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Who is the #1 Overall Pick
This poll is closed.
Anthony Edwards 17 26.98%
Cole Anthony 3 4.76%
James Wiseman 12 19.05%
LaMelo Ball 19 30.16%
Other 12 19.05%
Total: 63 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?

Rick posted:

I'd be so scared to have Anthony Edwards available if I was a GM. Biggest disparity between the ceiling and floor I can recall.

I don't think there's a world where he washes out of the league entirely but there's definitely one where he's pretty much Andrew Wiggins and that might be worse

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Declan MacManus
Sep 1, 2011

damn i'm really in this bitch

i figure he’ll probably be a good not great oj mayo-esque 4th option that can do a lot of stuff well but nothing spectacularly

kind of a bummer but what can you do

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop
Xavier Tillman is now a possible first rounder. That's really cool. He should be a solid multipositional defender and hopefully he'll find a role on offense other than screener

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop
Some stuff by John Hollinger about old shortneck

4. Onyeka Okongwu, PF/C, USC
Okongwu was awesome as a freshman and the only reason I don’t have him higher is that today’s game doesn’t value bigs as much. He still might be undervalued here. Relative to his position he’s arguably the best player in this draft, and in particular would seem to be an outstanding fit with the Golden State Warriors.

Let’s get into the details. Since 2011-12, five major conference NCAA freshman have had a PER north of 30 and shot better than 70 percent from the line, an important indicator that they had enough skill to be something besides a ‘90s beast-ball 5 in the pros.

The first four were Anthony Davis, Cody Zeller, Karl-Anthony Towns and Deandre Ayton. Three of them were the first pick in the draft and the other one was picked third and has had a very solid pro career.

Okongwu is the fifth. He’s currently pegged in the mid-to-late lottery by most forecasts. Maybe that’s fair — obviously, the fact that he shares a statistical similarity with a group of players does not automatically mean he will follow in their footsteps.

At the same time … in a draft this short on star potential, isn’t at least a little interesting that Okongwu’s statistical comps have been so wildly successful? It’s not like he was playing in a USC system that titled things in favor; watch the tape and at times you’ll want to run on the court and beg their guards to get him the freaking ball. At other times he had to hold spacing so that USC’s other bigs could get touches (!), even though Okongwu has an excellent post game and easily gets to jump hooks with either hand.

He put up monster stats anyway, leading the Pac-12 in PER and BPM and shooting 60.7 percent in conference play. His ability to score on the block should become more prominent at the pro level, especially against switches.

While Okongwu’s ceiling probably profiles closer to that of Ayton’s than Towns’ or Davis’, that would still be a hell of an outcome with a meh lottery pick in a weak draft. As with a player he’s frequently compared to — Miami’s Bam Adebayo — his height may be held against him at 6-9. Unlike Adebayo, however, Okongwu shows enough promise as a shooter that he may be able to play next to a true 5 as his skill level progresses. He’s already a better post scorer than Bam, but he doesn’t have his ballhandling and passing skill.

Even if Okongwu doesn’t become a stretch big, he could be a steal anywhere after the first few picks. I’m not a huge fan of drafting 5s, but Okongwu offers some positional flexibility as a 4/5 and, as noted above, he was freaking awesome this year. After the three guards at the top, Okongwu’s value proposition is just too great to ignore.



https://theathletic.com/1808864/2020/05/13/hollingers-nba-draft-top-20-plus-sleepers-the-guys-id-be-willing-to-bet-on/ from here, if you'd like me to post more, let me know

Dejan Bimble fucked around with this message at 02:45 on May 28, 2020

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop
If you need some audio draft content, Chad ford and John Bollinger have a podcast on the locked on network.

Are there other good draft focused podcasts? I have so many hours to drive

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?

Dejan Bimble posted:

If you need some audio draft content, Chad ford and John Bollinger have a podcast on the locked on network.

Are there other good draft focused podcasts? I have so many hours to drive

Game Theory and Prep 2 Pro are both pretty solid. Game Theory isn't exclusively draft focused but a lot of the episodes are.

ButtWolf
Dec 30, 2004

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
Is it just because basketball is dead or is this the most uninteresting class ever? Ball intrigues me even though I hate his dad. Wiseman and Edwards might be ok. After I don't really care about anyone.

And Okongwu looks to be solid but im still torn on him.

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?
Wiseman seems like one of the most boring guys in the class to me but I admittedly view him a lot differently than it seems like most mainstream people or fans do.

I think it's kind of an interesting class in that it's very unsettled and there are a lot of boom or bust type guys at the top, it's just hard to keep talking about the same guys for so long. There's only really so much you can say and there really isn't going to be any real draft news for months.

The Glumslinger
Sep 24, 2008

Coach Nagy, you want me to throw to WHAT side of the field?


Hair Elf

ButtWolf posted:

Is it just because basketball is dead or is this the most uninteresting class ever? Ball intrigues me even though I hate his dad. Wiseman and Edwards might be ok. After I don't really care about anyone.

And Okongwu looks to be solid but im still torn on him.

It wasn't a great draft class, and we normally have March Madness to help reinforce opinions and generate hot takes.

Declan MacManus
Sep 1, 2011

damn i'm really in this bitch

there are five quality starters with all star upside and then everything else is a big ole question mark and none of those questions are gonna be answered for a while

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop

ButtWolf posted:

Is it just because basketball is dead or is this the most uninteresting class ever? Ball intrigues me even though I hate his dad. Wiseman and Edwards might be ok. After I don't really care about anyone.

And Okongwu looks to be solid but im still torn on him.

I got two words for you Butt Wolf
Cassius Winston

Watch his highlights. He's going to be great

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?
I have kinda slowly come around to Winston as a back of the first type guy because he's so good in the pick and roll and shooting off the dribble but the margin of error for a tiny guy who can't jump at all is so thin. I have him, Tre Jones, Flynn, and Dotson all kinda clustered together in the 28-35 range and go back and forth a lot on how to order them.

The MSU guy I really love is Tillman who I think is a top 20ish guy even if I'm not totally sure how he scores.

MourningView fucked around with this message at 04:57 on Jul 7, 2020

abuse culture.
Sep 8, 2004
Who are the Raptors going to pick please

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop

MourningView posted:

I have kinda slowly come around to Winston as a back of the first type guy because he's so good in the pick and roll and shooting off the dribble but the margin of error for a tiny guy who can't jump at all is so thin. I have him, Tre Jones, Flynn, and Dotson all kinda clustered together in the 28-35 range and go back and forth a lot on how to order them.

The MSU guy I really love is Tillman who I think is a top 20ish guy even if I'm not totally sure how he scores.

I see him as a modern day Jose Calderon, someone who can make every pass that exists within 2 or 3 beats of man-movement and who can reliably make every shot that isn't swallowed up. I think he could find a role as a backup pg who leads a fast scoring bench who then gets put back into the tool box when a modern 6'5 pg olympian pg comes back into the game and starts bashing him into the ground like mario.

Tillman is really good at everything, abuse culture, he is the type of guy Toronto likes. Jack of All trades, great passer, long arms, maybe not super popcorn popper athletic but moves well enough.

abuse culture.
Sep 8, 2004
Good. I’m just happy to see picks for the raps, they seem to be really good at player evaluation. They keep digging up good Guys in the draft and they were even able to guess that kawhi leonard is better than demar derozen

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?
Tillman would be good as a possible Gasol replacement, he has a lot of similarities as a very strong and smart interior defender who can handle and pass a little and sets great screens, his ceiling is just kind of limited by his lack of great size/length and inability to shoot.

The guy I really like who seems to be falling into he Raptors range on most mocks is Desmond Bane. He's a little bit like Terrance Davis last year in that he has pretty much every skill you'd want from a rotation wing but seems to be off the radar because he's an older four year player. I don't think he'll test athletically as well as Davis did but he's also a better shooter.

Paul Reed just feels very Raptory to me. Skinny, athletic, long armed guy with freaky defensive numbers who flashes some ball handling and playmaking but needs a ton of polish, especially on his shot, and is kind of tweener position wise. He sorta fits in the Siakam mold of a guy they'd take and develop in the g-league for a bit.

Grant Riller is another one of my favorite players who seems to be falling into the late first range. I think has a lot of potential as a sixth man instant offense type guy; he's a good off the dribble shooter with an incredible first step who gets to the rim at will and finishes at a super high rate despite pretty underwhelming athleticism. He gets a ton of FVV comps, but I don't think they really play all that similarly. They do look extremely alike facially though.

MourningView fucked around with this message at 13:54 on Jul 7, 2020

El Gallinero Gros
Mar 17, 2010
It sounds like this draft will be fine if you're hoping for a useful rotation guy, but if you're hoping for a guy who averages really strong numbers and helps carry your squad you'll be wildly disappointed

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?

El Gallinero Gros posted:

It sounds like this draft will be fine if you're hoping for a useful rotation guy, but if you're hoping for a guy who averages really strong numbers and helps carry your squad you'll be wildly disappointed

This is generally my take yeah. I think it's a pretty deep draft in terms of guys who have a good chance to stick in the league. I like the second round and back of the first more than I usually do. There just aren't very many guys I feel super confident can be quality starters and pretty much no one I would feel confident predicting as a future all star

pseudodragon
Jun 16, 2007


abuse culture. posted:

Who are the Raptors going to pick please

Raps beat guy on the Athletic had a nice chat with Vecenie a while back and Reed and Riller were two of the guys they talked most about as being good fits for the Rap profile. Isiah Stewart was the other guy they went in depth about with a lot of other names mentioned as interesting possibilities.

Declan MacManus
Sep 1, 2011

damn i'm really in this bitch

MourningView posted:

This is generally my take yeah. I think it's a pretty deep draft in terms of guys who have a good chance to stick in the league. I like the second round and back of the first more than I usually do. There just aren't very many guys I feel super confident can be quality starters and pretty much no one I would feel confident predicting as a future all star

onyeka okongwu feels like he could be a fringe all-star and he’s probably the closest thing this draft has as a sure bet

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?

pseudodragon posted:

Raps beat guy on the Athletic had a nice chat with Vecenie a while back and Reed and Riller were two of the guys they talked most about as being good fits for the Rap profile. Isiah Stewart was the other guy they went in depth about with a lot of other names mentioned as interesting possibilities.

There is probably a point where it's worth taking Stewart but it's way after where he's actually going to get drafted. No thanks on a slow post up big who is doo doo on defense. I know Vecenie loves him but he's putting way too much weight on what college coaches say about him. Stewart is the classic great college player who doesn't translate.

The Glumslinger
Sep 24, 2008

Coach Nagy, you want me to throw to WHAT side of the field?


Hair Elf

Declan MacManus posted:

onyeka okongwu feels like he could be a fringe all-star and he’s probably the closest thing this draft has as a sure bet

He definitely feels like he could be a multi-time allstar if he lands in the right place, like he could get a shitload of easy layups for the next decade if he ends up on the Warriors

Algund Eenboom
May 4, 2014

Lamelo has a new jumpshot --->https://streamable.com/1jcpas Im no draft expert but it doesnt look particularly good

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.
Nah, it's how his shot has always been, he's always had a chest shot
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HypKvkLE-tM&t=66s

It's not good, but it's not quite as messed up as Lonzo's coming into the league, and it doesn't have a ridiculously long windup, which is nice.

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?
His dad had him shooting like pull up half court threes before he was strong enough to lift the ball above his shoulders so yeah it's really hosed up

Katana_Warrior
Dec 25, 2009

Algund Eenboom posted:

Lamelo has a new jumpshot --->https://streamable.com/1jcpas Im no draft expert but it doesnt look particularly good

He's not smashing his heals together everytime he jumps anymore, so that's better. Maybe they're just taking his form as a long term project and are handling the bad pieces one by one

Declan MacManus
Sep 1, 2011

damn i'm really in this bitch

Katana_Warrior posted:

He's not smashing his heals together everytime he jumps anymore, so that's better. Maybe they're just taking his form as a long term project and are handling the bad pieces one by one

it’s the smartest way to fix that stuff; trying to scrap a compound motion that has x years of muscle memory built in just means that it’s going to break down in high pressure moments, especially if it’s going in already

only scrap the whole form if there are severe accuracy issues or if you’re being blocked repeatedly (or i guess if you’re worried about that stuff in the nba); lamelo’s problem isn’t his form (which isn’t great but it’s fast enough if low) but his peepee doodoo shot selection

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop

Declan MacManus posted:

it’s the smartest way to fix that stuff; trying to scrap a compound motion that has x years of muscle memory built in just means that it’s going to break down in high pressure moments, especially if it’s going in already

only scrap the whole form if there are severe accuracy issues or if you’re being blocked repeatedly (or i guess if you’re worried about that stuff in the nba); lamelo’s problem isn’t his form (which isn’t great but it’s fast enough if low) but his peepee doodoo shot selection

From watching highlights of his from Australia, he seems to make really quick reads on passes, and following that, he seems to see his shot in the same way as a pass. If he has a second of daylight then he lets go. That's something you should do if you're good, or at least a bit above average at shooting. If you're bad, you need to wait until you're actually open.

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?
Eh, just being willing to shoot is also important, especially for a lead guard. It's kind of counterintuitive but guys who are so so from three but very willing to let it fly usually have more gravity than guys who shoot a good percentage on very low attempts.

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?
https://twitter.com/DickieV/status/1283395346291400705?s=19

Xavier no!! I hate how izzo somehow manages to neg every good player he gets into staying an extra year.

I really don't get how in a draft like this some smart team picking in the late first doesn't promise him. Like he has some physical limitations but he's such an obviously good basketball player, and good at stuff that translates, I don't see how he isn't close to a lock to have a long career as a rotation guy.

MourningView fucked around with this message at 18:04 on Jul 15, 2020

got some chores tonight
Feb 18, 2012

honk honk whats for lunch...
like how russell westbrook is literally the worst three point shooter in the history of the league but hes also taken several game-winning 3s

Metapod
Mar 18, 2012
Please lets not forget that Charles Barkley is actually the worst 3pt shooter of all time

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


zogo.exe who're the bottom 10 for 3np

Declan MacManus
Sep 1, 2011

damn i'm really in this bitch

got some chores tonight posted:

like how russell westbrook is literally the worst three point shooter in the history of the league but hes also taken several game-winning 3s

you gotta have confidence; nobody's running the numbers on your shooting percentage from the wing with nobody on you when they're trying to close out on a shooter

the important thing is to only close out on decent looks as opposed to wasting time contesting, like, off balance 27 footers or half court fadeaways that shooters with no conscience are taking

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


Declan MacManus posted:

you gotta have confidence; nobody's running the numbers on your shooting percentage from the wing with nobody on you when they're trying to close out on a shooter

the important thing is to only close out on decent looks as opposed to wasting time contesting, like, off balance 27 footers or half court fadeaways that shooters with no conscience are taking

Yeah let everyone but Steph have those, and defend Steph by giving him a Jose Aldo leg kick

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop

MourningView posted:

https://twitter.com/DickieV/status/1283395346291400705?s=19

Xavier no!! I hate how izzo somehow manages to neg every good player he gets into staying an extra year.

I really don't get how in a draft like this some smart team picking in the late first doesn't promise him. Like he has some physical limitations but he's such an obviously good basketball player, and good at stuff that translates, I don't see how he isn't close to a lock to have a long career as a rotation guy.

It's confusing. I was waiting for a story in the Free Press about how he wanted to be close to family in case the season is canceled, something like that, but I haven't heard a thing past this stuff in an sbnation MSU bball blog

"You look at some of the draft (projections) and some of them have him in the late first round and some of them have him in the late second or not drafted. He’s kind of learned those things matter none. It’s the NBA that matters. That’s been a little hard for him, because you kind of want to believe the good. It’s very difficult at 20 years old to be able to look at things like that." -Izzo

Izzo went a step further and stated that he believes that Tillman has some improving to do if he wants to improve his stock to become a surefire first-rounder.

"What some people have told me is it would really help him to really improve that shot, which I think he will. I mean it’s not broken, he just needs reps. And then improve his lateral quickness, which I think he can. Find the right weight — maybe it’s 240, 245 — be able to stay there in the best shape and be able to switch positions (between power forward and center). For his long-range (prospects), I think he is better staying another year (at MSU), because I don’t think there’s enough definitive answers yet."

It's true that he could improve his shot and get better hip mobility, but I think you're right that he could have very easily found himself in a good role on a good organization in the 20s

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?
He could definitely get a little better at shooting, I guess, but his biggest issue as a prospect is that he's not like 3 inches taller and I don't think that's changing with another year.

Declan MacManus
Sep 1, 2011

damn i'm really in this bitch

anything izzo could do for him an nba coaching staff would be able to do much better

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop
"I'd love to see this guy on Golden State" has replaced "I think his best fit is on the Spurs" in NBA Draft guy lingo

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Salvor_Hardin
Sep 13, 2005

I want to go protest.
Nap Ghost

Rick posted:

I'd be so scared to have Anthony Edwards available if I was a GM. Biggest disparity between the ceiling and floor I can recall.

The Anthony Davis to Anthony Bennett dichotomy of Anthonies.

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