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Gridlocked posted:This Rarity vs Gaspy war needs to sort itself out too. On this, I feel like there’s not much to it. From my point of view, I know rarity is wrong, and I feel like her angle is too fabricated to sustain itself so I think it’ll burn out which is good. It’s better buried, avoid dragging it out imo
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Aug 22, 2020 10:38
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hambeet posted:lol shadowy man in the wings what? ALP Powerbroker m8
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Aug 22, 2020 10:42
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everybody who said Toal’s probability calculations are wrong is scum. numbers aren’t real
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Aug 22, 2020 10:48
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Asphyxious posted:On this, I feel like there’s not much to it. Tell me more about how I only drop votes on vote leaders 
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Aug 22, 2020 10:52
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Rarity posted:Tell me more about how I only drop votes on vote leaders Nothing you say to this end has any value because I’m town. As I said I’m not interested in prolonging this. I need more information and your case is both utterly flawed and reaches an incorrect conclusion. If you are scum and think you can get me lynched you’re welcome to waste the day but I hope for your sake you case someone else.
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Aug 22, 2020 11:09
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Lol at Gaspy realising he hosed up his case on me and backpedalling in the hopes no one checks his working
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Aug 22, 2020 11:17
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Asphyxious posted:Nothing you say to this end has any value because I’m town. you seem a bit hesitant to ##vote rarity
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Aug 22, 2020 12:09
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[quote="SHALASHASKA HAWKE" post="507463947"] you seem a bit hesitant to ##vote rarity [/quote
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Aug 22, 2020 14:21
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sandnavyguy posted:I’m going to I didn’t wanna interrupt if toal was gonna put something out there, but since we’re just arguing probability theory, the scum team has a kill that can. Pass jail. Cause I jailed Hum I don’t buy this at all. ##vote SNG
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Aug 22, 2020 14:31
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sandnavyguy posted:I’m sorry if it’s not a foolproof plan, but it’s what I had when I voted to protect Hum right after we lost DGK I’m still catching up but none of SNG’s subsequent posts are making me rethink my vote on him.
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Aug 22, 2020 14:35
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Asphyxious posted:Also Rarity’s done the whole “what do you think about (player), (other player)?” Which is always a bit of a flag. You know who did this also very very obviously? SNG.
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Aug 22, 2020 14:38
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tpink posted:I’m still catching up but none of SNG’s subsequent posts are making me rethink my vote on him. I agree that SNG (partly through sheer volume) has started to seem a bit better, but there is a long history of scummy behavior and I agree with Toalpaz's thought that it's a lot to ask to believe that SNG happened to jail the NK choice and the scum happened to have a juggernaut or whatever that bypassed the alleged jail. Can't discount the possibility of redirects, etc... but on the whole it all seems very fishy. Also never a fan of someone needing a day to come up with cases when pressed to stop just defending themselves despite having the time to continually respond to every person casing them.
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Aug 22, 2020 14:46
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Rarity posted:But there's a difference between these two sentences. This is a doozy and a real stretch.
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Aug 22, 2020 14:46
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Hal Incandenza posted:I agree that SNG (partly through sheer volume) has started to seem a bit better, but there is a long history of scummy behavior and I agree with Toalpaz's thought that it's a lot to ask to believe that SNG happened to jail the NK choice and the scum happened to have a juggernaut or whatever that bypassed the alleged jail. Can't discount the possibility of redirects, etc... but on the whole it all seems very fishy. It’s (1) an incredibly unlikely sequence of events (I don’t have a maths degree but even I know the odds for this actually happening are very very slim) and (2) coupled with it coming from SNG, the person who deservedly almost got lynched and has every motivation to make all this up = scum.
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Aug 22, 2020 14:51
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I mean seriously, everyone just pause for a second and consider the odds of SNG jailing the very person that scum targeted, of there being a juggernaut in the game (I honesty can’t even recall the last time I saw it in one of these games - it’s not a common PR at all), AND of scum using juggernaut to target the person that SNG happened to jail. It boggles the mind.
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Aug 22, 2020 14:53
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Looking back at b- I get basically nothing from his posts, most notable things is he never even mentions SNG which is another point against them. The light push on gridlocked late is weird, but why hop off the DGK case to start a bus on a scumbro at that point, unless Grid was in more danger then than I realize.
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Aug 22, 2020 14:54
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tpink posted:I mean seriously, everyone just pause for a second and consider the odds of SNG jailing the very person that scum targeted, of there being a juggernaut in the game (I honesty can’t even recall the last time I saw it in one of these games - it’s not a common PR at all), AND of scum using juggernaut to target the person that SNG happened to jail. It boggles the mind. Yeah I agree I don't think there is any way that went down (why would scum not just kill SNG anyway) and if SNG is actually telling the truth it was way more likely to be a redirect happening. But mostly it seems like a lie. Kind of a strange gambit for scum but I suppose SNG had to say they jailed someone and by picking the NK you at least avoid half the equation that could counter-claim your action.
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Aug 22, 2020 14:59
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Rarity posted:Lol at Gaspy realising he hosed up his case on me and backpedalling in the hopes no one checks his working Yesterday I would have been more likely to agree with you because I thought Gaspy was being intentionally unhelpful and voted DGK for spurious (non-existent) reasoning PLUS I was conflating him and HAWKE (sorry birb/gaspy I know you are different people) but he's been pretty on-point today and you are doing everything you can to misconstrue what has been happening. I was pretty solid that you were townie yesterday but now you are falling into a pattern of being very vocal in trying to push people and then kind if walking away from it when it doesn't get the traction you want. Bif said she thinks this is town rarity but I am coming around on you trying to be the loud scum that controls the game. There are better choices than you right now (SNG) but you are climbing the list.
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Aug 22, 2020 15:06
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Sandwolf posted:Yeah but that info is like, not super useful. Okay so maybe there’s a juggernaut kill, great? Maybe it was 1-shot, maybe it wasn’t, either way, it shouldn’t really alter the way anyone is playing. I think someone else brought this up, but this is a weird post with a weird tone. I would be surprised if this was a SNG bus, but in the world where SNG was town this would light up my scumdar. Sandwolf in general is being much more passive than recent games where he was town. Also don't like that his suspicion list outside of SNG is Gridlocked (still don't see why scum would play like this) and two people who basically have no content at all (HAWKE and taste)
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Aug 22, 2020 15:11
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Actually I retract that Sandwolf read, I looked back at his D1 play and he seems pretty townie there and he's been consistent in his reads and while I wish he would post more I am no longer finding him scummy, sorry Wolfie.
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Aug 22, 2020 15:14
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Hal Incandenza posted:Yeah I agree I don't think there is any way that went down (why would scum not just kill SNG anyway) and if SNG is actually telling the truth it was way more likely to be a redirect happening. But mostly it seems like a lie. Kind of a strange gambit for scum but I suppose SNG had to say they jailed someone and by picking the NK you at least avoid half the equation that could counter-claim your action. I think the redirect story is equally implausible because then you still have to have (1) SNG jailing Hum, the person the scum happens to target, and (2) the redirect happening to pick SNG for their action (and I have no clue why they’d pick him last night). I don’t like those odds at all either, and the much more likely answer is that SNG is lying, yeah.
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Aug 22, 2020 15:18
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The only reasoning to me at this point not to vote out SNG is that they are basically boxed in now and there is only so long you can go before getting trapped in a lie with that claim so if we have another decent candidate we can circle back to SNG next time they have an implausible result. But I would have to see some realllllly townie posts to get to that point. Also of course scum jailer is a perfectly feasible role to exist.
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Aug 22, 2020 15:19
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I guess to be clear and to spell out my thinking more, the SNG possibilities as I see them are: (1) SNG is telling the truth and there’s a juggernaut in the game that happened to target the same player that SNG happened to protect; (2) SNG is telling the truth and there’s a redirect PR in the game that happened to target SNG, and scum happened to target the player that SNG was protecting; or (3) SNG is lying. Ockham’s razor says it’s door 3.
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Aug 22, 2020 15:22
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Hal Incandenza posted:The only reasoning to me at this point not to vote out SNG is that they are basically boxed in now and there is only so long you can go before getting trapped in a lie with that claim so if we have another decent candidate we can circle back to SNG next time they have an implausible result. But I would have to see some realllllly townie posts to get to that point. Also of course scum jailer is a perfectly feasible role to exist. Oh duh and that last bit didn’t even occur to me, of course. So even if SNG is telling the truth about the night actions, which I still find super implausible, that still doesn’t clear him of being scum.
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Aug 22, 2020 15:23
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Hal Incandenza posted:Yeah I agree I don't think there is any way that went down (why would scum not just kill SNG anyway) and if SNG is actually telling the truth it was way more likely to be a redirect happening. But mostly it seems like a lie. Kind of a strange gambit for scum but I suppose SNG had to say they jailed someone and by picking the NK you at least avoid half the equation that could counter-claim your action. idk, it'd be just as safe / risky to claim to be roleblocked.
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Aug 22, 2020 15:23
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hambeet posted:idk, it'd be just as safe / risky to claim to be roleblocked. Yeah that’s probably the only thing to really do, but then I’d say well real weird they didn’t roleblock or kill you D1 so that’s still a suspicious result in my eyes
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Aug 22, 2020 15:29
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Hal Incandenza posted:Yesterday I would have been more likely to agree with you because I thought Gaspy was being intentionally unhelpful and voted DGK for spurious (non-existent) reasoning PLUS I was conflating him and HAWKE (sorry birb/gaspy I know you are different people) but he's been pretty on-point today and you are doing everything you can to misconstrue what has been happening. I was pretty solid that you were townie yesterday but now you are falling into a pattern of being very vocal in trying to push people and then kind if walking away from it when it doesn't get the traction you want. Bif said she thinks this is town rarity but I am coming around on you trying to be the loud scum that controls the game. There are better choices than you right now (SNG) but you are climbing the list. Hal, he said I was bandwagoning my votes. Look at the votes I've laid down this game. That's not how I've played this game. That's never how I play. He's bullshitting. You know this.
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Aug 22, 2020 15:44
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Yah retracing it you don’t bandwagon vote but I stick to the rest of it. Two new things I noticed, on reread. 1) The only exception is when pressure came in on DGK you actually went in to bat for them pretty solidly. 2) You and Scientastic are very much synchronised, that’s not odd? These aren’t gotchas, just want them noted for my own reference later.
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Aug 22, 2020 16:19
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Your case on me is still exceptionally bad though. If you’re not scum I’m not sure what’s going on there.
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Aug 22, 2020 16:21
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Asphyxious posted:Your case on me is still exceptionally bad though. If you’re not scum I’m not sure what’s going on there. Lol you made up poo poo about me that isn't real
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Aug 22, 2020 16:28
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The Curious Case of Tpink One of the first actual posts Tpink makes on D1 aside from supporting Hambeet in the bif dispute, which may be important later, is this, a weak "this is odd" post on Amni's scummy switch, which they basically just reframe the argument already against it, and only serves as a lovetap of a bus. Amni was in no actual risk of getting a vote train. tpink posted:The whole swing from "Sci scumslipped and I'm not backing off it!!" to this is odd. Then you have this alleyoop pair of quotes that only supports people to [insert neon sign] LOOK AT AMNIS ARGUMENT ITS VERY STRONG, AND HES WILLING TO GO ALL IN ON IT! tpink posted:And as I already said, I don't think that original post was a scumslip anyway, but Amni was all in on it nonetheless - despite many people saying "hey this is silly" - and then he moves the vote after that big production anyway. What was the point of all that? Amnistar posted:Its almost like you don't read my post...that is actually how bad SNG's post was to me. It's a "but why Amni are you choosing this product? It doesnt seem right!" followed by "Well, Tpink, because its so easy to use Ill eat my hat if..." infomercial tactic. which has been used before quite well. Is this a stretch? well it would be if Tpink didn't suddenly stop ever mentioning it again! Then we have this: tpink posted:I think people may be getting unduly swayed by the fact that SNG was just scum in a very recent game and they think his posting here is similar. Which seems like a defense, except its not. its planting the seed that oh! SNG is posting very similar to scum SNG! Its an insidious backhanded compliment. Then a legitimate vote on grid despite there being no steam for that engine, Then radio silence until today! Aside from just being a lurker, the vast majority of Tpinks posts are strategic and placed to emphasize the arguments of whomever is louder at the time, an easy way to skate by D1, or implying that the vote leader is bad. which is null. After his analysis of me and D2 so far? that scale tips completely scums way. we start with the same thing as Amni, a quick nope vote: tpink posted:I don’t buy this at all. But follows it up with actual analysis, which becomes their downfall. tpink posted:You know who did this also very very obviously? SNG. This is in regard to the baffling claim by gaspy that "Also Rarity’s done the whole “what do you think about (player), (other player)?” Which is always a bit of a flag." Which is not so much a red flag as it is a basic BASIC scumhunting technique. tpink posted:It’s (1) an incredibly unlikely sequence of events (I don’t have a maths degree but even I know the odds for this actually happening are very very slim) and (2) coupled with it coming from SNG, the person who deservedly almost got lynched and has every motivation to make all this up = scum. If rarity needs to opine about probability theory then okay, but the odds in a vaccum are equal to anyone else. its in concert they become slim, and we've already covered this to death.and the enitredy of point 2 is written that "Yes I deserve it so much" when they gave no actual support to that before D1 ended, and actually used their last post of any substanceto defend me, albeit backhandedly. Quite the attitude change, no? tpink posted:I mean seriously, everyone just pause for a second and consider the odds of SNG jailing the very person that scum targeted, of there being a juggernaut in the game (I honesty can’t even recall the last time I saw it in one of these games - it’s not a common PR at all), AND of scum using juggernaut to target the person that SNG happened to jail. It boggles the mind. All they are doing in the above quote is restating gaspys points, done badly. There are multiple scenarios it could be, we've already addressed its far more likely to be a simple bus driver scenario,and gthey intentionally choose the most unlikely scenario and couch it in an outlandish way. They are rereading this fresh, theres no reason to cherrypick the most alarmist scenario, when we've within the last two pages addresed that very point. Then they follow it up by stating the redirect scenario several posts later, tpink posted:I think the redirect story is equally implausible because then you still have to have (1) SNG jailing Hum, the person the scum happens to target, and (2) the redirect happening to pick SNG for their action (and I have no clue why they’d pick him last night). I don’t like those odds at alleither, and the much more likely answer is that SNG is lying, yeah. OMGUS arguments of course to come, but congrats Tpink, you stole Grids thunder today. ##vote Tpink
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Aug 22, 2020 17:26
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Also, fun fact about the probabilities! regardless of who they are scum does not vote in a vaccum! nor do Town! the only way these slim odds are as slim as yall are making it out to be [1/17]x[1/17] is if everyone were playing with a Roulette wheel. we arent. everyone is making calculated decisions, which actually narrow the possibilities down greatly. Short a spreadsheet from hell and a psyche profile on each player, drafting a probability chart is inane. So can we move past probability arguments?
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Aug 22, 2020 17:33
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I refuse to do math
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Aug 22, 2020 17:37
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Sandwolf posted:I refuse to do math That’s the spirit!
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Aug 22, 2020 17:38
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Sorry SNG I probably have some low grade dyscalculia or just bad ADHD
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Aug 22, 2020 17:40
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Sandwolf posted:Sorry SNG I probably have some low grade dyscalculia or just bad ADHD It’s ok, I was being genuine. All this math crunching is a poor exercise right now.
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Aug 22, 2020 17:40
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sandnavyguy posted:It’s ok, I was being genuine. All this math crunching is a poor exercise right now. I wasn’t being sarcastic I mean
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Aug 22, 2020 17:41
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This whole bit where instead of casing things I say, bif posts weird call outs hoping I respond and then saying my responses are proof of me being scum is weird. It's just a very very strange meta case and can read as very lazy scum participation because she anticipates if I do respond she can win an argument against me. Bifauxnen posted:Why did you feel the need to claim VT explicitly? Bifauxnen posted:(usually a town Toal will be tripping my scumdar like crazy cause they're getting into the thick of it more) Bifauxnen posted:When Toal is posting a bunch and sounding super scummy as always, they often turn out to be town. Bifauxnen posted:And you don't need to know or believe any of what I said about Toal to notice they still aren't showing up yet. Bifauxnen posted:Uggggh Toal just not even reacting at all to me trying to push em does not feel good, but I guess when it's getting close to deadline they don't need to care. Keep a close eye on Toal if I continue my streak of ending up dead tomorrow. Bifauxnen posted:Ah here we go! Bifauxnen posted:Ok this is what I was really hoping woulda happened earlier back when I first voted Toal Bifauxnen posted:Ooh yum artisan scum jam Bifauxnen posted:Ugh can Toal just drop whatever they wanted to go on about so I can decide if it's bullshit and if it's more bullshit than this bullshit IDK, if this is seriously your town play bif, please remove this. All it is is tunnelling on someone without any real evidence based on a gut read.
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Aug 22, 2020 17:47
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That being said, at this point in the conversation even if we miss scum we really need to remove sand navy guy. I can't see myself being able to proceed in the game without knowing if SNG is scum or not, just because of the pages and pages of speculation. Personally, a lot of the rationalization and circumstances around SNG's n1 play point to him being scum, so I will vote him. We also know now that he'll never prove himself by saving town at night, the only night action thing that would help him. I just can't trust him or that scum will use him in lylo to make us lose the game. ##vote sng
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Aug 22, 2020 17:50
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Regardless of whether or not you’re comfortable Toal, I still think willfully removing a town PR is a pretty hefty prospect. Regardless of if there’s a bus driver or not, having a roleblocker and protector seems like a very useful town role rn. Especially if there is a second night kill, or SK.
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Aug 22, 2020 17:54
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