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ReindeerF
Apr 20, 2002

Rubber Dinghy Rapids Bro
I see The Failing New York Times has stumbled upon the thing I've been pointing out politely, sporadically for about a month:

https://news.yahoo.com/covid-19-riddle-why-does-115959394.html

quote:

The coronavirus has killed so many people in Iran that the country has resorted to mass burials, but in neighboring Iraq, the body count is fewer than 100.

The Dominican Republic has reported nearly 7,600 cases of the virus. Just across the border, Haiti has recorded about 85.

In Indonesia, thousands are believed to have died of the coronavirus. In nearby Malaysia, a strict lockdown has kept fatalities to about 100.

The coronavirus has touched almost every country on earth, but its impact has seemed capricious. Global metropolises like New York, Paris and London have been devastated, while teeming cities like Bangkok, Baghdad, New Delhi and Lagos have, so far, largely been spared.

The question of why the virus has overwhelmed some places and left others relatively untouched is a puzzle that has spawned numerous theories and speculations but no definitive answers. That knowledge could have profound implications for how countries respond to the virus, for determining who is at risk and for knowing when it’s safe to go out again.

There are already hundreds of studies underway around the world looking into how demographics, preexisting conditions and genetics might affect the wide variation in impact.

...

“We are really early in this disease,” said Dr. Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Research Institute. “If this were a baseball game, it would be the second inning, and there’s no reason to think that by the ninth inning the rest of the world that looks now like it hasn’t been affected won’t become like other places.”

Doctors who study infectious diseases around the world say they do not have enough data yet to get a full epidemiological picture, and that gaps in information in many countries make it dangerous to draw conclusions. Testing is woeful in many places, leading to vast underestimates of the virus’s progress, and deaths are almost certainly undercounted.

Still, the broad patterns are clear. Even in places with abysmal record-keeping and broken health systems, mass burials or hospitals turning away sick people by the thousands would be hard to miss, and a number of places are just not seeing them — at least not yet.
There's a definite lack of consistency, but, accordingly there's no clear reason why, so there's no lesson to learn or response to enact, yet, based on it. They'll figure it out eventually, but as I said weeks ago, the real issue here on the political side is a lot of stupid governments are going to get lucky, take credit and emerge even more powerful if their luck holds out. If that's true, the knock on effects for things like climate change are going to be disastrous, because those governments going to point to all the eager projections of bad things that, for whatever reason, just didn't befall their countries and say, "See? They said the coronavirus would kill us, but what happened? These scientists can't predict the future. Only God can." etc etc.

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Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006
My company just announced we are all working from home until 2021.

This is surreal.

pacerhimself
Dec 30, 2008

by Fluffdaddy

Pillowpants posted:

My company just announced we are all working from home until 2021.

This is surreal.

I feel like this is overall very good news for you and your health. Surreal, but definitely a good thing - congrats on working for a sensible company that can support this.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

Ice Phisherman posted:

Then a lot of boomers will die.

Pain is a teacher and it will absolutely whoop their rear end for stupidity. I feel bad that first time a child touches a hot stove because they don't know any better. If they're no longer a child and repeatedly touch that hot stove, then I say let them until they figure out some painful lessons.

Who I actually feel bad for are the staff. The boomers that go on the cruise can reap what they loving sow.

yeah it's really tragic because staff are going to be forced onto these plague ships by poverty

my "lol" was not about people dying, it was about anyone entertaining the idea that the most pampered self-involved generation in human history wouldn't pile into plague ships to drink martinis and abuse servants if given the opportunity regardless of the risks to themselves and others

Boomers don't even believe the virus is real, because if it were real it would inconvenience them, and their worldview revolves around the belief that existence exists to cater to their convenience

FreelanceSocialist
Nov 19, 2002
"Middle-class-attainable hedonism" is going to be my go-to description whenever someone asks what cruises are like. I take one every few years. But not on Carnival.

Seven Hundred Bee
Nov 1, 2006

theres no evidence that any large number of people - despite how loud they are on facebook - are willing to actually start using these businesses again once restrictions lift. in fact, Georgia has shown us the opposite: businesses that went all in on reopening are extra-hosed because... nobody showed up. no cruse is going to be running with 35% capacity, and that 35% is generous. the only reason flights are still running at all is because domestic airlines move cargo and the government has mandated that they continue to fly at their extremely reduced rate (about 5% of regular capacity). airlines are projecting that their monthly totals will be less than 1 day in normal times.

Seven Hundred Bee fucked around with this message at 16:43 on May 4, 2020

SpaceDrake
Dec 22, 2006

I can't avoid filling a game with awful memes, even if I want to. It's in my bones...!
Just fyi, 3,000 deaths a day on average would be 90,000 deaths in a month for June. If that average number holds for a year, that would result in a million fatalities.

Put another way: 3,000 fatalities a day is the approximate rate of death per day suffered by the Soviet defenders of Stalingrad over the course of the siege from August '42 to Feb. '43.

That's where we are.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



SpaceDrake posted:

Just fyi, 3,000 deaths a day on average would be 90,000 deaths in a month for June. If that average number holds for a year, that would result in a million fatalities.

Put another way: 3,000 fatalities a day is the approximate rate of death per day suffered by the Soviet defenders of Stalingrad over the course of the siege from August '42 to Feb. '43.

That's where we are.
There’s no way that can hold for a year, but yes I think the death estimates are going to be way off since we are just reopening everything without testing, which effectively undoes the 6-7 weeks of shutdowns

Krispy Wafer
Jul 26, 2002

I shouted out "Free the exposed 67"
But they stood on my hair and told me I was fat

Grimey Drawer
Cruise people will step over the bodies of their fellow passengers if there's a buffet or drink deal involved. Corona has murdered the casual cruise market but holy loving poo poo Cruisers will be all over it.

With Carnival, if you own a certain number of shares in the company you're automatically given certain passenger benefits. It actually makes financial sense if you go on more than 2 or 3 cruises a year. People who are into cruises are REALLY into cruises.

I couldn't read it because of a paywall, but a headline from the WSJ just came through questioning how Florida has avoided the worst of the pandemic. Has it? I don't hear a whole lot about hospitals there being overwhelmed and that's exactly what you'd expect to hear from a state full of old Boomers.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

Seven Hundred Bee posted:

theres no evidence that any large number of people - despite how loud they are on facebook - are willing to actually start using these businesses again once restrictions lift. in fact, Georgia has shown us the opposite: businesses that went all in on reopening are extra-hosed because... nobody showed up. no cruse is going to be running with 35% capacity, and that 35% is generous. the only reason flights are still running at all is because domestic airlines move cargo and the government has mandated that they continue to fly at their extremely reduced rate (about 5% of regular capacity). airlines are projecting that their monthly totals will be less than 1 day in normal times.

yeah but did those failing Georgia businesses get 100% of their business from Boomers before coronavirus

35% of people showing up to die to get their bangs highlighted and their buttholes waxed is still completely insane, and those 35% of people doing that are 100% the kind of people who go on cruises

VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 16:50 on May 4, 2020

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006

pacerhimself posted:

I feel like this is overall very good news for you and your health. Surreal, but definitely a good thing - congrats on working for a sensible company that can support this.

Oh I agree. I’m happy about it, it’s just so surreal. We are a BIG company too.

Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 10, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.
Well 3,000 deaths a day wouldn’t hold out for a full year because that sheer attrition would force people back inside before long especially since its likely to be focused in previously lightly hit areas. But I can absolutely believe that the month of June alone could average out to be 90k dead.

Seven Hundred Bee
Nov 1, 2006

Krispy Wafer posted:

Cruise people will step over the bodies of their fellow passengers if there's a buffet or drink deal involved. Corona has murdered the casual cruise market but holy loving poo poo Cruisers will be all over it.

With Carnival, if you own a certain number of shares in the company you're automatically given certain passenger benefits. It actually makes financial sense if you go on more than 2 or 3 cruises a year. People who are into cruises are REALLY into cruises.

I couldn't read it because of a paywall, but a headline from the WSJ just came through questioning how Florida has avoided the worst of the pandemic. Has it? I don't hear a whole lot about hospitals there being overwhelmed and that's exactly what you'd expect to hear from a state full of old Boomers.

Florida has 35,000+ cases and over 1,300 deaths that they're acknowledging (for now), so no they have not avoided the worst. One of the features of corona is it can take several weeks for someone who is sick to die.

Tiny Timbs
Sep 6, 2008

Krispy Wafer posted:

I couldn't read it because of a paywall, but a headline from the WSJ just came through questioning how Florida has avoided the worst of the pandemic. Has it? I don't hear a whole lot about hospitals there being overwhelmed and that's exactly what you'd expect to hear from a state full of old Boomers.

There have not been megadeaths with retirees keeling over in the streets and completely collapsed healthcare systems. That scenario is endlessly just around the corner, I guess.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

Seven Hundred Bee posted:

Florida has 35,000+ cases and over 1,300 deaths that they're acknowledging (for now), so no they have not avoided the worst. One of the features of corona is it can take several weeks for someone who is sick to die.

They are also trying hard not to acknowledge deaths unless absolutely unavoidable, so it's almost certainly much worse than they're letting on.

But on the other hand, they also got a disproportionate share of federal resources because they're a right-leaning swing state, so who knows.

Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity

Krispy Wafer posted:

Cruise people will step over the bodies of their fellow passengers if there's a buffet or drink deal involved. Corona has murdered the casual cruise market but holy loving poo poo Cruisers will be all over it.

With Carnival, if you own a certain number of shares in the company you're automatically given certain passenger benefits. It actually makes financial sense if you go on more than 2 or 3 cruises a year. People who are into cruises are REALLY into cruises.

I couldn't read it because of a paywall, but a headline from the WSJ just came through questioning how Florida has avoided the worst of the pandemic. Has it? I don't hear a whole lot about hospitals there being overwhelmed and that's exactly what you'd expect to hear from a state full of old Boomers.

The official reports out of Florida are quite sketchy, but even so everybody expected it to be worse than New York and its nowhere near as bad (Obviously, it is still bad). I suspect its the lack of mass transit - but that obviously is wild speculation.

JBP
Feb 16, 2017

You've got to know, to understand,
Baby, take me by my hand,
I'll lead you to the promised land.

Ika posted:

The official reports out of Florida are quite sketchy, but even so everybody expected it to be worse than New York and its nowhere near as bad (Obviously, it is still bad). I suspect its the lack of mass transit - but that obviously is wild speculation.

Time for the glorious rebirth of the American auto industry.

Ringo Star Get
Sep 18, 2006

JUST FUCKING TAKE OFF ALREADY, SHIT

Pillowpants posted:

My company just announced we are all working from home until 2021.

This is surreal.

I am jealous, in a way. We are still currently working from home during the shelter order, but our boss just put out an email singing the praises of a laid-off employee, on unemployment (possibly), going to two of our closed locations to "clean" and "check in on things". Called him a "company man" and was super passive-aggressive to all of us in the email, despite a majority of us directly explaining why we can't risk going out and getting sick.

Our boss has been itching for us to re-open, and has been salty about IL extending the shelter until end of May. He, along with some older (and still paid) employees are still coming into the office building which is used by many other companies. He thinks that the virus will be "gone" when the date comes, because you know viruses follow deadlines.

He almost sent me out to Michigan to do in-person training with a few remaining on-payroll employees and it took way too long to convince that we can use Zoom to do it from a distance.

We are about to have an online meeting and the "heads up" notes are about having us go out to locations to follow the example of the above-mentioned laid-off employee. Our company morale is already low enough, and a few weeks ago our pay got cut 20%, so we are ready to tell him to go pound sand.

Dick Trauma
Nov 30, 2007

God damn it, you've got to be kind.
https://twitter.com/Tylerjoelb/status/1257330698110873601

SpaceDrake
Dec 22, 2006

I can't avoid filling a game with awful memes, even if I want to. It's in my bones...!

Fallom posted:

There have not been megadeaths with retirees keeling over in the streets and completely collapsed healthcare systems. That scenario is endlessly just around the corner, I guess.

If 200k new cases a day turns out to be true, we're gonna be a shitload closer to total collapse, I can tell you that.

Although tbh I don't see how we hit that many new cases a day while still only keeping to 3k deaths a day. If we're at 200,000 new cases every day (sustained for a month that's six million goddamn cases of corona), I don't see how that doesn't eventually translate into a comparative fatality rate to what we have right now... which would be somewhere well north of 10,000 fatalities per day. That would absolutely overwhelm all medical systems.

eke out
Feb 24, 2013



Re: that leaked CDC stuff the NYT got

- going from ~2000 to 3000 deaths a day is a near-certainty, it's really a low estimate if anything
- going from ~25,000 new cases a day to ~200,000 is an insane massive increase, three doublings in four weeks

i think the latter is the real story, not the former

Tiny Timbs
Sep 6, 2008

I give it good odds that this internal report is a literal misinformation campaign against Trump aimed at getting him to do something, anything to help a la Secretary Mattis sneaking into his office and removing papers from his desk

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



FreelanceSocialist posted:

"Middle-class-attainable hedonism" is going to be my go-to description whenever someone asks what cruises are like. I take one every few years. But not on Carnival.

The middle class is so loving boring that this is what they think hedonism should be. I'm not pro-hedonism, more like it astonishes me just how dull and unimaginative the middle class is. I remember doing deep dives on the lives of the people who run the democratic party and their donors and what astonished me over and over is just how loving boring they are. They're in charge of things and they don't even do anything interesting with their money, power and prestige. And at the deep end you get pedophile eyes wide shut pedophile sex cults, and they're distressingly more common than you think, but there are so few individualists out there and it's so loving demoralizing that my enemies are mostly dullards.

My kingdom for some Bond villains.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Ika posted:

The official reports out of Florida are quite sketchy, but even so everybody expected it to be worse than New York and its nowhere near as bad (Obviously, it is still bad). I suspect its the lack of mass transit - but that obviously is wild speculation.
As a Florida goon I can say that we somehow managed to dodge the worst, but that may change soon. The main thing is that we never had the significant surge at the hospitals.

At least it seems like South Florida (where the bulk of the cases are) is reopening more slowly

qhat
Jul 6, 2015


As someone who grew up and worked in London for many years, taking the tube everyday, I would place mass transit as an extremely strong factor in the spread of this disease. I remember one winter I was ill constantly between October and early December, the central line in the mornings and evenings is an absolutely paradise for these kinds of respiratory pathogens. I also remember that I started wearing gloves and making efforts to not touch anything and I started getting ill significantly less frequently. Now I'm in Vancouver and I drive to work and I hardly ever get ill unless someone else who is ill comes to work and coughs all over the place. So yeah, transit is super bad for this.

FreelanceSocialist
Nov 19, 2002

Ice Phisherman posted:

The middle class is so loving boring that this is what they think hedonism should be. I'm not pro-hedonism, more like it astonishes me just how dull and unimaginative the middle class is. I remember doing deep dives on the lives of the people who run the democratic party and their donors and what astonished me over and over is just how loving boring they are. They're in charge of things and they don't even do anything interesting with their money, power and prestige. And at the deep end you get pedophile eyes wide shut pedophile sex cults, and they're distressingly more common than you think, but there are so few individualists out there and it's so loving demoralizing that my enemies are mostly dullards.

My kingdom for some Bond villains.

The middle class doesn't have the resources to do anything very exciting, that's why.

VH4Ever
Oct 1, 2005

by sebmojo

qhat posted:

As someone who grew up and worked in London for many years, taking the tube everyday, I would place mass transit as an extremely strong factor in the spread of this disease. I remember one winter I was ill constantly between October and early December, the central line in the mornings and evenings is an absolutely paradise for these kinds of respiratory pathogens. I also remember that I started wearing gloves and making efforts to not touch anything and I started getting ill significantly less frequently. Now I'm in Vancouver and I drive to work and I hardly ever get ill unless someone else who is ill comes to work and coughs all over the place. So yeah, transit is super bad for this.

And again, I have to think airports and especially airplanes have to be huge vectors too. I can't see myself wanting to get on a plane for the rest of this calendar year at least.

Ice Phisherman posted:

The middle class is so loving boring that this is what they think hedonism should be. I'm not pro-hedonism, more like it astonishes me just how dull and unimaginative the middle class is. I remember doing deep dives on the lives of the people who run the democratic party and their donors and what astonished me over and over is just how loving boring they are. They're in charge of things and they don't even do anything interesting with their money, power and prestige. And at the deep end you get pedophile eyes wide shut pedophile sex cults, and they're distressingly more common than you think, but there are so few individualists out there and it's so loving demoralizing that my enemies are mostly dullards.

My kingdom for some Bond villains.

"Why can't more people be more creatively evil and pedophilic?" - A totally normal person

VH4Ever fucked around with this message at 17:12 on May 4, 2020

Astro7x
Aug 4, 2004
Thinks It's All Real

saintonan posted:

At what point do you ever think he would ever say he hosed up the response?

Oh god, never. When it comes back next year under Biden, he is going to claim that Biden is handling it worse than he was, and there will be straight up lies attributing the worldwide deaths to Biden.

cant cook creole bream
Aug 15, 2011
I think Fahrenheit is better for weather

Okay, that is the dumbest mask take I have seen yet.

Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 10, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.
Didn’t it come out a few days ago that FEMA ordered another 100k body bags?

eke out
Feb 24, 2013



FlamingLiberal posted:

As a Florida goon I can say that we somehow managed to dodge the worst, but that may change soon. The main thing is that we never had the significant surge at the hospitals.

At least it seems like South Florida (where the bulk of the cases are) is reopening more slowly

we managed to dodge the worst because social distancing worked! the problem is that we're going to effectively end it while we're only on a plateau

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

In 2018 I filed taxes. I guess something I did was incorrect. I was going to fix it when I filed taxes this year but then my accountant quarantined. I won't get a stimulus check. There's nobody to talk to about it.

It's amazing that the IRS still operates through "send a letter" communication in 2020.

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



FreelanceSocialist posted:

The middle class doesn't have the resources to do anything very exciting, that's why.

The middle class absolutely has the resources to do exciting poo poo. Their lack of imagination, overwork and wallowing in shallow materialism prevents them from doing so. It is a boring, predictable state of mind. A lack of freedom not of law or of bondage, but of the mind.

I do support work for certain people and most of them are poor and they have the best/worst stories. Which is a fancy way of saying I help them with a little money and do emotional labor. Boring but necessary work. But they're all exciting and interesting. Not all the time, no one can be, but they're tasted life at its sweetest and bitterest. And all they require is solidarity, a car and gas money to do exciting poo poo.

Ice Phisherman fucked around with this message at 17:18 on May 4, 2020

brugroffil
Nov 30, 2015
Probation
Can't post for 59 minutes!

pacerhimself posted:

THE SOLUTION CAN'T BE WORSE THAN THE CURE.

Deficit spending and job losses are worse than dying, fyi.

"economy vs not-dying" isn't even a real choice since we won't get a functional economy with mass deaths, lol





We saw this becoming a culture war issue like everything else, but the dumb ways that's manifesting are still taking me be surprise.
https://twitter.com/Tylerjoelb/status/1257330698110873601

Astro7x
Aug 4, 2004
Thinks It's All Real

ReindeerF posted:

I see The Failing New York Times has stumbled upon the thing I've been pointing out politely, sporadically for about a month:

https://news.yahoo.com/covid-19-riddle-why-does-115959394.html
There's a definite lack of consistency, but, accordingly there's no clear reason why, so there's no lesson to learn or response to enact, yet, based on it. They'll figure it out eventually, but as I said weeks ago, the real issue here on the political side is a lot of stupid governments are going to get lucky, take credit and emerge even more powerful if their luck holds out. If that's true, the knock on effects for things like climate change are going to be disastrous, because those governments going to point to all the eager projections of bad things that, for whatever reason, just didn't befall their countries and say, "See? They said the coronavirus would kill us, but what happened? These scientists can't predict the future. Only God can." etc etc.

I mean... places I'd least want to travel, ever, probably have the lowest infection rates I'd guess.

Taerkar
Dec 7, 2002

kind of into it, really

kiimo posted:

In 2018 I filed taxes. I guess something I did was incorrect. I was going to fix it when I filed taxes this year but then my accountant quarantined. I won't get a stimulus check. There's nobody to talk to about it.

It's amazing that the IRS still operates through "send a letter" communication in 2020.

That's because "send a letter" is the best means they have to ensure the proper recipient gets the letter. Most IRS-faking scams involve telephone calls.

Slowpoke!
Feb 12, 2008

ANIME IS FOR ADULTS

Pillowpants posted:

My company just announced we are all working from home until 2021.

This is surreal.

We have been working from home for awhile and we were all just sent a Surveymonkey asking about the experience. I have thought about taking the survey multiple times and trying to skew the results so that we go WFH for longer, but I don't know if that will work.

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006

Slowpoke! posted:

We have been working from home for awhile and we were all just sent a Surveymonkey asking about the experience. I have thought about taking the survey multiple times and trying to skew the results so that we go WFH for longer, but I don't know if that will work.

As someone who works in HR, the word on the street is that we are going to come out of this with a LOT of wfh employees.

Sir John Falstaff
Apr 13, 2010

Random Stranger posted:

There should be congressional investigations in the same sense that there should always be some oversight after a disaster to review what happened and look for ways to improve in the future. I can sum up that future congessional report right now, too: having an insane brain-damaged idiot in charge of the government killed a lot of people.

If it's a congressional report, it will probably depend on what Congress writes the report--if a Republican Congress, it would probably say "China and WHO hosed up, so what could we do? *shrug*"

The alternative could be an independent (or semi-independent) commission, but I'd be surprised if a Republican Congress would green-light that.

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haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

VH4Ever posted:

"Why can't more people be more creatively evil and pedophilic?" - A totally normal person

Not even that, just do something more with your insane wealth than sit on it and watch the number get bigger. If we're going to replay the Gilded Age can we at least get some respectable public institutions and giant ridiculous construction projects out of it again? Why aren't they trying to make their mark upon the world in some way beyond baking oligarch-friendly policies into the government? Somebody step up and be the next Carnegie.

Basically where is that bit character from the one Simpsons episode who introduces himself by saying "Son, I represent a group of oil tycoons who make foolish purchases"

haveblue fucked around with this message at 17:31 on May 4, 2020

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