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I forgot to format that post and now I can't edit it ughhhhhhhhh 
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Aug 21, 2020 22:31
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Rarity posted:Ok binus post summary: Hate to meta game but we were just scum together last game and it's incredibly unlikely were both scum.
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Aug 21, 2020 22:31
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Toalpaz posted:Hate to meta game but we were just scum together last game and it's incredibly unlikely were both scum. This is not how probability works!
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Aug 21, 2020 22:32
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It basically is
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Aug 21, 2020 22:33
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Mutually exclusive probability dictates that the outcome of an event does not effect the probability of a discretely separate event
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Aug 21, 2020 22:33
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gently caress yeah I got a maths degree, come at me bro
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Aug 21, 2020 22:33
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Math aside, guys we got a problem.
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Aug 21, 2020 22:34
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Yeah but like the chances of flipping heads twice in a row isn't 50% right?
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Aug 21, 2020 22:35
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Toalpaz posted:Yeah but like the chances of flipping heads twice in a row isn't 50% right? Okay Gavin.
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Aug 21, 2020 22:36
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Toalpaz posted:Yeah but like the chances of flipping heads twice in a row isn't 50% right? No but once this doesn't matter once the first event has occured. Once you have observed flipping heads once, the chance of flipping heads the next time you toss a coin is still 50%
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Aug 21, 2020 22:36
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But what’s the good news toal?
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Aug 21, 2020 22:36
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I think this is the first time I used my degree since I left uni 15 years ago
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Aug 21, 2020 22:37
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well I think Rarity's wrong about Sci anyway so the probability doesn't matter 
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Aug 21, 2020 22:37
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sandnavyguy posted:Math aside, guys we got a problem. don't fuckin elaborate or anything just leave this post here Toalpaz posted:Yeah but like the chances of flipping heads twice in a row isn't 50% right? no, the chance of any given coinflip is 50% though. the past doesn't predict the future. if your only defense of not being scum buds with someone is "well we were last game" then, well, your defense is weak
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Aug 21, 2020 22:37
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Im going to sit on it but it's a very very promising result.
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Aug 21, 2020 22:38
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Bifauxnen posted:well I think Rarity's wrong about Sci anyway so the probability doesn't matter Well I think your face is wrong so nyeeeeeeh
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Aug 21, 2020 22:39
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Sorry that was rude  I've been drinking
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Aug 21, 2020 22:39
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Pretty sure pressure was on SnG when the Grid stuff popped up.
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Aug 21, 2020 22:41
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Epsilon Plus posted:don't fuckin elaborate or anything just leave this post here I’m going to I didn’t wanna interrupt if toal was gonna put something out there, but since we’re just arguing probability theory, the scum team has a kill that can. Pass jail. Cause I jailed Hum
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Aug 21, 2020 22:41
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Toalpaz posted:Yeah but like the chances of flipping heads twice in a row isn't 50% right? The chances of a coin flipping heads twice in a row is different than the chances of a coin flipping heads after previously flipping heads.
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Aug 21, 2020 22:41
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sandnavyguy posted:I’m going to I didn’t wanna interrupt if toal was gonna put something out there, but since we’re just arguing probability theory, the scum team has a kill that can. Pass jail. Cause I jailed Hum drat mobile phone, I meant I hailed Hum but he died anyway. That’s bad news.
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Aug 21, 2020 22:42
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I'm not 100% sure I believe SNG but I'm willing to buy it for now.
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Aug 21, 2020 22:43
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Epsilon Plus posted:I'm not 100% sure I believe SNG but I'm willing to buy it for now. I don't. ##vote SNG
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Aug 21, 2020 22:45
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Rarity posted:Well I think your face is wrong so nyeeeeeeh Ohhhhhh that's why someone was saying they mixed us up
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Aug 21, 2020 22:45
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sandnavyguy posted:drat mobile phone, I meant I hailed Hum but he died anyway. That’s bad news. Uh this is pretty bad news.
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Aug 21, 2020 22:45
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SNG, why did you choose Hum to jail?Epsilon Plus posted:I'm not 100% sure I believe SNG but I'm willing to buy it for now. If he was scum would be pretty easy to just say he'd jailed somebody else, no?
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Aug 21, 2020 22:46
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Ah wait I guess there's always the chance he'd bullshit jailing a PR and get caught out. But we did have a bunch of VTs claim already so could always just go for them. But then why would you jail a claimed VT. Ughhhh.
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Aug 21, 2020 22:47
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Amnistar posted:I don't. Look, I don’t like this either. We apparently have 2 killers, one of whom can bypass kill prevention. And since one of those dead is a scum (thankfully) it means it wasn’t the SK.
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Aug 21, 2020 22:47
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Bifauxnen posted:Ohhhhhh that's why someone was saying they mixed us up It's me, I'm the one who is owned 
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Aug 21, 2020 22:47
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Rarity posted:SNG, why did you choose Hum to jail? Nah because jailing roleblocks the target so it's more loose ends and lies. IDK but if we have someone else targeting h um to prove SNG right it would be okay. I would hesitate to claim though because it probably isn't worth it.
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Aug 21, 2020 22:47
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Rarity posted:Ah wait I guess there's always the chance he'd bullshit jailing a PR and get caught out. I jailed him because he straight up was the first person to believe my claim, AND he sounded like he had a plan.
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Aug 21, 2020 22:48
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sandnavyguy posted:Look, I don’t like this either. We apparently have 2 killers, one of whom can bypass kill prevention. And since one of those dead is a scum (thankfully) it means it wasn’t the SK. I mean...I didn't beleive you yesterday, and the only reason I moved to DGK is so *someone* died D1. Your claim today does nothing to make me want to beleive you.
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Aug 21, 2020 22:48
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sandnavyguy posted:Look, I don’t like this either. We apparently have 2 killers, one of whom can bypass kill prevention. And since one of those dead is a scum (thankfully) it means it wasn’t the SK. I mean it could be a vigilante or some sort of BP ability too? Why do you think there's an SK my friend.
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Aug 21, 2020 22:48
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Toalpaz posted:I mean it could be a vigilante or some sort of BP ability too? Why do you think there's an SK my friend. I mean BP PGO here too. 
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Aug 21, 2020 22:49
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rarity you may have a maths degree but I have a history degree and those posts are in the past
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Aug 21, 2020 22:49
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Toalpaz posted:I mean it could be a vigilante or some sort of BP ability too? Why do you think there's an SK my friend. Because one of the people killed was a scum? I mean, I guess with shenanigans it’s possible they killed one of their own or something, but I’m going with occams razor.
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Aug 21, 2020 22:50
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Toalpaz posted:I mean it could be a vigilante or some sort of BP ability too? Why do you think there's an SK my friend. Yeah scum goon would be doing the kill most likely so b- could have run into a PGO or something. Definitely too early to assume SK I don’t know what to make of jailing hum and him dying SNG maybe I missed it. Did you get a success or whatever result and was it specific to hum or just generic?
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Aug 21, 2020 22:50
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Toalpaz posted:I mean BP PGO here too. drat you toalpaz
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Aug 21, 2020 22:51
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if he were PGO I’d be dead.
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Aug 21, 2020 22:51
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sandnavyguy posted:Because one of the people killed was a scum? I mean, I guess with shenanigans it’s possible they killed one of their own or something, but I’m going with occams razor. Town vigs exist sandnavyguy posted:if he were PGO I’d be dead. Not hum, b- could have run into a PGO
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Aug 21, 2020 22:52
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