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For the sake of arugment, I am going to assume that I am right and that JC, Cloner and Hawke are ALL town. I am really sure RF is town, and I am sure that I am town. I believe we should be looking for scum amongst the remaining players. I'm going to reread: B- Cheese DGK GG Hal Sandwolf And let's see what I can try to deduce.
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Oct 1, 2020 12:05
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| # ? Apr 19, 2024 20:47 |
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OK, B- is null, I can't tell poo poo from his posting
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Oct 1, 2020 12:09
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I think Cheese is scum, I will revisit this later and see if I can put some flesh on the gut read.
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Oct 1, 2020 12:13
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DGK is scum too
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Oct 1, 2020 12:16
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GG town
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Oct 1, 2020 12:17
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Hal was a tough read, I vacillated a lot on his posting, leaning scummy, but not in any way confident in that read.
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Oct 1, 2020 12:21
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Sandwolf feels town
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Oct 1, 2020 12:24
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OK, my top picks for scum are definitely Cheese and DGK, I am going to go back and see if I can make some sort of case to back up my gut reads from rereading their posts, but I need to have lunch first.
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Oct 1, 2020 12:25
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Maaaaybe Hal and/or B- on the scumteam too
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Oct 1, 2020 12:26
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cheese sandwich posted:Cloner, same to you - could you expand on this? What changed that made you feel okay about Hawke? It's not so much that I feel 'okay' about Hawke, I still think he's a bit sus but I do feel way better about him than I initially did. I played a game with him only once, and if I recall correctly his posts always pinged me even though there was nothing solid there to actually go by (same goes for bminus). I thought deadline was last night and when I realised it wasn't, I figured I've got even more time to weigh everything up so was happy to unvote. The whole thing about handing out guns with messages on them etc gave me pause, too. It struck me as strange that my result said that Steak didn't have a gun if Hawke had given him one, but I did mention in the thread that perhaps the gun was given to him after the investigation (ie, night action orders). I think John Cena is either making a very elaborate fake-claim or there's something different about his role compared to mine. I mentioned a couple of times that I think perhaps he can detect killers that don't use guns. This could be an SK or someone who uses poison (especially given Steak died after poisoning). This would give him a positive result on people that I'd get a negative result on. Whether he can detect killers without guns... I don't know. Whilst I am cautious of JC's claim, he has played a PR since the start, and other people say they've had night time interviews. I worry that cuddling him would leave us in a worse position if his claim is true. There is something oddly strange about Sandwolf's posts that ping me, too. I outlined some reasoning in my post here. Sci also made an interesting post here. Granted, this was before the madness that became apparent recently but I still think they are valid points. At this point in time, I think that Sandwolf is the one I'm most comfortable voting today.
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Oct 1, 2020 12:27
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Cloner of the Elks posted:I think John Cena is either making a very elaborate fake-claim or there's something different about his role compared to mine. I mentioned a couple of times that I think perhaps he can detect killers that don't use guns. This could be an SK or someone who uses poison (especially given Steak died after poisoning). This would give him a positive result on people that I'd get a negative result on. Whether he can detect killers without guns... I don't know. Whilst I am cautious of JC's claim, he has played a PR since the start, and other people say they've had night time interviews. I worry that cuddling him would leave us in a worse position if his claim is true. typo: whether he can detect killers WITH guns
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Oct 1, 2020 12:29
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OK, so Cheese. I feel like his early casing of GG was very low hanging fruit. He gos after GG in a way that makes me think that Cheese saw an easy target to look like he was scumhunting. cheese sandwich posted:A) I got kind of annoyed when people cased me on being too reasonable in my last game as scum but I kind of get it looking at this. It looks like he's responding more to being called scum than actually thinking what he's talking about is scummy, for an early d1 read responding to what looked like a joke this is super overexplained and walks back calling out a scum slip by presenting a narrative and starting it on the fence. cheese sandwich posted:That he needed to write a narrative in his second game post to explain the vote in his first is scummy. It shows a p large amount of self awareness wrt how he’s perceived. cheese sandwich posted:This is minimizing the situation imo. Fmpov at least I'm not voting you because you voted too early, I'm voting you because you treated what I initially assumed wasn't a serious vote as serious and then tried to write a narrative after the fact overrationalizing it. Then there's the interaction with DC that I hate: cheese sandwich posted:It's early in the game but Dead Cow is pinging me as lurky scum also. cheese sandwich posted:your call out was more of a poke. Hawke calls him out on this, and Cheese immediately accuses him of being scum but tellingly stops short of voting him, for fear of being accused of an OMGUS: cheese sandwich posted:This is a bad post. Then, in the midst of the Amni/Tommu fight, he decides to go off on a tangent on DGK, which I think is scummy. Instead of putting down a solid opinion on the merits of either Tommu or Amni, he decides to vote someone who has no realistic chance of being executed AN HOUR BEFORE DEADLINE. I will come back to this notion in my case against DGK, too. His reluctance to vote Amni also feels forced: cheese sandwich posted:This is basically the most amni thing he could do if he believed the 3p claim. cheese sandwich posted:I feel like it's more likely tommu is a jester at this point tbqh. cheese sandwich posted:You're acting like this isn't exactly what Amni does every time he's presented with a 3p. cheese sandwich posted:K well I don't see the day going any other way at this point. ##vote amni Then when D2 starts, Hawke votes for him again, and again, Cheese defends himself by calling Hawke scummy but not voting for him, again excessively self-conscious of not looking like an OMGUS: cheese sandwich posted:This is a bad vote because it ignores the point I was making in the post that he was quoting here re sng and (ironically being a fox news game) makes it's own pull on the context to try to make it seem like I was doing something scummy in explaining a read on sng. This is opportunistic white knighting and I do not like. cheese sandwich posted:This is bullshit, and what dead cow is calling "good analysis". One of them is scum. cheese sandwich posted:##vote binus cheese sandwich posted:We're losing a lot of daylight on this and I don't know if it's just late or because there's ample distractions but people don't seem into binus. ##vote dc These points make me think Cheese is scum
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Oct 1, 2020 13:27
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I'll do DGK in a bit, and then I want to focus on their interaction, because once you start thinking that they're both scum, there is a LOT of what looks very much like bussing
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Oct 1, 2020 13:27
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What initially got me was DGK's hyperdefensive behaviour around the Amni vote:DGK2000 posted:##vote Amnistar DGK2000 posted:Maybe if you read my loving posts you would see where I didn't feel he was playing his town game. DGK2000 posted:It's as if I said something much earlier in the day, without waiting for a swing, because I had a suspicion. But you go right ahead. Now, to read this, you might think that DGK had posted some sort of extensive case about Amni, or posted multiple times interacting with him, calling him out for what he considered disingenuous reads. In fact, this is all he had up to that point. DGK2000 posted:I agree with your point on Amnistar, he feels off to me this game. He's not latching onto things and it reads to me like he's self-conscious about it. This misrepresentation of the justification is scummy, because it's overstating something, and he really didn't need to do it. If he weren't self-conscious about appearances, this over-defensive display simply wouldn't have taken place. When Tommu seriously claims TP, DGK does what Cheese also did: moves his target to someone who has no realistic chance of being executed with LESS THAN AN HOUR TO GO: DGK2000 posted:##vote Cheese let's make this sandwich And again, despite having tried to claim that he's thought Amni is scummy all day, their is a forced reluctance to the deadline vote: DGK2000 posted:##vote amnistar yeah I don't want a NL but would happily still pursue my case. There's some seriously conflicting messaging on DGK's D1 posting, and it's scummy. Then onto the DC execution, DGK votes for her after seeing which way the wind is blowing, but again over-eggs the pudding: DGK2000 posted:Yeah it feels a bit opportunistic. DGK2000 posted:You've been setting up since D1 for this to try to push him. DGK2000 posted:She's been shading him all game, looking for an opportunity to get him piled on. Now that deadline is approaching she drops a vote on him? Yeah that seems like leaping at an opportunity. DGK2000 posted:Yeah she just kinda... went after binus. DGK2000 posted:Yes, you were dripping suspicion and snipes at him. You found a reason to move off of cheese and just went at binus. I think DGK's reasons for voting for flipped town players have been trumped up and over the top, and performative in their exaggerated surety. I hate them.
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Oct 1, 2020 13:54
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Hal is giving me scum vibes based on how nice he’s being tbh. Still would vote cheese or DGK first
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Oct 1, 2020 14:07
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I’ll respond to that later when I’m not on a phone but face value it looks like a large amount of effort to distract from Cena & Hawke’s claims which very clearly conflict with each other. Sci are you scum  here I thought I had a good read on you this game that I’m wondering about now.
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Oct 1, 2020 14:09
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I did find it a little strange that dgk solidified his town read of me after her learned who I visited n1. I’m not really sure how that is a tell. I could be scum visiting town, town visiting town or town visiting scum. Unless dgk has extra information about my n1 target I don’t see how he can be certain of my alignment
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Oct 1, 2020 14:09
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I believe Cena’s claim because I was told I answered an easy question. Cena claiming otherwise is probably due to him or mod slopping
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Oct 1, 2020 14:11
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If anything happens to me in case there are guns flying around I claimed to gumball in mason chat shortly after I felt confident he was town N1 and he has all of my results. I have reason to suspect there’s some kind of fuckery involved with them too anyways that he is aware of.
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Oct 1, 2020 14:14
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Which leads me onto something rather more tenuous, but that I couldn't help feeling as I reread DGK and Cheese. Bussing. A lot of bussing. If you start with the supposition that these two players could be scum, then there are a very large number of posts that fit that supposition so well that it becomes difficult to ignore. With an hour to go, when DGK has no realistic chance of being executed: cheese sandwich posted:Hm. ##vote dgk cheese sandwich posted:To add context to this, if you look at his history it's mostly snipey bs. He's sidelining hard and then getting hot about it when he gets called on emptyvoting the vote leader. Immediately stops pushing when D2 starts, almost like it wasn't a real read at all! Little snipe around the DC vote: cheese sandwich posted:This feels more opportunistic than the binus vote. Part of why I'm preferring binus rn. Immediately stop pushing when D3 starts, almost like it wasn't a real read at all! Cheese is currently voting Hawke, but he's made sure to let us all know that he also thinks DGK is scummy, just not actually scummy enough to vote or push properly: cheese sandwich posted:DGK & binus are still good votes imo. Backburner for today. So Cheese has ostensibly thought DGK is scummy for literally the whole game, but not scummy enough to vote for when it might actually do something, or push a case on when it might actually achieve something. How does DGK feel about Cheese? First mention: DGK2000 posted:I feel like yeah, it's an easy push onto a newbie [by cheese]. Then, when it really doesn't loving matter at all, 45m from deadline, he goes in hard: DGK2000 posted:Easy push onto newbie, check. D2, after ostensibly trying to force a last minute switch to Cheese, DGK obviously continues his casing and pushed Cheese in a strong way as an early candidate: DGK2000 posted:Feeling pretty good about it being cheese. I also think RF is scum. Only when someone else chimes in to say that maybe Cheese is a good candidate does DGK move back onto him. Could it be that he didn't want to start a push, but when one looked like a possibility he also wanted to get in there early? DGK2000 posted:Yup, I still feel pretty good about the case on him. BUT THEN: DGK2000 posted:Yeah it feels a bit opportunistic. Let's look at this vote in context... At the time, Cheese (who, let's remember, DGK says he thinks is scum) was vote leader: votefinder posted:Votecount for Day 2 DC moved her vote off Cheese to bring him down to 4 votes, and with two hours to go, DGK realises that he can change the complexion of the game by abandoning his Cheese "push" for bad reasons which have already been covered. If he really thought Cheese was scum, the timing of this is very strange. It move Cheese from vote leader with 5 and looking like a solid candidate and flips it to DC being tied with GG at 4 votes each. And again, as we go into D3, there is no mention of Cheese. What I see here is a repeating pattern with both these players of gently pushing each other when there's no chance of an execution, but backing off when they could actually prosecute their cases. Again and again they vote for each other when the vote is meaningless, don't follow-up when it could have an effect, and in the most egregious happening, DGK actively moves off the person he claims to have thought as scum all game at exactly the moment when moving off him shifts momentum away from Cheese and onto another player.
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Oct 1, 2020 14:17
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cheese sandwich posted:I’ll respond to that later when I’m not on a phone but face value it looks like a large amount of effort to distract from Cena & Hawke’s claims which very clearly conflict with each other. Cena seems a bit unclear on what his role actually is so it’s hard to say if they do directly conflict, I think Cena having a flavor-heavy role and Cloner having almost the same role with virtually no flavor is a bit harder to reconcile
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Oct 1, 2020 14:19
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Earlier, I feel into the trap of relying on night actions to try to solve the game, something I chastise other players for doing all the time. If we look at posting, and try to deduce alignments from posts and flips, I think DGK and Cheese are both very likely scum.
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Oct 1, 2020 14:21
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Mr. Humalong posted:There will be several different roles in this game, I really don't think we can take any claims or actions at face value.
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Oct 1, 2020 14:24
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On balance, I think I slightly prefer to vote for DGK, because the timing of the shift from Cheese to DC is really terrible ##Vote DGK
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Oct 1, 2020 14:26
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Scientastic posted:Earlier, I feel into the trap of relying on night actions to try to solve the game, something I chastise other players for doing all the time. I’m sorta feeling the same way, DGK had a weird response to the gunsmiths. He has basically claimed some sort of watcher/tracker role that gave him info that “clears” b- that I’m a little suspicious of Who was it that said they were blocked from an action N1?
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Oct 1, 2020 14:31
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Hal Incandenza posted:Cena seems a bit unclear on what his role actually is so it’s hard to say if they do directly conflict, I think Cena having a flavor-heavy role and Cloner having almost the same role with virtually no flavor is a bit harder to reconcile Between Hawke, Cena, and Cloner it feels like one of the 3 has to be lying. I get leaning on reads more but we have a pretty cut and dry contradiction, Cena insisting Hawke can kill and Hawke just brushing it off as Cena's claim is right but the details are wrong. Cloner and Cena still have the weirdness of similar roles.
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Oct 1, 2020 15:04
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Gumball Gumption posted:a pretty cut and dry contradiction You are ignoring all sorts of roles that could alter either Cena's result, Hawke's alignment appearance, who Cena targeted etc. I feel really incredibly strongly that by assuming that the role madness is just "a lot of roles" and not "roles that can gently caress with results" we are playing into the scum teams hands.
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Oct 1, 2020 15:39
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fwiw, all of my actions have been successful
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Oct 1, 2020 15:46
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SHALASHASKA HAWKE posted:I believe Cena’s claim because I was told I answered an easy question. Cena claiming otherwise is probably due to him or mod slopping Hrm according to Cena you should have got a HARD question not an easy one
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Oct 1, 2020 16:03
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I could go for dgk
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Oct 1, 2020 16:11
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where is sandwol
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Oct 1, 2020 16:24
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This is a well thought out post and really does make me think twice about DGK. Sci, previously you thought Sandwolf was scum, now you think he's town. What was the tipping point for you, was it anything in particular or just his response to the discovery of gungate?
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Oct 1, 2020 16:33
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Cloner of the Elks posted:This is a well thought out post and really does make me think twice about DGK. It was the reasoned response and his behaviour around the whole thing, he didn’t appear to be trying to capitalise or foment the chaos, he appeared like he was genuinely trying to understand
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Oct 1, 2020 16:35
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Hal Incandenza posted:Hrm according to Cena you should have got a HARD question not an easy one I just had a look at what Hawke originally claimed, and his wording is exactly the same as mine, down to the modifiers used, I believe him completely now.
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Oct 1, 2020 16:39
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If Cena is telling the truth about the mechanics of his role, it sounds like his result was hosed with, because there’s no way Hawke’s using that exact phrasing is a coincidence.
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Oct 1, 2020 16:40
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Scientastic posted:If Cena is telling the truth about the mechanics of his role, it sounds like his result was hosed with, because there’s no way Hawke’s using that exact phrasing is a coincidence. Alright that seems reasonable for now
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Oct 1, 2020 16:52
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##vote DGK his play is suspect and he could even be telling the truth about his role because scum watcher/tracker is very plausible in a role-heavy game. Assuming that is what he’s claiming of course but it sure sounds that way B- if you are around does it make sense that if DGK knew who you visited he’d be convinced you were town?
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Oct 1, 2020 16:54
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Scientastic posted:If Cena is telling the truth about the mechanics of his role, it sounds like his result was hosed with, because there’s no way Hawke’s using that exact phrasing is a coincidence. hawke says he received my question but it was softball, and hawke was my intended target so i dont think redirection happened. i could have been driven insane maybe. i wont discount all possibilities
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Oct 1, 2020 17:00
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Sorry I had some sadbrains last night I’m reading up now
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Oct 1, 2020 17:01
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| # ? Apr 19, 2024 20:47 |
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JOHN CENA posted:hawke says he received my question but it was softball, and hawke was my intended target so i dont think redirection happened. i could have been driven insane maybe. i wont discount all possibilities Sci doesn’t this directly implode your supposition that one of Hawke/Cena isn’t lying?
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Oct 1, 2020 17:02
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