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SimonChris posted:Well, it's just one poll with a low sample size. 538 still has him down by 5 points on average. well polled large state down by 5 points or so? he has a chance I just wouldn't bet on him
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Nov 1, 2018 22:11
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Getting one chamber should be enough. Elijah Cummings with subpoena power can do some damage.
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Nov 1, 2018 22:14
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Typo posted:If beto wins chances are TN falls too, so do NV/AZ Eh, before Beto became a huge national figure and raised whatever absurd amount of money he has now, I'd have agreed. Now he could win and the others still lose. Maybe. Like, freaky poo poo is afoot.
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Nov 1, 2018 22:21
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Nate tweeted this poll yesterday https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1057758755583156226
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Nov 1, 2018 22:29
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It's seriously race-by-race. The Tennessee guy's support totally collapsed when he said he'd vote for Kavanaugh. A shitload of his staff and donors quit and his polling has fallen ever since. Heitkamp in N.D. was an uphill battle to get re-elected, but then she shot herself in the foot really badly by naming sexual assault survivors in an ad without OKing it with them first. Senate races are individual races. Bad candidates happen all over the place, but it happens like equally with both parties, so the effects wash out on a big aggregate level like the U.S. House or the thousands of state lege races.
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Nov 1, 2018 22:29
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PostNouveau posted:It's seriously race-by-race. And here I thought it was Beto was sucking all the funding out of those other races that was going to make democrats lose!
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Nov 1, 2018 22:46
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Shear Modulus posted:nominating a cop was going to bring over so many moderate republicans though Her opponent was a private equity bro son of a former governor though. Pick your poison.
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Nov 1, 2018 22:57
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There's a plane flying around Austin right now with a “
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Nov 1, 2018 23:01
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Sab0921 posted:Her opponent was a private equity bro son of a former governor though. Pick your poison. yea I hate Lupe but I also can't say I'm somehow upset that fuckin White didn't win, so good job texas dems
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Nov 1, 2018 23:02
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zoux posted:Ugh it just occurred to me that Sylvester Turner is probably gonna run for governor in 2022. This won't happen. It's a lot harder to run his grift at the state level (it's not hard to run a grift at the state level, just hard to do it with a Republican infrastructure all around you).
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Nov 1, 2018 23:05
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zoux posted:There's a plane flying around Austin right now with a “ Because America is crying out for tax relief, some rich dude paid for that to fly around cities where Beto is at the time - it was flying around Houston last week.
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Nov 1, 2018 23:06
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Sab0921 posted:Her opponent was a private equity bro son of a former governor though. Pick your poison. Yeah they were both not very good. I'm firmly in the "Castro should have run" camp
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Nov 1, 2018 23:09
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Another +2 for Beto. My parents voted straight Democrat this morning, at the same place I voted at. According to them there was no line this time and no funny business with the machines. I hope the TX state house gets a whole bunch of D’s. My dad is a retired teacher and it’d be just super if he didn’t lose his benefits.
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Nov 1, 2018 23:10
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Why is Turner bad?
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Nov 1, 2018 23:11
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IDK where that's coming from. Sylvester Turner is an okay mayor and a pretty good speaker. Houston has some issues but a lot of those were inherited.
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Nov 1, 2018 23:15
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Still tempering expectations, but this is an interesting data point to consider: https://twitter.com/dansolomon/status/1058111901857730560 Basically, 538's model is presuming an approximately 39% voter turnout rate for its Texas numbers, but early voting has already put us at 32% turnout in the 30 biggest counties. Now, not all polls would necessarily make the same assumption 538 does but as they're the only one that publishes that number, it's our best signpost to go by.
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Nov 1, 2018 23:22
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Badger of Basra posted:Why is Turner bad? I don't really hate the guy but he's just such a stereotypical red state 'says nice things, happy to do good photo ops, but doesn't really DO much' dem.
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Nov 1, 2018 23:26
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Badger of Basra posted:Why is Turner bad? 
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Nov 1, 2018 23:32
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Amazing that they let a member of a known terrorist organization run for office
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Nov 1, 2018 23:38
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Badger of Basra posted:Why is Turner bad? Because he does not do anything of note and the things he does do of note are usually to hand out extremely lucrative contracts to his friends (like the IAH Airport concessions that went to a group that has no experience in the space, but a shitload of his donors). I'm trying to think of anything he's done of note other than the pension deal (which is admittedly very big, but any savings borne out of that are going to be lost with the firefighter prop anyway). Parker was always doing poo poo, and she caught flack for it, but the city is a better place because of historic districts, Buffalo Bayou Park, Bayou Greenways, certain development code changes (though obviously not far enough for parking requirements), HERO (even though it ultimately failed at the ballot), Rebuild Houston infrastructure program etc.
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Nov 1, 2018 23:38
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Typo posted:well polled large state down by 5 points or so? Well-polled large state lets you rule out sampling error, so Beto's chances come down to hoping the likely voter screens are off.
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Nov 1, 2018 23:41
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Sab0921 posted:Because he does not do anything of note and the things he does do of note are usually to hand out extremely lucrative contracts to his friends (like the IAH Airport concessions that went to a group that has no experience in the space, but a shitload of his donors). yea going right from Parker to Turner is really what makes it rough. Like, you can complain about her but Parker was always active, it feels like Turner just wants to coast on one (genuinely good) win in the pension thing and is just gonna hang out in office passing contracts to his buddies and just making sure nothing actively fucks the city up on his watch.
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Nov 1, 2018 23:48
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Turner would at least know what's going on in Texas government as he served in the House for quite a while. So, between him and Lupe the choice would be super clear, but yeah TX Dems should be spending their likely newfound cashflow on grooming someone good for the 2022 race.
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Nov 2, 2018 00:08
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If electing an anime for mayor is wrong then I don't want to be right. 
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Nov 2, 2018 00:14
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Houston is 601 square miles of concrete in a flood plain built on a drained swamp and still has major white flight even at that size. It does alright given what it is, but it will always have problems. Edit: Parker was genuinely kick rear end though, so he was always going to suck by comparison unless he busted his rear end. Dameius fucked around with this message at 00:31 on Nov 2, 2018 |
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Nov 2, 2018 00:29
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FBS posted:our five year nightmare is over https://twitter.com/bootleg_stuff/status/1058142167456194560
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Nov 2, 2018 00:51
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We have poisoned the earth.
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Nov 2, 2018 01:00
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+1 for Beto and all the other succdems on the ballot
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Nov 2, 2018 01:18
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BrutalistMcDonalds posted:I voted for the Bernie guy with a Geocities website who called Abbott a fascist. My runner-up was the guy who owns the the leather bar in Dallas. Hi5 geocities weirdo voter. I think that's who I semi-randomly picked too. Doom Rooster posted:I'll bring you back down. I can do one better. There won't be a #BlueWave.
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Nov 2, 2018 02:01
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Oh yeah +13 for Beto - it broke down like this +1 for each of me and my wife, and per rule, my anchor baby got to vote 11 times.
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Nov 2, 2018 02:10
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yellowyams posted:If electing an anime for mayor is wrong then I don't want to be right. Parker was even better at being a nerd. I wonder if I can find them - but while she was a sitting mayor, she used to get into twitter fights about Star Trek.
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Nov 2, 2018 02:13
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Block walking for Beto this weekend. And I hope that some of you are doing the same!
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Nov 2, 2018 02:16
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Zwabu posted:Block walking for Beto this weekend. And I hope that some of you are doing the same! Getting together with some folks to call brown people in Ft. Bend County - turnout for Sri Kulkarni and Beto. Putting some Hindi (and capability of understanding thick South Asian accents) to work!
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Nov 2, 2018 02:24
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https://twitter.com/TexasTribune/status/1058166040587370496quote:The two main arms of the proposal would give school districts financial incentives to improve student performance, as well as cap the revenue school districts can collect from property taxes in order to decrease tax rates.  Not sure how capping school budgets is going to "fix school finance" but what the gently caress ever Badger of Basra fucked around with this message at 02:33 on Nov 2, 2018 |
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Nov 2, 2018 02:31
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guess whos back https://twitter.com/JamesOKeefeIII/status/1058162930418675712 https://twitter.com/JamesOKeefeIII/status/1058170305418612736
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Nov 2, 2018 02:39
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This makes me like Beto more.
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Nov 2, 2018 02:40
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Sir Tonk posted:guess whos back The OG loving Pimp is back, y'all.
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Nov 2, 2018 02:44
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It's so sad that people like okeefe are able to continue to ruin lives. Campaign workers should not need to worry about some dishonest right winger that might be filming them so he can lie about it on foxnews. That gig is already stressful enough.
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Nov 2, 2018 02:45
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So the O'keefe person came in and said can we use a few campaign bucks to buy some food for starving people and they said yes and that's the scandal because the starving people were brown?
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Nov 2, 2018 02:50
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Sab0921 posted:So the O'keefe person came in and said can we use a few campaign bucks to buy some food for starving people and they said yes and that's the scandal because the starving people were brown? How dare they starve before we get to shoot them
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Nov 2, 2018 02:55
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