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Sophy Wackles
Dec 17, 2000

> access main security grid
access: PERMISSION DENIED.





Mozi posted:

you are doing the opposite of getting real information out. you are spreading complete bullshit as if it were or might be fact.

i specifically said i don't trust the CCP and that you need to accept that perfect information is impossible to obtain in any case. accept uncertainty and know what you can't know for sure.

the recent moves by the CCP indicate they accept that economic damage will happen as a result of this. i don't know how it will shake out - possible global recession? - but I would really love to see your source of China saying 'everything is totally fine'

You are doing a really great job defending the CCP though.

Recent reports have shown that the Chinese government knew about this back in November and suppressed information about it "aka said everything is fine!" to protect political meetings in January and to protect their economy during lunar new year. Heck there are hundreds of articles about it. Take your pick.

https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2020-02-03/coronavirus-china-media-censorship-propaganda

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The Walrus
Jul 9, 2002

by Fluffdaddy

unpacked robinhood posted:

It's not fear mongering it's lol china mongering

china mongering is what got this all started jeez. you got your koala monger, your snake monger, we should be talking more about the evils of all around mongering and not be picky. 'if you can't monge it yourself don't eat it' is a good rule of thumb, and you can't monge china.

QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

Pawn 17 posted:

So we should just unquestioningly trust the official numbers?

It's not really a matter of trusting the official numbers vs not. It's a matter of recognizing that there's no feasible way to obtain reliable numbers. Reports from China are that most people aren't even being accepted into hospital care and that testing is unreliable at best. There are plenty of projections of big numbers based on these facts and maybe Tencent is posting one of those, but there's no reason to believe that A) the Chinese government has a secret, true tally of confirmed cases or that B) Tencent is receiving it (this would be equivalent to the US Government deliberately sending secrets to Facebook)

Hopper
Dec 28, 2004

BOOING! BOOING!
Grimey Drawer

Sten Freak posted:

My parents are taking the family on a cruise in June and honestly it's the first thing I thought of when this flu started hitting the news.

I figure by June it'll be burned out, contained or so bad we won't be going, which would suck considering the moolah already spent.

If it is that bad, they will likely have to cancel the cruise as governments prohibit international travel and you will get your money back. Which is good because if it comes that far, you will need it to buy basic things once prices go through the roof.

Tomathan
Nov 6, 2006
They won't let us wear our baggy pants

Pawn 17 posted:

You are doing a really great job defending the CCP though.

Recent reports have shown that the Chinese government knew about this back in November and suppressed information about it "aka said everything is fine!" to protect political meetings in January and to protect their economy during lunar new year. Heck there are hundreds of articles about it. Take your pick.

https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2020-02-03/coronavirus-china-media-censorship-propaganda

You gotta take a step back guy, cause you are seeing things they aren't saying. Their whole point isn't that they are telling the truth, but that the actual numbers are most likely unknowable.

QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

Pawn 17 posted:

You are doing a really great job defending the CCP though.

Recent reports have shown that the Chinese government knew about this back in November and suppressed information about it "aka said everything is fine!" to protect political meetings in January and to protect their economy during lunar new year. Heck there are hundreds of articles about it. Take your pick.

https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2020-02-03/coronavirus-china-media-censorship-propaganda

Seriously you are doing some Loose Change poo poo. Mozi has acknowledged all of this and that the Chinese government's numbers are not trustworthy or reliable. You're confusing criticism of a goofy-rear end conspiracy with an ardent defense of the Chinese government when all Mozi is really saying is "they don't even have the ability to gather those numbers"

poverty goat
Feb 15, 2004



  • the ccp benefits from minimizing the crisis
  • only positive results to test kits are counted as sick people in the official numbers
  • the ccp controls the supply of test kits, and isn't providing enough to test everyone

but yeah I'm sure they're making a good faith effort to generate and report accurate numbers to the world and not obviously systematically downplaying it

poverty goat fucked around with this message at 21:18 on Feb 5, 2020

Sophy Wackles
Dec 17, 2000

> access main security grid
access: PERMISSION DENIED.





Tomathan posted:

You gotta take a step back guy, cause you are seeing things they aren't saying. Their whole point isn't that they are telling the truth, but that the actual numbers are most likely unknowable.

lol, yes truly the real numbers completely are unknowable and we definitely don’t have internal estimates and external official estimates like for everything else.

Now here is our good faith best estimate that no one is to question.

Tormented
Jan 22, 2004

"And the goat shall bear upon itself all their iniquities unto a solitary place..."

stephenthinkpad posted:

Can you tell me what keyword to search for this kind of boat services? I remember a video of a youtuber crossing the Atlantic on one of those freight ships.

https://en.wikivoyage.org/wiki/Freighter_travel

QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

poverty goat posted:

  • the ccp benefits from minimizing the crisis
  • only positive results to test kits are counted as sick people in the official numbers
  • the ccp controls the supply of test kits, and isn't providing enough to test everyone

but yeah I'm sure they're making a good faith effort to generate and report accurate numbers to the world and not obviously systematically downplaying it

friend do you understand how bullets 2 and 3 directly contradict the notion that they have "official" true tallies? how are they going to get a secret count of all of the infected if they're deliberately not testing everyone?

do you even know what you're arguing anymore?

just another
Oct 16, 2009

these dead towns that make the maps wrong now
I imagine the hospitals are at least logging the number of people showing up so they might be able to make a rough inference of the number of infected based on the deviation from the hospital visits in previous seasons.

Spectracide
May 27, 2004
IT'S ARGH, BABY!
lets all go to https://news.qq.com//zt2020/page/feiyan.htm and make our own fake news using basic web tools
be sure to take a picture instead of a screenshot to make it more believable
i'll start

stephenthinkpad
Jan 2, 2020

Pawn 17 posted:

lol, yes truly the real numbers completely are unknowable and we definitely don’t have internal estimates and external official estimates like for everything else.

Now here is our good faith best estimate that no one is to question.

If you dont want to trust the Chinese number, then don't. Nobody put a gun on your head. There are enough oversea numbers to do data mining yourself, instead of making pointless argument about CCP that has nothing to do with the coronavirus.

Edit, and there are at least 3 other China threads on SA if you just want to talk about China.

stephenthinkpad fucked around with this message at 21:30 on Feb 5, 2020

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost
I think the most accurate numbers currently would be from models, as we know more about how this spreads they will become more and more accurate - currently maybe something on the order of 100k people infected in China on the higher end.

I certainly don't mean to downplay the seriousness of the situation at all.

And this was a good article. The initial response to the outbreak was bungled to the extent that it is undeniable and people are noticing.

Coronavirus Crisis Shows China’s Governance Failure

quote:

Wuhan’s mayor blamed higher-ups. A senior disease control official blamed layers of bureaucracy. A top government expert blamed the public: The people, he said, simply didn’t understand what he told them.

As China grapples with a mysterious coronavirus outbreak that has killed at least 490 people and sickened thousands, the country’s 1.4 billion people are asking what went wrong. Senior officials are engaging in an unusually blunt display of finger pointing.

So many officials have denied responsibility that some online users joke that they are watching a passing-the-buck competition. (It’s “tossing the wok” in Chinese.)

The Chinese people are getting a rare glimpse of how China’s giant, opaque bureaucratic system works — or, rather, how it fails to work. Too many of its officials have become political apparatchiks, fearful of making decisions that anger their superiors and too removed and haughty when dealing with the public to admit mistakes and learn from them.

“The most important issue this outbreak exposed is the local government’s lack of action and fear of action,” said Xu Kaizhen, a best-selling author who is famous for his novels that explore the intricate workings of China’s bureaucratic politics.

...

Growing numbers of people are questioning the government’s decisions as China enters a period of virtual shutdown. As the virus spread, officials in Wuhan and around the country withheld critical information, played down the threat and rebuked doctors who tried to raise the alarm. A reconstruction of the diseases’s spread by The New York Times showed that by not issuing earlier warnings, the Chinese government potentially lost the window to keep the disease from becoming an epidemic.

...

Few people dare to question Mr. Xi openly, for fear of provoking censors or the police. But after Mr. Xi disappeared from public in recent days, some social media users began asking euphemistically, “Where is that person?” They are also posting online and sharing pictures of former leaders at the site of past crises.

Splicer
Oct 16, 2006

from hell's heart I cast at thee
🧙🐀🧹🌙🪄🐸

Tomathan posted:

You gotta take a step back guy, cause you are seeing things they aren't saying. Their whole point isn't that they are telling the truth, but that the actual numbers are most likely unknowable.
It's always fun to see some dumbfuck insist on treating things people say in isolation and somehow failing to get that what something is in reply to impacts the context and meaning. Saying that nobody knows the real numbers man in isolation is significantly different to saying nobody knows the real numbers man in response to a post about China potentially under reporting their best guesstimates by a factor of 10.

doctorfrog
Mar 14, 2007

Great.

Spectracide posted:

lets all go to https://news.qq.com//zt2020/page/feiyan.htm and make our own fake news using basic web tools
be sure to take a picture instead of a screenshot to make it more believable
i'll start


screen moire as a hologram of authenticity

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost
China is reporting confirmed cases and people who were confirmed to have died as a direct result of the virus. They are not 'under reporting' any 'estimates', though by nature of reality they are under-reporting actual infected/dead.

They could publish their best guesstimates for actual infected/dead, but you don't need to go to them for that, there are plenty of medical experts figuring that out on their own based on more or less the same data.

I'm done w/ this anyways, I hate arguing. Things will go as they go and we'll see how it ends up.

doctorfrog
Mar 14, 2007

Great.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/05/world/asia/coronavirus-china.html#link-3736fde0 posted:

In the early days of the crisis, online vitriol was directed largely at the local authorities, said King-wa Fu, an associate professor at the Journalism and Media Studies Center at the University of Hong Kong.

But now, he said, more of the anger is being aimed at higher-level leadership — and there seems to be more of it over all. So the Chinese government has shifted its strategy for information control.

State-run news media and more commercially minded outlets have lately been told to focus on positive stories about virus relief efforts, according to three people at Chinese news organizations who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal directives.

And internet platforms have removed several articles that suggest shortcomings in the Chinese government’s response or are otherwise negative about the outbreak. Local officials have also cracked down on what they call online “rumors” about the virus.
To be clear, this is not a directive to underreport numbers, just an overall secret policy to be more cheery/less blamey about the whole thing.

monkeytennis
Apr 26, 2007


Toilet Rascal

Ruggan posted:

Rip. Please keep posting updates

I don’t think we are quite dead yet. I have a blocked up nose and head, a cough and sneezes and feel like I’ve been in a car accident. Also I feel a bit drunk and when I move my head my eyes don’t quite seem to keep up iykwim.

I’ve had some single distillery Martell and I’m lying in bed watching Coronation Street. Work was a struggle today but I haven’t been off sick for over 20 years and I’m a stubborn Yorkshireman so it ain’t beating me.

If I go into respiratory failure during the night I’ll let you know!

Shaocaholica
Oct 29, 2002

Fig. 5E
executions will be performed after this is over using infected bats on virus island.

Bardeh
Dec 2, 2004

Fun Shoe

monkeytennis posted:

I don’t think we are quite dead yet. I have a blocked up nose and head, a cough and sneezes and feel like I’ve been in a car accident. Also I feel a bit drunk and when I move my head my eyes don’t quite seem to keep up iykwim.

I’ve had some single distillery Martell and I’m lying in bed watching Coronation Street. Work was a struggle today but I haven’t been off sick for over 20 years and I’m a stubborn Yorkshireman so it ain’t beating me.

If I go into respiratory failure during the night I’ll let you know!

Don't go to work if you're sick ffs, my supervisor doing that is why me and my family are now sick

hallelujah
Jan 26, 2020

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN
i have become a fomite

just another
Oct 16, 2009

these dead towns that make the maps wrong now

Shaocaholica posted:

executions will be performed after this is over using infected bats on virus island.

Jokes on us, virus island is actually a peninsula.

Trainee PornStar
Jul 20, 2006

I'm just an inbetweener

monkeytennis posted:

I don’t think we are quite dead yet. I have a blocked up nose and head, a cough and sneezes and feel like I’ve been in a car accident. Also I feel a bit drunk and when I move my head my eyes don’t quite seem to keep up iykwim.

I’ve had some single distillery Martell and I’m lying in bed watching Coronation Street. Work was a struggle today but I haven’t been off sick for over 20 years and I’m a stubborn Yorkshireman so it ain’t beating me.

If I go into respiratory failure during the night I’ll let you know!

UK patient zero spotted!! :P lol
(i know)

unpacked robinhood
Feb 18, 2013

by Fluffdaddy

Bardeh posted:

Don't go to work if you're sick ffs, my supervisor doing that is why me and my family are now sick

I'm a tough guy urff urfff *spreads bat plague everywhere*

unpacked robinhood
Feb 18, 2013

by Fluffdaddy
I'm a tubby workshire

Duck and Cover
Apr 6, 2007

stephenthinkpad posted:

If you dont want to trust the Chinese number, then don't. Nobody put a gun on your head. There are enough oversea numbers to do data mining yourself, instead of making pointless argument about CCP that has nothing to do with the coronavirus.

Edit, and there are at least 3 other China threads on SA if you just want to talk about China.

Talking about China and how the CCP is handling things is definitely relevant. Of course it is. Like how on earth could you think otherwise?

OMFG FURRY
Jul 10, 2006

[snarky comment]

i am harry posted:

https://mobile.twitter.com/kakape/status/1224754875852054530

https://mobile.twitter.com/kakape/status/1224755583200497671

Virus grows in nasopharynx and digestive tract independently of the lungs, and from those areas in people showing only mild flu symptoms, the virus can be cultured.

Also a newborn in Wuhan that tested negative in the womb has been infected by its infected mother, but doctors are unsure of how (the possibilities are before or during birth, or right after)

its infectious during the incubation period that is loving wild

Burns
May 10, 2008

https://toronto.citynews.ca/2020/02/03/coronavirus-plane-prank/

Golli
Jan 5, 2013




I hope they send him the bill for all the extra expense incurred by the airline, each passenger and emergency response.

Need to make the publicity cost him

poty
Jun 21, 2008

虹はどこで終わるのですか? あなたの魂の中で、または地平線で?
I don’t think the Chinese data is super accurate but it’s the most accurate data that exists.

We have accurate data about the rest of the world and it seems well contained so far, thankfully. Whether the number of cases in China is 20k or 80k the summary is the same: it’s a huge loving problem there

ma i married a tuna
Apr 24, 2005

Numbers add up to nothing
Pillbug
What a coincidence that the Taiwan "LEAKED SCANDAL this is the real number of the dead" is almost exactly the currently confirmed number of infected. Surely, a vast conspiracy is way more likely than someone accidentically typing the number from column A into column B.

Bape Culture
Sep 13, 2006

Let’s just email Chinese crematorium staff and ask them to join the forums and we can get to the bottom of this once and for all

FistEnergy
Nov 3, 2000

DAY CREW: WORKING HARD

Fun Shoe
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1225180524760780800?s=19

Numbers still increasing. It's definitely going to be pandemic.

Carth Dookie
Jan 28, 2013

I bought some stuff off eBay that's coming from China (eventually). I wonder how much of the package by percentage will be comprised of deadly flu virus.

Chrs
Sep 21, 2015

monkeytennis posted:

Work was a struggle today but I haven’t been off sick for over 20 years and I’m a stubborn Yorkshireman so it ain’t beating me.

Take a day off you gently caress face nobody wants your germs.

Chrs
Sep 21, 2015

Carth Dookie posted:

I bought some stuff off eBay that's coming from China (eventually). I wonder how much of the package by percentage will be comprised of deadly flu virus.

If there was any virus on it it will absolutely be dead by the time it gets to you

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
https://mobile.twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1225182925894967297

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

FistEnergy posted:

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1225180524760780800?s=19

Numbers still increasing. It's definitely going to be pandemic.

Deaths increased. That's actually slightly less the number of new cases there yesterday.

Has growth plateaued or are they just struggling to test more than 3,000 in Hubei?

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Fornax Disaster
Apr 11, 2005

If you need me I'll be in Holodeck Four.

Carth Dookie posted:

I bought some stuff off eBay that's coming from China (eventually). I wonder how much of the package by percentage will be comprised of deadly flu virus.

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