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DevCore posted:I started mine right before this crash and have lost about 3k. I honestly think if I had more going in it would've been worse. This is the best time to start a retirement account, man. Good on ya. I wish all my stock ownership started right now.
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Mar 16, 2020 17:02
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Agronox posted:I still think E&P is a massive bear trap. Even if oil was still at $50 a lot of these guys were going to have problems. How long is it going to sit there at $30? It's not like there's a lot of incremental demand here in the US or in Europe--hell, half my building skipped the commute today and is working from home.
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Mar 16, 2020 17:04
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:Lol welp now we're back at 18 P/e haha took too long writing that post I’m pretty sure the E part of that ratio will be headed downwards for most companies for a while. Although it might be a good time to buy grocery chains as everyone stocks up on toilet paper for nuclear winter.
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Mar 16, 2020 17:06
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Josh Lyman posted:So you’re saying the oil stocks are likely to go lower? Isn’t that a bull trap? Or am I misunderstanding? Ugh sorry bull trap, right. Getting super distracted between this and trying to do my actual full-time job 
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Mar 16, 2020 17:11
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Josh Lyman posted:So you’re saying the oil stocks are likely to go lower? Isn’t that a bull trap? Or am I misunderstanding? Oil stocks are still drilling and exploring even with oil being super cheap and they're probably doing so at a loss which means they're essentially betting on more expensive oil and if they explore too rapidly, they might run out of cash before the price goes up especially if there's another drop in price. Commodities, especially oil, are pretty much are guaranteed to go up in price but will it be this year, next year, next decade, etc. Do they have enough cash to stay operational until OPEC decides to make money again? Aramco has enough cash to never drill for oil again, so.
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Mar 16, 2020 17:11
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Yeah oil will go up, but how high. The fantasy of oil at 100+ a barrel may be over, at least in any market where you are still pumping for it. A lot of negative production pressure on oil going into this decade, and fracing is just burning capex at this point. Everything else is may be a better deal then oil
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Mar 16, 2020 17:15
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The Clitoris posted:Yeah oil will go up, but how high. The fantasy of oil at 100+ a barrel may be over, at least in any market where you are still pumping for it. A lot of negative production pressure on oil going into this decade, and fracing is just burning capex at this point. Everything else is may be a better deal then oil I don't know man, a lot of pumping operations slowed the gently caress down after oil went from 100 to 60, and reserves that were originally determined to last about 50 years are gonna be trickling for 100 years probably.
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Mar 16, 2020 17:20
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:I'm holding May 205 puts on SPY. fwiw, i dont disagree with any of this and I am not advocating buying SPY really, though I don’t have a problem with dipping your toes in here. I am looking at things that are already down 75% and have “outperformed” to the downside- oil has some very cheap names out there right now that will either fail or make you 3x+ your money over the next few years. The big names in hotels still dont look that cheap (I like the MAR $60 target the other guy mentioned, for example) but some REITs are getting really cheap. You are absolutely right that the market can go much lower from here, but the selective bargains are definitely beginning to show up in this madness. Look at BGS for example. I didnt feel like getting into a long discussion about it but it hitting $10 the other day was definitely a great buying opp. Market appears to be coming around to the idea that AAWW is about to feast in this environment, as another example. Was a great buy in the am panic today. greasyhands fucked around with this message at 17:33 on Mar 16, 2020 |
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Mar 16, 2020 17:25
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Those reserves since the mid 2000s are mostly unconventional plays. These aren't the oil reserves of old in formations with good transmissivity and a water/gas drive. You have to continuously frac to get your return. After Capex it's a losing battle.
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Mar 16, 2020 17:26
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I think the big uncertainty is whether this ends up looking more like a 2 month pause that doesn't affect long term profitability too much, or whether the pause causes the whole economy to spiral out of control as people start losing jobs and housing and cars because everyone lives paycheck to paycheck and our safety net sucks. The government could fix it by mandating paid sick leave and sending everyone a check for $1,000 but obviously that's socialism so I guess I should dig out my Dow 10,000 hat again while we throw money at banks and exploit dying people for profit instead.
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Mar 16, 2020 17:37
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Droo posted:the pause causes the whole economy to spiral out of control as people start losing jobs and housing and cars because everyone lives paycheck to paycheck and our safety net sucks. There is gonna be some of this. The hosed up thing is we are right before the election, so this is all going to be political as poo poo.
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Mar 16, 2020 17:40
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BoJo taking a leaf out of Dolands book and announcing UK state of emergency right after market close
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Mar 16, 2020 17:42
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Shelvocke posted:BoJo taking a leaf out of Dolands book and announcing UK state of emergency right after market close edit: this isn't the thread I thought it was, maybe the UK wont be as hosed and their numbers wont be as bad. I haven't been making any plays over there at all but this news should mean someone to at least one person in this thread.
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Mar 16, 2020 17:43
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This could be the point in history where numbers really just stop adding up, as if they did already, and companies start being exposed as having more debt and less actual profits than they've been reporting to hype up the FOMO insanity.
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Mar 16, 2020 17:45
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Edit: nevermind, he was wrong
dpkg chopra fucked around with this message at 17:59 on Mar 16, 2020 |
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Mar 16, 2020 17:54
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SPY down 2% in the last 25 minutes, steady red candles. I’m getting anxious about an afternoon washout
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Mar 16, 2020 17:56
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Josh Lyman posted:SPY down 2% in the last 25 minutes, steady red candles. I’m getting anxious about an afternoon washout Cashed out this morning out of almost everything, I'll go in during/after Trump speaks. Futures might be interesting tonight
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Mar 16, 2020 17:59
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God MMs must be making so much loving money selling options. These prices are so crazy.
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Mar 16, 2020 18:02
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jokes posted:God MMs must be making so much loving money selling options. These prices are so crazy. *MM last monday* "wow selling SPY 270 puts are like free money"
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Mar 16, 2020 18:03
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Ha Ha Ha what the gently caress are you doing, Cortexyme
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Mar 16, 2020 18:04
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Meyers-Briggs Testicle posted:*MM last monday* "wow selling SPY 270 puts are like free money" If you keep punting the can eventually you are writing puts under the bottom and can't fail! Unless you think SPY 0 puts are going to be reached and pay out. Banks of the infinite money that is required to make this actually viable.
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Mar 16, 2020 18:05
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Garfu posted:ty lote What are the values representative of? You didn’t buy 30,000 contracts did you?
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Mar 16, 2020 18:05
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Lote posted:What are the values representative of? You didn’t buy 30,000 contracts did you? Garfu posted:Yes, sorry didn't want to show all my other poo poo, but I filtered it:
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Mar 16, 2020 18:06
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greasyhands posted:fwiw, i dont disagree with any of this and I am not advocating buying SPY really, though I don’t have a problem with dipping your toes in here. I am looking at things that are already down 75% and have “outperformed” to the downside- oil has some very cheap names out there right now that will either fail or make you 3x+ your money over the next few years. The big names in hotels still dont look that cheap (I like the MAR $60 target the other guy mentioned, for example) but some REITs are getting really cheap. You are absolutely right that the market can go much lower from here, but the selective bargains are definitely beginning to show up in this madness. Look at BGS for example. I didnt feel like getting into a long discussion about it but it hitting $10 the other day was definitely a great buying opp. Market appears to be coming around to the idea that AAWW is about to feast in this environment, as another example. Was a great buy in the am panic today. also fwiw I do agree that this is the time to evaluate individual stocks instead of just playing broad indices and to both target winners and losers. I bought CPE on your advice a few days ago; mainly because it was too nice an opportunity to pass up. also REITs are getting very cheap; I've taken a hit of 20% on my indexing portfolio, but ~42% on my reits. Fortunately I trimmed them all up at the top, not out of some sort of prescience but just by virtue of it getting top heavy and wanting some liquidity for degenerate gambling.
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Mar 16, 2020 18:08
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Man, trying to scalp 10-20 ES points is super stressful when it can reverse on you in literally 15 seconds. There are some decent opportunities here and there but it's stressful af and according to my physical last Thursday, I already have slightly high blood pressue. 
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Mar 16, 2020 18:10
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Josh Lyman posted:He did Noice. I’m phone posting so can’t show an image but peep the $RRR intraday. f
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Mar 16, 2020 18:10
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Lote posted:What are the values representative of? You didn’t buy 30,000 contracts did you? TDAM is showing open interest of 743 for that contract 
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Mar 16, 2020 18:15
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100 shares per contract and 300 contracts? The numbers line up
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Mar 16, 2020 18:23
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Apparently rumor on Twitter is that they’re bringing in the national guard to close down $CZR casinos that’s happening in the next few hours 
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Mar 16, 2020 18:27
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edit: scratch what I say here. Something's weird.
Agronox fucked around with this message at 18:39 on Mar 16, 2020 |
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Mar 16, 2020 18:27
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:Ha Ha Ha what the gently caress are you doing, Cortexyme It's down to my cost basis for the 1 share I own because the fidelity platform sucks balls. Gonna buy some in my IRA
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Mar 16, 2020 18:31
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Agronox posted:The post is for 30,000 contracts not shares. edit: and it is enormously difficult to actually move 30,000 contracts on a single name, way OTM, months down the line, without getting totally ripped apart on the spreads (if you can find an offer at all).
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Mar 16, 2020 18:32
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:Ha Ha Ha what the gently caress are you doing, Cortexyme I copped some at 31, let's see
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Mar 16, 2020 18:33
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It has ranged from $28 to $39 today  Their trial could be pretty hosed if people stop reporting to the clinic for their weekly pills
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Mar 16, 2020 18:35
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That's how TDAM shows it for me on the unrealized gains/losses tab. This is from the order status page:  
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Mar 16, 2020 18:37
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Garfu posted:That's how TDAM shows it for me on the unrealized gains/losses tab. Got it, got it. I realized a minute ago that something was funky--they're saying 30,000 quantity in your earlier post when it should've been 300. Weird.
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Mar 16, 2020 18:40
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I've got about 1200 sitting in RH, what do I buy and wheeeeeeeennnn. also hat tip to Lote for the excellent CZR DD.
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Mar 16, 2020 18:42
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ketchup vs catsup posted:I've got about 1200 sitting in RH, what do I buy and wheeeeeeeennnn. move your poo poo out of RobinHood before they go bankrupt and you have to wait for a lengthy settlement to get your money back out
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Mar 16, 2020 18:47
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Are you referring to the rumors that they maxed their credit line last week?
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Mar 16, 2020 18:48
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It's just a bad company, OP. Buy Robinhood puts IMO
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Mar 16, 2020 18:49
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