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Shirkelton
Apr 6, 2009

I'm not loyal to anything, General... except the dream.

Tezcatlipoca posted:

There's this thing called footwork which enables a fighter to take steps ~*~to the side~*~.

Yeah and Gaethje will have to do that whether he's going forward or backwards, but if he goes backwards, Khabib's going to press him into the cage significantly easier.

You don't win fights by doing half of your opponent's job for them.

Barboza moved back, and to the side, and Khabib pivoted in place like a dumbass and it still didn't make much difference. If Gaethje wants to play a patient game against Khabib he could put his lights when Khabib crosses up his feet and turns after him, especially with his left hook, but it's the complete opposite of how Gaethje's found most of his success and better counter-strikers have already tried and failed.

Shirkelton fucked around with this message at 01:48 on Oct 21, 2020

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Brut
Aug 21, 2007

chaleski
Apr 25, 2014

Looks like he's got a fun night planned

Orange Carlisle
Jul 14, 2007

That guy definitely fucks

Orange Carlisle
Jul 14, 2007

up everyone he fights

CommonShore
Jun 6, 2014

A true renaissance man


:siren:NOTE THAT THIS HAS AN IRREGULAR START TIME. THE MAIN CARD STARTS AT 1PM CST AND THE PRELIMS AT 9:30 CST I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE IF I GOT THIS WRONG FOR YOUR TIME ZONE CHECK IT YOURSELVES BY GOOGLING “UFC 254 TIME” YOU LAZY SHITS

This card gets a bit then as it goes down, but I’ll be happy to drink nice coffee and watch it and then have a whole lot of my afternoon and evening still ahead of me afterwards.

Main Card
:supaburn:Lightweight Championship Unification Bout Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Justin Gaethje
Where to begin? Khabib is an extremely undefeated dominant champion in before “Tibau” and like Anderson Silva before him manages to look even better in every bout. His last time out he made then interim-champ Dustin Poirier look like he had no idea how to fight when in fact Poirier is extremely good at fighting. Meanwhile in Gaethje’s last bout out he put a violent wrecking on Tony Ferguson, snapping t-ferg’s 12 fight winning streak. Before that Gaethje had a rockier run to the title, coming into the UFC with a lot of momentum as an undefeated World Series of Fighting champion, but then being knocked out by Eddie Alvarez and Poirier before getting his rhythm with a few good wins.

Khabib is an extraordinary aggressive wrestler with standing KO power

(edit: there has been some disagreement on this claim, and I'll confess that his power likely exaggerated in my memory since his standing KO of Thiago Tavares is pretty much the first Khabib highlight that comes to my mind because that's when I started following his career as a future great in the making - really Khabib wins most fights by using his wreastling to break his opponents mentally and then finishing them on the ground one way or another, most recently with very painful looking chokes and neck cranks, but the threat of his top game opens up striking opportunities for him otherwise).


Gaethje is an extremely aggressive striker with strong counter wrestling. Khabib is a solid favourite in this because he hasn’t looked vulnerable in years, but Gaethje has the tools to beat him, if he has the game plan and a bit of luck.

Comain Event Middleweight Robert Whittaker vs Jared Cannonier
Former champ Whittaker is working his way back to the top of the heap. In his last bout he took a pretty one-sided decision over Darren Till as his rebound to his KO title loss to Izzy Adesanya. Cannonier DO NOT LOOK AT HIS SOCIAL MEDIA GOD I WARNED YOU moved down to middleweight after a 2-3 run at Light Heavyweight, after a 1-1 run at Heavyweight. He totally wrecked David Branch and Anderson Silva, which, ok whatever, but then he also totally wrecked Jack Hermansson who has been on a tear otherwise.

Whittaker brings skillful but game as gently caress kickboxing with a strong wrestling game. Cannonier brings unbelieveable power and a pretty good wrestling game too. Whittaker is probably the more skilled fighter overall, but don’t sleep on Cannonier’s power – he has KOed UFC heavyweights, and Whittaker has been hittable. The X factor here is that Whittaker hasn’t been booked for a 3 rounder since 2017.

Heavyweight Alexander Volkov vs Walt Harris
A battle for relevance. Volkov is 1-2 in his last three, with losses to Blaydes and Lewis (though he was dominating the Lewis fight until 4:49 of the 3rd, when Lewis killed him) and only a win over Greg Hardy. Walt Harris is coming off of a very quite sad loss to Alistair Overeem, which was yet less sad than his public family tragedies. Before that Harris was on a good run and looking like he was close to being a title challenger.

My assessment is that this fight will depend on Harris’s mental state. He’s probably a better fighter than Volkov right now, if he can be that fighter.

Middlweight Phil Hawes vs Jacob Malkoun
What is this? Neither of these guys have Wikipedia pages. Hawes is an 8-2 former regional champ listed as a wrestler. He won a Contender Series fight in September, and appears to have been a washout on TUF 23. Malkoun is 4-0 and Australian. I can see literally no other relevant information about this fight. It’s beyond me why it’s on the main card of this tentpost event.

Goodpart posted:

I got to see Jacob Malkoun live at Eternal MMA the Friday before UFC 243 and he was so insanely, obviously better than everyone else there. I also don't really know why it's on the main card but perhaps the UFC is pretty high on him? He's Whittaker's teammate which probably factors into things.

Women’s Flyweight Lauren Murphy vs Lilya Shakirova
This was supposed to be a pivotal match between Murphy and Cynthia Calvillo but Covid got her so this is what we get. Poor poor Lauren Murphy sadly represents what a lot of people dislike about WMMA. She’s not a terribly exciting fighter, and she gets through with lots of split decisions and other luck. She even won her Invicta title off of her opponent’s knee just spontaneously combusting. I sometimes feel bad for her. She also has that characteristic that some fighters have where she never looks good, but somehow her opponents always look like total horse poo poo. I’ll give her this – she’s tough and persistent. Shakrivoa is 8-1 and from… what flag is that… Uzbekistan? She has wins in such promotions as BATTLE ON VOLGA.

Light Heavyweight Magomed Ankalaev vs Ion Cutelaba
This is a rematch of a fight where Ankalaev (a 14-1 Russian kickboxer) punched Cutelaba in the head and Cutalaba (a 15-5 Moldovan brawler) insisted that he was only faking being hurt when the ref called a standing TKO. People (and I think Dana?) blamed the ref but gently caress you Ion, play stupid games, win stupid prizes. It’s my honest belief that Ion was one punch away from oblivion and that the ref saved him, and he was just being a punk to try to save face, so my prediction is going to be this fight will end with Ankalaev by 1st round T/KO – what kind of odds will anyone offer to me? I’ll risk 24h

Prelims
Heavyweight Stefan Struve vs Tai Tuivasa
Struve is 7 feet tall and he fights like a 5’10” grappler. Tuivasa is big and Aussie and drinks out of a shoe. Really, Struve should be on a two-fight win streak, but for some reason the ref just kept shrugging at him whenever Ben Rothwell kicked him in the junk. Tuivasa started his UFC run with 3 wins and a lot of charisma, but now he’s running 3 straight losses and he has looked like a stupid rear end in a top hat in two of those fights. Really, Struve should be able to handle Tuivasa quite easily and win this however he wants, but Struve has shown a great ability to squander his physical and technical advantages in new and creative ways in any fight.

Alex Oliveiera vs Shavkat Rakhmonov
Brazillian Cowboy Oliveira is actually the late replacement here, for Elizeu Dos Santos. Cowboy Olivieria is an anyone, anytime, anywhere journeyman and usually good, if not for a good fight, for some entertaining cheating. He has a section on Wikipedia called “Grenade attack on Christmas Eve 2018” and another “Incidents in May 2019.” He’s rangy, has good power, and an aggressive submission game. Rakhmonov is a Kazakh with a 12-0 record and a sweet nickname – “Nomad”. It’s “Cowboy” vs “Nomad”! That owns! Anyway he’s listed as a sambo fighter and he has a 2016 win over “The Iron Turtle” Jun Yon Park, who fought this past weekend. This fight looks interesting, actually. The UFC must think highly of Rakhmonov if they’re giving him opponents like this for his debut.

Light Heavyweight Da Un Jung vs Sam Alvey
I still remember a little bit when Alvey was worth tuning in for. At one point he was an absolute finishing machine, including a 3 fight streak of first-round KOs. Anyway now he’s on a 4 fight skid with lots of lovely awful to watch fights and split decisions. He seems to have power late in his career, but he doesn’t pull the trigger anymore on his offense. Da Un Jung is a 13-2 Korean who is 2-0 in the UFC with stoppages of Mike Rodriguez and Khadis Ibragimov. He has wins by strikes and submissions. I don’t remember either of his fights. He has a 2017 win over an opponent named only Hulk (now 0-1-0), at something called Heat 41

Early Prelims
:siren:140 lb Catchweight Nathaniel Wood vs Casey Kenney
Wood is English and 4-1 in the UFC, somehow managing to be stopped by Dodson in February, but he bounced back with a decision win in July. Casey Kenney is a bit of a hot prospect right now fighting an extremely active schedule and already having picked up UFC wins over Ray Borg and Louis Smolka, among others. His only loss is to Dvalishvili, so that’s pretty good. His fights have been consistently fun.

Women’s Flyweight Liana Jojua vs Miranda Maverick
Jojua (Georgian, 8-3)lost her UFC debut by stoppage to Sarah Moras in 2019, but that was presumably at 135 since there’s no way Moras is making 125 in a million years. She has an arm bar win since then. Miranda Maverick (American, 7-2) won the Invicta FC Phoenix Series 2 Flyweight tournament, which is actually kind of a big deal. She’s a pretty athletic and well-rounded fighter, and I remember having enjoyed her Invicta fights. This could be a good WMMA match

Lightweight Joel Alvarez vs Alexander Yakovlev
Alvarez is a Spaniard who guillotined Joe Duffy in July in a major upset. Yakovlev lost a decision to Roosevelt Roberts and has a prtty mixed UFC record overall bouncing between 155 and 170,though losses to Kamaru Usman, Demian Maia, and an overweight Zak Cummings aren’t the worst. I can’t remember much about his style other than that he’s a wrestley Russian with reasonably powerful hands.

So to reiterate my prediction for this card is that Ankalaev vs Cutaleba will end with Ankalaev by 1st round T/KO – what kind of odds will anyone offer to me? I’ll risk 24h

CommonShore fucked around with this message at 15:44 on Oct 21, 2020

Shirkelton
Apr 6, 2009

I'm not loyal to anything, General... except the dream.
If I remember correctly, I thought that was a pretty bad stoppage, so I'd love to take up the bet, but I also don't think Cutelaba is a very good fighter, so I won't.

Goodpart
Jan 9, 2004

quarter circle forward punch
quarter circle forward punch
quarter circle forward punch
rip
I got to see Jacob Malkoun live at Eternal MMA the Friday before UFC 243 and he was so insanely, obviously better than everyone else there. I also don't really know why it's on the main card but perhaps the UFC is pretty high on him? He's Whittaker's teammate which probably factors into things.

CommonShore
Jun 6, 2014

A true renaissance man


Goodpart posted:

I got to see Jacob Malkoun live at Eternal MMA the Friday before UFC 243 and he was so insanely, obviously better than everyone else there. I also don't really know why it's on the main card but perhaps the UFC is pretty high on him? He's Whittaker's teammate which probably factors into things.

I'll add this to the post so we have some info

LobsterMobster
Oct 29, 2009

"I was being quiet and trying to be a good boy but he dialed the right combination to open the throw-down vault and it was on."

"Walter Foxx is ten times brighter than your bulb at the bottom of the tree merry xmas"
please tell me the fights (multiple) in which khabib has demonstrated his standing KO power

e: ufc fights

Shirkelton
Apr 6, 2009

I'm not loyal to anything, General... except the dream.
hosed Tavares up with that shoddy leap-in uppercut.

Shirkelton
Apr 6, 2009

I'm not loyal to anything, General... except the dream.
Dropped McGregor but it didn't count because McGregor's foot was hurt and he wasn't even training and he woke up hungover or something.

Tezcatlipoca
Sep 18, 2009

Shirkelton posted:

Yeah and Gaethje will have to do that whether he's going forward or backwards, but if he goes backwards, Khabib's going to press him into the cage significantly easier.

You don't win fights by doing half of your opponent's job for them.

Barboza moved back, and to the side, and Khabib pivoted in place like a dumbass and it still didn't make much difference. If Gaethje wants to play a patient game against Khabib he could put his lights when Khabib crosses up his feet and turns after him, especially with his left hook, but it's the complete opposite of how Gaethje's found most of his success and better counter-strikers have already tried and failed.

Barboza has terrible footwork moving backwards and only throws ineffective punches under pressure. The Gaethje of yesteryear you talked about moved straight forward all the time and would be reversed into the fence immediately. While I agree Gaethje wins while pressuring he probably isn't going to unless he can survive moving backwards. Noone has been ablento do that against Khabib.

Shirkelton
Apr 6, 2009

I'm not loyal to anything, General... except the dream.
Also, this conversation just reminded me that Gaethje beat Tony from pillar to post and despite the utterly life-altering violence he inflicted, he was the only one of the two to get dropped, lol.

CommonShore
Jun 6, 2014

A true renaissance man


LobsterMobster posted:

please tell me the fights (multiple) in which khabib has demonstrated his standing KO power

e: ufc fights

I was mostly thinking about the Tavares and McGregor fights as noted. the Tavares fight for me was where I really started paying attention to Khabib's career so it may be a bit inflated in my memory.

LobsterMobster
Oct 29, 2009

"I was being quiet and trying to be a good boy but he dialed the right combination to open the throw-down vault and it was on."

"Walter Foxx is ten times brighter than your bulb at the bottom of the tree merry xmas"
I will be honest, I haven't rewatched the Tavares fight in years, so beyond the vague memory of it ending with GnP that went on far too long, I can't speak to Khabib's standup skills in that one

And I will say that Khabib's striking is a good blend of awkward and quick, especially when he jumps in with uppercuts, casting punches or flying knees, all obviously offset by the threat of his wrestling, that he's more effective than just his raw technique would have you believe

That being said, I still wouldn't count 2 incidents, years apart, only one of which directly lead to a finish as showcasing standing KO power, the same way I wouldn't say Chael Sonnen has a dangerous sub game off his back just because he tapped Shogun with a guillotine

but hell, at this point, im just being a pedantic dweebus

Shirkelton
Apr 6, 2009

I'm not loyal to anything, General... except the dream.
Khabib doesn't really have standing KO power, mostly because his boxing is extremely rudimentary and primarily based around grappling.

At the end of the day, though, who cares, Garth is kicking one of those legs off and beating him up with it.

Untrustable
Mar 17, 2009





Can it just be added to all future OPs that I want a three day probe with funny Arlovski pic every time Arlovski loses? We all know I'm gonna request that it happens anyway.

Brut
Aug 21, 2007

Untrustable posted:

Can it just be added to all future OPs that I want a three day probe with funny Arlovski pic every time Arlovski loses? We all know I'm gonna request that it happens anyway.

He's fighting in like two and a half weeks.

crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*
so whitaker v qanonier ~2 hours after start?

considering getting up at 4am to livepost with you boys

Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



e: now edited to be a full-post, and not a short-circuited brain damaged half thought!

anderson silva talking about his Retirement Fight:

https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/2020/10/ufc-news-anderson-silva-sad-retirement-fight-confirmed-uriah-hall/amp

quote:

“This is the last fight,” Silva told MMA Junkie on Tuesday. “For sure, this is the last fight. Probably. I love the sport. I’ve prepared my mind for this. I’ve prepared for fight my entire life, but yes, this is my last fight in UFC.”

and earlier it says he had two fights left on his deal but Dana somehow talked him into just doing this one fight and retiring? I was expecting him to just peace out to Bellator once this is done, still mostly am, but that sounds weird

Aye Doc fucked around with this message at 09:49 on Oct 21, 2020

BlindSite
Feb 8, 2009

crepeface posted:

so whitaker v qanonier ~2 hours after start?

considering getting up at 4am to livepost with you boys

Yeah I'm in the same boat. The easiest way to check times is to download a betting app - ya know as long as thats not an issue for ya. Usually gambling companies are pretty close to within 5 mins.

Shirkelton
Apr 6, 2009

I'm not loyal to anything, General... except the dream.
They've been going quicker lately, I feel, I'm debating whether I stay up to watch the main fight on the prelims and power through or what.

Flaskraven
Nov 20, 2012

I hope you get crushed to death by a fat guy trying to commit suicide by falling out of a window and when the paramedics answer the local bystander asking if you'll live, he just says "fat chance" and laughs.
Someone posted this to reddit:

Nice early card.

Brut
Aug 21, 2007

https://twitter.com/btsportufc/status/1318839944786415621

Nate Diaz being disrespected in this clip.

Memento
Aug 25, 2009


Bleak Gremlin
I was like "oh cool the card starts at 0500 well I guess I might catch the main if I get up a little earlier than my usual Sunday".

The main card starts at 0500. Maybe I'll still be up on the Saturday night and catch the prelims.

Waroduce
Aug 5, 2008
what is the card timing for saturday? when does the main event start? ESPN says 2PM but is that the undercard or the actual card?

Brut
Aug 21, 2007

Waroduce posted:

what is the card timing for saturday? when does the main event start? ESPN says 2PM but is that the undercard or the actual card?

This is 3 posts above yours.

Flaskraven posted:

Someone posted this to reddit:

Nice early card.

But yeah, since it sounds like you're asking about EST, 2 PM EST PPV, 10:30 AM EST Early Prelims.

Keptbroom
Sep 10, 2009
NextUFC

This site is pretty handy for start times. It should automatically change to your timezone.

You can also click on the fighter names to bring up their Tapology page.

Brut
Aug 21, 2007



This looks so silly.

LobsterMobster
Oct 29, 2009

"I was being quiet and trying to be a good boy but he dialed the right combination to open the throw-down vault and it was on."

"Walter Foxx is ten times brighter than your bulb at the bottom of the tree merry xmas"
Gonna be doing a Genki Sudo retrospective/watch-along Friday night on my PSP-TV synchtube room!

nordichammer
Oct 11, 2013

Waroduce posted:

what is the card timing for saturday? when does the main event start? ESPN says 2PM but is that the undercard or the actual card?

Any times posted for a card will refer to main card unless it specifies otherwise

CommonShore
Jun 6, 2014

A true renaissance man


I updated my claims about Khabib to add a disclaimer and some clarification to what I said.

mewse
May 2, 2006


"We don't do fights that don't make sense" says the mastermind who orchestrated mcgregor/mayweather. It sounds like he's parroting something Joe Silva would have said 10 years ago

Brut
Aug 21, 2007

mewse posted:

"We don't do fights that don't make sense" says the mastermind who orchestrated mcgregor/mayweather. It sounds like he's parroting something Joe Silva would have said 10 years ago

Eh, "We" in that sentence is the UFC and that fight was not in the UFC, also everything I've heard tells me that Dana begrudgingly agreed to that fight once a truck of money was backed up to his house, rather than being the mastermind of it.

kimbo305
Jun 9, 2007

actually, yeah, I am a little mad
Was the UFC a co-promoter in McGregor x Mayweather?

blue footed boobie
Sep 14, 2012


UEFA SUPREMACY
I didn’t realize Gaethje/khabib was at 2pm and that’s a total bummer. When you have a family blowing off a whole Saturday afternoon to drink beer and watch guys beat the poo poo out of each other is a huge ask.

Tezcatlipoca
Sep 18, 2009

CommonShore posted:

I updated my claims about Khabib to add a disclaimer and some clarification to what I said.

Khabib hits hard enough to make guys wary but is not gonna be knocking guys out without throwing his entire body into strikes. His ground and pound is the most punishing poo poo I've seen though.

Kragger99
Mar 21, 2004
Pillbug
UFC 254 Embedded 3: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XqN0OzP32mA

Highlights: Foot fetishists might enjoy Tai Tuivasa's "shoey" training at the start
Cormier wants what's on Khabib's face (funky N-95 mask) at 2:30
Justin's +1 for poster signing is him mom :3:
Bobby Knucks gets Khabib-mask-envy as well at 8:40

Gettin stoked for this PPV...

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Digital Jedi
May 28, 2007

Fallen Rib
That mask makes Khabib more scary and I wasn't sure that's possible.

Also, Mike Perry really is a horrible piece of poo poo
https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/2020/10/ufc-news-mike-perry-domestic-violence-allegations-ex-wife-speaks-out

Edit: Since it's last post on the page

Orange Carlisle posted:

Yeah don't read that story if you don't want to read his very detailed physical abuse, just a heads up to those sensitive to that stuff

Digital Jedi fucked around with this message at 00:21 on Oct 22, 2020

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