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I think it's unlikely that Biden wins Texas, but the fact that he's even competitive there one week before the election makes other unlikely flips seem more possible.
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Oct 26, 2020 16:26
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exquisite tea posted:I think it's unlikely that Biden wins Texas, but the fact that he's even competitive there one week before the election makes other unlikely flips seem more possible. Yeah. I don't believe in a blue Texas, the fact that it's this close is significant in itself.
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Oct 26, 2020 16:27
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letthereberock posted:Does anyone have a good counter to the argument “the polls are wrong because Trump voters are hanging up on pollsters / lying to pollsters to troll everyone. Just you wait until Election Day!” Bigger question. Why bother countering that argument? Just say “sure ok 👌” and set a reminder to come back to that person on nov 4th.
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Oct 26, 2020 16:34
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I suspect the "shy Trump voter" theory of polling has less to do with people actively trolling by saying Biden than Trumpers simply not answering the phone call or responding to the survey. Either way, eh.
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Oct 26, 2020 16:37
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We still don't know the weighting he assigns to different polls yeah? He could be including them but not in any meaningful way
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Oct 26, 2020 16:41
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Zwabu posted:I suspect the "shy Trump voter" theory of polling has less to do with people actively trolling by saying Biden than Trumpers simply not answering the phone call or responding to the survey. Either way, eh. Trump voters are so shy they also aren’t donating money or turning in their already requested absentee ballots at the same rate as Dems. Anxiously awaiting the political science theory that explains how making your candidate look less popular than they actually are benefits them.
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Oct 26, 2020 16:42
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Nieuw Amsterdam posted:Trump voters are so shy they also aren’t donating money or turning in their already requested absentee ballots at the same rate as Dems. They're purposefully doing it to own the libs, Trump is going to get $10 billion in donations on November 2nd.
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Oct 26, 2020 16:43
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Nieuw Amsterdam posted:Trump voters are so shy they also aren’t donating money or turning in their already requested absentee ballots at the same rate as Dems. "The libs will be even more owned and the media/polls further discredited if they think they are winning in a landslide only to lose to Trump again because we all hid our support of Trump." is how the self-rationalization goes.
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Oct 26, 2020 16:45
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I am permabraindead Trump supporter libowner58...
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Oct 26, 2020 16:46
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Wow, early vote turnout has already exceeded 60 million with a week left to go. Could get up to 90 million over the weekend.
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Oct 26, 2020 16:46
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Nieuw Amsterdam posted:Trump voters are so shy they also aren’t donating money or turning in their already requested absentee ballots at the same rate as Dems. I tried to make a kajagoogoo reference and gave up
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Oct 26, 2020 16:47
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I wonder if I'm even allowed to cease thinking about the election a week away 24/7 like I almost have been. It's like I'm trying to enjoy a twitch stream or game all afternoon but my subconscious keeps telling me beware.
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Oct 26, 2020 16:48
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exquisite tea posted:Wow, early vote turnout has already exceeded 60 million with a week left to go. Could get up to 90 million over the weekend. What was the total turnout last time?
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Oct 26, 2020 16:48
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I can see Trump losing and doing a scam where he collects money for recounts only to keep it all.
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Oct 26, 2020 16:48
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Phlegmish posted:What was the total turnout last time? About 130 million
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Oct 26, 2020 16:49
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Ok Comboomer posted:I tried to make a kajagoogoo reference and gave up Too shy? Hush, hush.
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Oct 26, 2020 16:49
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Xombie posted:About 130 million Nearly half that already, pretty impressive.
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Oct 26, 2020 16:49
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Not only is a “partisan” poll like PPP consistently far more in agreement with other polls but they don’t broadcast on twitter blatantly partisan propaganda by not only promoting Republicans but literally MOCKING other pollsters. The fact that Nate basically equates the two is insulting on a fundamental level. i believe the problem with PPP is that there has been strong suspicion they herd their results to be consistent with other polls.
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Oct 26, 2020 16:50
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brugroffil posted:No, but it sends a pretty clear "it's okay to support Trump" signal so it's another reason to be skeptical of "shy trumper" narratives Hypothetically, at least, the base could make the shy Trumper shyer, though, too. There could be somebody who likes Trump but sees the base with the "Lock them up" chants and not wearing masks because they want to see liberal tears and talking about how Biden's a socialist who hates America, and that person could say to themselves "Well, I like Trump, but I don't want people to think I'm one of THOSE people", and keep quiet about it out of embarrassment. I don't think that's what's going on here, but it's a possibility.
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Oct 26, 2020 16:50
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LegendaryFrog posted:"The libs will be even more owned and the media/polls further discredited if they think they are winning in a landslide only to lose to Trump again because we all hid our support of Trump." is how the self-rationalization goes. I also think there is a cult aspect where Trump came from behind last time therefore Trump has to be behind in order to win. There’s also four years of underwater approval ratings to rationalize away.
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Oct 26, 2020 16:51
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bobjr posted:I can see Trump losing and doing a scam where he collects money for recounts only to keep it all. Ah the old Jill Stein switcharoo.
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Oct 26, 2020 16:52
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Zwabu posted:I suspect the "shy Trump voter" theory of polling has less to do with people actively trolling by saying Biden than Trumpers simply not answering the phone call or responding to the survey. Either way, eh. Pollsters would still be able to notice if Republican response rates were plummeting or suspiciously large numbers of Republican respondents were defecting, but neither of these things are happening. If there's a shy Trump effect it's pretty small.
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Oct 26, 2020 16:53
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So my prediction is that Biden will win handily, but maybe not by quite as much as polls have been saying.
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Oct 26, 2020 16:54
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Straight White Shark posted:Pollsters would still be able to notice if Republican response rates were plummeting or suspiciously large numbers of Republican respondents were defecting, but neither of these things are happening. If there's a shy Trump effect it's pretty small. You'd also see Republican Senate and Congressional candidates running ahead of Trump in the individual states/districts. Not this time. They're right with or slightly behind him.
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Oct 26, 2020 16:55
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I really doubt Biden takes Texas, he only seems to pull into a tie when Trump's numbers drop a little; Biden's consistently stuck in the high 40s and seems unable to crack 50%. The situation reads to me like ambivalent Trump supporters going between "Trump" and "undecided" who will probably come back to Trump by election day. Maybe we'll get lucky and Trump's voters won't turn out or something.
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Oct 26, 2020 16:59
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Epicurius posted:Hypothetically, at least, the base could make the shy Trumper shyer, though, too. There could be somebody who likes Trump but sees the base with the "Lock them up" chants and not wearing masks because they want to see liberal tears and talking about how Biden's a socialist who hates America, and that person could say to themselves "Well, I like Trump, but I don't want people to think I'm one of THOSE people", and keep quiet about it out of embarrassment. I don't think that's what's going on here, but it's a possibility. It's not really a realistic possibility, because this same effect would have a two-pronged effect: 1.) Make people decide not to vote for Trump, obviously. A candidate being so toxically unpopular that people are afraid to voice their opinion would also be someone that people don't want to vote for. In this case, the "shy voter" isn't likely to end up voting that way, because they already have a negative view of the candidate themselves. 2.) It would only occur in places that don't matter. Red state voters are not shy about voting for Trump because their neighbors agree with them. Blue state Trump voters might be shy, but it doesn't matter anyway because it's a blue state. In a swing state, having such immense unpopularity for Trump as to make the Trump voters shy already signals that Trump is losing that state. In this case, the "shy voter" is already being outvoted, making them irrelevant. The "shy voter" effect is, even theoretically, not meaningful even if it does exist. It necessarily implies that the candidate is already losing. If they weren't losing, the social pressure against supporting them wouldn't exist. Xombie fucked around with this message at 17:03 on Oct 26, 2020 |
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Oct 26, 2020 17:00
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Phlegmish posted:So my prediction is that Biden will win handily, but maybe not by quite as much as polls have been saying. I'm actually going the other way: polls will underestimate the final result as most polling firms continue to over-correct from 2016.
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Oct 26, 2020 17:03
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Daduzi posted:I'm actually going the other way: polls will underestimate the final result as most polling firms continue to over-correct from 2016. We'll see! I'm also not sure whether the positive signs for Biden will lead to his supporters becoming more fired up or more complacent.
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Oct 26, 2020 17:05
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Part of me thinks some Republicans are boycotting the election, preferring to win by violence than votes. Then I remember they aren't that subtle, and are saying the polls are wrong rather than pining for gunfire.
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Oct 26, 2020 17:07
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If any year results in being ahead resulting in complacent voters I don’t think it will be 2020. I almost wonder if the opposite will happen, where Trump is low enough where his softer support doesn’t turn out like they could. He might not have a lot of soft support, but enough to make some states matter more.
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Oct 26, 2020 17:07
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Like I wasn't traumatized to the same extent as others in 2016 (in part thanks to elections like 2014 and 2010) but my brain still has that anxious feeling in the back going 'you can imagine how stressed and panicky you'll be on election night' and I don't know how to avoid that.
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Oct 26, 2020 17:10
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bobjr posted:If any year results in being ahead resulting in complacent voters I don’t think it will be 2020. Biden has been polling within single digits of red states Trump won by over 20 points in 2016, so there does appear to be some universal enthusiasm shift.
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Oct 26, 2020 17:11
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Daduzi posted:I'm actually going the other way: polls will underestimate the final result as most polling firms continue to over-correct from 2016. I'm in the same boat. I really see this as a landslide
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Oct 26, 2020 17:17
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I still think that trauma has caused people to blow up Trump's performance in 2016 in their memory relative to reality. He only had 260 EV's in states he won by more than 1%, and Florida (29 EV) by only 1.2%. He eked out the win by the skin of his teeth, entirely on the back of "I don't like Hillary, so eh let's roll the dice". I don't think he would have won that election with his level of support a month after inauguration, in our hellscape 2020 I think it will be a blowout that even the polls aren't predicting. Only white men are still with him, and even the educated ones are abandoning ship. Covid voing and the shift of the suburbs are going to get around the GOP's voter suppression apparatus. Abject hatred of Trump is going to shatter voting participation records that the polls simply aren't tuned for. Xombie fucked around with this message at 17:22 on Oct 26, 2020 |
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Oct 26, 2020 17:19
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Xombie posted:I still think that trauma has caused people to blow up Trump's performance in 2016 in their memory relative to reality. He only had 260 EV's in states he won by more than 1%, and Florida (29 EV) by only 1.2%. He eked out the win by the skin of his teeth, entirely on the back of "I don't like Hillary, so eh let's roll the dice". same. the fucker is like an hour or so away from me right now saying poo poo like this. https://twitter.com/KevinlyFather/status/1320755996038344705 https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1320753506995810306 the stocks are making GBS threads blood AGAIN and now he is telling a swing state to die because he hates that wolf did the right thing. trump barely won because of a mix of factors that all held together and blew the right way and he got lucky. now all of that shits gone. Dapper_Swindler fucked around with this message at 17:29 on Oct 26, 2020 |
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Oct 26, 2020 17:27
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bobjr posted:If any year results in being ahead resulting in complacent voters I don’t think it will be 2020. All it takes is 2-3% in some very specific areas to either not show up for him or to vote for Biden to make this turn into a landslide the size of Bush 41 in 1988.
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Oct 26, 2020 17:28
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Dapper_Swindler posted:same. the fucker is like an hour or so away from me right now saying poo poo like this. https://twitter.com/KevinlyFather/status/1320755996038344705 https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1320753506995810306 the stocks are making GBS threads blood AGAIN and now he is telling a swing state to die because he hates that wolf did the right thing. On the heels of the 60 minutes interview where he berated Leslie Stahl...gee wonder why women don’t like him 
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Oct 26, 2020 17:29
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https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1320756848325263360
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Oct 26, 2020 17:30
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Dapper_Swindler posted:same. the fucker is like an hour or so away from me right now saying poo poo like this.
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Oct 26, 2020 17:31
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Dapper_Swindler posted:same. the fucker is like an hour or so away from me right now saying poo poo like this. https://twitter.com/KevinlyFather/status/1320755996038344705 https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1320753506995810306 the stocks are making GBS threads blood AGAIN and now he is telling a swing state to die because he hates that wolf did the right thing. trump barely won because of a mix of factors that all held together and blew the right way and he got lucky. now all of that shits gone.
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Oct 26, 2020 17:31
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