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More people are going to die in the inevitable heat death of the universe than the Roni Heh checkmate libtards
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Apr 5, 2020 19:00
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Platystemon posted:Isn’t this still the Case Fatality Rate? For a while there was hope that there was huge numbers of asymptomatic people, that this disease only looked real bad because only the worst people were presenting, but when they did mass testing less than a quarter of people didn't have symptoms, most people that get this get sick. Like there is enough asymptomatic people to be potential typhoid marys, but not enough that it's gonna turn out there was some 8 million people infected that didn't notice and all this hysteria was all silly for some disease that barely kills anyone at all but accidently looked like it because only a few rare outliers noticed they got it. diamond cruise: The posterior median estimate of the true proportion of asymptomatic individuals among the reported asymptomatic cases is 0.35 (95% credible interval (CrI): 0.30–0.39), with the estimated total number of the true asymptomatic cases at 113.3 (95%CrI: 98.2–128.3) and the estimated asymptomatic proportion (among all infected cases) at 17.9% (95%CrI: 15.5–20.2%).
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Apr 5, 2020 19:02
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:No, the answer lies in the fact this is not and has not been a hoax, and the idea this is just a little bit worse than the flu has been repeatedly floated and repeatedly failed to be correct. The death rate varies by age and health and is between .2% for young people and 15% for old people, with a general average being 2.5% for a population. It is not the case that really secretly this really only has a 1% or <1% fatality rate because no one thought to count right and all those dummies are just over reacting to a silly cold. It is not the case that if we just counted better we would find out this wasn't actually so bad, it's actually bad! It's even bigger bullshit than this. They aren't just saying that the numbers are being counted wrong, they're saying that there's some massive group of people (silent majority lol) who had symptoms so mild that they weren't being tested at all. It's unbelievably dangerous because it's morphing into this idea that widescale immunity already exists. Lots of loving idiots are going to say "I had a cough last month so I'm immune" and ignore everything they should be doing.
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Apr 5, 2020 19:07
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Welp.
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Apr 5, 2020 19:10
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Platystemon posted:Isn’t this still the Case Fatality Rate? It is not. The case fatality rate is the portion of people who once infected (a "case"), go on to die over a time period being defined as the course of the disease. (The rest, of course, recover.) You can't determine it without a lot of good testing data. You obviously can't get an accurate number by dividing deaths by total positive because in active phase of an epidemic a lot of people will come up positive who are early in the infection and haven't had time to die or recover yet. At the very beginning of an outbreak being detected, case fatality will look really high because severe cases and deaths are going to be what brings it to attention and will be overrepresented, and if people die at say two weeks but it takes four weeks for the disease to run its course then you won't have those "closed recovered" cases to look at. That's why some people have suggested that dividing current deaths number by the total cases number from two weeks ago is a reasonable guesstimate. I think at this point with the chaos in places like NYC, Detroit and NOLA we're going to be missing a lot of deaths of people who die at home or die in the ER and never get tested. https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S1473-3099%2820%2930246-2
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Apr 5, 2020 19:10
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Paradoxish posted:It's even bigger bullshit than this. They aren't just saying that the numbers are being counted wrong, they're saying that there's some massive group of people (silent majority lol) who had symptoms so mild that they weren't being tested at all. It's unbelievably dangerous because it's morphing into this idea that widescale immunity already exists. Lots of loving idiots are going to say "I had a cough last month so I'm immune" and ignore everything they should be doing. Yeah, even just this thread has had countless "I had a sore throat, must be le roni, lol, hahaha." posts of people that had entirely mundane diseases but now have some belief they are immune. Asymptomatic and low symptom cases exist, but the meme that they are the majority is not what the facts show. Even the "80% are mild" statistic is defining mild as "<50% lung involvement on imaging" If you get it you almost certainly get a fever and other major symptoms. If you are young the disease doesn't progress to the point you die, but you get sick in a way you know you are quite ill. In a majority of all cases. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guidance-management-patients.html Fever (83–99%) Cough (59–82%) Fatigue (44–70%) Anorexia (40–84%) Shortness of breath (31–40%) Sputum production (28–33%) Myalgias (11–35%)
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Apr 5, 2020 19:27
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Zwabu posted:That's why some people have suggested that dividing current deaths number by the total cases number from two weeks ago is a reasonable guesstimate. I think at this point with the chaos in places like NYC, Detroit and NOLA we're going to be missing a lot of deaths of people who die at home or die in the ER and never get tested. Is this including people whose cause of death is recorded as "acute pneumonia" or similar that don't explicitly state Covid-19?
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Apr 5, 2020 19:30
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Arrgytehpirate posted:“It didn’t affect me at all but they still gave me $58,000” Danish government has/will (not sure if the law has been passed yet) quadruple the punishment (fine and jailtime) for white-collar crime in relation to our aid package (ie pro-forma employment, cooking the books, fraud). I think that's sensible. For an arrangement such as the one you describe I think the usual sentence is 18 months - so that would be 6 years with the corona-bonus. If there are enough zeros on the money involved, the punishment for fraud is 6-7 years, so that would be 25 years give or take. PederP fucked around with this message at 19:35 on Apr 5, 2020 |
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Apr 5, 2020 19:32
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Paradoxish posted:It's even bigger bullshit than this. They aren't just saying that the numbers are being counted wrong, they're saying that there's some massive group of people (silent majority lol) who had symptoms so mild that they weren't being tested at all. It's unbelievably dangerous because it's morphing into this idea that widescale immunity already exists. Lots of loving idiots are going to say "I had a cough last month so I'm immune" and ignore everything they should be doing. The exact statistical rates don't really matter because they don't change the situation on the ground. We can look at the total numbers of deaths/hospitalizations, and we can see it following a really worrying trend. It's unrealistic to assume that we're close to the end right now. Even if we were, that doesn't change the fact that NYC is getting slammed, and that the healthcare system is being pushed past its limits. Whether the death is 3% or 2% or >1% doesn't really change the situation on the ground. Going into a hospital that is being overrun and telling everyone "It's okay, it turns out that we missed half of the cases when calculating our incident rate and now all the rates are half of what they were" doesn't make a bed shortage less of a crisis.
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Apr 5, 2020 19:35
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PederP posted:Danish government has/will (not sure if the law has been passed yet) quadruple the punishment (fine and jailtime) for white-collar crime in relation to our aid package (ie pro-forma employment, cooking the books, fraud). I think that's sensible. It's kind of milquetoast, to be honest. They should at least octuple the punishment. At least
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Apr 5, 2020 19:35
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Jagged Jim posted:Welp.
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Apr 5, 2020 19:37
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Libluini posted:It's kind of milquetoast, to be honest. They should at least octuple the punishment. At least The judicial IT system probably can't handle more than 25 year sentences.
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Apr 5, 2020 19:37
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Jagged Jim posted:Welp. Real estate in Florida about to get real cheap.
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Apr 5, 2020 19:44
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One of my coworkers might have it. The likelihood of me getting it from them is low (we haven’t interacted in two weeks) but I’d rather not become a jelly-filled donut 
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Apr 5, 2020 19:50
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Haramstufe Rot posted:Germany should do the same with all ventilators and meds. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...s-idUSKBN20T166 They did, like three weeks ago.
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Apr 5, 2020 19:51
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grack posted:Real estate in Florida about to get real cheap. People were essentially showing up with suitcases full of cash and buying property sight-unseen. Sellers market is fun for sellers I imagine. Wonder what property in SF is like? https://i.imgur.com/iBYd5Xg.mp4 Nonsense fucked around with this message at 19:58 on Apr 5, 2020 |
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Apr 5, 2020 19:55
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:Yeah, even just this thread has had countless "I had a sore throat, must be le roni, lol, hahaha." posts of people that had entirely mundane diseases but now have some belief they are immune. Asymptomatic and low symptom cases exist, but the meme that they are the majority is not what the facts show. Even the "80% are mild" statistic is defining mild as "<50% lung involvement on imaging" Yeah, people acting like this is super dumb. I'm sick right now, the nurse at my local hotline says it's probably covid, I have most of the major symptoms except a fever, and after I recover from whatever this is I'm still going to be acting like I didn't catch it because they're not testing me so I don't actually know and in the interest of everyone's health I can definitely self isolate for a little while longer just in case. And while my symptoms are definitely only mild, this still suuuuuuuuuper sucks to have.
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Apr 5, 2020 20:00
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There are definitely a lot of people who have it that are home and not getting tested (or can't) and aren't going to the hospital, so the true case number is going to be much higher than the official reports. I have seen a lot of stories about even people going to the hospital with symptoms not getting tested. Here in FL like 60-70% of our total cases are confined to South Florida. We have had some in Central FL but it's not anywhere close to South Florida levels yet. The rest of the cases are in Tampa Bay and Jacksonville.
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Apr 5, 2020 20:07
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That spike is gonna come hard https://twitter.com/AmarAmarasingam/status/1246658639785492480?s=19
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Apr 5, 2020 20:08
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My Granddad told me never to mess with a dogs food, and never feed one from your own plate. That concludes my pet knowledge.
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Apr 5, 2020 20:11
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Anyone know when the IMHE model updates? Up until yesterday they had a message at the top that said "check back Saturday, April 4th for our next update" but they removed the message last night.
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Apr 5, 2020 20:12
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FlamingLiberal posted:There are definitely a lot of people who have it that are home and not getting tested (or can't) and aren't going to the hospital, so the true case number is going to be much higher than the official reports. I have seen a lot of stories about even people going to the hospital with symptoms not getting tested. I know someone who 100% has COVID-19. She spent the first two days vomiting (not on that list), and ended up with almost every other symptom. At one point, she was monitoring her blood oxygen and it dipped to 85%, but she held off on going to the hospital and it improved over the next two days. She is 31 years old. The real kicker here is she is a hospice RN and she first got symptoms maybe 2 weeks ago; when she tried to get tested (Indiana), they told her “no, go home and stay there.” Edit She has not told me this, but my sister told me that this sick person I am mentioning also explained to her how the people at her hospice were all dropping dead much more quickly than expected from pneumonia for three loving weeks prior to the first shutdown here. How much do you want to bet, Indiana could add an untold number of people to that COVID-19 death total from cases of people who were going to die anyway, so COVID-19 will never appear on their death certificate. ZombieLenin fucked around with this message at 20:34 on Apr 5, 2020 |
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Apr 5, 2020 20:29
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BetterToRuleInHell posted:More people are going to die in the inevitable heat death of the universe than the Roni I'm fairly sure, we will all be gone earlier than that.
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Apr 5, 2020 20:30
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Quantum Shart posted:That spike is gonna come hard
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Apr 5, 2020 20:33
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Grouchio posted:At least it will be very karmic it's predestination, man
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Apr 5, 2020 20:39
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It's not just the US blaming China https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe...405-p54h5b.html quote:
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Apr 5, 2020 20:40
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FlamingLiberal posted:There are definitely a lot of people who have it that are home and not getting tested (or can't) and aren't going to the hospital, so the true case number is going to be much higher than the official reports. I have seen a lot of stories about even people going to the hospital with symptoms not getting tested. I'm wondering how much the actual disease specific death rate matters at this point. Hospitals are at or beyond capacity, people have lost their jobs and health care, shortages of supplies and housing, and god knows what else are all going compound and push deaths higher. I feel like the number of Covid attributable deaths will far out pace the hypothetical "true" mortality rate and actual # of infections. Starving people, with existing medical conditions, kicked out on the streets due to being laid off are going to die even if they never contracted the disease. The US system is primed to collapse here.
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Apr 5, 2020 20:41
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of course it's the countries that were going to try to brute force herd immunity by doing literally nothing that are now desperately trying to shift the blame anywhere elseCrain posted:I'm wondering how much the actual disease specific death rate matters at this point. Hospitals are at or beyond capacity, people have lost their jobs and health care, shortages of supplies and housing, and god knows what else are all going compound and push deaths higher. I feel like the number of Covid attributable deaths will far out pace the hypothetical "true" mortality rate and actual # of infections. yeah pretty much. At this point, death rate is just going to tell you how many hundreds of thousands of americans will die. While the difference between 300,000 and 900,000 is huge, that we're even at that point is the real failing. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 20:46 on Apr 5, 2020 |
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Apr 5, 2020 20:44
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Crain posted:I'm wondering how much the actual disease specific death rate matters at this point. Hospitals are at or beyond capacity, people have lost their jobs and health care, shortages of supplies and housing, and god knows what else are all going compound and push deaths higher. I feel like the number of Covid attributable deaths will far out pace the hypothetical "true" mortality rate and actual # of infections. The death rates will rise as hospitals continue to fill up and people that may have survived with proper treatment won't because there are no beds.
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Apr 5, 2020 20:46
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FlamingLiberal posted:It doesn't matter except for history's sake at this point. There are a lot of deaths where the cause of death is probably because of COVID-19 but it gets labeled as 'pneumonia' or 'ARDS' which was probably due to COVID-19. That's the entire reason for the stay at home orders, so we can limit the overburdening of our healthcare system. The Virus will still spread to the majority of the population, just hopefully not all at once.
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Apr 5, 2020 20:51
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3rdEyeDeuteranopia posted:It's not just the US blaming China Well if a right wing conservative think tank says it I guess it must be true then
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Apr 5, 2020 20:56
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Does anyone have the link to the twitter thread on why the antibody tests with 95% accuracy are actually unreliable because of math and statistics that I don't understand handy?
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Apr 5, 2020 20:57
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3rdEyeDeuteranopia posted:It's not just the US blaming China Oh no, a shady British rightwing organization with previous form for spreading anti-China propaganda does the same!
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Apr 5, 2020 20:59
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A Typical Goon posted:Well if a right wing conservative think tank says it I guess it must be true then They have also been accused of anti-China campaigns, at the behest of their anonymous funders, in the past.
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Apr 5, 2020 21:02
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Oh dear me posted:Oh no, a shady British rightwing organization with previous form for spreading anti-China propaganda does the same! It’s very much an Anglo-sphere thing. Australia has pol’s spouting much the same poo poo.
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Apr 5, 2020 21:03
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3rdEyeDeuteranopia posted:It's not just the US blaming China The UK bringing the reparations topic to the table will certainly work out well for them.
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Apr 5, 2020 21:07
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Racism aside. I read that Chinese companies are buying their way into Australian companies and causing all kinds of poo poo. Like making life really hard for Hong Kong immigrants.
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Apr 5, 2020 21:08
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What's the statute of limitations on empire
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Apr 5, 2020 21:10
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My fiancé and I get to have the “please stop bringing your girlfriend over during the pandemic, you are taking advantage of our generosity and not taking this situation seriously enough” conversation with our roommate tomorrow and it’s been causing me untold amounts of stress. She’s been coming over four days out of the week and still goes out to work (she is not an essential employee) every day and goes hiking with him in the weekends. I’m losing my mind.
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Apr 5, 2020 21:15
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HookShot posted:Does anyone have the link to the twitter thread on why the antibody tests with 95% accuracy are actually unreliable because of math and statistics that I don't understand handy? Don't have the link, but the short short version is if a million people take it and you have a 5% false positive rate, you get 50000 people who think they had the virus when they didn't yet have the virus. If 1% of those million actually had the virus (10000 people), then 9500 of those will be true positives. That means you get 59500 people who think they had the virus, even though only 9500 really had it. (e.g. 5% of a big number is more than 95% of a small number)
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Apr 5, 2020 21:17
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