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Spergatory
Oct 28, 2012
It's pretty easy to tell who is who originally because they started the game in color coded outfits. OG Malolo is dressed in bright warm colors, while OG Naviti is in dark cool colors.

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ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.

Propaganda Machine posted:

What? No. Libby blindsided him/them.

So did Donathan. Yeah Libby gave Morgan some hope (and her parting remark doesn't help Libby's case) but James was the lynchpin behind the strike on Morgan.

I don't really seen new green tribe losing next week (they're pretty stacked), so odds are either Libby or Michael is going home next week anyway. I imagine there'll probably be an idol found on the green tribe beach too before they merge.

Propaganda Machine
Jan 2, 2005

Truthiness!
They don't know that. I'm all for the whinefest about how females don't "get to" play the same game guys do, but if you're spending enough time building enough false hope to get a vote-out reaction like Libby did, I'm going to assume she personally went too far.

Spergatory
Oct 28, 2012

ApplesandOranges posted:

So did Donathan. Yeah Libby gave Morgan some hope (and her parting remark doesn't help Libby's case) but James was the lynchpin behind the strike on Morgan.

I don't really seen new green tribe losing next week (they're pretty stacked), so odds are either Libby or Michael is going home next week anyway. I imagine there'll probably be an idol found on the green tribe beach too before they merge.

Maximum comedy option; Yanuya tries to throw the challenge so they can vote out Chris, Chris is completely unaware and somehow solo beast modes them to victory anyway.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Next time they do a returnees season they should put Chris on the same tribe with Coach

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

Propaganda Machine posted:

They don't know that. I'm all for the whinefest about how females don't "get to" play the same game guys do, but if you're spending enough time building enough false hope to get a vote-out reaction like Libby did, I'm going to assume she personally went too far.
I agree with you. It's not like Libby was scheming to stick the knife in Morgan but she participated in it, and then flat out said something like, "Don't think I'm innocent just because I'm pretty," which kind of amplified the betrayal and it's basically that line of hers that Dom is echoing when he talks about her being dangerous

ApplesandOranges posted:

I also find it interesting that Kelly and Desiree were pitching to get rid of James instead of Michael. They've seen first hand that Michael is dangerous, and they know Angela has a bond with James. If you want to sway someone who's on the edge, pitching to vote out their ally isn't the best appeal. It worked out for them, at least.
Yeah, when Angela is seemingly the swing vote, I don't know why neither side didn't just ask who which person she'd like to vote off on the other side. Telling her James's name instead of Michael's seemed like a really bold move after he was one of the Malolos that kept her in the game, and when you kind of need her vote.

So I figured, oh, Michael must have come together with Kellyn/desiree, agreed to vote James, and put himself ahead of Angela in the pecking order.

Preview talk: Buuut preview for next episode shows him saying he's in trouble again. So who knows?

Looks like Bradley might do something extra lovely next episode?

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.

Spergatory posted:

Maximum comedy option; Yanuya tries to throw the challenge so they can vote out Chris, Chris is completely unaware and somehow solo beast modes them to victory anyway.

Isn't this what happened on Cagayan? Cliff was the target but because there was a hoop challenge they avoided tribal council despite trying very hard to throw it.

Lone Goat
Apr 16, 2003

When life gives you lemons, suplex those lemons.




IcePhoenix posted:

Next time they do a returnees season they should put Chris on the same tribe with Coach

Coach was on the RHAP Know it Alls podcast last night and had a fun exchange about this very topic!

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Propaganda Machine posted:

My Natalie White apologism is coming in usefully, I suppose. Where she bonded casually with the Galus on a human level, it seemed like Libby extorted everything she had with Morgan (namely the Catholocism). Again with the 72 hours of gameplay per 42 minute episode, Morgan seemed like a cool, rational enough player that Libby must have carved something deep to elicit the reaction Morgan gave on her way out. It's not a stretch to figure that the impression that Libby gave to Morgan rubbed off on Dom (and maybe Wendell, I guess) and left a sour taste in the mouth.

I understand the argument of "the shrill female," but in this case it's a narrative they've been building, however subtly.

Yeah, if it was just a random comment from Dom it would be suspect but Morgan went there weeks ago so its a pattern. Libby did SOMETHING to burn two Survivors so early into the game. She managed to make herself stand out as "betraying" the Malolos somehow and like you can only assume that means she badly misplayed her social game so that it felt exploitative and manipulative to them. Its tough to know how bad or fair that is having not seen it but its definitely not a creation of Dom's mind/biases.

Like there's a classic game mistake where all your allies are saying "Eh, I don't know if X is safe" and you're saying "Oh, X, I love you! I'd never vote against you! You're super safe!" When X goes home and the math adds up its that second person who takes the heat.

STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 19:54 on Mar 29, 2018

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

Possible discussion topic
https://twitter.com/DaltonRoss/status/979326174538149889

Zesty
Jan 17, 2012

The Great Twist

Rarity posted:

Is it just me or is there something really creepy about Dom going 'Libby is a beautiful lady Satan' when she's essentially done nothing this whole game?

Everyone is doing stuff even if it's not making air.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

That's silly. You can argue that the advantages are artificially created drama but it doesn't change the fact that drama is interesting and these Tribals aren't. Its not a question of if its "normal" or "organic". They don't have to pull out an idol to be interesting. We just haven't gotten interesting Tribals the past few weeks because we've gotten boring tribal lines that don't bend.

Spergatory
Oct 28, 2012
Dom and Chris are the people around which tribal lines are flexible because they're so concerned with each other, and they keep not going to tribal council.

bbf2
Nov 22, 2007

"The White Shadow"

ApplesandOranges posted:

Isn't this what happened on Cagayan? Cliff was the target but because there was a hoop challenge they avoided tribal council despite trying very hard to throw it.

That was a combination of Cliff’s solo prowess as well as the complete ineptitude of the Brains tribe.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Spergatory posted:

Dom and Chris are the people around which tribal lines are flexible because they're so concerned with each other, and they keep not going to tribal council.

Bradley also seems like he might be capable of being toxic enough to just turn his tribemates against him. But its a question of if he can contain that side of him we see in Confessionals away from the Tribe. The fact that Michael and the Mololos were so vocal about him make me suspect he's been wearing on more people than we've seen.

Propaganda Machine
Jan 2, 2005

Truthiness!
He's an arrogant alpha who's both condescending and a relentless pessimist. It's not a great combination.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING
This episode gave me hope for the season, and retroactively made the prior episodes better. It's very character-based, although it's still frustrating that almost all of the big characters are men.
Because there's not all this intricate strategy pre-merge, it's forced the editors to try something else. and this episode we got to know a lot of the players better, and it solidified some impressions.

Is anyone else thinking Desiree and Kellyn are screwed early to mid merge? I think it was James who was talking about how it's bad play to foreclose any possibility of working with the other side, and in the modern era of Survivor, this is absolutely true. I guess maybe they've made an arrangement with Michael, but if the show's not showing it, it probably isn't a factor.

Dom and Wendell remain top contenders, with Laurel as an UTR possibility. Kellyn's getting a lot of attention from some parties, but there's too many alarm bells for me. Including her being overly pleased by her NAVITI STRONG strategy to the point of not considering cross-tribe alliance at all. and Edit Watching For Babbies is, watch for relationships built between players. Kellyn had nothing strong set up until this last episode revealed her and Desiree were rock-solid.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Its too early for me to write off anyone's chances, but yeah, I get the same short sighted "Navati Strong" vibe from Desiree and Kellyn that you do. Some players just get locked up in the short game and don't realize everyone else is preparing for when its time to blow it all up at merge. And Kellyn seems a little bit too proud of her game play right now.

But we'll see. Kellyn was sharp enough to realize the risk of playing the Ghost Island game and it probably saved her and her crew's asses. So she might see more than we know. And I haven't seen near enough about Desiree to get a sense of her besides this bad week/episode.

Lone Goat
Apr 16, 2003

When life gives you lemons, suplex those lemons.




Spatula City posted:

Is anyone else thinking Desiree and Kellyn are screwed early to mid merge? I think it was James who was talking about how it's bad play to foreclose any possibility of working with the other side, and in the modern era of Survivor, this is absolutely true. I guess maybe they've made an arrangement with Michael, but if the show's not showing it, it probably isn't a factor.

So Kellyn and Desiree should have instead voted for Desiree? Don't think you thought this plan all the way through.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
My guesses on the next boot, depending on who loses:

Malolo: It's hard to see why Michael wouldn't be the next boot unless he finds an idol. But I could see Kellyn and Desiree deciding to 'replace' Angela with Michael; they've been together longer, and Michael is someone you could reason with, while Angela is very morality-based. We don't know where the girls stand on Dom v Chris, but if they want to be fluid, then Angela's a detriment to them playing both sides.

Naviti: I honestly can't see it being anyone other than Libby, unless she and Donathan somehow flip Chelsea to vote out, say, Bradley.

Yawhatever: Probably won't lose, but if they do... probably Jenna? Her social game seems to be a bit worse than Laurel, and the boys seem tight. Chris could annoy Wendell enough for him to flip, but he seems laid-back enough to just grin and bear it.

Schlonged Again
Jan 30, 2016


I think the problem is partly this, but mostly it's that the constant and pointless tribe swaps have ruined the pre-merge game. It's been an issue for a few seasons now, but it's very evident this season.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Really we've just had lovely luck with the swaps that Naviti keeps rolling an advantage every time. The fact that it went 3-2 Naviti on all three tribes is just dumb and even Jeff was dumbfounded by the bad luck.

Metis of the Chat Thread
Aug 1, 2014


I forgot to mention this, but I really liked Laurel in this episode. Good social instincts, and a good narrator too.

I hope Laurel and Donathan become a power pair at some point.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Laurel's a low key potential favorite. She seems to have good social skills, instincts, and game sense. She's also done really well with challenges from my memory. Seeing her do stuff early like make cross tribal connections with Dominick and Wendell and also manage Chris' ego to stay good with him are the sort of early game stuff that can signal a good player down the line.

Also I just like her.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

I don't think Kellyn will have trouble making new social bonds at the merge, because I think she has a natural ability with that sort of thing. However, I do see some red flags. She was shown crying when Stephanie was talking at TC before being voted out, and in his exit press Brendan said he was pretty sure the vote would be on him because she started crying when he was talking to her pre-tribal. So my concern is a) she telegraphs stuff, b) she might not have a big betrayal in her, and c) she is the most likely player in a long time to Kimmel her FTC, and spend it crying and apologizing for her game. But I think she has the social likability to make it near the end, and to the end if she's not perceived as too much of a beloved player to bring all the way.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

Schlonged Again posted:

I think the problem is partly this, but mostly it's that the constant and pointless tribe swaps have ruined the pre-merge game. It's been an issue for a few seasons now, but it's very evident this season.
I think a lot of the time swaps mix up tribal lines more which helps prevent a boring post-merge. And in a season like MvX, all three post-swap tribes flipped on their pre-swap majorities. I am fine with 1-2 swaps, I think

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Yeah, I feel like she's just a little too earnest and its gonna come back to bite her. It should help socially come merge but I just don't see her having the game savvy necessary to win.

But like I said, its too early and too little information to really know.

pog boyfriend
Jul 2, 2011

Theres no such thing as finland. its not real

E: aaaaaaaaaaaah please ignore i am Trying to get to the finland thread but im a moron so sorry >__>

SLICK GOKU BABY
Jun 12, 2001

Hey Hey Let's Go! 喧嘩する
大切な物を protect my balls


pog boyfriend posted:

Theres no such thing as finland. its not real

E: aaaaaaaaaaaah please ignore i am Trying to get to the finland thread but im a moron so sorry >__>

The finland thread isn't real.

Zesty
Jan 17, 2012

The Great Twist
Survivor Finland: Introverts vs Introverts

Zesty
Jan 17, 2012

The Great Twist
And today you’ll be playing for reward...

Lutefisk served after an afternoon at the sauna.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008

Fast Luck posted:

I think a lot of the time swaps mix up tribal lines more which helps prevent a boring post-merge. And in a season like MvX, all three post-swap tribes flipped on their pre-swap majorities. I am fine with 1-2 swaps, I think

In MvGX they only swapped once, and the first swap was 12 days in instead of 6 days in so the original tribes had time to fracture.

The 3 seasons since MvGX have had much more frequent tribe swaps (5 swaps in 2 seasons, with no tribe configuration lasting more than 3 rounds) and have had much less exciting votes that are generally along tribal lines. The only exciting post-swap pre-merge votes in the past 3 seasons have been when an idol was used or could have been used.

Another observation is that the only two seasons that started with 2 tribes of 10 and swapped in Episode 3 ended up merging with original tribe numbers at 9-4. If the next boot this season is another original Malolo, that's three out of three times. Will Ghost Island reverse the curse???

Lone Goat
Apr 16, 2003

When life gives you lemons, suplex those lemons.




Schlonged Again posted:

I think the problem is partly this, but mostly it's that the constant and pointless tribe swaps have ruined the pre-merge game. It's been an issue for a few seasons now, but it's very evident this season.

If they didn't swap tribes then Malolo would probably keep losing tribe immunity challenges and the end results would be.... a bunch of Malolo going home!

Zesty
Jan 17, 2012

The Great Twist
Tribe swaps are, in fact, good.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008

Lone Goat posted:

If they didn't swap tribes then Malolo would probably keep losing tribe immunity challenges and the end results would be.... a bunch of Malolo going home!

If you mean the first swap, that might be true but we would have gotten to see more interesting dynamics with Stephanie playing both sides between the Pretty People vs. Nerds division they hinted at when Jacob got voted out and then was never mentioned again after that since all of the other votes came down to what color you wore the first day.

Also the reason the first two votes on Malolo were consensus near-unanimous votes was almost certainly because people were expecting a tribe swap in Ep 3. A bunch of the 34 cast members mentioned that as the reason for the first two consensus boots that season. Even though the second vote was supposed to be a climactic close vote between Tony and Sandra, everyone just piled on Tony because why draw a line in the sand and piss of 5 other people when you might swap into a new tribe with them and 5 strangers next round?

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
I mean, if Jacob had gone home in the first TC instead of being saved by Ghost Island, there would likely have been a shake-up. Either Gonzalez would have snaked her way in and made some allies, or painted a bigger target on herself.

Spergatory
Oct 28, 2012

Zesty posted:

Tribe swaps are, in fact, good.

Tribe swaps, like anything else, need to be done at the right time in the right way. I've seen this brought up elsewhere; if you swap too early (especially on a tribe that hasn't been to tribal council), the pecking order doesn't have time to crystallize in people's minds, meaning people on the bottom don't yet realize they're on the bottom and have no incentive to flip if their tribe gets a majority. Swaps either need to be later or take place after both tribes have gone to TC at least once to be truly effective, otherwise the majority tribe has zero incentive to deviate and you get boring 'sit on the numbers' gameplay.

Lone Goat posted:

If they didn't swap tribes then Malolo would probably keep losing tribe immunity challenges and the end results would be.... a bunch of Malolo going home!

I'd rather see Malolos going home because they can't get their poo poo together as a tribe than because 'gently caress you, we have the majority.'

Spergatory
Oct 28, 2012
EDIT: Why did this post twice?

Zesty
Jan 17, 2012

The Great Twist
The later the swap, the more dependent people get on their original tribe's identity and that just leads to pagonging.

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Adus
Nov 4, 2009

heck

Zesty posted:

Survivor Finland: Introverts vs Introverts

Survivor Finland: Everyone Is From A Power Metal Band

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