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I think it's quid
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Mar 17, 2018 21:42
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| # ? Apr 24, 2024 17:50 |
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##vote NGO Here right after the scum kill resolves, immediately pushing for me with what was clearly a setup kill. Scum 101.
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Mar 17, 2018 22:20
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NevergirlsOFFICIAL posted:I think it's quid Probably you or Kash.
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Mar 17, 2018 23:27
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votefinder posted:Votecount for Day 1 votefinder posted:Votecount for Day 2
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Mar 18, 2018 01:09
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So looking at those, on D1 we have: On DC: Somber, Kash, DBD, b-minus (town), flerp, Dancer on B-: DGK, Hal (town) Never, DC (town) On Me: AA (town) JFisk and I not voting. No other votes anywhere. And on D2: On B-: Kash, NGO, DBD, Somber, AA (town), DGK NGO: Me AA (town): JFisk DGK: B- (town) And Dancer and Flerp not voting. The two mis-dunks being driven by basically the same people in Somber, Kash, and DBD is not making me feel great.
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Mar 18, 2018 01:12
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"Driven" is the wrong word, but them being on both ain't grand combined with all three of them being pretty inactive in game / dismissing the game as lacking in content.
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Mar 18, 2018 01:12
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Kash has the most content of the three of them. DGK and B- are his only votes yesterday, combined with his scumlist:Kashuno posted:baddies: fisk, quid, b- I like his content. It's terse but going through and giving some pretty hard opinions with clear reads. Don't think Kashuno is a badman.
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Mar 18, 2018 01:16
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Somber Sits on his early DC vote all of D1. I know he made a lot of posting about how he was busy and how the deadline was at a rough time, but I don't like that he doesn't mention her at all again on D1, especially in light of this after the fact statement: Somberbrero posted:Hey, sorry. That deadline was rough for me. I probably wouldn't have changed my vote though! Boo Quid. Boo Fisk. This is a fine stance to take but I have zero reason why he felt that way about DC because he doesn't mention her at ALL beyond his reason for voting her. Doesn't feel like a "well clearly I thought she was scum and while I was wrong that's the game" type of statement, even though that's what he's trying to play this off as. Other people he's offered opinions on: AA, he starts off by saying poking at his list twice but doesn't make any statement initially of if he feels his listing is alignment indicative or anything, just that he's not getting his conclusions. It's mostly Mafia Style argument. HIS ONLY CASE is on B-. I actually don't even really understand this case? It looks good not knowing B- is town, but with his flip, it kinda makes zero sense to me?? I'm having a hard time putting my finger on why tho. He presents a null read on flerp, calls AA town but then backs off of that after flerp posts about bussing to say he can't see a town reason for AA to vote me, and insists twice that "he made a case" on B- which, as we see above, is not a great case. He also rereads AA's case and goes back to "yeah AA is town." Also has a strong town read on NGO which I don't really get. So far, Somber is looking really good as potential scum. Just enough content and apologies to get by D1, flipflopping, bad casework, sideline discussion to generate posts....not liking his content at all.
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Mar 18, 2018 01:25
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DBD is essentially not committing to anything. Every post he makes with a read comes down to "this is just a gut read" or "well I'd rather go another direction but this is probably the right choice" which is triggering my Scum-O-Tron-8000 scanner a bunch. He also backs down off of basically every read he makes. Look at a bunch of these opinions and how they counterract each other:Deadbeat Dad posted:##vote Dead Cow Deadbeat Dad posted:I'm not too proud of my vote/just general content so far but it's been a hard game to really get any reads. Total walkback of everything he said at EOD. Next, leadup to NGO vs. B-: Deadbeat Dad posted:NGO = weird scummy read, Kash = weird read, b-minus I felt good about D1 but worse about since I realized he could just be posting differently and triyng new tactics as scum. I'm finishing work currently but since the vote and the last few hours there is now actual content to comb through, so I can actually read through and play my game. I'll be pretty active tonight. This is essentially a rehash of his prior post. Deadbeat Dad posted:Other than that, I still have the weird gut on NGO, apparently they play like this when they are scum? I didn't know that, but it would make sense. b-minus I keep flipping back and forth on. I think there's a good chance 2 scum are probably in the Kash/DGK/flerp/Fisk/Dancer group which are 5 people I haven't had time to read, but will get to it. Kind of a soft excusal of a potential NGO mis-dunk, non-committal lock in with B-, non-committal suspicion on 5 people. The rest of this posts includes dismissing AA and I as a town/town slapfight and a callout of Somber that never goes anywhere and which he doesn't offer a hard opinion on. Another large posts that says very little: Deadbeat Dad posted:Guessing if there's a n0 or not is dumb. Don't think info like that should be hidden since it basically would confirm or not confirm night actions but whatever. ....except it includes a walkback from B- again. Anyway, I could go on, but I'll let you read DBD's post history and make your own decisions. Even moreso than Somber, he's posting a lot of stuff that looks like content and analysis but really says very little, especially when you combine it with him walking basically every thought back later on. He makes an NGO vote early yesterday when it's safe to do so, then moves to B-. Don't like his content at all at this point.
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Mar 18, 2018 01:34
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##vote DBD If I had to choose a scumteam right now, it'd be Somber, DBD, and NGO.
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Mar 18, 2018 01:34
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Town Quid Dancer flerp Kashuno No Clue JFisk DGK2000 Scum Deadbeat Dad NevergirlsOFFICIAL Somberbrero Looks pretty accurate to me!
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Mar 18, 2018 01:36
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The AA kill to me is very weird. Knowing AA and I are both town going at each other, I don't see why the scumteam wouldn't leave him alive to continue to distract, unless it was specifically to have this question come up and the only answer be "you're right, Quid, it doesn't make sense for the scumteam to kill AA if you're both town, so therefore you have to be scum." I guess that actually is a pretty strong setup. The other option is that AA was beginning to let go of holding onto me so strongly and look other places, and he moved over to DGK. Maybe the scumteam includes DGK and they were afraid that AA would start realizing he was wrong about me? It's probably more likely it was a setup, which makes NGO's right out the gate statement look real bad. It's a strong set-up to begin discussing the above scenario, but also weak enough that if things go south he can point to me play today and go "I've changed my mind."
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Mar 18, 2018 01:39
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I literally said I can't be around for deadline. Would you rather me keep a vote on NGO who only me and you felt were scummy at the time? Be smart, Quid.
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Mar 18, 2018 01:44
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That addresses a single part of my case and isn't even the most important part, which is that you've been walking back your reads the entire game. Don't like that response from you at all, DBD.
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Mar 18, 2018 01:45
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##vote NGO Nothing has changed for me. Read his content and tell me you feel good about him. I appreciate that he thinks I'm town (or did) in his list, but his post history is sparse. Hard after b-minus, thinks Quid/Fisk might be scummy, made a "player review list" which I always pegged as a scum move back in the day (with like 70% accuracy but I started whiffing by trying to meta that poo poo so meh), but it's a Thing because it's an easy way for scum to provide content in one easy, simple post. Quidthulhu posted:That addresses a single part of my case and isn't even the most important part, which is that you've been walking back your reads the entire game. Don't like that response from you at all, DBD. Your case was I'm not making content, when I've stated that in my posters a few times that it's hard to make reads with 5-6 posters doing one liner content and posting once every 10 hours. You're making it seem like you uncovered some secret truth re: my content this game. Your other read was that I am not 100% fully committed in my votes. The deadline time is loving awful for me and I have to lay a vote down and project who can actually get lynched 7 hours from when I vote because I don't want there to be a no lynch and have my vote being a single vote hanging on somebody that isn't going to get lynched. I am 100% willing to vote for somebody D1 or D2 I might even feel town-leaning on if the majority is deadset in their reads, especially with a vote I have to do well in advance. DC was the better option D1 for the two that were up, and I was never against a b-minus lynch, but felt he had townie responses at times. He also didn't really fight against his accusations with any real aggression so it could've been defeated scum. And I started there is info to get from his lynch so I do want to re-read some people regarding him. I'm still keeping my vote on NGO because nothing has changed for me. Please note Quid that he is not a scumbuddy because I unvoted him for b-minus so that my vote isn't on a unlynchable player when I won't be around for the deadline.
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Mar 18, 2018 01:59
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At least Quid has woken me up in this game a bit, so thank you god bless.
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Mar 18, 2018 02:01
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That should say *posts instead of posters and *stated instead of started, can't type.
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Mar 18, 2018 02:02
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Do you have any other comments on the other analysis I have done, re: Somber, Kashuno? Somber's post especially is pretty long and you ignored it to jump back to NGO.
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Mar 18, 2018 02:03
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Quidthulhu posted:Do you have any other comments on the other analysis I have done, re: Somber, Kashuno? Somber's post especially is pretty long and you ignored it to jump back to NGO. Somber is posting like Somber to me. I have a null read that leans town. And I stand by my comment D1 that there are 100% a few scum hidden in the people that are lurking/haven't/don't really post heavily wordy stuff like Kash/flerp/NGO/DGK/Fisk. (That's not to say they aren't providing content, just less to parse). The real person I'm curious about is Dancer. Nothing has really jumped out from me just reading the natural progression of posts and reading their posts in real time, and they are providing content too. The weird thing about is that nobody seems to even have any opinions formed on Dancer. Actually, scratch that. There are opinions formed on Dancer but not enough that would ever result in casing. Kash said that Dancer isn't really providing any hard alignment reads to their content and DGK thinks Dancer is scummy. You think Dancer is town and AA also thought Dancer was his strongest town read.. so it's a bit interesting how wildly those reads are differing on one player for me and is something interesting to look at (Not necessarily on Dancer himself, but the opinions around a poster like him).
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Mar 18, 2018 02:13
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What do you think about Kash? You only mention him in passing. What do YOU think about Dancer that isn't grounded in other people's opinions? You say you're curious, give all this evidence about how it's weird other people can't get a read on him, but offer no reads yourself?
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Mar 18, 2018 02:15
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##vote dancer too drunk to elevator at so throw myb
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Mar 18, 2018 02:22
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Proud my vote text was either even when yet typing is. T
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Mar 18, 2018 02:23
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Quidthulhu posted:What do you think about Kash? You only mention him in passing. I already stated I don't like Kash too much. I didn't like how he responded to my post where he thought I was just criticizing him for being "wrong", which maybe could've been construed like that but it was obviously not the only thing I disliked. I've questioned his opinions/posting a few times already. He'd be somebody I'd vote for if I didn't feel worse about NGO. I personally read Dancer as town, but didn't think it really needed to be stated or is of importance to you if I'm trying to process and convey that information for my own reads. My point is that usually if reads are that different on one player, it's because people are making them out to be worse/better than they actually are and for a reason. It could just be flat out differences in opinions and reads, but I think that in general people usually feel a central way about players more often than not. Like a majority feeling "okay" about somebody or feeling "iffy" or worse with a player that has reason to be suspected. But when I read what Kash and DGK have to say about Dancer I'm questioning if we're reading the same player, so it does make me pause that the opinions on him differ like that. I read Kash as scummy, and you as town. You read Kash as town and you think Dancer is town, and think I'm scummy. Kash thinks Dancer is scummy. Weird circle we have here.
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Mar 18, 2018 02:30
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Hurmmmmmm. ##unvote I’m gonna think on this a bit.
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Mar 18, 2018 02:44
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Deadbeat Dad posted:The deadline time is loving awful for me and I have to lay a vote down and project who can actually get lynched 7 hours from when I vote because I don't want there to be a no lynch and have my vote being a single vote hanging on somebody that isn't going to get lynched. Quick note, this game is plurality lynch, and this was brought up in several different posts, and I'm surprised you missed it. I get that you're busy, mistakes happen; I'm not going to count this against you (yet).
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Mar 18, 2018 03:01
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Quidthulhu posted:Somber
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Mar 18, 2018 03:03
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Dancer posted:Quick note, this game is plurality lynch, and this was brought up in several different posts, and I'm surprised you missed it. I get that you're busy, mistakes happen; I'm not going to count this against you (yet). I actually read that at some point and glossed over it but yes, did slip my mind. Regardless, would prefer my vote to matter if I'm voting that far ahead rather than just having a statement vote. Especially if a lot of my early stuff was gut and people didn't feel the same way as I did. I realize that my gut alone isn't going to gain much traction and I'm not going to go all in on a casing cause of that unless I'm really, really sure.
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Mar 18, 2018 03:06
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Kashuno posted:##vote dancer too drunk to elevator at so throw myb So, I should go back to your previous post where you actually voiced your complaints against me (since I didn't have a lot of time D2; I kept a few hours free before the deadline but then the hammer happened). Kashuno posted:Next on my random list to read is dancer I take slight issue with your describing my post on AA as bad. I understand that I was going into some pedantic and possibly meaningless arguments, but I will point out that I ended that post with a very specific thing. Dancer posted:AA, do me a favor. Quid is the one person who's most directly in conflict with you. I think there is a chance that that might bias you towards perceiving them as an enemy. Can you play devil's advocate here, assume that you're seeing Quid as a bigger threat than they actually are, and re-read all the stuff the two of you have typed at each other over the past few days. Can you still justify Quid as "strongest scum read"? Note that I am very much not saying that I'm sure they're not scum, just that it looks to me like, if you're legitimately trying to scum-hunt, it's clouding your judgment. As for alignment reads, in general order of confidence. Quid's itchy vote trigger finger bothers me, but it has never happened close to the hammer, and I read his posts as a townie getting frustrated. flerp is probably the worst of the lurkers (tho NGO and JFisk are also bad jfc I get why DBD is frustrated). This is his single post with any content: One third of it is him re-hashing the same psychoanalytic stats bullshit that other people have done on B- One third is him commenting on 6 different low-content posters and placing them in three different categories with little discernible reason (Somb & DBD good, Fisk, Kash & DGK "I don't know because they haven't posted", NGO "I can't possibly know even if they do post") One third of it is him commenting on the Quid/AA slapfight and there's *some* content there, I guess? But, here would be flerp's one chance to comment on two very active posters, who have provided a lot of content... and he proceeds to not reference any of that content at all (because "having dinner right now") Conclusion: between all the lurkers, flerp is my most likely scum pick Somb is, as just mentioned, scummy. For a decent-ish case, read Quid's post that I quoted. JFisk somehow feels like an even bigger lurker than flerp, but doesn't make attempts to cover it up by acting like they're making an effort-post and providing garbage content. lean a bit scum DBD is making some fairly subtle and useful observations, with the caveat that he also tends to not commit to things (best example: his recent observations about me "Hey guys I noticed a thing. What could it mean? Who knows!" lean town Nevergirls my mind reads as lean scum but I'd have a hard time properly justifying. Kash I don't fuckin' know, he's a granite octopus. lean nothing DGK same. Note: DGK and Kash don't seem to like each other.
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Mar 18, 2018 03:44
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It’s kash I think
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Mar 18, 2018 04:30
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##vote kash
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Mar 18, 2018 04:30
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I think quid is scum too but I don’t have the wherewithal to back that up
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Mar 18, 2018 04:37
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Wow. This is a lot to dig into.
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Mar 18, 2018 05:38
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my problem is I really want to believe kash and quid are scum. but I am too drunk/bad at mafia to put any pieces that may exist together. I also really wanted to believe b- was scum and that was horrible idea
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Mar 18, 2018 05:46
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Quidthulhu posted:##vote NGO and you're here at essentially the same time, yes? i don't care for nightkill wifom as a general rule but something is bugging me about AA dying. I assumed Hal was a lurker kill because I don't know why else he'd die, so it's weird that AA was definitely not a lurker. Quid's right that this does look like a setup kill, but he also said there's zero motivation to killing AA if they're both town. assuming the scum are playing to win it just doesn't make any sense. so there's the rub for me. Yes, maybe it is Quid being framed, but if you want Quid dunked, it's just more efficient to leave AA alive because it's a vote that has already been vehemently spoken for. It seems to me like Quid is scum and deliberately baiting this argument giving him ready he was to dig into it. The way he's playing there are no downsides, it's just a risky but smart play if he's scum. It just makes more sense. My vote isn't spoken for just yet but, yeah I think Quid is scum. Looking back a little bit, his explosion at AA is totally manufactured. I know that Quid is very emotional and prone to melting down but this: Anomalous Amalgam posted:With meta on NGO as a lurker being useless apparently, I have to take their in thread activity at face value and I agree it does look decent. does not merit this: Quidthulhu posted:This is frustrating the heck out of me. Quidthulhu posted:Like, I'm harping on this point so hard AA because I BELIEVE YOU ARE TOWN. I want you to stop getting SO STUCK on me and do some more digging into people who there's a chance they are scum! I know I'm not scum, I have my role PM! Clearly you think I'm lying, and that's cool and all, but WE GET IT. Do you REALLY need to continue to prove your case on me? How does that help town, even if you're right? it's super duper fake in retrospect.
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Mar 18, 2018 05:49
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Quidthulhu posted:So looking at those, on D1 we have: if you're going to predicate an argument on a votecount analysis it is highly convenient to neglect to mention that you did not vote day one and made a useless vote day two. for talking about people not contributing, where it counts you have done absolutely nothing of note. two misdunks is not only reasonable, it is statistically likely. you're not an idiot so i know that you know this already, which means you're making an intentionally dishonest argument. while we're pointing out bullshit, Quidthulhu posted:HIS ONLY CASE is on B-. I actually don't even really understand this case? It looks good not knowing B- is town, but with his flip, it kinda makes zero sense to me?? I'm having a hard time putting my finger on why tho. boy howdy i bet the case looks bad with the benefit of hindsight! if it didn't make sense you should have argued that yesterday. if you think it's a flawed case then you could actually take the time to break it down rather than saying 'hey it sucks and so does somber,' yeah? if you think there is something dishonest in the case then that's what should be the meat of your argument here. Instead the crux seems to be 'because binus flipped town.' i'ma keep going but ##vote Quidthulhu because it's obvious at this point. i think the reason i didn't see it before is because you're playing into your meta super well, so congratulations.
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Mar 18, 2018 05:59
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also, hey, my read on flerp was absolutely not neutral. i was heavily leaning scum. i think i still am.
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Mar 18, 2018 06:01
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i feel like every nevergirls case is 'just look at 'em!!!' I did look at 'em and I don't see it. Give me something else to work with. It seems pretty clear that if NGO is scum, they're not partners with Quid so that's probably coloring my view a bit.
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Mar 18, 2018 06:17
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for once i don't intend to be rude when saying that dancer's biggish post doesn't say much. it's mostly just me-tooing without a lot of original thought? i feel like i've already responded to him in addressing quid.
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Mar 18, 2018 06:21
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it's dolph!!!! (kash is doplh)
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Mar 18, 2018 07:00
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| # ? Apr 24, 2024 17:50 |
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Why am I dolph Also it’s not me come on
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Mar 18, 2018 13:43
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