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V. Illych L. posted:how the gently caress is anyone getting a majority out of that The Greens phones are definately gonna be on fire
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Feb 11, 2020 00:05
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Last I saw
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Feb 11, 2020 00:07
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Arquinsiel posted:Last I saw Running off the RTE declarations - only have Cavan Monaghan outstanding where the third FF candidate got knocked out and there's two FF and one FG in the running for final two with the FG candidate trailing by 120 votes Wicklow was the other one but RTE called final count twenty minutes ago with the traitorous egg getting in for FF and the Greens taking the last seat kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 00:13 on Feb 11, 2020 |
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Feb 11, 2020 00:10
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That was quite the weekend. I was in one of the bigger count centers yesterday, there were a lot more Shinners than in previous elections. The party activist demographic across all parties is really changing too, there are a lot less old men than there were a decade ago. Its great to see. FF/SF/Greens is probably the only likely workable majority government now. If certain FF members can convince the rest of the party to do it. The only other functional outcome would be FG agreeing to back FF supply & confidence, then FF + Green + SocDems + a few INDs minority government. LAB are still suffering badly from their last stint in government, so I think will stay out of any arrangement. The S&C would keep SF out, and in theory by the time another election is called in say 3 years the housing crisis should have abated - and the with that the wind gone from SF's sails. FG will be wary of it given the relative hammering FF got for their supply & confidence deal today though, but the combination of avoiding another immediate election (that would likely see strong SF gains) and keeping SF out will tempt them. Paddypower have the FF/SF/Green government as their most likely outcome, but we'll see.
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Feb 11, 2020 00:43
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Blut posted:Paddypower have the FF/SF/Green government as their most likely outcome, but we'll see. Well put. Working with this, I think FF will want to go for a FF/SF/G coalition. Its the safest for them, is not tainted by the last 10 years and they can use SF/G polices to help mend the FF taint. It's also the worst for SF, who could loose their base support if they "do a deal with the devil" and join with FF for a chance to govern. The Greens will be fine either way. I don't see anyone wanting to form a coalition with FG, their loses this election is a stark reflection on the publics opinion on their polices and are the new "tainted goods". People muse at a FF/FG coalition, but it would just end up making SF stronger and cost both parties in the long run. Interesting times ahead lads. Edit: I personally reckon that SF might actually avoid a coalition and try for a second election. Foul Ole Ron fucked around with this message at 01:11 on Feb 11, 2020 |
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Feb 11, 2020 01:03
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i really cannot see SF entering government unless they're given the keys to the kingdom. it's easily spun as a sell-out and they need to make sure that it's worth it so FF bleeds instead of them. SF can just stay out of it and try to topple any ramshackle government that comes out of this without their support at the earliest convenient scandal
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Feb 11, 2020 01:11
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They need to tread a careful line though, Winning a massive swing and saying "no, we want more" is gonna annoy people especially if they're not winning off first preferences. Possibly especially given the party's tendency for... not participating in assemblies they're elected to lol which I think kustomkarcommando mentioned being a thing people say about them to me before. Giving the impression of being willing but drawing strict lines might be necessary.
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Feb 11, 2020 01:16
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V. Illych L. posted:i really cannot see SF entering government unless they're given the keys to the kingdom. it's easily spun as a sell-out and they need to make sure that it's worth it so FF bleeds instead of them. SF can just stay out of it and try to topple any ramshackle government that comes out of this without their support at the earliest convenient scandal I agree, it makes no sense for SF to work with FF or FG. Not sure if SF will give up a chance to be a proper opposition.
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Feb 11, 2020 01:23
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OwlFancier posted:They need to tread a careful line though, Winning a massive swing and saying "no, we want more" is gonna annoy people especially if they're not winning off first preferences. Possibly especially given the party's tendency for... not participating in assemblies they're elected to lol which I think kustomkarcommando mentioned being a thing people say about them to me before. yeah if they end up staying out it's going to be on some demand that is very popular among at least 30% of irish people and also a red line for FF. ideally something they campaigned on, so they've got that as well. mcdonald has made noises to the effect of wanting to negotiate, at least
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Feb 11, 2020 01:25
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Foul Ole Ron posted:Working with this, I think FF will want to go for a FF/SF/G coalition. Its the safest for them, is not tainted by the last 10 years and they can use SF/G polices to help mend the FF taint. It's also the worst for SF, who could loose their base support if they "do a deal with the devil" and join with FF for a chance to govern. The Greens will be fine either way. FF's safest option by far is S&C minority government with them running the show. If they can preside over another economic boom for a few years, as the dominant party in government, they should in theory get a much easier ride going into the next election. But it just depends on if they can convince FG, and to a lesser extent the SocDems/INDs, to agree to it. If FF go into a coalition government with SF they risk losing a big chunk of their older, 'NEVER SF', voters to FG - particularly as its going against Martin's repeated promises to not do so. SF would likely get a lot of the credit for any improvements in housing, healthcare etc as both the equal party in government, and as the party with more radical 'change' voter impression of them. FG would also get to sit in opposition and position themselves as the only real centre-right party in the country, against a Dail made up entirely of "leftists". FF would struggle quite badly with this medium/long term. V. Illych L. posted:i really cannot see SF entering government unless they're given the keys to the kingdom. it's easily spun as a sell-out and they need to make sure that it's worth it so FF bleeds instead of them. SF can just stay out of it and try to topple any ramshackle government that comes out of this without their support at the earliest convenient scandal Mary Lou had said they're willing to go into government as a minor coalition partner, pre election day. With their unexpectedly high levels of support that might change. The risk for SF is if they stay out, and an alternative government is formed, this moment may pass. If the Irish economy keeps booming, and the housing crisis is fixed within 18-24 months as is expected, a lot of the new younger, more middle class, SF voters will likely drift back to their more traditional homes in LAB or FG (or else the Greens or SocDems). Polls show most of the new SF voters aren't there for Republican reasons, they're there because of housing. If SF on the other hand go into government and demand Housing, Planning & local Gov as one of their ministries they can claim responsibility for fixing it, and maybe secure the loyalties of those voters for a generation. As well as present themselves as a far more legitimized political party to many voters around the country still worried about their terrorist past, by showing they can be a responsible part of government without the sky falling down. Blut fucked around with this message at 01:45 on Feb 11, 2020 |
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Feb 11, 2020 01:43
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in every coalition, there are winners and losers. you do not get a coalition government without some members suffering badly. in a coalition between two party as clearly at odds as SF and FF (and, to make it even spicier, with another bunch of people in the mix as well!) there's going to be a knife-fight from day one. ireland's political dynamic is very odd to me since the main political divide seems to no longer be particularly relevant, but an outsider party going into government with a more centrist established party is almost invariably the one to bleed. the only exception from this rule that comes to mind is the danish people's party, which actually stayed out of government on a confidence and supply agreement propping up the Liberal party. conversely, outsiders who stay in opposition almost never lose support. if they enter coalition, SF is going to try its very best to destroy FF and take its place as one of the main parties of the republic while FF is going to fight desperately to put them back in their box. it's going to be a shite working environment all around. they might settle on this, but nobody is going to enter that relationship with any illusions - SF is poised to take over the place of one of the traditional big boys, and they are going to take their shot at some point. if FF can make FG be their junior partner while SF head up the opposition, FG can die instead of FF.
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Feb 11, 2020 01:56
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V. Illych L. posted:in every coalition, there are winners and losers. you do not get a coalition government without some members suffering badly. in a coalition between two party as clearly at odds as SF and FF (and, to make it even spicier, with another bunch of people in the mix as well!) there's going to be a knife-fight from day one. ireland's political dynamic is very odd to me since the main political divide seems to no longer be particularly relevant, but an outsider party going into government with a more centrist established party is almost invariably the one to bleed. the only exception from this rule that comes to mind is the danish people's party, which actually stayed out of government on a confidence and supply agreement propping up the Liberal party. conversely, outsiders who stay in opposition almost never lose support. If this election showed anything, its that there is a lot of hatred for both FG and FF on their own. Put that hatred together in a coalition and have SF act as an opposition to it? It would destroy FF and FG and give a SF their place as the number 2 party.
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Feb 11, 2020 02:08
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Why is everyone saying that if FF/FG get into power than the Housing Crisis will be over in 18-24 months? They have had years to fix it and it has just gotten worse. Oh but all of a sudden now they will actually try to fix it.
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Feb 11, 2020 10:09
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By "everyone" do you jean the media types who have been losing their poo poo over a Sinn Féin win all election or the parties themselves?
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Feb 11, 2020 10:13
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The Question IRL posted:Why is everyone saying that if FF/FG get into power than the Housing Crisis will be over in 18-24 months? Who is this "everyone"? The Independent?
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Feb 11, 2020 10:18
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V. Illych L. posted:if they enter coalition, SF is going to try its very best to destroy FF and take its place as one of the main parties of the republic while FF is going to fight desperately to put them back in their box. it's going to be a shite working environment all around. they might settle on this, but nobody is going to enter that relationship with any illusions - SF is poised to take over the place of one of the traditional big boys, and they are going to take their shot at some point. if FF can make FG be their junior partner while SF head up the opposition, FG can die instead of FF. I think FG are extremely aware of this tbh - the noises coming from them at the moment are very "the ball is in FF and SFs court". I fully expect a heave to oust Leo to be launched shortly after, or maybe during, government formation. FG have bad historical experience propping up FF with the Tallaght Startegy of the late 80s and I think they are probably realising a spell on the opposition benches may be to their benefit - they might abstain to let Martin become Taoiseach without a formal C&S agreement "for the good of the country" and let them assume power as a minority held over a barrel every budget but even then FF would need to woo the greens and a big clutch of independents to be viable. Letting an uncivil war break out in FFs ranks over making a deal with SF and then positioning themselves as the natural counter to SF to squeeze FFs position with the voters may yield results for them if a new election is called - haven't run the full numbers yet but eyeballing the main seats increased SF candidates will largely just skim seats off the left wing groupings in most cases so barring a further swing to SF the overall balance may not change much but could let them win back Green switchers concerned about Taoiseach Mary Lou.
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Feb 11, 2020 10:34
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Also might be time to put Howlin on death watch - I'm sure Alan Kelly is sharpening his knives for a putsch
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Feb 11, 2020 10:38
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20 independents again. I’ll be expecting a big pork barrel to be rolling its way towards Munster soon. Maybe Kerry could get a flatcap museum.
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Feb 11, 2020 11:44
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Mandatory drunk driving, but only if you've had a big roast dinner to soak it up
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Feb 11, 2020 12:02
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Septimius posted:20 independents again. I’ll be expecting a big pork barrel to be rolling its way towards Munster soon. Maybe Kerry could get a flatcap museum. Talk of technical groups bubbling away https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1227165421570330635?s=19 Get ready for the building Roads and cutting hedges caucus
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Feb 11, 2020 12:17
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Failed Imagineer posted:Who is this "everyone"? The Independent? People in this thread have been saying it. Blut posted:
And even outside of this thread, I remember a vox pop run before the election where some woman was saying that she thought that if FG had been given some more time then they would have fixed a lot of the problems that people have. There are people who seem to think that the housing market will sort itself out in time, as opposed to being a problem that has to be tackled. kustomkarkommando posted:Talk of technical groups bubbling away You joke but the roads and hedges around where I live could do with some maintance.
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Feb 11, 2020 12:41
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The Question IRL posted:People in this thread have been saying it.
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Feb 11, 2020 12:46
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The Question IRL posted:People in this thread have been saying it. Fair enough I glazed over that post, but uhhh I don't think it's based in any kind of reasonable analysis of how hosed the property market is tbh
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Feb 11, 2020 12:53
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I'd believe when I saw it
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Feb 11, 2020 14:17
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Re: housing market, I'm not defending FG and their idiotic neo-liberal laissez faire approach in any way. They've essentially created this housing market disaster by sitting on their hands up until 2018, and even since then by not emphasizing social housing in any way, shape or form. The HAP is absolutely disastrous. But, that being said, since the housing market started becoming a huge issue for even the upper/middle classes, and, as importantly in FG's eyes, started becoming a major issue for attracting FDI, some movement has been made on it. Housing completions are increasingly rapidly, and are only going to expand. Drive around Dublin now and building sites are everywhere. Vacant lands are finally actually being built on. The problem is its too little, much too late, from FG. Any new FF or SF (or both) government is only going to accelerate this rampening up of construction further, though, at least. Both because its now obviously a huge vote winner, and for more ideological reasons. Social housing will actually get built in large numbers, for the first time in a long time. Within 18-24 months the "crisis" stage should be over hopefully, and we should be returning just to "high rents". Within the lifespan of a new government (4~ years) we should be returning to a more normal market state. edit: some data, for context:  Basically - things are still terrible, but all indications show they are finally starting to turn around. Blut fucked around with this message at 14:42 on Feb 11, 2020 |
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Feb 11, 2020 14:29
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I wish I shared the optimism, but I can see a bunch of high-density fancydan flats being built in the radius of Silicon Docks and gently caress all elsewhere (and definitely not in the non-Dublin RPZs). Now this obviously takes some of the worst pressure off a certain segment of the housing market, but it's not what you'd call a holistic solution. Though I would agree that we're standing at a political inflection point, where the name of the game could flip from "who can enrich landlords fastest" to "who can build housing stock fastest". But without a leftist ideology in the Housing Dept. it's gonna be some wildly poo poo compromise between those two poles
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Feb 11, 2020 15:53
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https://twitter.com/fiachkelly/status/1226994892703924224?s=19 lol if FF abstains to facilitate a minority coalition of the left and then ratfucks the government every budget. Also to watch the inevitable sparks as Sol-PBP and Labour scream wordlessly at each other every available opportunity
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Feb 11, 2020 16:53
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Failed Imagineer posted:I wish I shared the optimism, but I can see a bunch of high-density fancydan flats being built in the radius of Silicon Docks and gently caress all elsewhere (and definitely not in the non-Dublin RPZs). Now this obviously takes some of the worst pressure off a certain segment of the housing market, but it's not what you'd call a holistic solution. So even if the positive trending build data doesn't fill you with optimism, there are two things worth considering: the first is that our outgoing government/minister for health are from the more economically right wing internal grouping, of the most economically right-wing party, in Irish politics. Whoever replaces him literally can't be any worse, ideologically. And will, in all likelihood, be much much better. The second is that Irish politicians of all hues are nothing if not smart, power hungry and self serving. The fact they're all now aware that housing is the dominant issue for the Irish electorate means they'll all be scrambling desperately to fix it, even if they don't at their philosophical core care much for it. kustomkarkommando posted:https://twitter.com/fiachkelly/status/1226994892703924224?s=19 That would be an extremely interesting outcome. If FF supplied S&C there'd need to be a government of 61: SF 37 + Green 12 + SocDem 6 + PBP 5 + a lefty IND or two would do it. I think LAB would stay out. FF in their minds would be giving SF enough rope to hang themselves with, by letting them go into government but making it very precarious. And FF would still maintain some control/influence on the budget. FF would also in theory avoid the backlash of outright coalition with SF. But I wonder how much electoral flak they'd get for participating another S&C agreement. One issue going against it though is I'd wonder if FF&FG would trust SF to lead the Brexit negotiations this year. FG's Neale Richmond was already making noises about that on the Claire Byrne show last night.
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Feb 11, 2020 17:58
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I'm honestly fascinated by the prospect. I wonder how much temporary unifying power Mary Lou could wield by baldly stating "FFG are trying to set us up to fail, but if we swallow our pride for a couple of years we can permanently shake their grip on the country's bollocks"
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Feb 11, 2020 18:00
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Failed Imagineer posted:I'm honestly fascinated by the prospect. I wonder how much temporary unifying power Mary Lou could wield by baldly stating "FFG are trying to set us up to fail, but if we swallow our pride for a couple of years we can permanently shake their grip on the country's bollocks" I'm wondering that, if SF make it clear "we'll take the offer, but only if it actually gets stuff done" they can presumably frame FF as being obstructionist and wasting everyone's time.
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Feb 11, 2020 18:01
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Why not just go full Official Ireland Coalition with FF+FG+Lab and every independent they can build motorways for?
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Feb 11, 2020 18:05
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Because that would be another 4 years of SF in opposition, which could possibly lead to a SF majority govt next election. Particularly as the economy could collapse basically any day now.
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Feb 11, 2020 18:32
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Failed Imagineer posted:I'm honestly fascinated by the prospect. I wonder how much temporary unifying power Mary Lou could wield by baldly stating "FFG are trying to set us up to fail, but if we swallow our pride for a couple of years we can permanently shake their grip on the country's bollocks" The deep ever abiding hatred between Labour and Solidarity will last until we're all underwater
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Feb 11, 2020 18:36
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Yeah... 
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Feb 11, 2020 18:37
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a broad left coalition accepted by FF is a very interesting prospect. SF couldn't refuse, but i do think they could use it to lever themselves into Party of Government status on a more permanent basis, and FF would be hard pressed to vote down and SF signature policies if they accepted the government in the first place. letting your opposition form a government and hoping that they'll fail is an extremely risky strategy
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Feb 11, 2020 19:35
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Failed Imagineer posted:I wish I shared the optimism, but I can see a bunch of high-density fancydan flats being built in the radius of Silicon Docks and gently caress all elsewhere (and definitely not in the non-Dublin RPZs). Now this obviously takes some of the worst pressure off a certain segment of the housing market, but it's not what you'd call a holistic solution. The new stock seems to be catering to a non-existent customer. Google have taken on developing their own housing for its employees. There’s a lot of high end stuff being built for the big tech companies but seems they started building to serve their own needs already. The IFSC and Grand canal are building lots of high end units when they already have ones available and not yet filled. Even some high end apartments were built in ballsbridge expecting to sell to high earners starting at 600k going up to over a million for 1-4 bedroom apartments. They have shifted a single unit and looks like an Investment fund is going to buy them to rent out at over 3k a month. I don’t think they will take much pressure off, seems like a bubble may have formed where investments saw how local landlords have been ripping off tenants but didn’t realize it’s not sustainable and have now over invested in over specced housing. I saw the same thing when I moved to the Rathmines. Down by Rathgar there was luxury apartments built with concierge, cafe and gym on site. But they didn’t seem to sell and are up as rentals, but last time i passed they didn’t seem occupied.
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Feb 12, 2020 02:07
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Capital Dock being over 50% empty but still raking in more than the market average per unit is a sign of the problem TBH. We're going to start seeing the vulture funds realise that they're holding onto money pits that aren't making it back and just loving off at some point, after they've tried to rent seek themselves into positive equity in the short term rather than aiming for long term stable leases.Blut posted:Re: housing market,
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Feb 12, 2020 02:37
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Southpaugh posted:Because that would be another 4 years of SF in opposition, which could possibly lead to a SF majority govt next election. Particularly as the economy could collapse basically any day now. This is it. Their grip on power would be precarious anyway, SF could strengthen, and FF+FG would be left holding the bag in what is extremely likely to be a recession soon.
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Feb 12, 2020 11:22
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Howlins resigned - very prompt exit. Leadership contest can only really be Alan Kelly v Aodhan O'Riordain right? Ged Nash's seat seems too weak Edit: sorry said he's NOT interested in being speaker kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 17:13 on Feb 12, 2020 |
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Feb 12, 2020 17:10
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kustomkarkommando posted:Howlins resigned - very prompt exit. How is the speaker decided actually?
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