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Tl;dr after binus flipped town I was basically close to a null read on everyone so I re-read the entire thread (insofar possible with limited patience, that's a lot of posts) and thought kb was under the radar and too much of a "follower". It's a gut read, I got nothing better (other than B who shouldn't be allowed in games relying on social interaction until her parents socialize her properly). Anyone else is free to ask me whatever and I'll answer if I get wifi again).
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Aug 5, 2018 09:32
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| # ? Apr 25, 2024 22:57 |
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how the hell did no one post the whole time I was asleep and all morning till I got on the bus?! welp, guess it's that time, this one goes out to my dead homies AA and B- ##vote Dancer Sorry I never called out his "anti-social" shtick to justify his votes before. Man he sure is laying it on thick now, hey
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Aug 5, 2018 22:58
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It's Evo weekend ##vote Dancer
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Aug 5, 2018 23:12
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Hang on ##unvote I just counted and I don't think Nep-Nep and Xad have met the required postcount yet. Just in case the game doesn't end after Dancer dies I'll hang back for a bit.
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Aug 5, 2018 23:26
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Jeabus Mahogany posted:Hang on ##unvote I just counted and I don't think Nep-Nep and Xad have met the required postcount yet. Just in case the game doesn't end after Dancer dies I'll hang back for a bit. Depending on the numbers and what happens tonight, if we go into another day that's probably lylo. If I end up with a lurker gun trained on me tomorrow, shoot me so you can see my flip early and narrow it down. ##vote Dancer
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Aug 5, 2018 23:40
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Jeabus Mahogany posted:Hang on ##unvote I just counted and I don't think Nep-Nep and Xad have met the required postcount yet. Just in case the game doesn't end after Dancer dies I'll hang back for a bit. eep really ##unvote I got lunch around deadline so I'll revote then
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Aug 5, 2018 23:40
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Oh, crap have I really not posted that much?
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Aug 5, 2018 23:45
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Well, I'm ok with voting dancer
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Aug 5, 2018 23:45
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Nep-Nep posted:Depending on the numbers and what happens tonight, if we go into another day that's probably lylo. If I end up with a lurker gun trained on me tomorrow, shoot me so you can see my flip early and narrow it down. I admire this idea a lot, if there's another night of no deaths, yeah it could work if it actually does get down to LYLO though (as opposed to MYLO), we wouldn't have the spare numbers for it to be a free shot anymore of course
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Aug 5, 2018 23:45
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Xad posted:Well, I'm ok with voting dancer ooh there you are, hurry up and post some more junk then I can vote before work starts 
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Aug 5, 2018 23:46
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I...think that's ten right?
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Aug 5, 2018 23:47
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Xad posted:I...think that's ten right? looks like it? post again to vote and it should be over the line, yeah
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Aug 5, 2018 23:49
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Welp, ##vote dancer
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Aug 5, 2018 23:50
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Xad posted:I...think that's ten right? It is by my count. I checked KB too obviously and he looks to have just made the count too. Double-check if you want
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Aug 5, 2018 23:50
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yep, KB's got 10 ##vote Dancer
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Aug 5, 2018 23:52
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That should be everyone I'll still wait a bit in case KB wants to get a last word in
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Aug 5, 2018 23:56
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I guess it's go time.
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Aug 6, 2018 00:43
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##vote Dancer
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Aug 6, 2018 00:44
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Aug 6, 2018 00:47
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 Dancer, Rafael, Town aligned Vanilla was sent to the Shadow Realm! It is now Night 7, please submit all actions for 11pm EST on the 7th of August
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Aug 6, 2018 00:59
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Aug 6, 2018 01:11
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I agree. Blingee is good!
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Aug 6, 2018 01:18
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Nep-Nep posted:I agree. Blingee is good! Legit that is why I posted the gif. Amazing blingee.
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Aug 6, 2018 01:20
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All night actions have been processed! Jeabus Mahogany, Mako Tsunami, Town aligned Vanilla was sent to the Shadow Realm! Lurker Guns No lurker guns today! Thanks! The deadline for Day 8 is Tuesday the 7th of August at 11pm EST Good luck!
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Aug 6, 2018 13:41
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Bifauxnen posted:congrats on your impending scum win, KB I will laugh extra hard if this is true
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Aug 6, 2018 13:58
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 FREE AT LAST
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Aug 6, 2018 14:02
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Votecount for Day 8 Not Voting (4): Bifauxnen, King Burgundy, Nep-Nep, XadWith 4 alive, it's 3 votes to execute. The current deadline is August 07th, 2018 at 11 p.m. EDT -- that's in about 1 day, 12 hours.
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Aug 6, 2018 15:06
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Jeabus Mahogany posted:ok so here's where I'm at right now: So Jeabus was killed, and his two top suspects were Dancer and Nep-Nep. Dancer we know now is town, soooo if this wasn't a random kill, I'mma reread Nep
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Aug 6, 2018 16:15
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Bifauxnen posted:I will laugh extra hard if this is true I would too! --- Also, Pigeon flip was great.
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Aug 6, 2018 17:46
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Couple things I want to look at today. But I think my go to pick will still be Nep. I should have time tonight to look things over.
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Aug 6, 2018 17:48
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Natural 20 posted:
Oh what the hell Jeabus! Most likely I'm going to be thinking KB for today, I've already stated why but will take time to go back over everyone's posting to see the points for and against each player. Another tactic, if we don't feel decided, would be to choose to vote nobody today, and force scum to eliminate a suspect in the night. This runs a risk here though, that if they somehow have a way to get a double kill, we might just hand them the game.
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Aug 6, 2018 18:50
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Nep-Nep posted:
Interesting that Nep brought this up here Nep-Nep posted:I've been trying to look back into the earlier part of the game and I noticed this. iirc Nep was the first to bring up the possibility of "scum bussed Sal because his special card was destroyed, making him a liability" Nep-Nep posted:I get what you're implying there Dancer, by that reasoning anyone who says they didn't kill anyone last night looks bad. That alone means nothing. Nep-Nep posted:Oh, the way you said that I thought you were trying to say that because I didn't kill someone last night that damns me and clears b-minus or something. These two posts above are...odd? From a quick reread, overall I feel like Nep is giving themselves excuses and being overly defensive. I don't think any of these posts on their own are scummy, but kindof as a whole it seems odd to me how much Nep keeps defending themself. Nep-Nep posted:After some careful consideration, I will vote Beet if it's the only way to prevent NL but my opinion is this: I'm also still a bit wary of anyone who insisted on voting for ghgd, since prioritizing a 3P over actual scumhunting is usually pretty scummy. KB is the one that actually dayvigged him, tho. Nep > KB > Bif right now
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Aug 6, 2018 21:17
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Nep-Nep posted:Oh what the hell Jeabus! yeah anything could happen at night, this is not safe what coulda been safe is shooting you with the lurker gun so if you're town we're left with good old 3-man LYLO, but what happened to you getting shot with the lurker gun? 
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Aug 6, 2018 21:36
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Bifauxnen posted:what coulda been safe is shooting you with the lurker gun so if you're town we're left with good old 3-man LYLO, but what happened to you getting shot with the lurker gun? I just recounted now and I made exactly 10 posts yesterday, that's my bad. Which is a shame because I'd not have a single objection to being shot right now. I don't suppose any of you have been hiding a dayvig? If so let me know and I'll get out my last reads and you can kill me. You don't want to vote me though, I am town and unless scum can be blocked somehow tonight that's gonna be the game.
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Aug 6, 2018 21:51
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Nep-Nep posted:I just recounted now and I made exactly 10 posts yesterday, that's my bad. Which is a shame because I'd not have a single objection to being shot right now. I don't suppose any of you have been hiding a dayvig? If so let me know and I'll get out my last reads and you can kill me. You don't want to vote me though, I am town and unless scum can be blocked somehow tonight that's gonna be the game. lol I was just thinking I wanted to check that, if you sounded all nice with your self-sacrificial signoff but that got you just barely to 10
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Aug 7, 2018 00:13
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also you should be getting out your last reads anyway, dayvig or not this is most likely the last day
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Aug 7, 2018 00:14
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Here are my thoughts on each player. It's my hope one of you has a dayvig hidden, or if you happened to draw one last night. After this post, if you do, please use it to kill me. That way you all will be sure about me and be able to work out the best option from there. KB- I have gone over my thoughts on KB. I don't particularly have anything to add at this time. I felt that his casing has leaned a bit heavily on near-hammer vote analysis earlier in the game but in the past couple days that hasn't been as much of a thing. Bif- Though Bifauxnen has barked up the wrong tree repeatedly, I feel like her overall image is as white as a sheet. It bothered me that she's still alive and I don't feel like anybody's made a serious attempt to case her, so I really put her posts throughout the game under a microscope. If Bif is scum and wins, it's a deserved win. Even if I work from the conclusion "Bif is scum" and work backwards, I don't have a case. Bif is town, and if not then a round of hi-fives for the scum team for the Beet play and the careful balance of busses and aggressive play that would imply. My analysis yesterday made me believe Xad was town, and I wasn't expecting anything to change that either, but I noticed a weird coincidence. It could be that it's nothing more than that but I wanted to bring it up because it struck me as really weird. Xad posted:Yeah, if I had to guess, 50 used something like Swords of Revealing Light or something to block...I guess everything? Xad posted:Oh, actually this is important: One of the cards I have is a spell that prevents a player from doing ANYTHING except drawing cards for the next 3 nights. Soooo not sure who to use it on, but if we can come up with a #1 and #2 scumbos we can lunch one and Swords of Revealing Light the other one Yesterday Xad revealed that Jeabus was the one who got visited by the sword, and Jeabus confirmed this. It is a fact that n4 CCKeane swapped cards with someone. Xad admitted to doing this, and nobody protested this. It just seems like a wild coincidence though that Xad mentioned this specific card and then happened to get it by trading with someone. It's not impossible, butanother possibility is that Xad mentioned that card as a breadcrumb to bring it up later, had Humalong swap cards (KK probably couldn't have done it, I think he roleblocked me n4) with CCKeane, and then Humalong, not having a power role and already having heat on them, put up no fight whatsoever d5 to take the evidence to the graveyard. A stumble block I ran into with this theory is that it was b-minus who killed CCKeane, and b-minus was town, but if this was what Xad did, then it would be important to kill CCKeane so Xad's claim and actions would not have to match CCKeane's knowledge of her own former hand. After b-minus' flip and nobody claiming to have blocked anyone n5, I thought scum just decided to withhold the kill, possibly to go for Exodia pieces. But another possibility has presented itself- If Xad is scum, then the most likely scenario is that scum and B-minus picked the same person to kill, which turned into an unfortunate coincidence for b-minus. By this interpretation, that would also explain why there was no night kill n6. At first I thought scum might have withheld the kill so as to frame whoever was hit with Xad's sword card, but nobody ever showed any interest in pushing that angle, and if scum was up to that, I feel like they would've just done it again, but that never happened. It would be better for scum to lay low and make us consider lynching Jeabus if scum isn't Xad. That would give them another night to do other actions, draw cards, whatever, and would also lower the risk they run afoul of a trap card. Now, that concludes the night analysis. I am going to do some light day analysis. Unfortunately, this isn't as much my strong suit but there are a couple things that jumped out at me with Xad. First off, other than what I already talked about, Xad was light about making explicit mention of cards. Here is another one from early in the game. Xad posted:
Xad claimed the card used to swap hands was called Card Exchange. Of note is that b-minus said that no such card was spotted in the graveyard. I'm not sure what, if anything, that means. It could have just been a mod error, but this is a fairly early namedrop and has a similar function to a card Xad later claimed to actually play. Once again, a coincidence, but the more coincidences the more suspicious I feel. Here are a couple statements that by themselves don't bother me, from the first few days of the game: Xad posted:Also this last bit is completely untrue. Everyone can draw cards to get more abilities. This game is basically full of JOATs as far as I can tell Xad posted:I tracked and confirmed a town bus driver n1 in the last game I was in, it's a fun role Then this more recently: Xad posted:If nothing else, I'm a bit sus on Dancer because bus driver is usually not a town role, but everyone is a JOAT so that line of thinking doesn't hold up too well. Backs off that statement on in the same post but it seems like a line of thinking that wouldn't genuinely follow given those earlier posts. Moving on, Xad called me on this statement today: Nep-Nep posted:There's a third possibility- neither of those things happened to scum, b-minus is scum, did a night kill or took credit for it and is pretending it was a vig. But Xad also responded to that with this: Xad posted:I had that thought as well, just didn't think to actually write it into that post because I am very smart Since Xad already had the thought and later seems to use it as a point against me, I don't like this, like it was a trap to let somebody make that statement, so that later when b-minus flipped town it could be used against whoever said it first. I know this is all a bit disorganized at this point but I'm picking this apart as I go. On CCKeane's death Xad posted:I'm assuming since he hasn't corrected me that he killed CCKeane, an odd choice since the thread knew I swapped hands with CCKeane (and that CCKeane basically had nothing left in their hand) I'm bothered by this because while we haven't seen solid proof of it yet, a key point in Bif's push on Beet d3 was that Beet scumslipped by expressing knowledge that there are actions in the game that are not cards (when debating ghogd's flag action). In other words, swapping hands with someone doesn't necessarily clear them as town, so B-minus wouldn't be completely off-base in that sense. D4, Xad voted for IS and stayed on the vote even after the claim, which was also done by KK. The issue I have with perceiving Xad as scum here is there's something that doesn't add up in the evidence. Xad claimed to destroy Sal's special card n2 which had the effect "card steal on kill." This is where I hit a roadblock. It is a fact that scum got two kills n2, which has not happened since. Xad questioned Sal if anything happened to them n2, and nobody else had anything to say about that, no "I also visited Sal n2" or anything like that. I don't think the scum team would have chosen to destroy one of their own night kills. Therefore, if I am interpreting all those facts correctly, I think Xad has to be town? At which point I'd want to vote for KB. But I'm bugged about those card name coincidences. I've been working under the assumption that Sal's card is effectively "card steal and kill" but it could also be something like "Hold: While held, you automatically steal a card from anyone killed." The problem is that wouldn't match up with the night kills. The only thing I can think of is that I happen to hold in my hand a trap card that either blocks or doubles the effect of any night action taken against me if I were to set it. But I didn't have that card out, and I wasn't targeted as evidenced by me still being alive. I can't think of a way to resolve this issue. I might be way up on a coincidence here that caused me to see stuff that isn't there. I'm not ending this post on a vote in part because I don't know.
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Aug 7, 2018 00:39
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FLAVOR ALERT
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oh lol I forgot I actually mentioned that card earlier, the card in actual ygo prevents your opponent from attacking for 3 turns, so when I was trying to think of a card that would block EVERY NIGHT ACTION, I guessed it might've been that iirc, I played Card Exchange the same turn that b- looked at the graveyard, which is why he didn't see it in there
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Aug 7, 2018 00:56
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The way I look at it, Xad, is if you aren't telling the truth about Sal, then that itself would mean the stars aligned just right and... I don't buy that, and I can't imagine why so early in the game scum would go out of their way to shoot themselves in the foot. I do feel the most valuable resource the scum team can have is trust. You may have gained a fair amount of trust with the situation with Sal, but if that's what the scum team did... I just can't see it. That coincidence with the card was really weird to me though and I needed to pursue it. I also just can't find a problem with Bif's play, if this is a scum game it's really well played. No case there. Overall I'm still most likely to vote KB at this time.
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Aug 7, 2018 01:02
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| # ? Apr 25, 2024 22:57 |
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Nep-Nep posted:The way I look at it, Xad, is if you aren't telling the truth about Sal, then that itself would mean the stars aligned just right and... I don't buy that, and I can't imagine why so early in the game scum would go out of their way to shoot themselves in the foot. I do feel the most valuable resource the scum team can have is trust. You may have gained a fair amount of trust with the situation with Sal, but if that's what the scum team did... I just can't see it. That coincidence with the card was really weird to me though and I needed to pursue it. Same, honestly. I think you sound towny-er with your most recent posts. It IS kinda bugging me that it's endgame and KB and Bif are still both here though, even in a game where they were both SKs, town lunched one of them by endgame
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Aug 7, 2018 01:08
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