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Define 'excessive', Forbes.
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Apr 12, 2020 22:42
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Grouchio posted:I just don't want the second wave of Covid to somehow be worse than the current one. Or for all entertainment industries to collapse forever. apperently it might be. whats scarier is folks arent sure about immunity yet.
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Apr 12, 2020 22:49
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The questions about immunity are likely the result of testing problems.
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Apr 12, 2020 22:50
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Dapper_Swindler posted:kinda. once the virus burns out in an area, than probably. its a very slow process. plus most people probably wont go out for couple weeks after the all clear. That's never happened anywhere on Earth yet. We don't know if it can burn out. It might be like the epidemics of old that just stuck around for decades and didn't even have proper waves, more like bursts of death appearing at random in areas already hit hard. It's incredibly dangerous that many think this something a city, region or country can get over after enough pain, and then return to normal. Hopefully it's like that. But we cannot be sure. China doesn't think so, or they'd have let it burn out in Wuhan and traded lives for less economic pain. If I'm right about this then until we have a treatment there is going back to normal. No 'all clear'. Smallpox and polio weren't something that burned out anywhere until vaccines came around. I think it's quite possible Humanity is up for another lesson in humility. Not that we'll learn. We're dumb like that. But for a short time we'll remember that there things we can't control. Maybe we'll accept it - like the weather and earthquakes. We can predict those (somewhat), plan for them and enact emergency procedures when necessary, but we can't make them go a way. We can't control when they happen. Disease is like that too. Nature doesn't give a gently caress that we find it inconvenient to isolate and have our economies smashed to pieces. It certainly doesn't act out vengeance like some dumb asses claim ("derp derp we hurt mother earth now she's gettingn even") - don't anthropomorphize the arbitrary cruelty of the natural order. Even if we're really good to the environment, stop global warming and all convert to Jainism, nature is still going to send us a pandemic gift once in a while. And every time we think we've gotten so good at science and medicine that it won't happen again, it's still going to happen eventually. I just wish we'd at least get our act together right now and get through this lovely pandemic in a rational fashion. I'm probably one of the least capitalism-averse goons in existence, but this capitalist optimism is retarded beyond belief. I hate all -isms, but I used to think capitalism tempered with Scandinavian-style welfare and solidarity was the least awful in most respects. But it's sure proving to be exceptionally bad at handling a pandemic. The degree of insane optimism is every bit as bad as the systemic incompetence and deception of the Soviet Union which led to Chernobyl. And the people of the west can't blame the system keeping the facts hidden - it's right in our face. It's so loving obvious that we need to take this seriously and stop wanting to go back to normal. I guess I'll just hate every single political and social system. They're all dumb and not merely incapable of handling disasters, but actively worsening them. This pandemic is making me an even more bitter old fart than I was already, and I honestly didn't think that was possible.
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Apr 12, 2020 22:52
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Dapper_Swindler posted:apperently it might be. whats scarier is folks arent sure about immunity yet. Well, they aren't sure wether it holds a few months, one year, three years or a lifetime. That's not really testable right now. It's quite definetly proven that you are immune for a while.
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Apr 12, 2020 22:52
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Slugworth posted:Define 'excessive', Forbes. I hate the headline but the actual article does not tilt me. It's a brief, editorialized stats analysis; it's weak in that it concludes with "what does this mean? We'll see eventually!" and doesn't actually take much of a stance. However, it doesn't use the word "excessive", or any synonym for it from the first syonym dictionary I looked at It's a fluff piece with a yellow headline and a few interesting numbers in it. The lead in is also a welcome retort to the stupid "learn a new skill!" memes.
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Apr 12, 2020 22:55
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PederP posted:That's never happened anywhere on Earth yet. We don't know if it can burn out. It might be like the epidemics of old that just stuck around for decades and didn't even have proper waves, more like bursts of death appearing at random in areas already hit hard. It's incredibly dangerous that many think this something a city, region or country can get over after enough pain, and then return to normal. Hopefully it's like that. But we cannot be sure. China doesn't think so, or they'd have let it burn out in Wuhan and traded lives for less economic pain. yeah. its scary poo poo. i am just staying inside(do walks though) and i probably will for a while. whats worse is its both the systemic incompetence and the dumb insane optimism because trump and co are at the head and thats what makes this even scarier is that a majority of people (rightfully) dont believe a loving thing they say.
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Apr 12, 2020 22:57
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No, these activities are hitting their natural steady states now that the excessive commuting and working have finally been reduced.
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Apr 12, 2020 23:04
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Grouchio posted:I just don't want the second wave of Covid to somehow be worse than the current one. Or for all entertainment industries to collapse forever. We're going to survive only on new episodes of the Boys, Cobra Kai, Star Trek Discovery, WandaVision, Agents of Shield, and the Mandalorian. After that, we will be out of any new filmed television I'm aware of.
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Apr 12, 2020 23:10
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Once there's any evidence that it reinfects people I will start to freak out about that, but afaik there's zero evidence of any kind of notably substantial reinfection
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Apr 12, 2020 23:13
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who's this dude that can't even keep time lmao
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Apr 12, 2020 23:22
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Once there's any evidence that it reinfects people I will start to freak out about that, but afaik there's zero evidence of any kind of notably substantial reinfection There are like 3 annectdotal cases of claimed reinfections. But that's far to rare to consider that significant. If you could actually infect yourself shortly after an infection really passed, we would have hundreds of such stories by now.
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Apr 12, 2020 23:23
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Once there's any evidence that it reinfects people I will start to freak out about that, but afaik there's zero evidence of any kind of notably substantial reinfection Said it a few times: there is no disease on earth that gives 100% immunity to 100% of people. Even diseases like chicken pox that everyone knows you can only get once has some percentage of people that get it again, even vaccines where you inject virus parts and boosters to get an immune response to it has a few percent of people that for whatever random reason still can get it. It's not a question of IF people can get this multiple times, it's what percent of people can and with so many tens of thousands of people in close contact to cases after having it there is no indication the percent is anything particularly high. It'd be weirder if there wasn't some sub 1% of people that don't develop good immunity just because that is how every other disease works.
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Apr 12, 2020 23:26
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All I can say is I hope that there is a light at the end of this tunnel. And that unemployment doesn't continue to exponentially increase past 25% until every last American is jobless.cant cook creole bream posted:There are like 3 annectdotal cases of claimed reinfections. But that's far to rare to consider that significant. If you could actually infect yourself shortly after an infection really passed, we would have hundreds of such stories by now.
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Apr 12, 2020 23:28
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Grouchio posted:All I can say is I hope that there is a light at the end of this tunnel. And that unemployment doesn't continue to exponentially increase past 25% until every last American is jobless. Some diseases have WORSE symptoms the second time around. See dengue fever.
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Apr 12, 2020 23:30
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Grouchio posted:I just don't want the second wave of Covid to somehow be worse than the current one. Or for all entertainment industries to collapse forever. I|m mostly terrified that some of the big movie studios may avoid bankruptcy and survive. That would suddenly make all the deaths not worth it.
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Apr 12, 2020 23:41
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Nitrousoxide posted:Some diseases have WORSE symptoms the second time around. See dengue fever. Not to be alarmists, but a 2nd bout of reduced lung capacity sounds uhhh...bad.
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Apr 12, 2020 23:42
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Grouchio posted:All I can say is I hope that there is a light at the end of this tunnel. And that unemployment doesn't continue to exponentially increase past 25% until every last American is jobless. If COVID fucks up your lungs as is speculated? No
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Apr 12, 2020 23:42
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Yeah throw that drat model out the loving window because we aren’t having the strict nationwide shutdown through all of May and into June like it demands for its projections. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1249453028178001920 Blue states and I guess Ohio will tell him to gently caress off, red states will listen to him, and all of us will suffer to some varying degree.
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Apr 12, 2020 23:42
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steinrokkan posted:If COVID fucks up your lungs as is speculated? No Or heart
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Apr 12, 2020 23:51
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How are the states supposed to get face masks if Kushner keeps hoarding them like Smaug?
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Apr 12, 2020 23:51
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surf rock posted:https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1249373172690046977 The model doesn’t underestimate in a way that will be correlated with real future trends. The only thing the model cares about is how many confirmed cases existed when shelter in place orders were handed down. It does not account for how broad those orders were, how diligently they were followed, or how strictly enforced. It does not account for how much testing was done, and how wrong the confirmed cases number may be. It does not account for structural factors like population density or access to healthcare.
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Apr 13, 2020 00:01
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The lovely moralizing about trivial things is getting really loving tiresome. People still seem to think that some perfect level of ~stay the gently caress home~ for long enough will make this go away. It won't. The level of eventual deaths cannot be reduced at this point beyond making sure everyone gets good hospital treatment by slowing cases. We cannot erase this by just never going outside for 18 months which is something more people seem to be seriously suggesting. Not only is that insanely cruel to anyone living alone, it won't even work!! We need a more livable system. The goal was 'flatten the curve' not 'erase the virus'. People should be able to go hug a friend once in a while, the actual risk is pretty small and its about reducing the statistical average spread from person to person not perfect isolation Mince Pieface fucked around with this message at 00:04 on Apr 13, 2020 |
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Apr 13, 2020 00:02
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Mince Pieface posted:The lovely moralizing about trivial things is getting really loving tiresome. I haven’t seen any non crazy person say we need to stay locked up for 12-18 months. Obviously we can’t do that. But opening up in May is simply too drat early. The difference in how much we have a handle on this virus between May 1 and June 1 or July 1 if need be IF we do things right can be cavernous and allow for us to reclaim some of our freedoms back.
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Apr 13, 2020 00:06
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:I haven’t seen any non crazy person say we need to stay locked up for 12-18 months. This seems to be turning a lot of people into crazy people. There's a post going around by a nurse saying exactly that, maybe it's just my friend group idk.
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Apr 13, 2020 00:10
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Mince Pieface posted:The lovely moralizing about trivial things is getting really loving tiresome. There's a big difference between keeping things relatively locked down until June/July and never going outside ever again. Social distancing practices need to become a part of everyday life for a while. That means physical distancing when you're in public places, but also eliminating non-essential group activities. It's lovely to keep things like parks and outdoor spaces closed down, but they also shouldn't be opened if we can't enforce occupancy limits and distancing precautions at them. We also really can't allow large public gatherings like concerts, conventions, conferences, etc. Bars and restaurants probably need to remain shut down unless we can enforce some really strict capacity limitations. It's just not really true that we can't prevent deaths and infections. Yes, "flattening the curve" isn't actually about reducing the total number of cases, but we can keep widespread outbreaks from occurring until we can get a vaccine in place or better treatment options. It sucks, but life isn't going back to normal for a while. The only question is whether governments will be smart enough to keep restrictions in place so that we can manage this or if everything just goes to poo poo because people will be too scared to leave their homes when flare-ups keep happening.
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Apr 13, 2020 00:10
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I know things are tough and I speak from a position of a good bit of privilege being a single person with no kids or dependents to worry about. But if people are able to keep their wits about them for a couple more months and the people in charge don’t direct us off a cliff things will get a good bit better.
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Apr 13, 2020 00:14
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I agree large gatherings and stuff will need to be shut down for a while and changes made to public spaces, this is mostly about allowing low risk practices like household get-togethers with 2 co-living groups. That said, my opinion is there will never be a vaccine. The best bets are going to be biologics specifically designed for this- antivirals that actually work around the mechanisms of this particular virus. Its unlikely any current antivirals are going to work particularly well
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Apr 13, 2020 00:17
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lol that IHME projection https://twitter.com/viskot/status/1249450485435772928?s=19 https://twitter.com/umich1goblue/status/1249379649945288711?s=19 https://twitter.com/CraigBruney/status/1249377201520181249?s=19 https://twitter.com/BurntOutCase/status/1249379314937802753?s=19 MiddleOne fucked around with this message at 00:24 on Apr 13, 2020 |
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Apr 13, 2020 00:17
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Countdown until the next time Trump makes excuses: 1... 2...
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Apr 13, 2020 00:19
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Mince Pieface posted:I agree large gatherings and stuff will need to be shut down for a while and changes made to public spaces, this is mostly about allowing low risk practices like household get-togethers with 2 co-living groups. A lot of spread is happening within families and small groups, though. But also, almost no one in the US is stopping you from doing these things, but you really need to practice common sense. If you have two people who are both working from home and otherwise isolated then, yeah, who cares if they get together. Larger groups (like 5+) of friends getting together is questionable, especially if some of them still need to go into the office or other people in the group have contact with high-risk relatives. There's a spectrum here where you really go from "yeah this is probably fine" to "you are unnecessarily exposing other people to much greater risk."
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Apr 13, 2020 00:26
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Yeah throw that drat model out the loving window because we aren’t having the strict nationwide shutdown through all of May and into June like it demands for its projections. so next week then i guess?
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Apr 13, 2020 00:26
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Mince Pieface posted:This seems to be turning a lot of people into crazy people. There's a post going around by a nurse saying exactly that, maybe it's just my friend group idk. I honestly have no idea how long everyone actually "needs" to be isolated. BUT, there are a few key factors that need to happen before it's lifted safely: 1. Comprehensive anti-body testing for everyone. And even that assumes that the data is correct and someone cant be reinfected. Personally, unless my kids can either confirm they are immune via an antibody test or via a vaccine I don't want to send them to school. 2. Vaccine. Without one there is literally nothing preventing a person from getting sick. IE: Grandparents are gonna be at risk until there is a way to immunize them completely. Even then anyone with a compromised immune system is still at risk, just hopefully hospitals will be under capacity to handle them at that point. 3. People need to stop being dumb. Seriously. There is a study from South Korea about how the majority of their existing cases at one point stemmed from a single person who tested positive and broke protocol. And lets face it, Americans are some of the most stubborn and blindingly ignorant people around. Case in point, Texas or Florida. So unless all that can happen by the end of summer this isn't going to end anytime soon.
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Apr 13, 2020 00:27
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:I haven’t seen any non crazy person say we need to stay locked up for 12-18 months. Obviously we can’t do that. But opening up in May is simply too drat early. The difference in how much we have a handle on this virus between May 1 and June 1 or July 1 if need be IF we do things right can be cavernous and allow for us to reclaim some of our freedoms back. Not "stay locked up for 12-18 months", but rolling shutdowns for the next 12-18 months are not out of the question: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-12/fed-s-kashkari-says-u-s-may-face-18-months-of-rolling-shutdowns?srnd=fixed-income
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Apr 13, 2020 00:29
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HOW DARE THEY! HOW ABSOLUTELY DARE THEY?!
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Apr 13, 2020 00:29
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MiddleOne posted:lol that IHME projection https://twitter.com/d_spiegel/status/1248678440800305152?s=19 https://twitter.com/edrennie77/status/1249032522291458048?s=19 Projections is one hell of a drug. MiddleOne fucked around with this message at 00:33 on Apr 13, 2020 |
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Apr 13, 2020 00:30
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Retro42 posted:I honestly have no idea how long everyone actually "needs" to be isolated. BUT, there are a few key factors that need to happen before it's lifted safely: You're going to stay locked up until there's a vaccine? Have fun being locked up 5-10 years, or possibly forever.
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Apr 13, 2020 00:32
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Paradoxish posted:A lot of spread is happening within families and small groups, though. Well my point is that spead among co-living groups is basically guaranteed. I mostly agree with your assessment about risk I'm just annoyed at the rhetoric being thrown around doesn't seem to show that nuance, I guess.
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Apr 13, 2020 00:35
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Mince Pieface posted:You're going to stay locked up until there's a vaccine? Have fun being locked up 5-10 years, or possibly forever. No, but I'm fairly certain we already had it. An antibody test will confirm. But sending EVERY kid back without either a test or a vaccine is just reckless.
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Apr 13, 2020 00:35
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https://twitter.com/thedailybeast/status/1249478004042084355 i dont think fauci will last.
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Apr 13, 2020 00:39
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