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All of that is assuming that ICR is scum and Pod isn't just loving with us.
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Apr 24, 2020 15:10
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Hal Incandenza posted:Wait, sorry, are you saying that you actually PURPOSELY targeted yourself and you knew you never cleared ICR? No, I did not purposely self target, knew meaning that she saw me target myself and let us know. Not knew what I knew.
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Apr 24, 2020 15:11
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Grandicap posted:Ok, in my mind I'm just going to make up some odds of different scumteams to make me feel better about myself when I make the wrong decision later. just my curiosity, and like.... idk, fun...? could you pretend you got a PM from the mod just now confirming me and mmt as town? and where would you distribute that 33% among the rest?
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Apr 24, 2020 15:11
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Mr. Steak posted:just my curiosity, and like.... idk, fun...? could you pretend you got a PM from the mod just now confirming me and mmt as town? and where would you distribute that 33% among the rest? Grandicap posted:Ok, in my mind I'm just going to make up some odds of different scumteams to make me feel better about myself when I make the wrong decision later.
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Apr 24, 2020 15:13
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Mr. Steak posted:hal, my man...... Lol that is awkwardly phrased in the worst way possible but the we referred to the "we" at the start of the sentence and not to the scum
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Apr 24, 2020 15:20
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Grandicap posted:No, I did not purposely self target, knew meaning that she saw me target myself and let us know. Not knew what I knew. ah ok that makes infinitely more sense
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Apr 24, 2020 15:21
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I keep thinking about Hal not hammering merk. Trying to get into Hal's head, from a town perspective it's boring it's just whoops I was playing a game and forgot to do the thing I wanted, which seems unlikely for somebody who was around and active at the time but whatever, but from a scum perspective I think it's actually a harder decision than I originally was thinking. At first, I was like, oh, hammering merk seems like the obviously correct thing to do as scum. There was a lot of scum on the merk vote but presumably there was town too, you would have a chance of blending in while getting a much more ambiguous result that would be worse for town. The only counter to that was that hammering would look scummy, but I didn't think that was sufficient to explain it because I think Hal could've gotten away with it tbh, and it would give enough cover to his scumbuds that it would probably be worth it. But now I'm also thinking about how if you had hammered merk and gotten the 1 scum result, it could've given a lot of cred to people like bif and myself who were holding the line and making sure that didn't happen, and I can see someone wanting to avoid that and making a calculating decision to do so and also, this is a less important point but i can also see hal genuinely losing track of time from either alignment. scum hal could still have been playing csgo or whatever and just forget to hammer. i guess i'm just wary of using the lack of a hammer to clear hal, it made me feel a lot more townie about him at the time but now that in my mind it's either him and foo or MMT and steak, I lean him and foo.
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Apr 24, 2020 15:30
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Hal Incandenza posted:Really if you want to test me you should put me alone (or with just merk at this point) and then if it comes back 2 scum great you just have ICR and Steak to choose between Would a scum Hal have advocated to put himself up alone with merk? This is when people were pretty hard on Hal being scum, so it wasn't out of the realm of possibility. It could have been a big brain scheme, knowing town wouldn't take him up on it, and he could point to it later as how he is likely town, which he has done. But would scum Hal have taken that risk? Especially, in this scenario, at the point of this post, people were 100% on it being foo and merk, and only up in the air about steak and ICR. I feel like this is a big point in Hal's favor. Which leans me back towards Steak and Murmur. What I really have for Murmur is d2 behavior. I feel like the d2 stuff is really, really bad for murmur. But since then, it's easy to put the stuff she has done in a townie light. gently caress. Steak is playing well, it's just that he's playing exactly as I'd suspect a scum against the wall to play, or a town against the wall. Double gently caress. Am I back to steak and murmur? I am running myself in circles here.
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Apr 24, 2020 15:39
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I think it's interesting that Hal chose to focus on defending himself rather than scumhunt from the other candidates. Yeah, he made a kb case, but he put a lot more effort into his defense. Also, I can't imagine a scenario on which we put up kb today and it's clear much of the thread feels the same. Feels like Hal is more focused on survival than winning.
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Apr 24, 2020 15:51
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I think avoiding the Merk hammer isn't necessarily a huge point in anyone's favor. I think there are only like two people in this thread that would have been confused by the result. I definitely wanted to do it, because in my mind, it would have gotten us our first scum confirmation, in Merk. This format definitely favors, I think, more cuddles than less. I only held back because I thought helping MMT reset was a better result then knowing for sure Merk was scum. And she said she wasn't sure if it would be Merk or Somber if it came back 1 scum. So yeah, doesn't mean much for me if we are talking about Hal "forgetting" to hammer, or we are talking about someone like GK pushing for Bif. As a reminder, it is entirely possible scum knew a four town cuddle would be bad for us in some significant way that would make the clears ok.
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Apr 24, 2020 16:26
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Somberbrero posted:I think it's interesting that Hal chose to focus on defending himself rather than scumhunt from the other candidates. Yeah, he made a kb case, but he put a lot more effort into his defense. Also, I can't imagine a scenario on which we put up kb today and it's clear much of the thread feels the same. I have a busy morning so I have to put in effort when I can, and the first thing I saw is that pretty much everyone was saying "welp, it's probably Hal" so it seemed more prudent to try and get you to at least look at other options by showing I wasn't scum. Also that last line is a complete throwaway, regardless of my alignment my survival is key to my faction winning. Scum are going to be found in the people muddying the results up. Scum can make great cases against each other all day long without almost any of the normal bussing worries of losing a teammate. I am just doing a different type of scumhunting than what you expect and that is why you are getting on me. Think about it. Scum can very easily hide behind pushing multiple other scum each day just so long as they aren't getting up all of one alignment (and apparently all town would have been good for them too). So scum just want to make sure results are ambiguous. Take yesterday for example. Myself and others seemed to think merk/foo/mmt/steak was a good one to put up and test if we were going to test 4 and use MMT. Instead we ended up using merk/foo/icr/mmt. Now, fmpov with mmt busting the ICR investigation it was most likely that ICR and MMT were on different teams so it made the most sense to swap them out because we would most likely come up with 2 or 4 scum in that situation, as opposed to mmt and steak or foo who were much more likely to be on the same team (either scum or town) as MMT and therefore most likely to come back with the dreaded "3 scum" result. Scumhunting by peoples intentions in this game is just as valid as scumhunting by posting, sorry if you can't see it that way
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Apr 24, 2020 16:27
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Grandicap posted:Would a scum Hal have advocated to put himself up alone with merk? This is when people were pretty hard on Hal being scum, so it wasn't out of the realm of possibility. i agree with all of your hal analysis here. i'm very much not fully convinced he's scum. and this recent posting is making it even harder to justify a scum read on him. but it does annoy me that your only other option then is me/mmt. cuz for me i'm oscillating between hal and gk, and they honestly have equal chance of being correct. if hal's actually scum, then thats not an issue because lots of people are down for that vote already, but im nervous because im starting to think more and more that it's actually gk, and in that case it'll be really loving hard to get those votes. im so tired of having to defend myself. i just want to focus on who's the last scum, not convincing town of my innocence
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Apr 24, 2020 16:32
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Grandicap posted:Would a scum Hal have advocated to put himself up alone with merk? This is when people were pretty hard on Hal being scum, so it wasn't out of the realm of possibility. Sure. Why not? This is similar to in a game with a day cop when the scum when asked are forced to say "Cop me!". Play it out, it was unlikely it was the chosen cuddle. But even if it WAS, you are still left with the other bits of ambiguity going into the day. If Hal is scum and we cuddle Hal/Merk yesterday, we still don't know for 100% certain who the other 2 scum are. We all have our theories, but there is still wiggle room. I'm still liking Hal's posting at the moment(outside the potential slip). But it is definitely possible.
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Apr 24, 2020 16:34
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I still so much want to believe this and the followups are a scum interactionmerk posted:Are you hockletock? George Kansas posted:i'm BottleKnight Not quoting them all now, but it allowed for some fun interactions later in the day without having to treat any of them seriously. From looking at Merk's posting, it appears these are the only interactions with or about GK the entire game.
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Apr 24, 2020 16:54
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Gonna have to do this reread in pieces since I've got work/meetings all day, and Numenera tonight. George Kansas posted:i thought about it while at work and actually i think moat is pulling a "so stupid they couldn't possibly think i'm scum" action George Kansas posted:i'll revisit this thought after a flip but i think there's really very little logic for even reckless town to do this Definitely a point in favor of the scum GK here. But standing alone, it doesn't mean much yet.
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Apr 24, 2020 17:01
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King Burgundy posted:Gonna have to do this reread in pieces since I've got work/meetings all day, and Numenera tonight. im not seeing how these posts make him sound scummy
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Apr 24, 2020 18:05
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More on moat:George Kansas posted:
But adhering to logic here, in his favor: George Kansas posted:what why Interesting blend here: George Kansas posted:I'm leaning town on merk and will not vote him. So the Merk defense is interesting. If the scum know about what this game is going to be, could be trying to sell Merk as town in the hopes he makes it through the chaos even if no one else does. While still giving us a bus on ICR for cred later. But I can also see this as pretty decent scum strat in general even without foreknowledge. Hmmm. --- Changed my mind after this last part, including because I don't want to waste my work. Posting this in it's own post so it doesn't muddle my message.
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Apr 24, 2020 18:15
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So yeah, to help inform my view on GK, went back and looked at Merk again. What were the other scum doing. From my point of view, Merk votes for zero scum on D1. I've pointed this out previously, but this is actually a significant chain of posts:merk posted:Steak's entire content today is a joke/serious 'first post' analysis and then a promise to do more without doing more. ##vote Steak Initially Merk's wants to no cuddle, but once prompted into potentially not doing that by Bif, this is his initial stab at a second candidate and he places the vote down. I don't think Merk puts up a scum in this spot. Then: merk posted:ICR has no content today but made sure to chime in weirdly on Steak and then again after a claim was made. Potentially awkward scum not knowing how to interact with the thread. Very light bus here, but no vote, still focused on Steak. merk posted:This is an odd callout. Do you think Bif is scum? The above post is the start of a bit of back and forth with Foo, but it is a bit time shifted since Foo is responding to an earlier post. I recommend just clicking on the link for that one and reading it in context. This chain definitely throws the same level of light bussing shade Foo's way as his ICR post above. merk posted:Hal was voting KB here but noting that he thinks SSV is scummy? And here is some similar light shade on Hal. --- Looking at this chain, it really feels like when prompted for a second cuddle, Merk thought about how he'd spent the day so far and realized he hadn't interacted with/bussed his teammates yet. So he puts an initial read/vote down on town to start things off. But then does a series of light touches on his other scum buds to make sure he's done his due diligence. After this, he returns to no cuddle or Somber for the rest of the day. For the record, I think this proves scum didn't know about how this game would go. Otherwise his alternative to night cuddle would NOT be to put up a second town. Anyway, from this alone, I'm now leaning back towards Hal as the scum, but there is one other piece I want to go find.
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Apr 24, 2020 18:19
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Follow up on that last post, he also flirts briefly with voting MMT. So point still stands, voting only people I think are town, or no cuddle. --- Anyway, following day, he misses most of the action. Grandi has already been voted out when he comes into the thread. Now he seems desperate to get a scum cuddled. He rotates between putting himself up or putting Hal up for almost the entire day and trying to prevent any more town from going up: merk posted:I also think a Moat vote is bad now. If Grandi is scum, he clearly wants you to vote Moat, no? What happens in a Grandi/Moat where just one is scum? merk posted:Rushing into a Grandi vote where half of the voters thinks he's town and half think he's scum was pretty dumb. merk posted:Well. ##vote merk makes sense to me right this second. --- There is some interaction with Hal here where Hal seems to be going for the same result, for example: Hal Incandenza posted:I'm a little wary of some of grandis's posting today but I think on balance I lean town so I guess I am down to vote people I think are town. I doubt people will vote for me but I think I am good to ##vote merk and I'd prefer to stop at 3 people still. So Hal and Merk coming at this from slightly different angles, but the goal is the same. Merk is town, so let's put him up next. Hal Incandenza posted:Presuming scum did not know the setup and it's what we think it is, my towniest picks are merk, steak, grandi and maybe moat A probable 1 scum cuddle. --- Time elapses, Merk cuddle isn't happening, Merk tries a different tack: merk posted:##vote Hal He then rotates back and forth between himself and Hal for most of the rest of the day. He briefly seems to give up, and votes Bif, but ends up back on himself. --- I think Hal is playing a really good scum game. I was feeling really town on him from his tone/content over the last few days, but examining the interactions with the known scum, I think it must be Hal.
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Apr 24, 2020 18:39
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Somberbrero posted:I think it's interesting that Hal chose to focus on defending himself rather than scumhunt from the other candidates. Yeah, he made a kb case, but he put a lot more effort into his defense. Also, I can't imagine a scenario on which we put up kb today and it's clear much of the thread feels the same. Yeah I'm just getting mad Fate Soldiers feels here where Hal should absolutely be the lunch and we're about to talk ourselves out of it for no good reason.
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Apr 24, 2020 18:39
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So yeah, I think we should vote Foo, and Hal, to end this day and win the game.
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Apr 24, 2020 18:42
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Mr. Steak posted:but it does annoy me that your only other option then is me/mmt. cuz for me i'm oscillating between hal and gk, Steak, can you just hit the question mark on GK? I think that'll help. Especially when you get to the Townie Lunch Day and he immediately gets down to business with no hedging just casting a vote on me, and continues to actively fight for that result while others are still trying to argue for merk even if they're holding back from making that move themselves.
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Apr 24, 2020 18:43
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I think I'm ready to either win or lose. ##vote Foo
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Apr 24, 2020 18:48
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Bifauxnen posted:Steak, can you just hit the question mark on GK? I think that'll help. Especially when you get to the Townie Lunch Day and he immediately gets down to business with no hedging just casting a vote on me, and continues to actively fight for that result while others are still trying to argue for merk even if they're holding back from making that move themselves. Yeah, I started to go down that road and I could see hints of possible scum, but it didn't hold together. Like I was thinking when he was doing towny focused things it may have just been for cred, but looking at the full picture and what the other scum were doing, I think not. Like the most solid piece of evidence we have right now is Merk as scum. Everything has to be driving from that. I don't think I'm going to be swayed from my current position having relooked at things.
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Apr 24, 2020 18:49
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Just caught up now with the last KB effortposts and I'm feeling pretty good about wrapping things up now too. ##vote Foo Don't rush it if some of y'all are still nervous, though.
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Apr 24, 2020 18:49
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If it's MT after all though I'm gonna wear my wilted rose pin for a week lmao
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Apr 24, 2020 18:50
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Don't you love farce? ##vote foo
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Apr 24, 2020 18:51
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##vote Foo
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Apr 24, 2020 18:52
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Apr 24, 2020 18:53
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Apr 24, 2020 18:53
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Oh man
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Apr 24, 2020 18:54
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 Votecount for Day 4  Captain Foo (6): Murmur Twin, Mr. Steak, Moatillata,  Mr. Steak (1): Captain Foo Not Voting (4): George Kansas, Hal Incandenza, Moatillata, SirSamVimes  With 11 people still alive, it took 6 votes to execute. The current deadline is April 25th, 2020 at noon EDT -- that's in about 21 hours, 52 minutes.
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Apr 24, 2020 19:08
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 As you lead the third victim to their noose, the shadows around you lengthen from all directions - leaning in to see what may come of your choice. The noose tightens, wreathed in fire, and they are silenced... but not dead yet, like the others. Three souls await their judgment. Who will be the final one on offer? Though the air is still and heavy, you hear the familiar creaking of something heavy swinging to and fro... drawing closer and closer with each arc.   Captain Foo, aka Richie Talley, has been executed! Day 4 continues. Votes have been reset. Deadline is extended by eight hours to 8 PM EDT, Saturday 25-APR. [~29 hours] Votecount for Day 4 Not Voting (10): Bifauxnen, George Kansas, Grandicap, Hal Incandenza, King Burgundy, Moatillata, Mr. Steak, Murmur Twin, SirSamVimes, Somberbrero With 10 people still alive, it takes 6 votes to execute. The current deadline is April 25th, 2020 at 8 p.m. EDT -- that's in about 1 day, 5 hours.
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Apr 24, 2020 19:26
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Every time it takes Pod more than like 30 seconds to post the flip my heart skips a beat.
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Apr 24, 2020 19:27
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Ok, so murmur and steak are now cleared. It is just BK or Hal. An it looks like we're going Hal. I feel as good as is possible in this scenario.
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Apr 24, 2020 19:28
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Grandicap posted:Ok, so murmur and steak are now cleared. Yeah, I think the right move here is Hal. But there is no rush here on this final vote. If people have more to say or want to look through posts and case, maybe there is something we are missing.
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Apr 24, 2020 19:32
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Grandicap posted:Ok, so murmur and steak are now cleared. I don't buy into the "Pod would end the game immediately" theory at all btw, but Foo just doing a little sad face instead of blowing up about how stupid we are is a drat good sign imo ##vote Hal
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Apr 24, 2020 19:33
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Bifauxnen posted:I don't buy into the "Pod would end the game immediately" theory at all btw, but Foo just doing a little sad face instead of blowing up about how stupid we are is a drat good sign imo Nah, but steak and murmur gloating now that we were sunk would be a thing.
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Apr 24, 2020 19:34
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Guess let's just find out then ##vote hal
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Apr 24, 2020 19:46
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##vote Hal
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Apr 24, 2020 19:48
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