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also biden is up between 10 and 14 points despite not doing as well as hispanic voters, which isn't a sign that his coalition is weak, its a good thing in the sense of his ceiling because it shows he has more room to grow.
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Jul 8, 2020 17:33
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Majorian posted:Okay, so why Biden is underperforming Clinton among Latino voters? your argument doesn't track. you're saying that a vaccine announcement would have the effect of causing POC voters to stay home (why just this population, by the way?). but your own argument is undercut by the fact that those voters are a smaller part of biden's coalition than they were of clinton's. the correct argument to make here would be that because biden's coalition is broader than clinton's - and he is performing better among white voters - that it is more likely for trump to siphon off white supporters. also biden doing worse amongst hispanic voters does not automatically mean that the hispanic support he has is softer than his other supporters - it just means that he has fewer hispanic supporters.
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Jul 8, 2020 17:36
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Majorian posted:No, but if enough simply didn't turn out, it could certainly have an effect. It's unlikely - I still think Biden's going to win this handily. But acting like he can 100% take the left for granted suggests that centrists still haven't learned the right lessons from 2016. Again, no it won't. Not enough Bernie -> Trump voters exist in swing states. You're welcome to show a 2020 poll that says otherwise. I don't think you can though, as all the polling says that leftists just hate Trump even more than the centrists. Majorian posted:Okay, so why Biden is underperforming Clinton among Latino voters? He's not underperforming. They're still voting for him. They are chomping at the bit to vote against Trump. That's what you're not getting. A vote for Biden that is "meh" on Biden but "gently caress you" on Trump counts exactly as much as the rest of Biden's votes.
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Jul 8, 2020 17:36
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:your argument doesn't track. you're saying that a vaccine announcement would have the effect of causing POC voters to stay home (why just this population, by the way?). I never said it was just POC voters.  Nor did I say that it necessarily would have that effect. My point is, it's presumptuous to assume that this hypothetical curveball would have no effect.
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Jul 8, 2020 17:39
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Xombie posted:He's not underperforming. They're still voting for him. They are chomping at the bit to vote against Trump. That's what you're not getting. I believe he is underperforming Clinton in that more latinos plan to vote for trump than did in 2016, not in personal popularity. Biden is still winning them by a lot, but less than Clinton did.
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Jul 8, 2020 17:40
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Majorian posted:Nope, that's not what I'm arguing. What I am arguing is that Clinton lost, in part, because she could not mobilize black, Latino, and other POC voters in the Upper Midwest as solidly as she insisted she would. While I doubt very many POCs are going to turn out for Trump at all, Biden is currently underperforming Clinton among Latinos. Majorian posted:I never said it was just POC voters. then what is your argument? why are you mentioning POC voters at all then? was your previous post just two random thoughts crammed together into a single post? sure, a vaccine announcement might peal off a few voters, but the venn diagram of 'believes the things trump says', 'would give credit to trump personally for there being a vaccine' and 'is voting for biden' is very, very small. we know this because in poll after poll the crosstabs for questions such as 'do you trust president trump' are abysmally small amongst biden voters - like, sub 10%.
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Jul 8, 2020 17:40
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Xombie posted:He's not underperforming. That poll I cited says otherwise. The only way you can make this claim is if you define "underperforming" to mean something different. Seven Hundred Bee posted:then what is your argument? why are you mentioning POC voters at all then? I brought POCs in the Upper Midwest up as an example of a demographic that Clinton thought she had nailed down in 2016, but that ended up not turning out for her as much as she needed. That's literally it. Again, I don't know how a false vaccine announcement will affect voters; nobody here does. That's my entire point on that front.
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Jul 8, 2020 17:42
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https://twitter.com/jonathanchait/status/1280868782551044097?s=19 I knew we were forgetting something!
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Jul 8, 2020 17:43
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Epinephrine posted:https://twitter.com/jonathanchait/status/1280868782551044097?s=19 There was recently a good Chapo episode on these geniuses, incidentally.
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Jul 8, 2020 17:44
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Critical Poseidon endorsement
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Jul 8, 2020 17:46
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Biden missing the critical Swamp People endorsement.
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Jul 8, 2020 17:47
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https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1280857657365200902 https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1280853299600789505 https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1280899723071815680 trumps having a normal one today.
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Jul 8, 2020 17:48
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Biden missing the critical Swamp People endorsement. Trump said he'd drain it and they still turn out for him.
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Jul 8, 2020 17:48
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If the cases go against him tomorrow he is going to absolutely lose it.
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Jul 8, 2020 17:49
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I desperately want to see what is in those loving tax returns. Trump has fought so long, tooth-and-nail, to keep them under wraps.
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Jul 8, 2020 17:50
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You know what they say, a vote in the boat is worth two in critical swing states
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Jul 8, 2020 17:51
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I love how he lists Norway's open schools as an example when summer vacation is going and all of them are closed.
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Jul 8, 2020 18:00
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Epinephrine posted:https://twitter.com/jonathanchait/status/1280868782551044097?s=19
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Jul 8, 2020 18:07
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Democratic Senate challengers are destroying fundraising numbers: Amy McGrath (Kentucky) - $17.4 million Jaime Harrison (S. Carolina) - $13.9 million Sara Gideon (Maine) - $9 million Steve Bullock (Montana) - $7.7 million Cal Cunningham (N. Carolina) - $7.2 million Teresa Greenfield (Iowa) - $6 million Barbara Bollier (Kansas) - $3.7 million Jon Ossoff (Georgia) - $3.5 million Raphael Warnock (Georgia) - $2.8 million Mark Kelly hasn't reported yet but he raised $11 million in Q1, and is likely going to raise more than that in Q2. In most of these cases they are doubling/tripling the Republicans. Also a few Republicans haven't released their numbers yet but likely are being out raised. The money advantage reminds me a lot of 2018.
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Jul 8, 2020 18:10
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https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1280904345408745472 https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1280912064412778496 Trump campaign once again making Biden seem way cooler than he really is.
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Jul 8, 2020 18:13
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DaveWoo posted:https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1280904345408745472 even the real statements are much better than i thought he would say, so thats nice at least.
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Jul 8, 2020 18:15
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Xombie posted:He's not underperforming. They're still voting for him. They are chomping at the bit to vote against Trump. That's what you're not getting. Biden is doing worse than Clinton among Hispanic voters https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/11/politics/biden-hispanic-voters-analysis/index.html
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Jul 8, 2020 18:24
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OneSizeFitsAll posted:So, er, Kanye West is certainly saying some stuff. It's about as intelligent as I'd expect from him. Kanye needs to get on the ballots before he can siphon voters away from anyone, and there's apparently no sign he's trying to do this or even understands that it's a thing. He doesn't even have a campaign staff aside from two "advisors": his wife and Elon loving Musk. His entire campaign is a sick joke being played by the media using a mentally-ill man's outbursts.
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Jul 8, 2020 18:25
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I'd also like to point out how easy it would be for Biden to get more of the Hispanic vote: Just abolish ICE. It's a Bush era artifact that would lose him 0 votes if he actually pushed for it.
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Jul 8, 2020 18:46
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Epinephrine posted:https://twitter.com/jonathanchait/status/1280868782551044097?s=19 Recreational boaters are the most obnoxious, stupid, arrogant, privileged sack of poo poo rear end in a top hat fucks to stain this country's beautiful waterways ...so of course they all back Trump
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Jul 8, 2020 18:51
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Cpt_Obvious posted:I'd also like to point out how easy it would be for Biden to get more of the Hispanic vote: Just abolish ICE. It's a Bush era artifact that would lose him 0 votes if he actually pushed for it. for a guy who's suddenly obsessed with polls you seem to forget that Abolish ICE polls astoundingly poorly (only 25% for as of two years ago and I doubt it's gotten better).
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Jul 8, 2020 19:17
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abolish ice is not a popular issue among hispanic voters, and 48% believe that the US has the right number of immigrants
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Jul 8, 2020 19:38
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DutchDupe posted:Democratic Senate challengers are destroying fundraising numbers: Reminder: McGrath outraised Booker by more than 5100% ($41 million vs. less than $800,000), and still barely beat him. So I wouldn't hold my breath on her beating McConnell.
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Jul 8, 2020 19:40
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Biden is doing worse than Clinton among Hispanic voters quote:Clinton crushed Trump with Hispanic registered voters in the final 2016 preelection polls. She led by 61% to 23%. (I use the preelection polls for an apples-to-apples comparison for current polling.) 2016 Latino polling average was 61 Clinton, 23 Trump, and presumably 16% other/undecided. 2020 Latino polling average is 58 Biden, 33 Trump, and presumably 9% other/undecided. 61 to 58 is not a huge shift, and could be attributed to statistical noise. 23 to 33 is significant but can be explained partly by fewer viable third party candidates and fewer undecideds at this stage. It would be interesting to compare this to the actual exit polling of how undecided Latinos ended up voting in 2016. I'm skeptical that this difference will lead to a materially different outcome except maybe in Arizona, Texas and Florida, and none of those apart from AZ are likely to end up being tipping point states.
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Jul 8, 2020 19:49
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:Kanye needs to get on the ballots before he can siphon voters away from anyone, and there's apparently no sign he's trying to do this or even understands that it's a thing. He doesn't even have a campaign staff aside from two "advisors": his wife and Elon loving Musk. According to this article (at the bottom) he intends to try and get the deadline to get on the ballots extended due to Covid. I agree it doesn't sound very feasible or like he has a clue what he's doing. I was just curious about how it would play out if he actually did stand. quote:His entire campaign is a sick joke being played by the media using a mentally-ill man's outbursts. Is he mentally ill, or just a guy who's sense of reality is affected by A. being very dim and B. living for years in a cocooned celebrity world where he's fawned over?
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Jul 8, 2020 20:05
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DutchDupe posted:Democratic Senate challengers are destroying fundraising numbers: It annoys me that there's $30 million in long-shot races where people care cause they hate the republican not because there's a real shot there at the top and less than $7m for two absolutely winnable races at the bottom, and another $3.7 million for a race that is also winnable in a way the top two are not (because the republican candidate is kobach, who is a nutter who just lost the governors' race to a democrat)
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Jul 8, 2020 20:13
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SousaphoneColossus posted:23 to 33 is significant but can be explained partly by fewer viable third party candidates and fewer undecideds at this stage. It would be interesting to compare this to the actual exit polling of how undecided Latinos ended up voting in 2016. I'm skeptical that this difference will lead to a materially different outcome except maybe in Arizona, Texas and Florida, and none of those apart from AZ are likely to end up being tipping point states. Arizona is one of the two most likely tipping point states, however (it and Wisconsin).
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Jul 8, 2020 20:15
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Have there been studies if there are shifts in how openly people identify as Latinx? I've known a few people who present as white who've been much more willing to identify with with their actual ethnicities. but I don't know if that's just anecdotal or a thread. Timeless Appeal fucked around with this message at 20:43 on Jul 8, 2020 |
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Jul 8, 2020 20:21
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OneSizeFitsAll posted:
B. is just empirically true, but to call him "dim" seems wrong. I mean he's an entertainer getting absurd levels of his name in print for writing one tweet at the same time he has a new product to sell. One entertainment reporter put it best when he lamented that he had to take time away from enjoying the 4th to write 1000 words about Kanye, just so he could sell more albums and sneakers this week.
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Jul 8, 2020 20:36
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GarudaPrime posted:B. is just empirically true, but to call him "dim" seems wrong. I mean he's an entertainer getting absurd levels of his name in print for writing one tweet at the same time he has a new product to sell. yeah. i think its a mix of things. he is clearly mentally ill but he used to be able to point out obvious stuff like W was racist and poo poo. now he thinks he is a super man and wants to go full theocracy mixed with loving Wakanda. all the people near him are fine with him deteriorating more and more because they can still make money off of his talent. once he is used up, they will toss his rear end to the wolves. i am just more surprised that people here thought he was gonna outflank biden with the youth and AA community. like, the dude is outflanking trump from the right and doesnt offer anything outside weird religious poo poo and "deeeep" insights. i hope he gets help someday because at one point he was a cool dude.
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Jul 8, 2020 20:50
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The Lincoln Project guy did not say very pleasant things about Michael Brown.
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Jul 8, 2020 20:52
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Nonsense posted:The Lincoln Project guy did not say very pleasant things about Michael Brown. J. Edgar Hoover opposed the internment of Japanese-Americans. Bad people can still do good things on occasion.
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Jul 8, 2020 21:00
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OneSizeFitsAll posted:Is he mentally ill, or just a guy who's sense of reality is affected by A. being very dim and B. living for years in a cocooned celebrity world where he's fawned over? It’s been fairly well documented that he’s bipolar, and he’s been off his meds for a couple of years. That and B is a helluva combination. I have memories from my childhood of a handful of times where my grandma (also bipolar) would go off her medication, but those were only short lengths of time. I can’t begin to imagine what it’d have been like if she’d just decided to stop taking them forever.
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Jul 8, 2020 21:08
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https://twitter.com/AndrewFeinberg/status/1280947451323723776
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Jul 8, 2020 21:11
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:abolish ice is not a popular issue among hispanic voters, and 48% believe that the US has the right number of immigrants I feel like dems and leftists have to remind themselves this every 2 years: The Latin American community is not a unified voting bloc.
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Jul 8, 2020 21:12
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