Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Post
  • Reply
Mr. Steak
May 9, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
##vote moat

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

merk posted:

We don't have to use all four lynches. Confirming 2-3 town would be fine.

Agreed. It think either way we go (town/scum) going for 3 is probably more optimal than going for 4 unless there is a LOT of agreement on people's probable alignment

merk
May 20, 2003

##interact

Somberbrero posted:

I'm just going to get the ball rolling, voting Grandi for town ##vote Grandicap

Bifauxnen posted:

Ok ok, then you and me and Moat, I hope?

##vote Grandi

Somb and Bif thinking Grandi is town with no case for it, no analysis of the setup to justify it, and in spite of Grandi advocating we lynch town yesterday?

merk
May 20, 2003

##interact

Mr. Steak posted:

##vote moat

I also think a Moat vote is bad now. If Grandi is scum, he clearly wants you to vote Moat, no? What happens in a Grandi/Moat where just one is scum?

I’d assume Grandi. What would you think there?

merk
May 20, 2003

##interact
Rushing into a Grandi vote where half of the voters thinks he's town and half think he's scum was pretty dumb.

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

merk posted:

Rushing into a Grandi vote where half of the voters thinks he's town and half think he's scum was pretty dumb.

Lol I was just about to post this

I think there is a schism about most everyone though.

merk
May 20, 2003

##interact
Well. ##vote merk makes sense to me right this second.

Thinking more.

Bifauxnen
Aug 12, 2010

Curses! Foiled again!


merk posted:

Somb and Bif thinking Grandi is town with no case for it, no analysis of the setup to justify it, and in spite of Grandi advocating we lynch town yesterday?

Wtf dude I wrote a pretty long thing analysing it

Also what do you mean "in spite of Grandi advocating we lunch town yesterday", like that fuckin matters on "D1", Mister Wanted To Say He Cased Townie Vimes Before Me

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

So still thinking this out of course, but our goal with lunches this game is less to "find scum" and more to confirm people into one alignment or the other. Any day we don't do that is essentially a wasted day although it does give us SOME info. But at the end of the day confirming two people into any alignment for sure is better than knowing 1 of these 4 people is scum. I think it's VERY easy for scum to just convince three townies one of the scum is townie and basically sabotage trying to load 4 town onto one lunch.

Maybe I am being dumb at math, but isn't it going to be easier to try and confirm 4 scum than 9 town? Like if we spend 2 days lunching the three scummiest people each day and find 3 potential scum that way I'd rather know 3 of these 6 people are scum than risk trying for 4 townies for 2 days and getting one scum each time and know 2 of 8 people are scum but it could be any of the 8 and I need more days to narrow it down than I would with my other example

Unless people think they are way better at finding town than scum?

I guess I am now wary of people who are trying to push the 4 townies thing because the more I think about it it seems like a bad move. 4 of anything seems bad?

But someone will point out why I'm wrong, which I probably am

merk
May 20, 2003

##interact
Ok, I reread and missed your stuff on Grandi originally. Sorry about that.

Somb though...

Mr. Steak
May 9, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Hal Incandenza posted:

Agreed. It think either way we go (town/scum) going for 3 is probably more optimal than going for 4 unless there is a LOT of agreement on people's probable alignment

nah, just put me up as the 4th person

merk
May 20, 2003

##interact

Hal Incandenza posted:

So still thinking this out of course, but our goal with lunches this game is less to "find scum" and more to confirm people into one alignment or the other. Any day we don't do that is essentially a wasted day although it does give us SOME info. But at the end of the day confirming two people into any alignment for sure is better than knowing 1 of these 4 people is scum. I think it's VERY easy for scum to just convince three townies one of the scum is townie and basically sabotage trying to load 4 town onto one lunch.

Maybe I am being dumb at math, but isn't it going to be easier to try and confirm 4 scum than 9 town? Like if we spend 2 days lunching the three scummiest people each day and find 3 potential scum that way I'd rather know 3 of these 6 people are scum than risk trying for 4 townies for 2 days and getting one scum each time and know 2 of 8 people are scum but it could be any of the 8 and I need more days to narrow it down than I would with my other example

Unless people think they are way better at finding town than scum?

I guess I am now wary of people who are trying to push the 4 townies thing because the more I think about it it seems like a bad move. 4 of anything seems bad?

But someone will point out why I'm wrong, which I probably am

I agree completely. However, with Grandi already lynched, I’m down to get lynched so at least I know his alignment and we all do if he’s town.

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

I'm a little wary of some of grandis's posting today but I think on balance I lean town so I guess I am down to vote people I think are town. I doubt people will vote for me but I think I am good to ##vote merk and I'd prefer to stop at 3 people still.

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

It's funny because we have six chances to find four scum and in a regular game this size we would have... Six chances to find 4 scum.

The only difference here is were aren't getting townies "confirmed" by being NKd (presumably)

So really if we trust our mafia playing abilities we should be going for scum and keeping the pools smaller so we can confirm faster. Right? But since we don't I guess that maybe is too risky

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

Presuming scum did not know the setup and it's what we think it is, my towniest picks are merk, steak, grandi and maybe moat

Scummiest are somber, KB, ICR, maybe bif/GK

Despite what somber I think and maybe someone else said, ICR coming in and pushing for nothing but killing max people all the time is a terrible look

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

I wish SiV was in this game, she would have mathed out the most efficient thing for us to do and loved doing it

merk
May 20, 2003

##interact

Hal Incandenza posted:

Presuming scum did not know the setup and it's what we think it is, my towniest picks are merk, steak, grandi and maybe moat

Scummiest are somber, KB, ICR, maybe bif/GK

Despite what somber I think and maybe someone else said, ICR coming in and pushing for nothing but killing max people all the time is a terrible look

Where is MMT in your list?

I also think somber is scum and today adds to that with his fake Grandi read. Still think steak too. Haven’t really thought a ton more though.

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

merk posted:

Where is MMT in your list?

I also think somber is scum and today adds to that with his fake Grandi read. Still think steak too. Haven’t really thought a ton more though.

MMT has slipped into that unknown territory. Still scummy from yesterday but she did get better to me late in the day and her caution around the approach to today looks good to me. I think I'm starting to lean town who was lazy early yesterday but she's in a middle group with people like foo that would not be someone I would test in a large group early on. Kind of the way I currently feel about grandi too which is why I'd really like to limit people I'm ambivalent on going forward today.

Podima
Nov 4, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
:beerpal: Votecount for Day 4 :beerpal:

Grandicap (7): Somberbrero, Grandicap, Murmur Twin, Bifauxnen, Moatillata, SirSamVimes, King Burgundy
merk (2): merk, Hal Incandenza
Moatillata (1): Moatillata, Moatillata, Mr. Steak
Iron Chef Ramen (1): George Kansas
Somberbrero (0): Murmur Twin, Murmur Twin
Murmur Twin (0): Moatillata, Moatillata
Bifauxnen (0): Bifauxnen, Bifauxnen, Moatillata, Moatillata

Not Voting (2): Captain Foo, Iron Chef Ramen :rubshands:

With 13 people still alive, it took 7 votes to execute.
The current deadline is April 18th, 2020 at noon EDT -- that's in about 1 hour, 54 minutes.

Podima
Nov 4, 2009

by Fluffdaddy


Now that you know what you have to do, it's easier in ways you aren't really comfortable with. But the bloody work begins in earnest as one body swings in the breeze - and three more nooses are waiting for you.

:cheers: Grandicap has been executed! :cheers:

:cheers: Day 4 continues. Votes have been reset. Deadline is extended by twelve hours to 12 AM EDT, Sunday 19-APR. [~14 hours] :cheers:

:beerpal: Votecount for Day 4 :beerpal:



Not Voting (12): Bifauxnen, Captain Foo, George Kansas, Hal Incandenza, Iron Chef Ramen, King Burgundy, merk, Moatillata, Mr. Steak, Murmur Twin, SirSamVimes, Somberbrero :rubshands:

With 12 people still alive, it takes 7 votes to execute.
The current deadline is April 19th, 2020 at midnight EDT -- that's in about 14 hours.

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?
I already said why I think Grandi is town.

Steak of course we can't try to reliably lunch 3-4 town every day, but it's a drat strong start.

We will absolutely lose if we flip one person a day, that turns loop 5 into an educated series of coin flips at best.

##vote moat for town

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?

Hal Incandenza posted:

Presuming scum did not know the setup and it's what we think it is, my towniest picks are merk, steak, grandi and maybe moat

Scummiest are somber, KB, ICR, maybe bif/GK

Despite what somber I think and maybe someone else said, ICR coming in and pushing for nothing but killing max people all the time is a terrible look

Not what I said and not what ICR said either iirc

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

Somberbrero posted:

Not what I said and not what ICR said either iirc

ICR certainly only said that yesterday, then today said we should kill 4 people a day for 3 days in a row (which serves no real purpose) GK came in and basically made that same case against ICR and you responded with "nah ICR is cool" so I'm not sure what I'm getting wrong there

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?

Hal Incandenza posted:

So still thinking this out of course, but our goal with lunches this game is less to "find scum" and more to confirm people into one alignment or the other. Any day we don't do that is essentially a wasted day although it does give us SOME info. But at the end of the day confirming two people into any alignment for sure is better than knowing 1 of these 4 people is scum. I think it's VERY easy for scum to just convince three townies one of the scum is townie and basically sabotage trying to load 4 town onto one lunch.

Maybe I am being dumb at math, but isn't it going to be easier to try and confirm 4 scum than 9 town? Like if we spend 2 days lunching the three scummiest people each day and find 3 potential scum that way I'd rather know 3 of these 6 people are scum than risk trying for 4 townies for 2 days and getting one scum each time and know 2 of 8 people are scum but it could be any of the 8 and I need more days to narrow it down than I would with my other example

Unless people think they are way better at finding town than scum?

I guess I am now wary of people who are trying to push the 4 townies thing because the more I think about it it seems like a bad move. 4 of anything seems bad?

But someone will point out why I'm wrong, which I probably am

You are bad at math because there are 8 potential town and 4 potential scum, the bigger number will be the group that's easier to find 😉 once we have 4-5 confirmed town sure we can move onto hunting scums. Just think of it like an echo cop investigation.

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

Somberbrero posted:

You are bad at math because there are 8 potential town and 4 potential scum, the bigger number will be the group that's easier to find 😉 once we have 4-5 confirmed town sure we can move onto hunting scums. Just think of it like an echo cop investigation.

Yes it's easier to "find" people that are town in a group but to "confirm" them you need to have a group that is ONLY one alignment. Otherwise you confirm nothing. If you try to confirm 4 townies at once and you get one scum in the group then you still have 4 unknowns until you find the one scum. And the only way to find the one scum is to either get one scum in another group with only scum or the three town into another group with only town. And if when trying to do that you get one scum again, now you've wasted another attempt and still have no known scum.

If you test in groups of two you are much more likely to get all one alignment. If you do that twice with scum you have found all the scum. You would need to do that successfully 4 times to clear all the town.

I am not up for working out the probabilities of which of those strategies is actually most efficient and obviously the factor of hopefully we are reading people correctly and not putting random people in is a variable I can't account for, but I think the math is much closer than you are making it out to be with the "it's easier to find 8 people instead of 4"

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?

Hal Incandenza posted:

Yes it's easier to "find" people that are town in a group but to "confirm" them you need to have a group that is ONLY one alignment. Otherwise you confirm nothing. If you try to confirm 4 townies at once and you get one scum in the group then you still have 4 unknowns until you find the one scum. And the only way to find the one scum is to either get one scum in another group with only scum or the three town into another group with only town. And if when trying to do that you get one scum again, now you've wasted another attempt and still have no known scum.

If you test in groups of two you are much more likely to get all one alignment. If you do that twice with scum you have found all the scum. You would need to do that successfully 4 times to clear all the town.

I am not up for working out the probabilities of which of those strategies is actually most efficient and obviously the factor of hopefully we are reading people correctly and not putting random people in is a variable I can't account for, but I think the math is much closer than you are making it out to be with the "it's easier to find 8 people instead of 4"

If you get 1 scum in a group of four, sure that's bad, but then you know that 3 out of the remaining 8 players are scum at least. It's not a complete loss, it's just less than optimal.

You're essentially saying the game is easier to solve if you lunch scum, right? Which... yeah, that's how mafia works. However, there are more townies so we have better odds of identifying several in one go.

Again we don't have to lunch town every day folks, it just helps us pare down the list into a much more manageable number if we do it today when we have the highest concentration of unidentified town players.

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?

merk posted:

Somb and Bif thinking Grandi is town with no case for it, no analysis of the setup to justify it, and in spite of Grandi advocating we lynch town yesterday?

Also sorry but what is this? Are you talking about the ssv lunch?

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.

King Burgundy posted:

Read Shine V and tell me she isn't playing the same as she did there.

She constantly had opinions that differed from most people, and as the thread leader who knew/suspected(I don't remember) that she was town I remember having to take the lead and sway people away from her, while also trying to guide her away from bad targets. And she didn't want to listen to me at times, even though I was the leader. :) (MMT, forgive me if I am misremembering any of this, this is the impression of events that has remained in my brain)

I honestly loved this game because I felt understood even if I wasn't necessarily agreed with :glomp: I'm pretty sure it was after a game we had gotten into it pretty bad (ff7?) and it was a good palette cleanser.

Bifauxnen posted:

But what about Fate Soldiers, KB

She's well aware of her meta

While I hate arguing my own meta, you'll find in that Soldiers game that even when I was breaking my meta I was just doing it by bussing my teammates and making it look like tunneling.

Hal looked like scum to me on D1, but it was a day one case. Meanwhile Grandi looked town to me, until he started claiming Moat is confirmed while not reading the town wincon, so I changed my mind.

Somberbrero posted:

You are bad at math because there are 8 potential town and 4 potential scum, the bigger number will be the group that's easier to find 😉 once we have 4-5 confirmed town sure we can move onto hunting scums. Just think of it like an echo cop investigation.

##vote Somber

This logic is flawed enough that I find it suspicious. To illustrate it better - picture a bag with 10 white marbles and 5 black ones and you draw one blindly out of the bag each time. Your goal is to remove all of the black marbles before you pull all of the white marbles. You get to magically remove four marbles before you start.

Obviously it's better to remove 4 black ones, since that's the actual goal. Right? You're advocating for pulling out 4 white ones because "it would make it easier to find the black ones", but you're ignoring the fact that

(a) we have a limited amount of time to solve this and
(b) let's say we execute three town. do you really think the four remaining scum can't get together and swing the last vote onto a scum player?

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.

Somberbrero posted:

I already said why I think Grandi is town.

Steak of course we can't try to reliably lunch 3-4 town every day, but it's a drat strong start.

We will absolutely lose if we flip one person a day, that turns loop 5 into an educated series of coin flips at best.

##vote moat for town

What is your case for Moat as town? Is it literally "he dayvigged our tracker and that couldn't possibly be a scum role"?

merk
May 20, 2003

##interact

Somberbrero posted:

Also sorry but what is this? Are you talking about the ssv lunch?

You did not explain why Grandi is town at all. You rushed to that vote.

##vote merk

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.

merk posted:

I agree completely. However, with Grandi already lynched, I’m down to get lynched so at least I know his alignment and we all do if he’s town.

What if scum is executed after you and Grandi?

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?

Murmur Twin posted:


(a) we have a limited amount of time to solve this and
(b) let's say we execute three town. do you really think the four remaining scum can't get together and swing the last vote onto a scum player?

a) we have 5 more chances

b) you do understand that the executed town don't die, right?

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?

merk posted:

You did not explain why Grandi is town at all. You rushed to that vote.

##vote merk

I bolded the relevant part I wanted you to respond to.

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?

Somberbrero posted:

Grandi is talking through things and figuring stuff out with us as we go and it's very nice and he's my friend

Grandi has had a very organic approach to discussion today, it feels like there's real back and forth with him in a way that makes me feel like he's town. He's making hard alignment calls and actively participating.

merk
May 20, 2003

##interact

Murmur Twin posted:

What if scum is executed after you and Grandi?

Oh my plan kind of only assumes two lynches.

merk
May 20, 2003

##interact

Somberbrero posted:

Grandi has had a very organic approach to discussion today, it feels like there's real back and forth with him in a way that makes me feel like he's town. He's making hard alignment calls and actively participating.

He called Moat 100% town based solely on role. What do you think of that?

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?

merk posted:

He called Moat 100% town based solely on role. What do you think of that?

I don't think it's smart to hard confirm anyone besides sam but I get the point he's making, moat's role would potentially make it impossible for town to win if he was scum. Scum could rush a vote on loop 5 and tank our chances before we could respond.

Captain Foo
May 11, 2004

we vibin'
we slidin'
we breathin'
we dyin'

Somberbrero posted:

I don't think it's smart to hard confirm anyone besides sam but I get the point he's making, moat's role would potentially make it impossible for town to win if he was scum. Scum could rush a vote on loop 5 and tank our chances before we could respond.

i'm trying to catch up but again this assumes there's no conditions on the power

Captain Foo
May 11, 2004

we vibin'
we slidin'
we breathin'
we dyin'

here's the scummiest person so far in this game: ##vote ICR

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?

Captain Foo posted:

i'm trying to catch up but again this assumes there's no conditions on the power

Moat claimed the conditions d1 and sure there could be more to it, which is why I'm not saying he's 100% clear.

Captain Foo posted:

here's the scummiest person so far in this game: ##vote ICR

Okay I'm fine with this because I think Icr is town but remember that Grandi is already on the gallows today

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply