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xiw posted:Okay cpig hasn't posted much but what's there is extremely useful. I'm Byzantium.
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Feb 3, 2020 02:23
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hambeet posted:I'm Byzantium. So you're saying the 'classic cpig gambit' part was a reaction to that rather than the breadcrumbing recieving the vig, okay. That's good because that was the weakest part of my hypothesis and I was worrying about that a bit before posting - i was thinking you'd posted that before deciding on the nightkill (but it was quite late in the day) but it didn't quittttte fit.
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Feb 3, 2020 02:43
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yeah he posted the day before about byzantium trying to kill austria, which I suspected was him trying to flush me out, and when he flipped it confirmed it.
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Feb 3, 2020 02:47
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Byzantium was CPig's upgrade target lol
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Feb 3, 2020 03:10
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Mr. Humalong posted:Byzantium was CPig's upgrade target lol oh I see you said that, idk how I missed that part on my first read
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Feb 3, 2020 03:11
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SalTheBard posted:I've received 3 Because that means you apparently had the only successful action last night. Either you’re lying or there’s a second lighting rod
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Feb 3, 2020 03:29
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More specifically if you didn’t get results at all then it could be ambiguous, but with an explicit successful result that leaves 3 possibilities 1) you did a mass jail and lied 2) there are 2 lightning rod roles in this game which makes the mod part of my brain sweaty 3) some third option that I can’t fathom but maybe lumpen will condescend to me about later
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Feb 3, 2020 03:34
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Retro Futurist posted:Because that means you apparently had the only successful action last night. Either you’re lying or there’s a second lighting rod the problem is I can't see why he'd lie and then vote me - obviously using the big jail would be super obvious to everyone so it wouldn't achieve what liar-Sal wants to achieve. Scum sal would just do better jailing me, withholding the nk, and then get me killed for pushing on steak. maybe someone has a bulk roleblock but jailor takes priority over roleblock maybe someone has a power to power-up other people and hit Sal Wouldn't a reusable lightning rod in a game with a jailor just prevent all nightkills forever? Seems unlikely. So it'd have to be another one-shot and I don't buy a second one-shot when we've seen one flipped. I kind of lean towards the priority thing making this a full-on red herring.
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Feb 3, 2020 03:39
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Why would Secret Alliance Sal pop the Superjail and then pretend not to have done it? I don't see the angle. I can't see any possible reason Town Sal would do it and then lie about it either though. And he would be busted as a liar if there's no Jail in future days. Secret Alliance Sal might be motivated to do the Superjail to free him up to do kills on future nights without having to account for a missing Jail, but then there wouldn't be any reason to deny doing it. Any other explanation seems really unlikely though, I just can't imagine a scenario where this would be a good play for Sal regardless of alignment. Doing it and lying seems like it would just be inconceivable and totally pointless as Town, but maybe clumsy or crafty for some reason I can't see, if Secret Alliance.
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Feb 3, 2020 04:00
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Leith Maclaine posted:I tracked either b- or hambeet. My action failed. Oh this is interesting - I think you're in a similar sitch to me. Who'd you track N1 and N2?
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Feb 3, 2020 04:10
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xiw posted:Oh this is interesting - I think you're in a similar sitch to me. I nominate 2, I do not know which one I actually track, I think that is my upgrade N1 - RF and AA, whichever one I tracked appears to have visited no one N2 - Sal and Cpig, whoever I tracked visited Hum N3 - B- and Hambeet, unable to track.
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Feb 3, 2020 04:17
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Okay I think everyone left in the game has claimed an active ability. The reason why this is interesting is that the nightkills and vig usages have to fit into these, so there are definitely lies happening. Sal: claims upgraded jailor, 95% confirmed. jailed lumpen N1, Hum N2, Xiw N3. Leith: claims tracker. D1 either RF or AA, no result. D2 Sal or CPIG, visited Hum, probably Sal. D3 either b- or hambeet, blocked. Hal: claims mason, confirmed by Lumpen D2 and Sal D3 Xiw: claims visiting CPig, Hum, Hal N1, xiw, hal, sal N2, tried to do Lumpen, xiw, hal N3 but blocked. Hum: claims active ability, jailed N2, blocked N3 Lumpen: claims active ability, jailed N1, blocked n3 RF: claims active ability, targeted Lumpen N1 and failed due to jailing before Sal claimed, so likely true. charms: claims active ability, failed N3, no further info b-minus: N3 claims targetting Lumpen and blocked. No claim before day 3. hambeet: claimed to target Hum N2 but only after knowing that Sal jailed them. No other claims. Any reason why people shouldn't claim the rest of their targets at this point? There are a rapidly limiting number of people who could have done the N1 kill and the N2 3 kills (assuming we trust Steak's bodyguard results at this point)
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Feb 3, 2020 04:27
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In particular I'd like to get charms, binus, and ham to tell us who they targetted N1 and N2. Don't forget at least 4 people have upgraded abilities we don't know about too - I'm guessing the bulk roleblock was one of those.
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Feb 3, 2020 04:34
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xiw posted:Okay I think everyone left in the game has claimed an active ability. The reason why this is interesting is that the nightkills and vig usages have to fit into these, so there are definitely lies happening. hum targeted me night 2, not the other way around.
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Feb 3, 2020 04:36
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Aight misread. So Hambeet is the only person not to claim an active ability. Sal: claims upgraded jailor, 95% confirmed. jailed lumpen N1, Hum N2, Xiw N3. Leith: claims tracker. D1 either RF or AA, no result. D2 Sal or CPIG, visited Hum, probably Sal. D3 either b- or hambeet, blocked. Hal: claims mason, confirmed by Lumpen D2 and Sal D3 Xiw: claims visiting CPig, Hum, Hal N1, xiw, hal, sal N2, tried to do Lumpen, xiw, hal N3 but blocked. Hum: claims active ability, targetted hambeet but jailed N2, blocked N3 Lumpen: claims active ability, jailed N1, blocked n3 RF: claims active ability, targeted Lumpen N1 and failed due to jailing before Sal claimed, so likely true. charms: claims active ability, failed N3, no further info b-minus: N3 claims targetting Lumpen and blocked. No claim before day 3. hambeet: none.
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Feb 3, 2020 04:41
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My target was Leith Maclaine, twice, both successes. Third was Humalong.
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Feb 3, 2020 04:41
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xiw posted:Hal: claims mason, confirmed by Lumpen D2 and Sal D3 I was visited by someone calling themself "the messenger" on N2. They said they had visited AA on N1 and Hal on N2. (This was on N2 so maybe they meant N0 and N1??) They gave me a code word to identify them by which they haven't presented yet as far as I have seen. Hal confirmed also having been visited by the messenger. Linguistically I guessed the messenger seemed like b-minus1, because they said "haha". However Binus now claimed to target me N3 which would seem to make him less likely the messenger. Or maybe he upgraded and has a reason to visit me again.
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Feb 3, 2020 04:46
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I've been thinking about some stuff steak said yesterday in light of his flip, and now your post about me and cpig kind of made me realise something and my claim is part of that. my un-upgraded power is a redirector of sorts. it's called byzantine bureaucracy. i mark another player and anyone targeting me will be redirected to whomever i marked without knowing they were redirected. it is limited in that it does not redirect night kills. maybe my upgraded power redirects night kills, or maybe it becomes a full on bus driver. idk, my target hasn't died. n1 I targeted cpig. what if cpig did give me the vig that night, as suggested by xiw, but he ended up targeting himself because I marked him? so he ends up with his own 1-shot vig to use, and used it night 2 instead of giving another out. that could explain why when steak asked, no one claimed to have used his n1 vig or be in possession of his n2 vig. because cpig was dead and couldn't tell us he used it, and no one had his night 2 vig because he didn't give one out.
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Feb 3, 2020 04:54
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n2 I targeted steak.
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Feb 3, 2020 04:55
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xiw posted:Aight misread. So Hambeet is the only person not to claim an active ability. and I claimed my action was unsuccessful earlier today, in response to you asking, which kind of outs me having an active ability before you made this list.
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Feb 3, 2020 05:01
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Leith Maclaine posted:I nominate 2, I do not know which one I actually track, I think that is my upgrade You tracked me on Night 2, which I do find your phrasing of that weird because I was pretty open about the fact that I jailed Hum.
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Feb 3, 2020 05:35
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My targets were N1 lumpen (failed) N2 sal N3 lumpen (failed) My role isn’t particularly useful right now so i don’t have anything good to add here
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Feb 3, 2020 05:44
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n1 xiw success n2 hambeet failed n3 lumpen failed
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Feb 3, 2020 06:36
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SalTheBard posted:You tracked me on Night 2, which I do find your phrasing of that weird because I was pretty open about the fact that I jailed Hum. I track either You or CPIG, I don't know which.
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Feb 3, 2020 14:42
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My phrasing is odd because I am uncertain who I tracked.
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Feb 3, 2020 14:43
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Leith Maclaine posted:My phrasing is odd because I am uncertain who I tracked. You tracked me. I jailed Hum and he confirmed it in thread.
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Feb 3, 2020 14:51
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SalTheBard posted:You tracked me. I jailed Hum and he confirmed it in thread. That seems like it would be a very risky gambit though, counting on nobody else successfully visiting Humlong N2. I would have to look back and see the timing of the claims to see if they claimed about it after everyone else, when it would be safe. It's most likely that Leith's claim is just additional evidence that Sal indeed jailed Humalong, but it pings me that Sal is really insistent for this conclusion to be accepted without considering the alternative. And also Sal's claimed target of Humalong made no sense from his D1 posting that suggested he was most suspicious of xiw, and that he told Hal in Masonchat that he picked Humalong with "rng". He then said he lied about that but why would that be something to lie about?
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Feb 3, 2020 15:07
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Hi everyone. Need to get caught up. Will do thst today
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Feb 3, 2020 17:43
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Lumpen posted:If CPig was tracked visited Humalong N2, it would mean that Humalong was not jailed, (otherwise CPig could not be tracked there) and Humalong received a Vig, but then lied and said he failed an attempt to visit hambeet. This would mean that Sal and Humalong are both Secret Alliance, Sal could have done a kill N2 and used Humalong's claim of being jailed as an alibi, and Humalong could use a claim of being jailed as an alibi for having the vig to use on N3. I basically agree with all of this and I think Sal's play has not been great at all but I am struggling to see how any of the recet stuff makes sense as scum
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Feb 3, 2020 19:30
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Ooh, a backup! If someone had a vackuo/gravedigger type role they could have gotten the lightning rod after the first one died.
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Feb 3, 2020 19:41
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So in that case Sal is likely telling the truth about at least that much
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Feb 3, 2020 19:52
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Excellent point Lumpen. Didn't think that Cpig could also have visited Hum
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Feb 3, 2020 20:12
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SalTheBard posted:Excellent point Lumpen. Didn't take into account that Cpig could have also visited Hum
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Feb 3, 2020 20:16
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hambeet posted:I've been thinking about some stuff steak said yesterday in light of his flip, and now your post about me and cpig kind of made me realise something and my claim is part of that. Nice try. If Cpig had received his own vig n1 no way he wouldn't have indicated it in thread in some form d2. Everyone else i urge you to re-read all of cpig knowing he's giving out vigs - it's not long and it's as close to proof as I've ever seen. Imagine being cpig here you've given hambeet a gun and received it back. That's super weird, you got redirected. It'd be useful for everyone to know that! So instead he posts about Byzantium.
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Feb 3, 2020 20:26
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xiw posted:Nice try. Nice catch. I think we got a live one. ##vote beet
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Feb 3, 2020 20:28
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Yeah that's pretty good xiw
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Feb 3, 2020 20:34
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Making sure this is the right thread this time. Idea, and this idea may suck but I do not have much else to contribute with my lack of information. There were probably 4 scum originally, minus penny, means 3 left. Can we make a list of 3-4 players that we are pretty sure are town to concentrate on the ones that are left?
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Feb 3, 2020 20:45
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xiw posted:Nice try. uhh that's not a try, that's was just a theory for why we've heard nothing of the vig's. I only thought it a possibility he tried to give it to me after your post suggesting that he did.
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Feb 3, 2020 20:52
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Leith Maclaine posted:Idea, and this idea may suck but I do not have much else to contribute with my lack of information. Please have a read of Cpig's posts now that we know that he's town and can give out vigs and see what you think.
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Feb 3, 2020 21:04
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xiw posted:Imagine being cpig here you've given hambeet a gun and received it back. That's super weird, you got redirected. It'd be useful for everyone to know that! So instead he posts about Byzantium. That would make sense, though. He had a nightkill, he just needed someone to use it on. Flushing out Byzantium by lying about his role seems like a bad move whether he had the nightkill or not, but that's what he was doing, so I don't think it's right to assume optimal gameplay from CapitalistPig.
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Feb 3, 2020 21:06
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