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A GLISTENING HODOR posted:[Extremely Nate Silver voice] "there's only a 5% chance Hillary can lose 2016!" nate silver sometimes acts like a dumb poo poo but out of all the pollsters/stat freaks 538 was the only one to really say that hillary may not sweep into office. the last poll on 538 before the election was 71.4% hillary 28.6% trump with trump getting 30% about a week before the elections.
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Jan 29, 2019 23:11
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Strong Sauce posted:nate silver sometimes acts like a dumb poo poo but out of all the pollsters/stat freaks 538 was the only one to really say that hillary may not sweep into office. the last poll on 538 before the election was 71.4% hillary 28.6% trump with trump getting 30% about a week before the elections. His broke rear end real time model gave a lot of people heart attacks late in the day during the midterms. I can't decide if that's a pro or a con.
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Jan 29, 2019 23:13
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Strong Sauce posted:nate silver sometimes acts like a dumb poo poo but out of all the pollsters/stat freaks 538 was the only one to really say that hillary may not sweep into office. the last poll on 538 before the election was 71.4% hillary 28.6% trump with trump getting 30% about a week before the elections. Nate silver apologists are worse than tankies
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Jan 29, 2019 23:14
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No more lol'ing at Trump for me, time to lol at the poors with my friend Jesus.quote:ATTENTION DEAR BENEFICIARY YOUR OVERDUE FUND WAS RELEASED TODAY BY OUR PRESIDENT MR DONALD TRUMP.....
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Jan 29, 2019 23:17
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Vapor Moon posted:No more lol'ing at Trump for me, time to lol at the poors with my friend Jesus. Lmao it's not a great country, try harder next time Melanie
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Jan 29, 2019 23:20
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Vapor Moon posted:No more lol'ing at Trump for me, time to lol at the poors with my friend Jesus. What's loving nuts is I think this might be from Melania.
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Jan 29, 2019 23:20
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pop fly to McGillicutty posted:What's loving nuts is I think this might be from Melania. There's more words in that email than Melanie has said publily in the last 2 years.
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Jan 29, 2019 23:24
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https://mobile.twitter.com/ChuckCallesto/status/1090370913500045314 I thought this was sarcasm or parody Nope
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Jan 29, 2019 23:25
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wtf is this poo poo
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Jan 29, 2019 23:27
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HugeGrossBurrito posted:Nate silver apologists are worse than tankies 
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Jan 29, 2019 23:28
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HugeGrossBurrito posted:Nate silver apologists are worse than tankies he's right though? the chance of a trump win was bouncing from 20 to nearly 50%
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Jan 29, 2019 23:31
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fishing with the fam posted:His broke rear end real time model gave a lot of people heart attacks late in the day during the midterms. I can't decide if that's a pro or a con. It overvalued the Florida election, which was one of the first to start reporting and ended up being the exception. Yeah, it wasn't perfect but it was easily explainable and I dont know how you model around that.
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Jan 29, 2019 23:34
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https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1090379084604018691
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Jan 29, 2019 23:41
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sebmojo posted:he's right though? the chance of a trump win was bouncing from 20 to nearly 50% la times had it right all along and he put out a half assed defense of them in an article that in general was intended as a hit piece against what turned out to be effective polling. he treated politics like sabermetrics and was successful because Obama was so absurdly reliable. I trust drat near any individual poll over his aggregate bullshit.
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Jan 29, 2019 23:42
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Lol this is normal
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Jan 29, 2019 23:45
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FMguru posted:https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1090215699480567813 It’s even more lol when you realize how hard they’re juking the unemployment stats to make it 3%. Working 3 part time jobs to barely make ends meet? That’s one less unemployed person! Unemployed for more than 2 months? You’re now a ‘discouraged worker’ and don’t count towards unemployment.
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Jan 29, 2019 23:45
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https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/948355557022420992 trump's big powerful button
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Jan 29, 2019 23:48
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HugeGrossBurrito posted:la times had it right all along and he put out a half assed defense of them in an article that in general was intended as a hit piece against what turned out to be effective polling. he treated politics like sabermetrics and was successful because Obama was so absurdly reliable. I trust drat near any individual poll over his aggregate bullshit. you know that probabilities lower than 100% can occur?
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Jan 29, 2019 23:49
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Anyone have enough of a law/civics background to explain why this is needed? Does a first strike like this fall under the War Powers Act or something?
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Jan 29, 2019 23:50
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boar guy posted:every single midwesterner Excuse me but I spent the first 26 years of my life in the midwest and hated that area since I was a child. My dad laughs now but, when I was 10, he remembers me asking him how old I had to be before I could legally move away. 10. The last time I visited my family there, seven years ago, it took maybe 5 hours before I was online talking with old friends to plan to GTFO of central Wisconsin the next day. The midwest is not beautiful unless vast expanses of barren flat land, corn fields, and crippling poverty from forced ignorance are all beautiful to you.
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Jan 29, 2019 23:51
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LMAO that article title Look at This Embarrassing loving Moron The president tweets, for the umpteenth time, that climate change is not real because it's cold outside. https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a26077427/trump-tweet-midwest-cold-global-warming/
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Jan 29, 2019 23:55
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LMAO, Trupm is going to wake up disoriented and drenched in piss and nuke Mexico unprovoked and then we're all going to be drafted into WW3 and have our brains blown out by Chinese or Russian prison camp guards.
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Jan 30, 2019 00:01
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dermophis donaldtrumpi
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Jan 30, 2019 00:02
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Didn't the LA times polling have Trumo up by 3 points or something, though?
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Jan 30, 2019 00:02
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sebmojo posted:you know that probabilities lower than 100% can occur? He completely discounted the possibility of trump winning on so many occasions personally, gave him token probability until it became abundantly clear that the extremely unpopular establishment candidate was in fact extremely unpopular to cover his own rear end. Especially when the polling he aggregates started making his model seem unpredictable as again evidenced by the short meltdown people had about democrats losing the house in 2018 on election night based on his live modeling. His algorithms, methodology whatever you want to call it in the months post primary leading up to the election directly contributed to the false sense of security that led to the Clinton campaign ignoring swing states for the pipe dream of blue Texas. Why wouldn’t they trust the greatest pollster alive who so accurately predicted some of the most easy to aggregate elections in the history of American politics.
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Jan 30, 2019 00:02
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A GLISTENING HODOR posted:LMAO, Trupm is going to wake up disoriented and drenched in piss and nuke Mexico unprovoked and then we're all going to be drafted into WW3 and have our brains blown out by Chinese or Russian prison camp guards. Trump is gonna open palm slam the nuke button and it's going to sizzle and burst into flames cause it's coated in piss and made in america.
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Jan 30, 2019 00:05
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Remember when David Frum was briefly not terrible? https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/01/how-howard-schultz-may-save-democratic-party/581443/ quote:Howard Schultz May Save the Democratic Party From Itself
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Jan 30, 2019 00:06
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HugeGrossBurrito posted:la times had it right all along and he put out a half assed defense of them in an article that in general was intended as a hit piece against what turned out to be effective polling. he treated politics like sabermetrics and was successful because Obama was so absurdly reliable. I trust drat near any individual poll over his aggregate bullshit. He's saying he agreed/disagreed with some things but generally he is only against polls that suck at their methodology... quote:Individual polls might give you a different impression, of course — and that’s OK. This is an unusual presidential election and a somewhat challenging time for the polling industry as a whole; we should expect and encourage a bit of disagreement. If you’re going to browbeat a pollster, do it to a pollster who is doing things cheaply — some of the robopolls qualify — and not one that’s trying to move the ball forward, like the LA Times poll. Besides, every now and then, one of the “outlier” polls proves to be right. But if you want to play the percentages and get the best gauge of where the election is headed, take the average, adjust for house effects if you like, and relax. The LA Times poll basically said Trump would win the popular vote by 3% points, Clinton actually won that by 2% points. Obviously the popular vote doesn't determine who wins the election so lol. Even that poll wasn't correct.
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Jan 30, 2019 00:06
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Dead Beef posted:https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/948355557022420992 I completely forgot about this, since it happened before the expansion of the universe
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Jan 30, 2019 00:10
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https://twitter.com/BFriedmanDC/status/1090381515819765763quote:Another defensive standout noted that coaches didn’t pressure players to accompany the team to Washington, D.C., but said that almost every black player he knew didn’t want to take the trip. However, he noted that he knew that some players only attended because they worried that refusing to attend the traditional White House visit might affect their scholarships or playing time. quote:When asked if they regretted their decision to stay in South Carolina once they saw the piles of cold McMeat their teammates got to enjoy, all three laughed.
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Jan 30, 2019 00:12
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Can you imagine? There's been so much garbage happening that the thread is a week old and we're almost already at page 100.
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Jan 30, 2019 00:12
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I ride bikes all day posted:Anyone have enough of a law/civics background to explain why this is needed? Does a first strike like this fall under the War Powers Act or something? to keep him from nuking nancy pelosi's house after she rubs his nose in his own poo poo the next time he shits in the house
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Jan 30, 2019 00:14
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Strong Sauce posted:This one? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-leave-the-la-times-poll-alone/ They were picking up on something that I sincerely wonder if most pollsters were over accounting for as some kind of bias especially 538. I fundamentally disagree with the overwhelmingly statistical approach establishment big data take regarding elections. It assumes that anyone involved including voters are rational actors.
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Jan 30, 2019 00:15
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HugeGrossBurrito posted:He completely discounted the possibility of trump winning on so many occasions personally, gave him token probability until it became abundantly clear that the extremely unpopular establishment candidate was in fact extremely unpopular to cover his own rear end. Especially when the polling he aggregates started making his model seem unpredictable as again evidenced by the short meltdown people had about democrats losing the house in 2018 on election night based on his live modeling. His algorithms, methodology whatever you want to call it in the months post primary leading up to the election directly contributed to the false sense of security that led to the Clinton campaign ignoring swing states for the pipe dream of blue Texas. Why wouldn’t they trust the greatest pollster alive who so accurately predicted some of the most easy to aggregate elections in the history of American politics. 
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Jan 30, 2019 00:17
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use your words
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Jan 30, 2019 00:20
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is it me or does that look like a colon? haha it even has a johnson
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Jan 30, 2019 00:20
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HugeGrossBurrito posted:Nate silver apologists are worse than tankies people still complaining about Nate silver are turbo cspam mods
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Jan 30, 2019 00:21
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schmug posted:is it me or does that look like a colon? it looks like some of the things I put in my colon
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Jan 30, 2019 00:21
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bird with big dick posted:people still complaining about Nate silver are turbo cspam mods yeah wtf does the NBA have to do with this
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Jan 30, 2019 00:22
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bird with big dick posted:it looks like some of the things I put in my colon candlesticks? Apples? hmm...
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Jan 30, 2019 00:23
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