05-06. They had the same chance as the Penguins to draft Crosby. Buffalo and Columbus also had the same chance at him. Buffalo probably would have won a Cup with him. They had a stacked team coming out of the lockout even without him.

But the Rangers not only didn't win that lottery but they also ended up picking 12th where they got the illustrious Marc Staal. Just above him was Kopitar though I have no idea if the Rangers would have taken him had he been available.

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T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?
The Rangers could turn it around pretty quickly. They still have a lot of assets/guys to build around, at least three top tier prospects, a ton of picks now, and are obviously an extremely attractive place to play. They could really use a warm envelope at the draft but they're not in a bad position by any means.

Matt Zerella
Oct 7, 2002

Norris'es are back baby. It's good again. Awoouu (fox Howl)

Ginette Reno posted:

The biggest time the Rangers got screwed was in 05-06. They had the same chance as the Penguins to draft Crosby. Buffalo and Columbus also had the same chance at him. Buffalo probably would have won a Cup with him. They had a stacked team coming out of the lockout even without him.

But the Rangers not only didn't win that lottery but they also ended up picking 12th where they got the illustrious Marc Staal. Just above him was Kopitar though I have no idea if the Rangers would have taken him had he been available.

Staal was really good early on. Really good. Then his dipshit brother killed him and here we are.

a false
Mar 5, 2009

I DECIDE
WHO LIVES
AND WHO DIES

T-Bone posted:

The Rangers could turn it around pretty quickly. They still have a lot of assets/guys to build around, at least three top tier prospects, a ton of picks now, and are obviously an extremely attractive place to play. They could really use a warm envelope at the draft but they're not in a bad position by any means.

i think they really need to make sure that their picks are focused on players with the highest possible ceiling. guys who are good skaters with limited scoring potential are fine, but much easier and cheaper to get later in trades and free agency. they've made a lot of safe/safe-ish picks over the years, with three firsts this year they should really be swinging for the fences

Levitate
Sep 30, 2005

randy newman voice

YOU'VE GOT A LAFRENIÈRE IN ME

Matt Zerella posted:

Staal was really good early on. Really good. Then his dipshit brother killed him and here we are.

That and losing an eye

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

a false posted:

i think they really need to make sure that their picks are focused on players with the highest possible ceiling. guys who are good skaters with limited scoring potential are fine, but much easier and cheaper to get later in trades and free agency. they've made a lot of safe/safe-ish picks over the years, with three firsts this year they should really be swinging for the fences

Yeah, they have a boat load of prospects but no one I would structure a rebuild around at this point. Chytil and Andersson are trending well, but today you'd be hard pressed to say they'll be anything more than complementary pieces in five years' time. I don't think it'll be a quick turn around for them outside of some incredible lottery luck, but they've successfully changed their approach to the future which is the right thing to do. I see them more like the Islander pre-Tavares: lots of second tier youngsters, but devoid of a face of the franchise type to given them a real style to build around. Once that guy is in place I think they'll surge back to respectability in short order though.

Otis Reddit
Nov 14, 2006
I really think we try to muscle our way into the top 3 in what turns out to be some sort of crushing mistake. I don't believe we'll ever get a real 18 year old stud franchise player.

Matt Zerella
Oct 7, 2002

Norris'es are back baby. It's good again. Awoouu (fox Howl)
Oilers win the lottery, Rangers offer Kreider and their 3 1sts for Dahlin, select some guy we've never heard of.

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe
teams should be able to trade lottery balls

a false
Mar 5, 2009

I DECIDE
WHO LIVES
AND WHO DIES

ThinkTank posted:

Yeah, they have a boat load of prospects but no one I would structure a rebuild around at this point. Chytil and Andersson are trending well, but today you'd be hard pressed to say they'll be anything more than complementary pieces in five years' time. I don't think it'll be a quick turn around for them outside of some incredible lottery luck, but they've successfully changed their approach to the future which is the right thing to do. I see them more like the Islander pre-Tavares: lots of second tier youngsters, but devoid of a face of the franchise type to given them a real style to build around. Once that guy is in place I think they'll surge back to respectability in short order though.

i agree with almost all of this but i think chytil's ceiling is still higher than 'complementary piece'

Thufir
May 19, 2004

"The fucking Mayans were right."

bewbies posted:

teams should be able to trade lottery balls

This would be cool.

Levitate
Sep 30, 2005

randy newman voice

YOU'VE GOT A LAFRENIÈRE IN ME

ThinkTank posted:

Yeah, they have a boat load of prospects but no one I would structure a rebuild around at this point. Chytil and Andersson are trending well, but today you'd be hard pressed to say they'll be anything more than complementary pieces in five years' time.

Eh they're both producing well in the AHL as 18 and 19 year olds, that's pretty impressive. I guess it depends on what you define "complementary pieces" as. Is everyone who's not an outright elite talent a complementary piece? Then sure. But I do think you have to build a team around a core group of players and they could be a part of that core.

quote:

I don't think it'll be a quick turn around for them outside of some incredible lottery luck, but they've successfully changed their approach to the future which is the right thing to do. I see them more like the Islander pre-Tavares: lots of second tier youngsters, but devoid of a face of the franchise type to given them a real style to build around. Once that guy is in place I think they'll surge back to respectability in short order though.

I mean honestly that's how their team has been for the past decade or whatever anyways. The only real star has been Lundqvist and while they've brought in some guys to try to be that elite talent, most of them have only lasted about a year or so in that role for various reasons. They've stayed competitive basically be being the prototype for a team like Vegas. Deep team with a lot of 2nd liner types and you can just keep rolling them out there. Things started taking a down turn when they lost a lot of that depth for various reasons.

Without the guarantee of a franchise elite player I think you just have to put together the best group of players you can and you can still be a really good team without that elite player, but to win the cup is sure does fuckin' help...

Stiev Awt
Mar 20, 2007


bewbies posted:

teams should be able to trade lottery balls

this is good

Wamsutta
Sep 9, 2001

Otis Reddit posted:

I don't believe we'll ever get a real 18 year old stud franchise player.

That's kind of how I feel too. Not every franchise gets one, honestly, but drat it's been so long playing with B-tier guys that it would feel surreal to have a legit star.

Mind_Taker
May 7, 2007



The Rangers have had a superstar franchise player for years. His name is Henrik Lundqvist.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

bewbies posted:

teams should be able to trade lottery balls

I don't hate the idea, but it would probably necessitate a complete reworking of the current lottery and would likely be far more trouble than it's worth. They currently number ping pong balls 1-14, and draw 4 creating 1001 combinations that are then distributed to teams based on percentage. What would teams even trade? Like ten combinations or something? This is the insanely risk averse NHL we're talking about. Teams balk at the mere idea trading 1st round picks if there's any chance it could be top 5. Its been a decade since a top 5 pick was traded (aside from Seguin), I find it hard to believe that teams would willingly reduce their chances of getting one.

Thufir
May 19, 2004

"The fucking Mayans were right."
You'd probably see the last couple teams in the lottery trade their chances to like the 2nd or 3rd worst teams for a 5th or something.

HookShot
Dec 26, 2005
I still don't even know how Burke managed to get the 2nd and 3rd overall pick to get the Sedins, but it's incredible that he did, and that the Canucks had two bonafide superstars for years.

Nissin Cup Nudist
Sep 3, 2011

Sleep with one eye open

We're off to Gritty Gritty land




HookShot posted:

I still don't even know how Burke managed to get the 2nd and 3rd overall pick to get the Sedins, but it's incredible that he did, and that the Canucks had two bonafide superstars for years.

IIRC, The Canucks naturally had one of the picks and traded a boatload of future pucks for the other

a false
Mar 5, 2009

I DECIDE
WHO LIVES
AND WHO DIES

Mind_Taker posted:

The Rangers have had a superstar franchise player for years. His name is Henrik Lundqvist.

this is true, but i think the degree of variance between "superstar goaltender" and "pretty good goaltender" is more negligible as far as winning games goes than the difference between "superstar #1 center" and "pretty good player who is your #1 center"

Thufir
May 19, 2004

"The fucking Mayans were right."

Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

IIRC, The Canucks naturally had one of the picks and traded a boatload of future pucks for the other

Yeah it was pretty crazy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_NHL_Entry_Draft

"Vancouver GM Brian Burke was determined to draft the Daniel and Henrik Sedin, after their performance at the 1999 IIHF World Championship in Oslo, Norway. He began by complementing his existing third overall pick by trading defenseman Bryan McCabe and Vancouver's 1st-round pick in the 2000 Draft (used to select Pavel Vorobiev) to the Chicago Blackhawks for the fourth overall pick. Then, on the day of the draft, he traded the fourth overall pick and two 3rd-round picks to Tampa Bay for their first overall pick, which the Lightning in turn traded to the New York Rangers, who selected Pavel Brendl. Vancouver and Atlanta then worked out a deal whereby Atlanta, who held the second overall selection, promised to select Patrik Stefan with the first overall pick, leaving both Sedins available to Vancouver at 2nd and 3rd"

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

IIRC, The Canucks naturally had one of the picks and traded a boatload of future pucks for the other

They had 3rd overall, but Burke swung a series of transactions that gave them 2nd as well along with a promise that Atlanta wouldn't take either Sedin. Atlanta took Patrik Stefan and the biggest piece the Canucks surrendered was Bryan McCabe. It was a masterpiece the likes of which we'll likely never see again.

Prior to the lockout top picks moved with some regularity. Between 1996 and 2004, a top 5 pick was traded every single year. Sometimes inadvertently, sometimes deliberately but in general teams were much more willing to move high end futures. Not just for short term gain, but shuffling picks and prospects to fill needs was quite common. However, that all came to an end with the salary cap and the overall shift to a more risk averse managerial style that has permeated the league since then. In the 13 years since, two top-5 picks have changed hands: Toronto jumping from 7th to 5th in 2008 to take Luke Schenn and the Leafs again in 2011 when they traded two 1sts for Kessel one of which ended up being Seguin at 2nd overall.

It's not a surprise really, 26 of 50 top 5 picks between 2005 and 2015 had at least one all-star game appearance. The top of the draft is really the best way to acquire high end talent, and given that every team out of the playoffs now has a shot at one it's incredibly risky to get rid of one no matter how low the odds. Teams aren't likely to want to move future picks given the relative unpredictability of NHL team success as compared to other sports. If a GM gets it wrong, they're relentlessly criticized for doing so (although too often get given free passes for whiffing on the picks they do keep which is IMO worse).

It's disappointing, but I understand why it happens. Still, I wish the league would do something to encourage trades and player movement in hockey. It's getting incredibly static, and the entertainment value suffers as a result. Still, I can't see GMs going back to their more freewheeling ways unless there was a fairly titanic readjustment of how picks are awarded and valued in the league. A cost controlled, home grown star is just about the most valuable piece in hockey.

HookShot
Dec 26, 2005

Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

IIRC, The Canucks naturally had one of the picks and traded a boatload of future pucks for the other

Yeah, definitely, but as others have pointed out it remains a masterpiece of negotiation and trading that we may never see again in the NHL. I meant "still don't even know" in the "still don't even know how the gently caress he pulled that off" sense.

CBJSprague24
Dec 5, 2010

another game at nationwide arena. everybody keeps asking me if they can fuck the cannon. buddy, they don't even let me fuck it

https://twitter.com/JacketsInsider/status/968955564003704832

Ok, well, this could be a fun team to watch even if they get bounced in the first round. That lineup is also missing Anderson, who died after getting rolled by Orlov late in the Washington game and is out for a month.

Ginette Reno posted:

The biggest time the Rangers got screwed was in 05-06. They had the same chance as the Penguins to draft Crosby. Buffalo and Columbus also had the same chance at him. Buffalo probably would have won a Cup with him. They had a stacked team coming out of the lockout even without him.

But the Rangers not only didn't win that lottery but they also ended up picking 12th where they got the illustrious Marc Staal. Just above him was Kopitar though I have no idea if the Rangers would have taken him had he been available.

Columbus missed out on Kopitar in part because the story goes they'd agreed to take him but Doug MacLean's son liked Gilbert Brule and why would they draft a floaty Euro when they could have a Good Canadian Kid and overruled his scouts and I'm not completely joking about any of that.

Levitate
Sep 30, 2005

randy newman voice

YOU'VE GOT A LAFRENIÈRE IN ME
drat that draft was pretty bad in the 1st round outside of a couple players

Ginette Reno
Nov 18, 2006

How Doers get more done
Fun Shoe

CBJSprague24 posted:

Columbus missed out on Kopitar in part because the story goes they'd agreed to take him but Doug MacLean's son liked Gilbert Brule and why would they draft a floaty Euro when they could have a Good Canadian Kid and overruled his scouts and I'm not completely joking about any of that.

In fairness Gilbert Brule was really hyped that year. He was supposed to be an animal of a forechecker with the ability to put up points as well.

Unfortunately his propensity for dominating junior aged players physically didn't translate to the NHL.

Levitate
Sep 30, 2005

randy newman voice

YOU'VE GOT A LAFRENIÈRE IN ME
wasn't Brule also undersized? He ended up having a bunch of injuries because it turns out playing a reckless style when you're a small guy is pretty hard on the body

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

In his D+1 season Gilbert Brule was one of the most dominant WHL players in history putting up 39 goals and 68pts in 45 games (regular season and playoffs) en route to a memorial cup. He's become the textbook example of a guy rushed into the league, but he was a genuinely fantastic prospect who's career went off the rails due to a combination of injuries, a father who embezzled his money and depression. I wouldn't chalk that one up to misjudgment of his talent as a teenager.

Mind_Taker
May 7, 2007



a false posted:

this is true, but i think the degree of variance between "superstar goaltender" and "pretty good goaltender" is more negligible as far as winning games goes than the difference between "superstar #1 center" and "pretty good player who is your #1 center"

Eh I'm not so sure about that.

http://corsica.hockey/war/

Corsica has made a WAR stat and in terms of goalies Lundqvist has a WAR of ~58 since 2007-08, the next best is Price with ~29. I have no idea how good this WAR stat is but it doesn't surprise me that Lundqvist would have far and away the best WAR of any player, including skaters, since they started tracking it.

Lundqvist's consistency has been remarkable, pretty much unmatched by any goalie. Goalie performances have a ton of variance on a year-to-year basis, except for Lundqvist. Even great goalies like Price, Holtby, Bobrovsky, etc. have had poo poo seasons. Lundqvist should be compared to Hasek when his career is over, not just another really good goalie.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Mind_Taker posted:

Eh I'm not so sure about that.

http://corsica.hockey/war/

Corsica has made a WAR stat and in terms of goalies Lundqvist has a WAR of ~58 since 2007-08, the next best is Price with ~29. I have no idea how good this WAR stat is but it doesn't surprise me that Lundqvist would have far and away the best WAR of any player, including skaters, since they started tracking it.

Lundqvist's consistency has been remarkable, pretty much unmatched by any goalie. Goalie's performances have a ton of variance on a year-to-year basis, except for Lundqvist. He should be compared to Hasek when his career is over.

WAR and GAR both consistently rank goaltenders as the most valuable players in the sport which makes sense because they're the only guys that can affect on ice results more than 40% of the time.

Levitate
Sep 30, 2005

randy newman voice

YOU'VE GOT A LAFRENIÈRE IN ME

Mind_Taker posted:

Eh I'm not so sure about that.

http://corsica.hockey/war/

Corsica has made a WAR stat and in terms of goalies Lundqvist has a WAR of ~58 since 2007-08, the next best is Price with ~29. I have no idea how good this WAR stat is but it doesn't surprise me that Lundqvist would have far and away the best WAR of any player, including skaters, since they started tracking it.

Lundqvist's consistency has been remarkable, pretty much unmatched by any goalie. Goalie performances have a ton of variance on a year-to-year basis, except for Lundqvist. Even great goalies like Price, Holtby, Bobrovsky, etc. have had poo poo seasons. Lundqvist should be compared to Hasek when his career is over, not just another really good goalie.

But since he rarely had years with eye popping numbers he's going to go down as "pretty good" and maybe make the hall based on longevity and not the fact that he was one of the most consistent goalies to play the game throughout his career and was basically relied upon to bail his team out from the day he first stepped on the ice for the Rangers.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Levitate posted:

But since he rarely had years with eye popping numbers he's going to go down as "pretty good" and maybe make the hall based on longevity and not the fact that he was one of the most consistent goalies to play the game throughout his career and was basically relied upon to bail his team out from the day he first stepped on the ice for the Rangers.

He had 7 straight seasons with a SV% above .920, as a Canucks fan during the Luongo/Schneider days and beyond I know what it's like to forget what league average goaltending is like. When he's gone you're going to lament having ever taken numbers like that for granted.

Levitate
Sep 30, 2005

randy newman voice

YOU'VE GOT A LAFRENIÈRE IN ME

ThinkTank posted:

He had 7 straight seasons with a SV% above .920, as a Canucks fan during the Luongo/Schneider days and beyond I know what it's like to forget what league average goaltending is like. When he's gone you're going to lament having ever taken numbers like that for granted.

Oh yeah I sure as poo poo appreciate him, I'm just saying other people look at his stats and think "a .920?? that's barely above average! what a bum!"

Hopefully Shestyorkin can come in and at least be a good goalie for the future but losing that consistency will be rough

Mind_Taker
May 7, 2007



ThinkTank posted:

WAR and GAR both consistently rank goaltenders as the most valuable players in the sport which makes sense because they're the only guys that can affect on ice results more than 40% of the time.

Sure. But he’s been so much better than his goaltending peers over that time period in the same way that Crosby has been better than his peers, which was the original point I was trying to make. He’s a superstar and generational talent.

Spring Break My Heart
Feb 15, 2012
He's near unanimously listed as the best goalie post-Brodeur and has gotten #1 star status for one of the biggest franchises for a decade. I don't think he's underappreciated.

Slappy Pappy
Oct 15, 2003

Mighty, mighty eagle soaring free
Defender of our homes and liberty
Bravery, humility, and honesty...
Mighty, mighty eagle, rescue me!
Dinosaur Gum
Lundqvist is incredible even though my phone tries to spell-correct his name to “Linda it’s”. I was secretly hoping the Caps would do something crazy like trade Holtby and Burakovsky for him. He’s the only top goalie worth his cap hit IMO.

Nissin Cup Nudist
Sep 3, 2011

Sleep with one eye open

We're off to Gritty Gritty land




Levitate posted:

drat that draft was pretty bad in the 1st round outside of a couple players

99 was pretty awful

There was a time where the best player from that draft was Marty Havlat

Jovial Cow
Sep 7, 2006

inherently good
Speaking of Hanks value:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/henrik-lundqvist-deserves-better-than-the-rangers/

See the chart half way down.

glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014


Lundqvist has often been the only thing propping up the Rangers. He has Vezina and was a Hart finalist. He'll make the HoF for sure.

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Spring Break My Heart
Feb 15, 2012

Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

99 was pretty awful

There was a time where the best player from that draft was Marty Havlat
Havlat kicked rear end

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