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Groovelord Neato
Dec 6, 2014


The IRS also shouldn't be giving anyone a check in the tens of millions of dollars (poo poo it'd be crime if it was in the hundreds of thousands).

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Handsome Ralph
Sep 3, 2004

Oh boy, posting!
That's where I'm a Viking!


Almost Smart posted:

So if he loses in November, does he try to slog things out in court and hope his crooked justices just hand him the presidency, or does he cut bait and resign so President Pence can pardon whatever he's able to pardon in the meantime? I think he's old enough to drag things out to the point he never sees a day behind bars regardless, but that's not going to help his lovely kids who are also probably up to their balls in tax fraud and other shady dealings.

It really depends. If it's narrow enough in the right places, he will likely drag things out in court and who the gently caress knows what happens at that point. If it's clear he's been blown the gently caress out, I think most establishment GOP types will cut their losses and go on to screech about Biden's incoming admin.

Paracaidas posted:

If the standard is "plenty of conservatives will still back him", then yes, :matters:.

For an example of how this could matter: Trump won PA by fewer than 50k votes. 4 of PA's congressional districts are(well, were) in the top 100 districts nationwide for claiming the State and Local Taxes (SALT) deduction. 1 was a Clinton landslide,1 was a narrow (48-48) Clinton win, and 2 went Trump in a landslide. The latter 3 elected GOP congresscritters by a combined margin of about 250,000. Dems went on to win those districts by a combined 200k votes in 2018, but PA's court-ordered redistricting makes that a pretty useless number for district-by-district comparisons... though statewide saw Dems go from a 400k vote loss to a 500k vote win.

So let's look nationwide at districts instead. In an election that saw consistent blue shifts (both in vote share and representation) their biggest gains (for both) were in the top quintile of SALT-claiming districts. Note: the best source I've got on this is linked, Brookings/Urban's tax policy center. Numbers check out best as I've been able to follow it back to the source, but also I'll take a leftier source if anyone has one

These voters, who Trump needs to retain, are among the biggest defectors since 2016. They're also some of the few who saw Trump raise their taxes with the TCJA. Are these the ones who'll be impressed by his low taxes? By the $72m fraudulent return? Or do we think further proof that Trump is a tax cheat might not play so well with these folks?

Stealing this so I can show it to the inevitable "nothing matters" types in my life. I don't think anyone here thinks his true believers will be swayed by this but this poo poo does matter to people who merely voted for Trump thinking he was the lesser of two evils when he ran against Clinton.

Handsome Ralph fucked around with this message at 00:14 on Sep 28, 2020

Xand_Man
Mar 2, 2004

If what you say is true
Wutang might be dangerous


Almost Smart posted:

So if he loses in November, does he try to slog things out in court and hope his crooked justices just hand him the presidency, or does he cut bait and resign so President Pence can pardon whatever he's able to pardon in the meantime? I think he's old enough to drag things out to the point he never sees a day behind bars regardless, but that's not going to help his lovely kids who are also probably up to their balls in tax fraud and other shady dealings.

Trump cheats at golf even if everyone is watching and there's nothing on the line. He NEEDS to be a winner.

Short of the Supreme Court declaring Joe Biden president and Donald Trump Super-Awesome Double President, the only way his rear end is leaving office is when we get drag him out

stillvisions
Oct 15, 2014

I really should have come up with something better before spending five bucks on this.

Almost Smart posted:

So if he loses in November, does he try to slog things out in court and hope his crooked justices just hand him the presidency, or does he cut bait and resign so President Pence can pardon whatever he's able to pardon in the meantime? I think he's old enough to drag things out to the point he never sees a day behind bars regardless, but that's not going to help his lovely kids who are also probably up to their balls in tax fraud and other shady dealings.

I was going to jokingly say "if he loses he'll leave office without a fight if he gets a tax amnesty deal from the IRS", but then I realized I wasn't joking.

He's going to do what every exec about to be ousted does - get himself a golden parachute.

Neo_Crimson
Aug 15, 2011

"Is that your final dandy?"

stillvisions posted:

I was going to jokingly say "if he loses he'll leave office without a fight if he gets a tax amnesty deal from the IRS", but then I realized I wasn't joking.

He's going to do what every exec about to be ousted does - get himself a golden parachute.

Yeah this, either that or continue course and just do his usual legal flailing and drag out any lawsuits against him funded by endless right-wing grift money until he dies.

BigBallChunkyTime
Nov 25, 2011

Kyle Schwarber: World Series hero, Beefy Lad, better than you.

Illegal Hen
Did someone leak them to the NYT, because it doesn't seem like something you could get through a FOIA request.

FizFashizzle
Mar 30, 2005







There's lots of useful stuff in there. You can hammer him on the paying 750 dollars for years because that's an easy number that resonates with your typical low info american. Plus he's going up against a guy who's legit one of the least wealthy senators who's built an image about using trains.

but this is the funniest thing from it all.

https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/1310356254922027010?s=20

"he's deducted more for hair care than the average american makes in a year" is a great line if Biden can remember it.

BigBallChunkyTime posted:

Did someone leak them to the NYT, because it doesn't seem like something you could get through a FOIA request.

it seems that way, since they refused to release them to trump's lawyers in order to protect the source's identity.

Solkanar512
Dec 28, 2006

by the sex ghost

evilweasel posted:

The biggest reason he’s still trying to get re-elected is because that’s what’s happening if he loses.

This is a huge attack line right here.

Also, a friend of mine looked up some average tax rates for 2016. If you had an AGI between $25-50k, your average federal taxes were just over $1,800.

Donald Trump paid $750. That’s a massive hammer to beat someone over the head with.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

BigBallChunkyTime posted:

Did someone leak them to the NYT, because it doesn't seem like something you could get through a FOIA request.

Yes. They specified someone who had “legal access” to them (I.e. not a hacker).

TGLT
Aug 14, 2009

BigBallChunkyTime posted:

Did someone leak them to the NYT, because it doesn't seem like something you could get through a FOIA request.

Yeah. We don't know who though.

"In response to a letter summarizing The Times’s findings, Alan Garten, a lawyer for the Trump Organization, said that “most, if not all, of the facts appear to be inaccurate” and requested the documents on which they were based. After The Times declined to provide the records, in order to protect its sources, Mr. Garten took direct issue only with the amount of taxes Mr. Trump had paid."

MadDogMike
Apr 9, 2008

Cute but fanged

Groovelord Neato posted:

The IRS also shouldn't be giving anyone a check in the tens of millions of dollars (poo poo it'd be crime if it was in the hundreds of thousands).

Uh, having professional experience with the IRS I'm not willing to put a ceiling on how bad they might screw up so I'm not for limiting repayment as a rule (and if people had paid some of the ludicrous IRS bills I've seen the IRS WOULD have owed them 6 figures back when fixed), but in Trump's case you'd think they'd be more skeptical, yeah. I half suspect it's because he's had the lawyers to keep dragging this thing out compared to most people who'd have been hit with audits that this thing is still going, it's also one of those scenarios (abandonment of a business interest) where there's a lot of hay to be made on what happened. Add in the Republicans have hacked away at the IRS's ability to investigate (which, surprise surprise, means they audit more poor people than rich ones because it's cheaper) and of course him taking over as president and you get the mess the NYT describes.

stillvisions posted:

I was going to jokingly say "if he loses he'll leave office without a fight if he gets a tax amnesty deal from the IRS", but then I realized I wasn't joking.

He's going to do what every exec about to be ousted does - get himself a golden parachute.

I don't know if you can get "pardoned" from owing the IRS, it's not actually criminal per se unless fraud is alleged (which probably is TRUE, but the audit doesn't depend on that anyway). They could make it so the IRS can't charge him and put him in prison for the lying, but I don't think you can casually waive collection, at least in any way that an incoming different administration couldn't overrule.

Medullah
Aug 14, 2003

FEAR MY SHARK ROCKET IT REALLY SUCKS AND BLOWS

Solkanar512 posted:

This is a huge attack line right here.

Also, a friend of mine looked up some average tax rates for 2016. If you had an AGI between $25-50k, your average federal taxes were just over $1,800.

Donald Trump paid $750. That’s a massive hammer to beat someone over the head with.

I decided I didn't hate myself enough so I popped into /r/AskTrumpSupporters and as expected there's responses ranging from "NYT has more made up anonymous sources" to "Good, he understands taxes are too high, that's who I want working for me" to "he's a real estate magnate, they all have tax returns that look like this"

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound

evilweasel posted:

Yes. They specified someone who had “legal access” to them (I.e. not a hacker).

My guess is somehow this is due to the various Deutsche Bank litigations recently.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

The man with Golden Toilet Seats definitely paid all of his taxes.

Mr Ice Cream Glove
Apr 22, 2007

https://twitter.com/katieporteroc/status/1310348444112949249?s=20

Oxyclean
Sep 23, 2007


Why can someone cheat on their taxes and be president but people in Florida can't vote if they haven't paid unspecified fines?

(This is mostly rhetorical.)

Chimp_On_Stilts
Aug 31, 2004
Holy Hell.

Oxyclean posted:

Why can someone cheat on their taxes and be president but people in Florida can't vote if they haven't paid unspecified fines?

(This is mostly rhetorical.)

I know it's rhetorical, but it's worth acknowledging that there's multiple classes of crimes in this country.

The class of crimes committed largely by wealthy educated professionals in suits is punished at a much lower rate and severity than crimes committed largely by poor, working class, and desperate people.

If you're a banker and you find a crooked way to ratfuck ten thousand people out of a thousand dollars each you'll be better off legally / punishment wise than someone who breaks into one house and steals a thousand dollars.

I will be shocked - shocked - if Trump ever experiences any punishment for tax malfeasance. If anything, there's millions of people who will view it as simply "being smart", "outsmarting the system", "being good with money", etc., even if the actions were objectively against the law.

If you stole $10,000 out of your local school's bank account, you'd go to jail. If you illegally avoid $10,000 in school taxes, lots of people are going to think you're a smart good business person.

Chimp_On_Stilts fucked around with this message at 00:39 on Sep 28, 2020

Mat Cauthon
Jan 2, 2006

The more tragic things get,
the more I feel like laughing.



Chomposaur posted:

I absolutely know folks who thought he was a successful businessman. I think part of his appeal was that he'd come in as an outsider and run the country like a cutthroat businessman, cut hard deals with other countries, etc.

Growing up in NJ, there was definitely more general awareness of his scummy failed business poo poo, but I reckon to a lot of people he was just The Apprentice Guy who had his name on a lot of buildings and projected success.

Yeah I grew up in DE where we were close enough to see and feel the ramifications of his lovely business practices firsthand but it seems like people outside the East Coast didn't really have a sense of who he was until the Apprentice blew up.

Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:

Silly question but how do you owe 100 million to IRS and not have them at your front step

Be rich.

Mr Ice Cream Glove
Apr 22, 2007

https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1310346559649968132?s=20

Angry_Ed
Mar 30, 2010




Grimey Drawer

Wasn't this story not even real/accurate because it comes from the Republicans recent investigation which actually did more to expose even more shady Trump dealings?

Lumpy
Apr 26, 2002

La! La! La! Laaaa!



College Slice

Almost Smart posted:

So if he loses in November, does he try to slog things out in court and hope his crooked justices just hand him the presidency, or does he cut bait and resign so President Pence can pardon whatever he's able to pardon in the meantime? I think he's old enough to drag things out to the point he never sees a day behind bars regardless, but that's not going to help his lovely kids who are also probably up to their balls in tax fraud and other shady dealings.

He drags it out until he dies and leaves it for his family to clean up, which they do badly, and Eric somehow goes to jail over it. It's the Trumpiest thing possible.

sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth

Angry_Ed posted:

Wasn't this story not even real/accurate because it comes from the Republicans recent investigation which actually did more to expose even more shady Trump dealings?

I think it was that thing where she paid a firm that hired Hunter that money and like...yea no poo poo Hunter's also corrupt but that's a pretty huge difference than 'this oligarch literally cut Hunter a check' yea.

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

this is rich considering the nyt tax expose also linked trump business deductions for "consultants" directly to ivanka, and presumably jr. and eric. so tax fraud on business deductions and on dodging the gift tax in some hosed up fraud wombo-combo

I AM GRANDO
Aug 20, 2006

Do you think that he accepts that he’ll be dead inside of ten years because of his terrible health? I’m divided on him just thinking about it as the inevitable end to his hedonism that he doesn’t really care about because it’s more than five minutes into the future and him refusing to believe that he’ll ever die as he apparently believes that he is in the best health of his life and looks better than he ever has.

stillvisions
Oct 15, 2014

I really should have come up with something better before spending five bucks on this.

MadDogMike posted:

I don't know if you can get "pardoned" from owing the IRS, it's not actually criminal per se unless fraud is alleged (which probably is TRUE, but the audit doesn't depend on that anyway). They could make it so the IRS can't charge him and put him in prison for the lying, but I don't think you can casually waive collection, at least in any way that an incoming different administration couldn't overrule.

I mean yes, but that hasn't stopped Trump before from trying, has it?

Even if this election is decisive against Trump, he can make things really bad for the lame duck period, and things could get really ugly. He's going to have demands for a smooth (well, relatively smooth) transition of power to happen and for him not declare to his followers this is a coup and to act accordingly.

If he has any point of contest over the election, he's gonna use it, and that leaves the US with two options - drag him bodily out from office and a possible armed revolt happening, or he shakes Biden's hand and waddles out the door. You know he's gonna try and negotiate something to stop him from doing the former.

November to January is gonna be a hell of a ride no matter who wins, but especially if Trump loses. The only hope is he's not equipped to actually full on sabotage things and his handlers will quietly smile nod and hope he forgets.

Technowrite
Jan 18, 2006

I first battled the Metroids on Planet Zebes.
I feel like people are forgetting how much Trump stands to make post-presidency. Speaking fees will get him out of debt.

Youth Decay
Aug 18, 2015

FizFashizzle posted:

There's lots of useful stuff in there. You can hammer him on the paying 750 dollars for years because that's an easy number that resonates with your typical low info american. Plus he's going up against a guy who's legit one of the least wealthy senators who's built an image about using trains.

but this is the funniest thing from it all.

https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/1310356254922027010?s=20

"he's deducted more for hair care than the average american makes in a year" is a great line if Biden can remember it.
Also you know Trump is going to have to preface his rebuttal with "well I think my hair looks great doesn't it look great" because he is so loving vain.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Technowrite posted:

I feel like people are forgetting how much Trump stands to make post-presidency. Speaking fees will get him out of debt.

Obama couldn’t make that much by 2022.

Zoph
Sep 12, 2005

Technowrite posted:

I feel like people are forgetting how much Trump stands to make post-presidency. Speaking fees will get him out of debt.

There's no way he crawls out of a half-billion hole on speaking fees.

sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth
he's just not gonna pay it

Mr Ice Cream Glove
Apr 22, 2007

He still has to pay that little girl patriotic dance troop

funkymonks
Aug 31, 2004

Pillbug

sexpig by night posted:

he's just not gonna pay it

If the IRS seized a Trump property to pay off this debt, which one do you think would piss him off the most?

Wark Say
Feb 22, 2013

by Fluffdaddy
Also remember that he has stiffed the bill on (likely) every single one of his rallies from 2017 to date.

funkymonks posted:

If the IRS seized a Trump property to pay off this debt, which one do you think would piss him off the most?
Mar-A-Lago or Trump Tower NY.

Angry_Ed
Mar 30, 2010




Grimey Drawer

funkymonks posted:

If the IRS seized a Trump property to pay off this debt, which one do you think would piss him off the most?

Mar-a-lago because I imagine it's his home address now.

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

Wark Say posted:

Also remember that he has stiffed the bill on (likely) every single one of his rallies from 2017 to date.

is that just the policing cost for host cities, or does that include contractors and vendors?

an AOL chatroom
Oct 3, 2002

Chomposaur posted:

Growing up in NJ, there was definitely more general awareness of his scummy failed business poo poo, but I reckon to a lot of people he was just The Apprentice Guy who had his name on a lot of buildings and projected success.

Also grew up in NJ and comparing someone to Donald Trump was a well-worn schoolyard insult used against dim-witted spoiled kids who moved into the new construction McMansions.

TwoQuestions
Aug 26, 2011

stillvisions posted:

I mean yes, but that hasn't stopped Trump before from trying, has it?

Even if this election is decisive against Trump, he can make things really bad for the lame duck period, and things could get really ugly. He's going to have demands for a smooth (well, relatively smooth) transition of power to happen and for him not declare to his followers this is a coup and to act accordingly.

If he has any point of contest over the election, he's gonna use it, and that leaves the US with two options - drag him bodily out from office and a possible armed revolt happening, or he shakes Biden's hand and waddles out the door. You know he's gonna try and negotiate something to stop him from doing the former.

November to January is gonna be a hell of a ride no matter who wins, but especially if Trump loses. The only hope is he's not equipped to actually full on sabotage things and his handlers will quietly smile nod and hope he forgets.

I'd be much more scared if he had the military's loyalty, but he doesn't, and the nation's police are (by design) not collectively organized enough to pull off a coup, and his cultists are too cowardly to put up serious resistance. You'll have some lone-wolf attacks which will be scary, but I very much doubt he'll be able to pull off some kind of mass violence enough to stay in power.

This isn't to say he couldn't get a 6-3 decision saying Democrats are illegal, but he's simply not staying in the Big Chair through violent means.

Jet Jaguar
Feb 12, 2006

Don't touch my bags if you please, Mr Customs Man.



When my tax bill for 2016 came due, I got hosed so hard by it. I somehow KNEW that I was paying more than Trump at that point. Nice to know that I was right.

Schoolteachers have to pay for their own supplies and this orange turd can write off millions in business losses for years? That's going to burn really bright for some voters.

Also, if he'd just taken his inheritance and put it into a money market account, he would be so much better off than he is right now. He's a lovely businessman. He's failed at everything he's ever done. The next step in his routine is to declare bankruptcy and walk way, which is what he'll do after he loses the election.

Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

Judakel posted:

"That makes me smart!" Why bother wasting your time on this when you could talk about the pandemic?

People knew he wasn't paying a million dollars, but people didn't know that he was paying less than what a minimum wage worker pays (which is about $1809 for a single job minwage worker)/

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PerniciousKnid
Sep 13, 2006

Technowrite posted:

I feel like people are forgetting how much Trump stands to make post-presidency. Speaking fees will get him out of debt.

Half a bil in speaking fees from people he has blackmail on.

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